Flynnghazi: Justice Dept. warned WH that advisor vunlnerable to blackmail.

[Breccia]

And there will be no escape for the President, this time.

Eh, there might be. I still don't see the GOP going forward with a much-needed investigation here. They don't have their tax plan signed yet.

That said, if Flynn leaves, can one of the competent people get on the NSC? I hear the Joint Chiefs or DNI are good options.

- - - Updated - - -

I'd be interested to hear anyone argue that says Flynn acted on his own without direction from Trump.

Flynn already has.

[Felya]

I'm surprised it took this long for a majority scandal to happen in Trump's administration

Not happen, but stick. This isn't even the first of Trump's camp to resign due to Russian ties:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Manafort

[belleflop]

Flynn already has.

When someone decides to to be the fall guy, of course THEY are going to admit it was only them. I'm talking about your opinion. Do you think he wasn't being directed? Like I said, this information and answers to this will come out eventually. I just want to understand trump supporters train of thought here.

It sounds like for you at least, Flynn admitting he was the sole conspirator is enough for you. *washes hands* done?

[Felya]

I think Putin would vote for Pretraeus. The KGB/FSB still loves to put out a good ole Honeypot.
Anna Chapman is looking for work...
According to her instagram and interview by Julian Assange on RT, she's a huge Trump fan.

Yeah she is:

“Trump is a politician who has the backing of forces just as influential as those behind Clinton,” she captioned a photo posted eight weeks ago. “The only difference is that they like to keep a low profile, because their vision of the future world order means a revolution in U.S. foreign policy. And after that revolution happens, there will be no room for people like Clinton, who has blood on their hands.”

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/...nstagram-trump

[Breccia]

It sounds like for you at least, Flynn admitting he was the sole conspirator is enough for you. *washes hands* done?

I meant nothing of the sort. My earlier posts in this very thread will back that up.

But yes, he's trying to be the fall guy here. The GOP will accept it. Just watch.

[Felya]

When someone decides to to be the fall guy, of course THEY are going to admit it was only them. I'm talking about your opinion. Do you think he wasn't being directed? Like I said, this information and answers to this will come out eventually. I just want to understand trump supporters train of thought here.

It sounds like for you at least, Flynn admitting he was the sole conspirator is enough for you. *washes hands* done?

FBI has the call regardless... here is a recreation of what happened:

https://youtu.be/WQhggbxh9og

[Skroe]

Perhaps terrified is the wrong word, but by backing Trump as overtly as he has, Putin's government is now in a "tiger by the tail" situation - as Skroe points out, if/when Trump goes, everyone in the US establishment will have it out for Russia in general, and his government in particular. That doesn't make what he did necessarily stupid, but it was risky.

Putin was playing a Fabian strategy, and has been for years - a long waiting game, focused on "not losing" while nursing along Russia but unwilling to make/risk any big changes; but with the advent of Trump he had a shot at an actual win and took it: with Trump in the White House, the Russian hope is that either he will transform the US and its foreign policy in a direction more friendly to autocratic semi-functional plutocrat/kleptocrat regime's like Putin's or at least thoroughly re-orient America's foreign policy focus in a way that would be difficult to reverse (8 years of moderately successful Trump could accomplish this); and/or Trump will destroy the U.S. (or at least its geopolitical muscle), leaving it unable to challenge Russia's "neo-Great Power status".

The problem is that if Trump is ousted swiftly, he doesn't get any of the above scenarios - instead, everyone from the liberals (you attacked our freedom and made us lose!) to the neo-liberals and neo-cons (who already opposed Russia / Putin anyway), to the (sane faction) corporatist right, the military and intelligence communities, and more will all happily target Putin's Russian for their own reasons, with the kind of momentum that becomes difficult to turn aside (possibly even in the face of Armageddon). Putin will have traded in Russia's long-established, mostly-defensive position for an aggressive (if cheap in terms of the resources it took) gambit... and lost.

(What's sad about the whole thing is that if he'd been willing or able to risk real domestic change 15 years ago, once he'd gotten things stabilized, he'd have had a shot at going down in history as Putin the Great - but for whatever reason (I suspect reluctance to risk what he had, and pressure from a lot of factions - Putin may be Consul, or even Dictator, but he balances atop a pyramid of other forces) he's never gone more than half-way: stabilizing and patching, but never really reforming or transforming, Russia, it's people, or its capabilities.)

This is really excellently put.

But i do want to add, even an 8 year moderately successful Trump white house would probably fail to meaningfully change US foreign / security policy in an enduring way. Just last spring, in that Atlantic Article, Obama ranted against "the blob", the national security complex deep state, that after 7.5 years as President, he had failed to reorient, just as his predecessors did. And furthermore it's worth noting that while Obama and his national security team shifted the country away from Bush-era focus on counter-insurgency towards reorienting the entire defense complex towards counter-terrorism... where are we now? Discussing and funding the largest conventional "great power" mechanized warfare build up since the Reagan era. And it should be a surprise as to why. To get Obama's reoriented Cyber-Command funded, he had to agree to fund fighter modernization. To get NewSTART passed, he had to agree to a $1 trillion, 30 year nuclear modernization scheme.

