Mafia 78: WTF IS THE THEME? Game Thread.

[Crackleslap]

kel: Monkz 1
Danner: Largehorn 1
Monkz: dupti, reticence, danner, xanjori, Kryllian, List, Marack 7

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

The town of Bumblescum was discussing back and forth getting angry at people discussing what could be going on and whose to blame. Finally they decided that Monkz was the burden of the town. Monks has been lynched! With 2 minutes to spare!

Monkz playing Tom Brady has been lynched!

Tom Brady - Fukn Patriots QB piece of sh*t. Goddamnit!

Role : VT

Alignment Town

Win condition: Town survives to the end

Night ends 24 hours from, actions please.

[Graeham]

Here's a bump!

[Crackleslap]

It was an eerily cold night in the town of Bumblescum, the feeling of dread encompassed the town. The people knew something terrible was about to happen! When was the mystery. BANG! BOOM! Another 2 residents fall. The town wakes up to find a South Korean popstar shot exactly once through the heart. The poor Lopsided Tree was also exploded to smithereens!

Allowyn playing Lopsided Tree a VT has died!

Lopsided Tree - Exactly what your name is.

Role : VT

Alignment Town

Win condition: Town survives to the end

Aureli playing Han Sang-hyuk a VT has died!

Han Sang-hyuk - You're part of some Kpop group? I don't know. Why are you here? I don't know!

Role : VT

Alignment Town

Win condition: Town survives to the end

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[listo95]

... ... ... Who killed my hyukkie!?!?!?

[Kryllian]

I'm assuming the Aureli kill was a vig so thank you.

[listo95]

So that post was supposed to be all caps cause I'm enraged!!!

[Kryllian]

So Allowyn as a (I'm assuming scum) kill is a bit surprising. I would have thought they would leave a non-voter alive...

[PalawinFC]

I'm assuming the Aureli kill was a vig so thank you.

I had the same thought. Sk and mafia would want afk player alive.

5 town dead so far is a real problem.

I assume we started with 4 mafia, or the game would be over. Right? If they had 5 we can't lynch them.

This is probably lylo.

[Danner]

Oh boy. That is depressing. I banked it all on Monkz being scum, but I guess that gamble failed hard. And with it, I fear I may have lost us the game. It'll be a heavy uphill battle from here.

With 15 players, I would have supposed this game had 5 scum in it.

We now know that there are no 5 scum aligned, or this game would already be over. So either there is almost no power roles around (meaning the mafia is smaller), or we have two mafia teams.. or something very ugly like a cult is about.

If we assume the kill on Aureli is a vigilante kill (and I cannot see why scum would kill Aurieli), there has only been one scum NK going on. The two scum team (or even mafia + SK) possibility is very small as a result.

But even the kill on Allowyn is hard to classify as a scum NK. Why kill Allowyn over dupti/reticence? Even the kill of Graeham kinda feels like a shot in the dark.

Either way, I agree this is probably LyLo. Ideally we should have one more mislynch to work with, but with the double death last night, that may or may not be the case anymore. There is no reason for the cop not to claim at this point.

Unfortunately... I'm not it. (non-spoiler alert!)

If this is a small mafia, I'm still thinking either dupti or Largehorn are reasonable candidates. Allow me to add Reticence to that. But if we really have a cult or something like that, it does change how I would profile scum significantly.

Would like to hear from the cop TBH.

[dupti]

Alright, let's go back to my post yesterday, with Monkz flipping it is pretty much confirmed that this is a case of town pushing hard for a policy lynch.

D1:
Monkz: Reticence, Palawin, Danner
Danner: Allowyn, Monkz,
-> Graeham votes on Arialla
-> Palawin unvotes Monkz.
-> Monkz unvotes Danner and votes on Arialla. At this point Monkz is at 2 votes and Danner 1. Since Monkz flipped town he wasn't trying to deflect. Overall deflection seems pretty unlikely at this point, unless Danner is scum and his team expected the votes to end up on him, since Monkz did gain more support during their discussion. Doubtful.

What this means is that the train on Arialla was started by town (Graeham and Monkz), so mafia did not have to deflect which means they could do whatever they wanted to d1. It also means that Danner isn't necessarily scum, at least not for the reasons I provided yesterday (deflection).

- - - Updated - - -

As for where to go, I'm actually in a bit of dilemma as I don't really have any town reads. As of right now I don't really think any of us has done anything to warrant a town read.

