UK MP's overwhelmingly back article 50 bill

[Kalis]

Do you have a link to that, i´d like to read about it.

I read it in the Guardian, of all places.

As I have pointed out numerous times on these forums, the London financial services sector is hugely important to the EU. That means they can't afford to fuck it up to punish Britain and will have to grant it special status in negotiations. It doesn't take a genius to guess where the Tories will focus their negotiation demands.

The talks of Cologne or Paris becoming the new European financial centre are a pipe dream, they won't have the ability to do that for decades, if ever. They simply don't have the maturity of market or infrastructure in place to cope with what London deals with.

[Mayhem]

I read it in the Guardian, of all places.

As I have pointed out numerous times on these forums, the London financial services sector is hugely important to the EU. That means they can't afford to fuck it up to punish Britain and will have to grant it special status in negotiations. It doesn't take a genius to guess where the Tories will focus their negotiation demands.

The talks of Cologne or Paris becoming the new European financial centre are a pipe dream, they won't have the ability to do that for decades, if ever. They simply don't have the maturity of market or infrastructure in place to cope with what London deals with.

No doubt in that, i am curious about the current laws that have to be changed for this to be possible and if member countries can veto a change. The thing is the ECB is very much against a country not part of the euro-zone dealing with euro based derivatives and i have a hard time seeing it being in the hands of a country that´s not even a member of the EU.

London might get passporting rights.

[Deleted]

As I have pointed out numerous times on these forums, the London financial services sector is hugely important to the EU. That means they can't afford to fuck it up to punish Britain and will have to grant it special status in negotiations. It doesn't take a genius to guess where the Tories will focus their negotiation demands.

There is just one problem: the ECJ.
If you are going to have an integrated financial market, you require having one set of rules, and one arbiter - There will be no deal that will not involve the UK doing what the EU tells it to do in regards to regulations.

[Kalis]

No doubt in that, i am curious about the current laws that have to be changed for this to be possible and if member countries can veto a change. The thing is the ECB is very much against a country not part of the euro-zone dealing with euro based derivatives and i have a hard time seeing it being in the hands of a country that´s not even a member of the EU.

London might get passporting rights.

Who knows how it will pan out, but which country is going to be the one who demands that London doesn't get special treatment and veto a deal? Even Germany might consider leaving the EU then.

[ranzino]

I read it in the Guardian, of all places.

As I have pointed out numerous times on these forums, the London financial services sector is hugely important to the EU. That means they can't afford to fuck it up to punish Britain and will have to grant it special status in negotiations. It doesn't take a genius to guess where the Tories will focus their negotiation demands.

The talks of Cologne or Paris becoming the new European financial centre are a pipe dream, they won't have the ability to do that for decades, if ever. They simply don't have the maturity of market or infrastructure in place to cope with what London deals with.

if any, it's Frankfurt, not Cologne.
and UK should make up its mind. Brexit also means London's downfall as financial centre unless a lot of Brexit is negotiable.

[Kalis]

There is just one problem: the ECJ.
If you are going to have an integrated financial market, you require having one set of rules, and one arbiter - There will be no deal that will not involve the UK doing what the EU tells it to do in regards to regulations.

It is unlikely May would agree to that, the EU will have to be flexible or risk fucking itself up. The EU has lost an economically important member state, they can't afford to be inflexible, or they'll tank Europe and then see the EU disintegrate.

[Gully Man]

Do you have a link to that, i´d like to read about it.

Think they might be referring to this.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKBN15J0GL


Edit: Nevermind, completely misread the post. It's of the same topic in any case.

[Mayhem]

Who knows how it will pan out, but which country is going to be the one who demands that London doesn't get special treatment and veto a deal? Even Germany might consider leaving the EU then.

There´s a difference between special treatment and giving up a good portion of influence about your currency. That´s a ~2.3tn euro market we´re talking about here and the ECB will fight tooth and nail to get their hands on that and that it´s taken away from london and as far as i´m aware, the rights to that are bound to EU membership.

So it´s not really which country will be against this, but rather which country will be for this, apart from the UK, for obvious reasons.

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Think they might be referring to this.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKBN15J0GL

Yeah, this is only about passporting and i don´t disagree with that being on the table.

[Kalis]

if any, it's Frankfurt, not Cologne.

Neither are relevant.

and UK should make up its mind. Brexit also means London's downfall as financial centre unless a lot of Brexit is negotiable.

Brexit does not mean that, this is an error that people have made because they thought the EU held all the cards. London will be a financial centre for as long as any of us are alive and well beyond that, it is one of the top two financial centres in the world.

[Deleted]

It is unlikely May would agree to that, the EU will have to be flexible or risk fucking itself up. The EU has lost an economically important member state, they can't afford to be inflexible, or they'll tank Europe and then see the EU disintegrate.

Which is why however much sense a deal would make, one wont happen.
There is already open warfare in regards to financial regulations, its not going to get any better once the UK leaves the EU.
well the EU always have the option of letting the City do business in the EU as long as they follow EU rules and just neatly ignoring whatever the UK thinks.