"The Blob" always wins in the end, and that shouldn't be surprising. It has 75 years of momentum, of infrastructure building, of shepherding key players through the dawn of their careers to the sunset of it. There is simply no way any elected official could compete. It's too may people, too much money, and too many entrenched interests.

Obama had 8 years, smart people working for him, and a motivated, highly political staff wanting to make an enduring change... and he still blew it. No reason to think Trump would do any better. In fact, we've seen the failure already. A few days ago the CIA refused to give a key Flynn acolyte security clearance, which ended his NSC career. Pompeo signed off on it too. That was "the blob" flexing it's muscles.

[belleflop]

I meant nothing of the sort. My earlier posts in this very thread will back that up.

But yes, he's trying to be the fall guy here. The GOP will accept it. Just watch.

It's going to very interesting to see what the republicans do. If they don't open investigations, that's pretty telling. If they do, are they going to put much effort into it. I mean these senators are already getting an ear full from angry constituents unhappy with their performance. Can they hide on this as well and get away with it? 2018 is going to be here faster than they think.

[Breccia]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...ull-confidence

Conway: Trump has ‘full confidence’ in Flynn

President Trump has “full confidence” in embattled national security adviser Michael Flynn, White House counselor Kellyanne Conway said Monday.

Speaking on MSNBC, Conway was asked whether Trump would stand by Flynn amid mounting speculation the president would cut his national security adviser loose over reports that Flynn discussed sanctions in a private discussion with a Russian diplomat before Trump's inauguration.

“Yes, Gen. Flynn does enjoy the full confidence of the president,” Conway said.
------------------------------------------------
Why yes, there is a video of her saying this directly to MSNBC of all places!

Are we tired of winning yet?

[Paula Deen]

B-b-but

the emails!!!!11!!1!!!!1!!

[ringpriest]

As far as Putin goes, whatever makes US look bad is good for him, so it's kinda win/win, although I'm sure he'd prefer to have a White House full of sycophantic rats.

The real question, I think, is to what degree was Flynn acting alone. The official line of course is that he made an honest mistake. It's also very possible that he was in step with Trump and is now having to fall on his sword for the administration. Of course those aren't the only possibilities.

[33kamous3]

Thankfully, Tucker Carlson is on Fox News with Piers Morgan engaging in a searing takedown of J.K. Rowling.

I'm not even kidding.

[Skroe]

Eh, there might be. I still don't see the GOP going forward with a much-needed investigation here. They don't have their tax plan signed yet.

That said, if Flynn leaves, can one of the competent people get on the NSC? I hear the Joint Chiefs or DNI are good options.

Well again, my Trump impeachment scenario comes in 2.5 years, after an unexpectedly bad 2018 mid-term and 2.5 years of things EXACTLY like this "Flynnghazi" or "Flynngate".

This may or may not be the one that does him in (my guess is it won't be), but I expect a steady drumbeat of scandals exactly like this, compounded with incompetence, corruption, and a dysfunctional relationship with Congress, to eventually do the job. There will be "the big one" after 2.5 years of this, that will be the proverbial 'straw".

That last bit, about alienating Congress, is the next step. Word on the street is Rince Preibus has been put on notice that he may be replaced as Chief of Staff. Apparently he sucks at his job and clashes all the time with Steve Bannon. Doing so would alienate Trump entirely from Paul Ryan (who is tight with Preibus, which is a reason he was given the role in the first place). Turning Ryan against Trump a required component to removing Trump. Therefore, expect Preibus to be the next guy targeted by a campaign to undermine this administration.

As I said, it will take a strategy to defeat a strategy. Trump's highly factionalized administration is uniquely vulnerable to salami tactics. Make no mistake, these tactical leaks from within the Executive Branch against Flynn (this time), and, just watch, next Preibus, is all salami tactics to make the White House, before too long, Donald Trump and Steve Bannon, with Pence trotted out like a potted plant for photo-ops.

[Breccia]

Thankfully, Tucker Carlson is on Fox News with Piers Morgan engaging in a searing takedown of J.K. Rowling.

I'm not even kidding.

No...problem is, they're not kidding either.

This result probably caught them by surprise. They need to drop back ten and punt.

- - - Updated - - -

Word on the street is Rince Preibus has been put on notice that he may be replaced as Chief of Staff.

...there is no fucking way.

[Elegiac]

...there is no fucking way.

No, we've been speculating this would be the case for a while now.

Priebus backed Spicer pretty heavily and it's well known that Trump dislikes Spicer and wanted Conway for the position.

[Breccia]

No, we've been speculating this would be the case for a while now.

Priebus backed Spicer pretty heavily and it's well known that Trump dislikes Spicer and wanted Conway for the position.

But...but...that's like his sole remaining connection with the rank-and-file GOP. Him firing Preibus would basically be a bold-faced announcement of a coup. It's way the hell too soon to do that. Not even Trump can possibly be that stupid or that ill-informed.