On one hand I want to give Largehorn a town read because of his play yesterday. He defended Monkz and pushed on Danner before I started the Monkz wagon. When he voted on Danner, there were 3 votes on kel (Kryllian, Marack and Monkz), so if he was attempting to deflect, why not go for Marack, who several players had called out and already had a vote on him from Ret, rather than Danner who I had just called a town read d1?
On the other hand, Ret kind of forced Largehorn into the Danner/Monkz pool earlier and his vote on Danner came as a response to Ret's questioning. Another possibility is also that Largehorn is scum with Marack, in which case he obviously did not want to join that train. There were a couple of other votes out at the time, like mine at listo but it wouldn't have made much sense for him to join that.

- - - Updated - - -

Also if the cop has checks still alive he should probably claim yes. Doc should however not claim.

- - - Updated - - -
@Danner, are you still here?

[Danner]

I am here now. Was invited to cake all of a sudden, and that dragged out. Not going anywhere for the rest of the weekend.

I like your post Dupti. You have the same key players involved here that I have on my list: Reticence, Marack, Largehorn... and yourself. Add me to the mix as well, obviously - despite my four day hiatus from the game.

My slight and not very solid town read on you is not as strong after Monkz flipped town - but I really like your post above me. Not sure if it really evens out, but I kinda still don't want to lynch you. I do distrust Reticence a bit more at this point though, but again - not the player I want to lynch right now. Largehorn is also sailing up though, but Marack also is right there looming. If neither of you four are scum, then I am officially wearing a dunce hat for the next game - or this game is quite different from what I think it is. On the other hand, if all four of you are scum, then I believe we should just officially resign.

I am however mostly leaning towards the option that most scum are just leaning back and letting town destroy itself. The business with Monkz was a town vs town affair, and there was no reason for scum to get involved. Less vocal players on that matter seems more suspect to me at this point. But given that both Arialla and Aureli flipped town, we are then pretty unlucky in getting to that category of scum. Still - Xanjori, Listo and Kel are good candidates.

Leaving Kryllian and Palawin. I must admit my metagaming-senses lean Palawin as town until this game gets a lot smaller - but I kinda think Kryllian did dodge a bullet on D1. Being one who unvoted him, I am not really sure what to think about that. Was I somehow manipulated? I do not think so...

[dupti]

Hm, by the way Danner since you brought this up yourself, what do you think about the fact that you, me and Ret are still alive?

[Danner]

I am alive due to being the lynchbait. Easy answer. I mean, I am the one responsible for getting Monkz lynched, I've not played my usual game due to disappearing for four days, and yeah. you see where that is heading as well as I do, I believe.

You and Ret, yeah that's where things are fuzzy. I can see how Graeham being f.ex a random NK.
But a NK on Allowyn? That seems weird. The profiling suggests either you or Ret are scum, and keeping the company either to blend in better, or just for the challenge.

However; I am not able to shift out the idea that something is wrong with my assumption of the setup.

[Reticence]

I think I'm going to start here, again:

Vote: Marack

Hm elaborate plx, I get the impression I missed something.

Apologies. I meant to reply to this that day phase, but the days have been starting and stopping at awkward times for me.

I think you touched on a few parts of this in the interim, but basically it came down to an intersection of theories and observations:

- Theory: Marack is scum, as elaborated on before.
- Theory: Monkz or Danner is scum, as elaborated on before.
- Observation: Marack and Monkz are opposed based on their D1 interaction.
- Observation: Monkz and Danner are opposed based on their interaction.
- Observation: Danner and Largehorn are opposed, unmentioned at the time.

Opposed, in this context, does not mean that they must be on opposite teams, but that if there is scum between them, there is probably only one. I had the option of pursuing my theory on Marack or joining you in pursuing the theory on Monkz/Danner, and I was comfortable with the latter because it had ramifications for the first. That is, if Monkz flipped scum, then it would disprove my theory on Marack and give me a bit of trust for both him and Danner.

Then there's the observation related to Largehorn, specifically his fixation on Monkz and Danner. If both Monkz and Danner are town, then there's a fair chance that Largehorn is scum for keeping the focus on the two of them D1 and D2. I would have expected him to help push the Monkz train yesterday, though, unless he felt it would break character to unvote Danner.