[Kalis]

They have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit though. The UK has always retained the sovereignty to determine it's own immigration policies and procedures, even as part of the EU.

So the UK could call a halt on Eastern European immigration into the UK then? Perhaps you should have told the EU that, I am sure they will be fascinated by your take on the matter.

[Deleted]

Neither are relevant.



Brexit does not mean that, this is an error that people have made because they thought the EU held all the cards. London will be a financial centre for as long as any of us are alive and well beyond that, it is one of the top two financial centres in the world.

And one of the reasons it is that, is because of its position as the financial centre of Europe - If that ceases to be, it would hurt them.
Its like you are suggesting NY would just be fine and dandy as a world financial center if California said no mas and left the US.

[ranzino]

Which is why however much sense a deal would make, one wont happen.
There is already open warfare in regards to financial regulations, its not going to get any better once the UK leaves the EU.
well the EU always have the option of letting the City do business in the EU as long as they follow EU rules and just neatly ignoring whatever the UK thinks.

how un-Brexit-ish !

[Kalis]

Which is why however much sense a deal would make, one wont happen.
There is already open warfare in regards to financial regulations, its not going to get any better once the UK leaves the EU.
well the EU always have the option of letting the City do business in the EU as long as they follow EU rules and just neatly ignoring whatever the UK thinks.

They have to make a deal, the Germans will demand they do. Germany can't afford to prop up the entire EU if there is no access to London's financial markets, you are talking an economic disaster that would dwarf the issues Greece had.

Unless the EU wants to introduce bartering chickens as an economic model, it is in their interests to make a deal that London is happy with.

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And one of the reasons it is that, is because of its position as the financial centre of Europe - If that ceases to be, it would hurt them.
Its like you are suggesting NY would just be fine and dandy as a world financial center if California said no mas and left the US.

New York would continue as a financial centre and the most important one in the Americas. You can't replicate the infrastructure or market in a few years somewhere else, it would take decades to implement and still have to compete during that time.

[Mayhem]

I mean, talking as if London can´t be replaced is kind of wishful thinking? What about it can´t be replaced? How much of what we´re talking about here are private companies and how much is actually part of the UK government?

[Deleted]

They have to make a deal, the Germans will demand they do.

Okay this one really needs to die:
A, Germany does not have the power to do that.
B, Germany prioritizes the stability of the EU way more than the UK.
The whole 'Germany this or that' just explains everything that's wrong with the UK notions regarding brexit.

Germany can't afford to prop up the entire EU if there is no access to London's financial markets, you are talking an economic disaster that would dwarf the issues Greece had.

The EU isn't propped up by loans.

New York would continue as a financial centre and the most important one in the Americas. You can't replicate the infrastructure or market in a few years somewhere else, it would take decades to implement and still have to compete during that time.

No one is saying the UK will cease to be a financial centre, they are saying it will be hurt.

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I mean, talking as if London can´t be replaced is kind of wishful thinking? What about it can´t be replaced? How much of what we´re talking about here are private companies and how much is actually part of the UK government?

The city is a series of banks, funds, insurers, accountants, and lots more that provide any sort of financial service you might need, its not one company, or one industry, its a whole Eco-system.

[Mayhem]

The city is a series of banks, funds, insurers, accountants, and lots more that provide any sort of financial service you might need, its not one company, or one industry, its a whole Eco-system.

And what about that is unique to London? What keeps them from moving to other locations within the EU?

[dribbles]

And what about that is unique to London? What keeps them from moving to other locations within the EU?

A 75% top rate of tax maybe? From todays Sunday Telegraph looks like Paris is off the table as a financial centre.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ve-france-met/

[Mayhem]

A 75% top rate of tax maybe? From todays Sunday Telegraph looks like Paris is off the table as a financial centre.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ve-france-met/

Ok, so paris is out, there are other countries within the EU. I mean in the end they will have to decide if no deal is done, to either move and pay more in taxes or just cut profits since you know they won´t be making any money within the EU anymore.

[Kalis]

Okay this one really needs to die:
A, Germany does not have the power to do that.
B, Germany prioritizes the stability of the EU way more than the UK.
The whole 'Germany this or that' just explains everything that's wrong with the UK notions regarding brexit.

Germany has huge influence in the EU due to its economic power. This isn't an issue that will just damage Germany, nations like Ireland rely on the City as well, but Germany will be the major EU player when it comes to ensuring that EU economic interests are not severely damaged by punishing London.

The EU isn't propped up by loans.

No one is saying the UK will cease to be a financial centre, they are saying it will be hurt.

The EU can't afford to damage the City to any significant extent, because they will be shooting themselves in the foot by doing so and they aren't on a secure enough economic footing to do that.

I mean, talking as if London can´t be replaced is kind of wishful thinking? What about it can´t be replaced? How much of what we´re talking about here are private companies and how much is actually part of the UK government?

You need to find out how the City works to understand your question, that is hours worth of lectures and exams to go through that.