UK will have to give up all EU perks after Brexit, François Hollande warns

[primalmatter]

Their is a saying...



You're entire argument is based around the domino effect of the collapsing EU....so if that doesn't happen what happens to you're argument?

On the other hand we aren't making a strawman argument about the collapse of the UK, just that you will lose certain benefits (financial passport) which will happen based on the current laws in the books.

It is possible the EU will survive and perhaps even thrive past this point I am doubtful but my speculation isn't based around a all knowing crystal ball.

In that case I would argue the long term gains of being a independent country over part of a collaboration were they would be supporting the poorer members for at least the foreseeable future.

The trade between the two countries is more profitable for the EU then the UK in terms of resources bought so while they may hold out for a time out of spite I can't see them willing to hold out indefinitely.

[Deleted]

Why do people think the end of the EU has anything to do with looking numbers and figures in a rational way?
It's about emotion and the emotions are strong amongst a large part of "the people" of many Western countries.

Hopefully we still have a EU in 10 years, only it run in a very different way than it is now.
That's the problem imo: how the EU works and operates right now. "Fix" that and the EU has a future.

[Mayhem]

First off how does passporting come into this? I would like to hear your reasoning...

Ok, you are totally clueless about the topic, inform yourself i´m not here to educate you on everything befor you are even able to engage in the debate.

I am aware of the countries gdp that is why I find it amusing the EU thinks itself the power player here.

The EU negotiate as one block, now compare the UK gdp to the EU gdp and you have your answer.

[primalmatter]

Ok, you are totally clueless about the topic, inform yourself i´m not here to educate you on everything befor you are even able to engage in the debate.



The EU negotiate as one block, now compare the UK gdp to the EU gdp and you have your answer.

You lacking the ability to provide a argument isn't a problem that can be solved by me furthering my academic knowledge sadly.

I am comparing the UK to the EU... the instability of the EU is the basis for my concern.

[ati87]

It is possible the EU will survive and perhaps even thrive past this point I am doubtful but my speculation isn't based around a all knowing crystal ball.

In that case I would argue the long term gains of being a independent country over part of a collaboration were they would be supporting the poorer members for at least the foreseeable future.

The trade between the two countries is more profitable for the EU then the UK in terms of resources bought so while they may hold out for a time out of spite I can't see them willing to hold out indefinitely.

You're entire argument is based around a ton of assumptions....another movie quote

Gordon Gekko:
The mother of all evil is speculation.

Just come up with a fact or two, not delusional grandeur because when I see these kind of statements based around no credible research at all my inner student wants to become a inter teacher and send you back a class or two.

[primalmatter]

You're entire argument is based around a ton of assumptions....another movie quote



Just come up with a fact or two, not delusional grandeur because when I see these kind of statements based around no credible research at all my inner student wants to become a inter teacher and send you back a class or two.

We are talking about a decision that won't be clearly felt for a decade at the bare minimum. They are no sure thing here anyone offering you that is a fool.

[Mayhem]

You lacking the ability to provide a argument isn't a problem that can be solved by me furthering my academic knowledge sadly.

You don´t get the argument because of your lack of knowledge.

I am comparing the UK to the EU... the instability of the EU is the basis for my concern.

aha right

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We are talking about a decision that won't be clearly felt for a decade at the bare minimum. They are no sure thing here anyone offering you that is a fool.

You think markets and companies will take a decade at the bare minimum to react? Are you living in the 16th century?

[primalmatter]

You don´t get the argument because of your lack of knowledge.



aha right

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You think markets and companies will take a decade at the bare minimum to react? Are you living in the 16th century?

I think you honestly lack a core understanding of the market to assume the consumer plays no part in it. You really think that companies will gladly accept lower profits because when you get down to it Germany wants to be obsolent?

The problem here is that you seem to think the UK is the one that losses out here... This decision is one were the long term effects will not be felt suddenly the idea they would be is simply unrealistic.

[Mayhem]

I think you honestly lack a core understanding of the market to assume the consumer plays no part in it. You really think that companies will gladly accept lower profits because when you get down to it Germany wants to be obsolent?

