Trump "alternative facts" economic data

[alexw]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.21f3753c73ee

After the election, the Trump transition team began the long, arduous process of putting together the presidential budget. As is always the case, it worked with the (non-political) career staffers at the Council of Economic Advisers.

Normally this process starts by asking the CEA staff to estimate baseline economic growth under current policies. These professionals then build on this baseline to forecast how the president’s proposals will affect the overall economy, as well as budget deficits.

The end results are often more optimistic than what independent forecasters predict — the White House is factoring in new policies it believes are pro-growth, after all — but not wildly so. The numbers still need to be credible.

Like I said, that’s how things normally work. Not this time around.

As the Wall Street Journal first reported (and as I’ve independently confirmed through my own sources), the Trump transition team instead ordered CEA staffers to predict sustained economic growth of 3 to 3.5 percent. The staffers were then directed to backfill all the other numbers in their models to produce these growth rates.

Set aside for a moment the sheer intellectual dishonesty of this approach. Let me first offer context for how nutty such a forecast would be.

Inflation-adjusted economic growth over the past decade has been under 2 percent. And independent projections for the coming decade are equally lackluster, thanks in part to population aging. The Federal Reserve, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and private forecasters predict about 1.8 to 1.9 percent annual growth.

In other words, based on nothing but expediency, the Trump team prophesies growth that’s more than a full percentage point higher than almost anyone else expects.

Even conservative economists who believe that a tax-cutting, deregulatory agenda will unleash pent-up growth must find Trump’s forecasts-by-fiat hard to swallow.

On an American Economic Association panel last month, Columbia Business School dean Glenn Hubbard — who chaired George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers and advised the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush — discussed the consequences of Trump’s agenda. He estimated that “reasonable or upper-bound estimates” for sustained economic growth would be about 2.75 percent. And to be clear, many economists find even that prediction Pollyannaish.

During the campaign, Trump made no secret of his disdain for experts, economic or otherwise. He has since doubled down on this view by demoting the CEA chair from his Cabinet. Not that the demotion really matters at this point; a month into his presidency, Trump hasn’t named a single political appointee to the council.

Is anyone surprised? I'm not.

[xuros]

Suuuure they did.

[Milchshake]

Is anyone surprised? I'm not.

Nope, not gonna be surprised when all the Austrians come into the thread approving of this.

[Zan15]

Don't worry in a few days trump will come out with his first full unemployment report of his presidency.

should be around 42%, like he said it was.


right guys?


right?

guys?

hello?

[Deletedaccount1]

Nope, not gonna be surprised when all the Austrians come into the thread approving of this.

Why would Austrians defend a protectionist and crony capitalist?

[Milchshake]

Why would Austrians defend a protectionist and crony capitalist?

They're happy as long as they receive massive deregulation and tax cuts. Screw everyone else.

[Draco-Onis]

Trump's economic team has been pushing the CBO to change GDP growth rates to include multipliers, like tax cuts would be counted as a 2x even if it yields nothing in the current year. The entire Trump economic projections and numbers are based on voodoo math and economics, get ready for 10 - 15% GDP numbers coming from the administration with no basis in facts.

[NED funded]

You mean eCONomists?

[Milchshake]

Trump's economic team has been pushing the CBO to change GDP growth rates to include multipliers, like tax cuts would be counted as a 2x even if it yields nothing in the current year. The entire Trump economic projections and numbers are based on voodoo math and economics, get ready for 10 - 15% GDP numbers coming from the administration with no basis in facts.

Ya "dynamic scoring" is one of those buzz words they like to use to cover the voodoo math.

[Celista]

Don't worry in a few days trump will come out with his first full unemployment report of his presidency.

should be around 42%, like he said it was.


right guys?


right?

guys?

hello?

When (real) unemployment gets to 24% due to his shitty policies, he'll view it as an improvement.

[Yuujin]

When (real) unemployment gets to 24% due to his shitty policies, he'll view it as an improvement.

Thanks Obama.

[Edge-]

And in a surprise to nobody, Trump brings his shady business practices with him into government.

Look at my shocked face, LOOK AT IT

: |

[Milchshake]

Also, when the Fed raises rates to cool the Trump Bubble, he'll start a twitter with all the "so called economists" at the Fed. Something something phony rates.

[Hiricine]

Trump just last year spent all his time looking at numbers that he believed weren't true, and then it ended up that they weren't true. Don't expect him to ever look at anyone else's stuff ever again.