Mafia 79.12.7.1996 Jokpardy

[Danner]

We can agree Crackle must be a jailkeeper, regardless of role right?
He must have blocked Virothe then Me. Its the only way I am still alive.

So the question is whether he is a town jailkeep, a scum jailkeep (or roleblocker), or a culted jailkeep.

If he is mafia, then he blocked his own teams kill last night. That is silly.
If he is an SK on virothe's team, he blocked Virothe's kill twice in a row. That is silly.

I see no way Crackle can be mafia or SK.

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If you believe there's a mafia team out there, who would it be?

Reticence and Kryllian.
But with a minor option on Marack. I cannot rule it out. And as such, I am scared of risking the lynch today.

[Kryllian]

So basically everyone who hasn't claimed TPR and yourself might be scum? Wow...what logic... Why Ret and/or I?

[Monkz]

I agree and disagree.
With no counterclaim, I think it's quite clear that Crackle is JK/RB, yes.

His alignment though? Meh.

[Marack]

You raised that Crackle was scum. I have countered that option.
You raised the premise of a cult. I discard that argument.

The problem is None of this has been proven. Its your thoughts. People dont agree with.

There is still the option that whatever scum we have left has decided against killing the entire game. As odd as it may be, its possible.

[Danner]

So basically everyone who hasn't claimed TPR and yourself might be scum? Wow...what logic... Why Ret and/or I?

I know, right? It's almost like I am advocating to postpone the lynch one day to get more info. Who would've thought! O.o

[Monkz]

There is only 2 ways that Crackle is not a RB/JK.
1: There is a doctor here somewhere, who (god knows why) doesn't speak up.
2: Danner is the godfather with a vest and investigation immunity. That doesn't explain the missing kill last night though. Which sucks.

[Danner]

The problem is None of this has been proven. Its your thoughts. People dont agree with.

There is still the option that whatever scum we have left has decided against killing the entire game. As odd as it may be, its possible.

The cult card is obviously something I cannot disprove. I just don't believe in a cult.

The mafia option however, that logic is solid. Crackle isn't mafia, unless someone else blocked the kill last night. And I don't see a doctor around.

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And Kryllian, I pick you and Ret due to the best constellations. You've not talked much together this game.

[Kryllian]

Vote Danner

It's circles at this point and I'm being kicked out of the building. The cop will be dead after tonight if it's mafia. Unless there is a magic protector out there that hasn't been used. What info are we going to get from delaying the game one more day?

[Monkz]

Anyways there's 6 minutes left, and Crackle/Ret is not here. So a lynch on Danner is not happening. And I find it hard to believe that we can agree on Crackle or Ret within that timeframe.

So I guess it's a no-lynch. But for the record -- I don't think it's the right play

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Vote Danner

It's circles at this point and I'm being kicked out of the building. The cop will be dead after tonight if it's mafia. Unless there is a magic protector out there that hasn't been used. What info are we going to get from delaying the game one more day?

He's basically saying that the game is over with 1 more misslynch. So we might as well lynch someone tomorrow and hope that Crackle can save me tonight (1/4 chance of hitting the killer) and we have another investigation result to aid us.

But that's alot of "if", and that's why I don't like it.

[Marack]

Right now there are 2 votes on danner, so a 3rd would be a mod majority FYI.
@Monkz not sure if you want to do that or not though.

[Danner]

If it really isn't the right play, then I shall take that blame in the postgame.
But if it isn't the right play due to having a cult, then I will just redirect that blame to Largehorn.

Either way, this was a very interesting gameday.

I'm crossing my fingers that Monkz is alive in the morning. Crackle, it's up to you. Don't fsck this up.

[Reticence]

That's cool, Danner. Continue to push your theory without even acknowledging my counter-argument.

I'm not going to lie, Danner -- I've been operating under the assumption that you are town, but this is a little worrisome for me.

Simply put: if I were scum, I would not have wanted you to die after I almost got lynched for trying to lynch you for being scum. You are literally the last player I would have wanted to kill in that scenario. Therefore, if you believe that they targeted you N2, then I am not scum. If you believe that I am scum, then you need to come up with an alternative theory for where that kill went, unless you really want to argue that I'm on a team whose kill is submitted by a player who acted directly against my best interests.

[Danner]

@Marack: Meh.

Looks like this game likley ends tonight then.

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That's cool, Danner. Continue to push your theory without even acknowledging my counter-argument.

I _do_ hear what you are saying. Keep saying that.
I'm not able to explain N2 myself. I do not really believe I was targeted on N2 either.

WTB more info.

[Largehorn]

No lynch (2) - Crackle (#230), Danner (#252)
Danner (2) - Marack (#258), Kryllian (#268)

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

No one was lynched on Day 4.

It is now Night 4. The deadline for Night 4 is February 15 22:00 Eastern.

[Graeham]

Here's yet another bump!

[Largehorn]

Once again, there hasn't been a death in the night.

So now it's Day 5. The deadline for Day 5 is Friday February 17 at 22:00 Eastern.

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Kryllian]

Allright @Danner the ball is in your court. You wanted a NoLynch and you got it. What does this tell us that it didn't tell us yesterday?

[Reticence]

I'll take the blame for the no-lynch. Initially, I got caught up in something at work and barely made it back before deadline. Then I saw how quickly votes piled on Danner. It felt a little familiar, and a little disconcerting.