The problem here is that you seem to think the UK is the one that losses out here... This decision is one were the long term effects will not be felt suddenly the idea they would be is simply unrealistic.

You have no idea what you are talking about, zero. Germany doesn´t have anymore say in this than other members, because the EU negotiates trade agreements as one block, can you get this into your head?

The UK is an island with it´s most meaningful natural resource being fresh water, whoopdidoo. So everything they want to export, they have to import something first and now they´re leaving the largest market for import export without having a market to fall back on, that´ll decrease profits from exports because their stuff gets more expensive and it´ll increase cost of imports because stuff got more expensive. So they will have to pay more for the same and get less for the same. And if that wasn´t big enough of an impact, they also lose a shit ton of financial services because they don´t have the authority to do them anymore within the EU.

The UK will beg for new trade agreements with other countries just to stay afloat, that however will still not plug the hole the financial industry leaves behind, unless of course they strike a deal with the EU. So how exactly does the UK have a better position in the upcoming negotiations, because the EU is on the brink of breaking (according to sources like, you)?

[primalmatter]

You have no idea what you are talking about, zero. Germany doesn´t have anymore say in this than other members, because the EU negotiates trade agreements as one block, can you get this into your head?

The UK is an island with it´s most meaningful natural resource being fresh water, whoopdidoo. So everything they want to export, they have to import something first and now they´re leaving the largest market for import export without having a market to fall back on, that´ll decrease profits from exports because their stuff gets more expensive and it´ll increase cost of imports because stuff got more expensive. So they will have to pay more for the same and get less for the same. And if that wasn´t big enough of an impact, they also lose a shit ton of financial services because they don´t have the authority to do them anymore within the EU.

The UK will beg for new trade agreements with other countries just to stay afloat, that however will still not plug the hole the financial industry leaves behind, unless of course they strike a deal with the EU. So how exactly does the UK have a better position in the upcoming negotiations, because the EU is on the brink of breaking (according to sources like, you)?

The idea that the wealthiest memeber doesn't have more pull then the others is something I find unrealistic in terms of beliefs.

Again we will simply have to see how this plays out.

[Pann]

The idea that the wealthiest memeber doesn't have more pull then the others is something I find unrealistic in terms of beliefs.

Again we will simply have to see how this plays out.

If that was the case wouldn't we have a bigger say in the running of the EU thus making the whole Brexit thingy a bit.... pointless???

[Mayhem]

The idea that the wealthiest memeber doesn't have more pull then the others is something I find unrealistic in terms of beliefs.

Again we will simply have to see how this plays out.

Because the wealthiest member is meaningless if he doesn´t outweight all the others and guess what, he doesn´t. Your whole argument stems from the idea that the UK only payed and got nothing back and that is fantastically wrong.

[Deleted]

As for a strategic partnership with the Trumpenreich... the God-Emperor seems quite friendly towards the UK in general, and was a supporter of Brexit. I don't think we'll have many issues working with him.

The naivete of this position is breathtaking.

Here is what Trump does: he makes deals that screw other people over. His "friends" usually. He ties them into contracts which f*** them over. He has done this very publicly and repeatedly.

This is not a criticism or a moral position. It is simply a statement of fact. Business is fairly ruthless and you can make a case for such a Darwinian approach. I suspct a large number of Americans voted for him because of it.

However, when it comes to prospective partners if they don't do their homework on Trump then they deserve the ass-f***ing they are going to receive. That includes the UK government.

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The UK is an island with it´s most meaningful natural resource being fresh water, whoopdidoo. So everything they want to export, they have to import something first and now they´re leaving the largest market for import export without having a market to fall back on, that´ll decrease profits from exports because their stuff gets more expensive and it´ll increase cost of imports because stuff got more expensive. So they will have to pay more for the same and get less for the same. And if that wasn´t big enough of an impact, they also lose a shit ton of financial services because they don´t have the authority to do them anymore within the EU.

The UK will beg for new trade agreements with other countries just to stay afloat, that however will still not plug the hole the financial industry leaves behind, unless of course they strike a deal with the EU. So how exactly does the UK have a better position in the upcoming negotiations, because the EU is on the brink of breaking (according to sources like, you)?