[Skroe]

...there is no fucking way.

Oh yes...
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/12/co...hief-of-staff/

The opening weeks of the Trump administration have been described as tumultuous by many, potentially leaving White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus’ head on the chopping block.

Chris Ruddy, founder of Newsmax Media and one of President Trump’s friends, said Sunday on CNN that the “White House is showing not the amount of order that we need to see. I think there’s a lot of weakness coming out of the chief of staff.”

After his comments on CNN, Ruddy told The Washington Post, “I’ve gotten three text messages from sitting Cabinet members praising my appearance. They realize this whole government depends on this chief of staff.” The significance of Ruddy’s comments are compounded by his tweet that he spoke at length with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago Saturday night.

“It’s my view that Reince is the problem. I think on paper Reince looked good as the chief of staff — and Donald trusted him — but it’s pretty clear the guy is in way over his head,” Ruddy told The Post. “He’s not knowledgeable of how federal agencies work, how the communications operations work. He botched this whole immigration rollout. This should’ve been a win for Donald, not two or three weeks of negative publicity.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...e-staff-234949

President Donald Trump, frustrated over his administration’s rocky start, is complaining to friends and allies about some of his most senior aides — leading to questions about whether he is mulling an early staff shake-up.

Trump has told several people that he is particularly displeased with national security adviser Michael Flynn over reports that he had top-secret discussions with Russian officials and lied about it. The president, who spent part of the weekend dealing with the Flynn controversy, has been alarmed by reports from top aides that they don't trust Flynn. "He thinks he's a problem," said one person familiar with the president’s thinking. "I would be worried if I was Gen. Flynn."

Yet Trump’s concern goes beyond his embattled national security adviser, according to conversations with more than a dozen people who have spoken to Trump or his top aides. He has mused aloud about press secretary Sean Spicer, posing specific questions to confidants about how they think he’s doing behind the lectern. During conversations with Spicer, the president has occasionally expressed unhappiness with how his press secretary is talking about some matters — sometimes pointing out even small things he’s doing that he doesn’t like.

Others who’ve talked with the president have begun to wonder about the future of chief of staff Reince Priebus. Several Trump campaign aides have begun to draft lists of possible Priebus replacements, with senior White House aides Kellyanne Conway and Rick Dearborn and lobbyist David Urban among those mentioned. Gary Cohn, a Trump economic adviser who is close with senior adviser Jared Kushner, has also been the subject of chatter.

[Elegiac]

But...but...that's like his sole remaining connection with the rank-and-file GOP. Him firing Preibus would basically be a bold-faced announcement of a coup. It's way the hell too soon to do that. Not even Trump can possibly be that stupid or that ill-informed.

He can, I can assure you, simply because Trump has an excellent memory for slights. I doubt he's forgotten the Republican administration slandered him and only backed him when it became convenient to do so - Priebus is representative of that.

Moreover as said above, Trump's apparent golden boy Bannon despises Priebus and won't hesitate at the first opportunity to push him out.

[Paula Deen]

He can, I can assure you, simply because Trump has an excellent memory for slights. I doubt he's forgotten the Republican administration slandered him and only backed him when it became convenient to do so - Priebus is representative of that.

Moreover as said above, Trump's apparent golden boy Bannon despises Priebus and won't hesitate at the first opportunity to push him out.

Trump has to play ball. Trump only controls the Executive Branch, not even that really, the inner circle of the Executive Branch. The Courts are split 50/50 at the moment and in a few months will be Republican Leaning, not Trump Leaning. Congress? They aren't for Trump. They are Republicans who won at the same time as Trump. Trump is a loose cannon and if he continues to act like one the Republicans WILL replace him. They have the power to and, unlike Obama, they will have full Bi-Partisan Support to get rid of him.

[Skroe]

But...but...that's like his sole remaining connection with the rank-and-file GOP. Him firing Preibus would basically be a bold-faced announcement of a coup. It's way the hell too soon to do that. Not even Trump can possibly be that stupid or that ill-informed.

The first rule of dealing with fascists (who more generally, populist authoritarian figures) is that attempts to control them always fails, and in the end, they end up controlling you. Republicans, via Preibus and Pence, are the latest in the long line of suckers who thought they could make a deal with the devil, only, to believe as one poster here so eloquently put it, the devil claims his due in installment plans.

Steve Bannon wants to remake the entire Republican party into a populist, hard right ethno-nationalist-workers party, which would mean destroying the Republican party as it exists. In such a scenario, a person like Marco Rubio - a tea party Republican let's remember - is a "liberal".

Preibus would be a victim of Bannon's agenda now, or he'll be a victim of Bannon's agenda later. But there is no way they co-exist on a perpetual basis. Preibus has been in politics for decades as a Party figure, but never in government. He is, in many ways, exactly what Bannon resents.

Trump may be that stupid only because Bannon, in his ear, tells him "it's all part of the plan".