Frankly, I balked, and I couldn't convince myself that lynching him was better than a no-lynch in the minutes I had before time ran out. Hopefully it was for the best.

I _do_ hear what you are saying. Keep saying that.

I do owe you an apology for this, too, as I did not convey my frustration very well in the limited time I had before deadline.

I acknowledge that you heard me the first time and responded. To clarify, what I found disturbing were your responses to me:

As in; I hear what you say, but I am not sure if I can use that to determine your allegiance or even motivation.

I find it concerning that you can't. I gave you actual, logical reasoning as to why that scenario doesn't make any sense, and you waved it away as if it has no bearing on anything. Regardless of how little you claim to personally care for that theory, it's the one you have and it's the one you have been pushing. I present a logical counter-argument against it and you can't factor that into your read?

Cue post (#243). Bearing the relevant events of D2 in mind, I wanted to make sure that I properly explained myself before I got on your case about it, so I reiterated my argument and even boiled it down further for you: if you subscribe to the theory that you were hit N2, then you must acknowledge that it makes no sense for me to be on board with targeting you. In fact, it makes perfect sense that someone would attempt to kill you N2 in order to set me up for a lynch on D3 based on our altercation.

Earlier, you made the argument that targeting you for a kill doesn't make sense, as you should have been kept alive as lynch-bait. I disagree, for two reasons:

• I ran head first into a brick wall of resistance trying to get you lynched, and almost got lynched in return for my efforts. That means that players' opinions had already aligned enough to make you difficult to go after during the day. Unless those players included non-Virothe-aligned scum, then by definition, that made you not lynch-bait on N2.

• You and Virothe were starting to form a voting bloc, and even I was coming around to the idea that you were not scum. Bear in mind that he was not outed yet, so unless you want to argue that the remaining scum are on his team, then this is kind of a big deal. A voting bloc of two or three players in a game of nine is not something that they can ignore.

With those points in mind, you have to be willing to consider that you were actually a high profile kill target on N2, with the added benefit of making me look absolutely terrible if you flipped town. You really think scum wouldn't want to take advantage of a 2-for-1 special of removing both you and me, given our history of working together? If anything, I would find it more suspicious if we discovered that you weren't targeted N2.

Regardless, it's at this point that you stopped discussing this with me, even though you kept posting about me:

• (#249) You say that apparently nobody is the Doctor, which means that you read (#243), but you didn't reply to it.

• (#252) / (#267) You insist, again, that I am scum, even though you haven't yet offered an alternative theory for night actions.

And this is where my frustration boiled over, because I honestly could not help but wonder if you were deliberately ignoring me in favor of pushing your agenda against me.

As for not talking to Kryllian much, I won't argue that. I had a small exchange with him about a weird theory he put forward about Monkz on D3 (#193), and that's about it. He was a minor town read for me for much of the first few days, and my attention has been understandably elsewhere: Graeham, you, Virothe, you, etc. I also haven't interacted with Crackleslap much, admittedly.

Unless I missed something, though, your first direct post to Kryllian was... (#229), I believe, less than a day before this last deadline. It was almost immediately after that post, actually, that you really started pushing the theory that the two of us were on the same team. So you’re about as guilty of this as I am.

I'm not able to explain N2 myself. I do not really believe I was targeted on N2 either.

This doesn’t really compute for me.

• We have a claimed jailer who says they targeted you that night. You believe him.

• You insist on a mafia scenario over a cult one, so you think we have a missing kill for that night.

• We don’t have a Doctor claim.

• We have no inexplicably-failing night actions from our claimants, so we can only speculate at a roleblocker until one flips or someone announces that their action failed.

Not even factoring in the D2 situation, you being attacked N2 is just the strongest theory right now. Factoring it in, you being attacked N2 actually makes sense, if you’re town.

The only thing that makes your stance make sense to me is confirmation bias based on residual distrust from our D2 altercation, that you are so invested in being right about me that you are downplaying the information you have and putting stock in alternate theories that you have yet to define because doing so makes everything better fit your perception of reality.

If that’s true, and you’re really town, then you need to knock it off. We’ve seen this before, when Dendrek and I butted heads in the West Wing game. Neither of us could post without the other taking it in the worst possible way, and we took days to recover from that, much to our detriment.

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Allright @Danner the ball is in your court. You wanted a NoLynch and you got it. What does this tell us that it didn't tell us yesterday?

Well, Monkz is alive, so if he got a result we either lynch the guilty or set the innocent aside in the possibly-investigation-immune pool.

And there was no kill, so Crackle tells us who he jailed and we probably lynch them because they were probably blocked.

I'm still undecided on how good of an intentional play it would have been, but we may have gotten lucky with it.

[Kryllian]

To have blocked the kill 4 nights in a row (let alone a double kill with an SK) is statistically incomprehensible to me. If Crackle did so. I will bow down and praise their greatness and name as a protector of town in future games!

More likely this is a cult we are facing AND there is a good chance Monkz and/or Crackle are now converted. So I will be hesitant to follow them blindly.

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What do you mean the push on Danner felt disconcerting? Unlike other last minute discussions he was actually here to defend himself and provided opportunity to do so until time ran out.

[Reticence]

What do you mean the push on Danner felt disconcerting? Unlike other last minute discussions he was actually here to defend himself and provided opportunity to do so until time ran out.

When I was pulled away, we were discussing theories and the merits of a no-lynch versus lynching you, me or Marack. I came back to a train on Danner.