The obvious approach would be to do what Switzerland/Monaco/Luxembourg does and essentially become a tax haven,

In terms of GDP this could work. If everyone deposits their money in the UK the treasury could do well. It will have major negative societal effects as most of the money will be in the hands of a few.

I thought this was what the Tories are planning. It sounds like a kind of tory dreamworld where they could forget about the working-class altogether. Amazingly they seem to be stupid or too lazy to even do this.

[Pann]

The naivete of this position is breathtaking.

Here is what Trump does: he makes deals that screw other people over. His "friends" usually. He ties them into contracts which f*** them over. He has done this very publicly and repeatedly.

This is not a criticism or a moral position. It is simply a statement of fact. Business is fairly ruthless and you can make a case for such a Darwinian approach. I suspct a large number of Americans voted for him because of it.

However, when it comes to prospective partners if they don't do their homework on Trump then they deserve the ass-f***ing they are going to receive. That includes the UK government.

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The obvious approach would be to do what Switzerland/Monaco/Luxembourg does and essentially become a tax haven,

In terms of GDP this could work. If everyone deposits their money in the UK the treasury could do well. It will have major negative societal effects as most of the money will be in the hands of a few.

I thought this was what the Tories are planning. It sounds like a kind of tory dreamworld where they could forget about the working-class altogether. Amazingly they seem to be stupid or too lazy to even do this.

I honestly don't know why people keep mentioning Trump's fondness for the UK as some sort positive for the UK. Even if it is the case that he intends to give the UK a favourable trade deal we will not be able to enter into negotiations with the US until we have left the EU sometime in 2019 by which time the political landscape in the US could be very different. Trump will either be at the end of his presidency or focused on campaigning for re-election and I doubt giving the UK a good deal will be at the front of his priorities or even within his power.

[Mayhem]

The obvious approach would be to do what Switzerland/Monaco/Luxembourg does and essentially become a tax haven,

In terms of GDP this could work. If everyone deposits their money in the UK the treasury could do well. It will have major negative societal effects as most of the money will be in the hands of a few.

I thought this was what the Tories are planning. It sounds like a kind of tory dreamworld where they could forget about the working-class altogether. Amazingly they seem to be stupid or too lazy to even do this.

The problem with this is, they would have to remain in the single market to do that on money made within the EU, on everything outside, they aren´t competing with just the 3 countries you´ve mentioned but with every tax haven there is. So i really don´t see this as a solution.

[Deleted]

The problem with this is, they would have to remain in the single market to do that on money made within the EU, on everything outside, they aren´t competing with just the 3 countries you´ve mentioned but with every tax haven there is. So i really don´t see this as a solution.

Ah. You might be a little surprised at how many tax havens we actually run. It isn't common knowledge.

I think the government has a shot at getting a share of the global tax-dodging market. For reasons largely incomprehensible to actual Brits, the British brand is very prestigous and actually worth quite a lot, ludicrous as that may seem. I say it has a shot-but they really do seem to be very incompetent.

Even if this works I'm not saying it will be a good thing. Our GDP numbers will be good but life will be shit for everyone outside the 1%, or, increasingly, the 0.1%.

[Slant]

Yup. I think it's interesting though that so many economic forecasts have been revised up for the UK since the referendum. Historically too, the UK's always been a pretty powerful economy, so I think that, worst case scenario, we'll look back in 20 or 30 years and say "well if we'd stayed in, we'd have grown X% faster per annum", rather than "getting out has tanked our economy to 1950s levels" or whatever (I know, hyperbole, but you get the idea I'm sure ).


The economic numbers are looking better, true, but...

1. Unemployment in many places is still god-awful, especially for the young.
2. It'd be interesting to see a breakdown of the numbers - I suspect a lot of the growth would be due to (a) Germany, and (b) financial services and related stuff.
3. Immigration.

Number 2 I think is economically bearable if you have enough big wealth transfers - ie you tax the bankers and Germans to pay unemployed Italian factory workers benefits. Socially it's corrosive as hell, but that's a longer-term problem.