What this means is that the train on Arialla was started by town (Graeham and Monkz), so mafia did not have to deflect which means they could do whatever they wanted to d1. It also means that Danner isn't necessarily scum, at least not for the reasons I provided yesterday (deflection).

I understand your reasoning here regarding the Arialla train, but I'm curious about the other points you brought up against Danner yesterday. How do you feel about those in the context of Monkz' flip?

All of above said, the problem with these opposition hypotheses is that they don't actively support theories about players being scum, but rather limit how many of them are likely to be scum at the same time. It's entirely possible that there aren't that many (or any) scum in the web described, which has me sharing Danner's concern that we're all fixated on fellow townies. It's not difficult to believe, given how quiet things have been, that scum would be sitting back if they felt confident in our current trajectory.

[dupti]

I am alive due to being the lynchbait. Easy answer. I mean, I am the one responsible for getting Monkz lynched, I've not played my usual game due to disappearing for four days, and yeah. you see where that is heading as well as I do, I believe.

How are you responsible? I mean I started a wagon on him during the middle of the day because I believed the Arialla lynch was a result of deflection and then a couple of players joined in. Also you can't lynch someone alone, so everyone who voted is responsible. Monkz getting lynched does not make you look worse, in fact it tells us it is unlikely that scum had to deflect d1, which what was I called you out for. The only other thing I called you out for is your weird play this game, but that has nothing to do with Monkz lynch.

I thought you were very town d1. Mainly a character read based around your reaction to his vote. While I did not agree with your read I thought it was a townie reaction. Then you disappeared pretty much for the majority of d2 and I wasn't really too fond of your posts. Basically you chose to ignore Largehorn, who was pushing pretty hard on you + it felt like you were indirectly calling people scum while not wanting to engage them, which to me just felt like you were trying to avoid confrontation.

I also did not like the fact that you said you were okay with moving your vote to kel if you had to, since from your point of view you seemed to (or wanted to) believe that Monkz was scum and he was pushing on kel.

You and Ret, yeah that's where things are fuzzy. I can see how Graeham being f.ex a random NK.
But a NK on Allowyn? That seems weird. The profiling suggests either you or Ret are scum, and keeping the company either to blend in better, or just for the challenge.

However; I am not able to shift out the idea that something is wrong with my assumption of the setup.

Hm here is what I think.

Usually when you are scum you will kill me when you either believe I am going to solve the game or if you think I'm going to lynch you. Since the main thing I pushed yesterday was that there was a scum in you and Monkz and he has now flipped town, I would imagine you would expect me to push on you today. It is obviously possible you couldn't convince your teammates to do it or you had another reason for not doing it, but still. I would've expected scum Danner to kill me at that point.

To comment on the actual NK's, I realise it is going to be a WIFOM but I feel like they did it just to limit information (Allowyn and Graeham hadn't really put out any opinions or had any interactions), especially after that d1. It is however also possible they had tpr reads on them. I'm not sure why some people apparently seem to be so surprised by the kills, at least not now that we know Monkz is town. I actually think they're decent kills because we got pretty much no information from them at all.

- - - Updated - - -

I understand your reasoning here regarding the Arialla train, but I'm curious about the other points you brought up against Danner yesterday. How do you feel about those in the context of Monkz' flip?

I actually just brought it up now. I still find his d2 play suspicious.

[Reticence]

I actually just brought it up now. I still find his d2 play suspicious.

I see that. Good. I was concerned for a bit that you were hand-waving that away.

[dupti]

It's entirely possible that there aren't that many (or any) scum in the web described, which has me sharing Danner's concern that we're all fixated on fellow townies. It's not difficult to believe, given how quiet things have been, that scum would be sitting back if they felt confident in our current trajectory.

Agreed.

To be honest though, this game is pretty weird. You only have 7 posts this game yet you have still contributed, I can remember what you've done and I know where you want to push today. Compare that to someone like Kryllian, he has 35 posts and I can't remember a single thing he has said and I have absolutely no idea what he wants to do.

[Reticence]

Frankly, I keep having to look at the OP to remind myself who's in this damn game.

[Danner]

How are you responsible?

I do not believe Monkz would have been in the headlights at all had I not voted him on D1.

[PalawinFC]

Really need the cop to claim. At this point innocents will help us narrow it down and avoid a mislynch today.
@Reticence you've pushed Dupti a lot this game. Do you think he is town?