Number 1 is also a longer term problem, because those young people wouldn't get many high-paying jobs anyway, so their immediate economic contribution is minimal. Again, you get long-term social issues from it. Young men with no job prospects and nothing to do = hope you like crime & riots!

Number 3 is what will destroy the EU. The EU leadership seems incapable of (a) stopping, and (b) reversing, the flow of immigrants, and you need to do both if you want the EU to survive. Otherwise the nationalists will seize power, get out, and start deporting people. And if they fail, the ultra-nationalists will seize power, get out, and start killing people, and I doubt anyone here wants that. Either way, the EU will crumble.

(As an aside, I should point out that a non-Euro Greece for example would almost certainly survived the financial crisis better, because it could have massively devalued the drachma etc. This isn't the same as being out of the EU as a whole, but it's worth pointing out nonetheless.)

I can respect your post, because you apparently put some thoughts into it. I disagree with some of the arguments and, ultimately, the conclusion. But I can see where you're coming from. I'd like to point out that you're painting the darkest of pictures for possible scenarios. Unemployment is still awful, that's right. But we're getting there. Things are moving as slow as glaciers on EU level, but just like glaciers, they're hard to stop once set into motion. We're seeing first small signs of life in Greece and once Spain gets itself in order (Portugal is doing much better), we'll have two problematic countries left: Italy and Greece. Those eastern countries everyone likes to bitch about? They are among the countries with the biggest GDP increases. They are playing catch up and all that's keeping them back is their internal corruption.

We'll have to address that. But given where they're coming from, that will take some time. This is not news, everyone in Brussels was aware of that a long time ago, before they joined in fact. So all of this is going as planned, more or less.

All this talk about "the EU will crumble" is an attempt at creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Talk negatively enough for long enough and people may start believing in it. You can do a lot of things in the EU, but you need the support of the people. So, when people like you are constantly going "the EU is going to crumble", that's not being helpful. That's being part of the problem.

So kindly, please take your exit, Brexit, and shut the fuck up. The same way we frown upon Trump making comments about things that are simply not his business, we're soon going to shut the UK out and ask you to refrain from commenting on internal matters of what is essentially a sovereign territory you have no say about. I'm not even arguing contra Brexit here anymore. I'm saying we're going to settle this and after that, do your own stuff.

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That's the problem imo: how the EU works and operates right now. "Fix" that and the EU has a future.

This is a person that criticises the EU and wants to fix it. This is how I wish Britain had acted.

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We are talking about a decision that won't be clearly felt for a decade at the bare minimum. They are no sure thing here anyone offering you that is a fool.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...falling-pound/

The effects are felt right now and you haven't even pulled Article 50, yet. This is just a sneak preview.

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What instability?

The one where the pound dropped double as hard as the Euro after the referendum.... oh wait, that doesn't make sense, does it. Ha-hum. I smell bullshit.

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The idea that the wealthiest memeber doesn't have more pull then the others is something I find unrealistic in terms of beliefs.

Again we will simply have to see how this plays out.

Money doesn't give countries more influence. Population does. And this is if countries had direct influence on the currency, which they don't.

[Mizix]

The thing about negotiations is that the other side only have to believe you have an offer for it to be an effective tool.

If the EU are under the impression that our focus will switch to transatlantic trade, should negotiations with the EU go badly, then it weakens their position. If they think that the UK has no alternative avenues, then it weakens the UK's position.

Slightly off-topic but let me tell you that you are severely underestimating who negotiators at this level actually are. They are not freshly graduated out of college but diplomats with decades of practice under their belts, political connections and in-depth knowledge of global politics and economics. If you can think of that on a gaming forum, EU negotiators most certainly have too - probably before you did - which means that they will see UK's bluff miles away. Brexit is not a negotiation the UK can bullshit its way out, there is just too much at stake for both sides. The deal must be negotiated in good faith but, as things stands, UK is the weak side... this can change - one never knows with global politics - but your best hope is that the EU won't try to make an example out of you (which I strongly believe it shouldn't).

[Activi-T]

Slightly off-topic but let me tell you that you are severely underestimating who negotiators at this level actually are. They are not freshly graduated out of college but diplomats with decades of practice under their belts, political connections and in-depth knowledge of global politics and economics. If you can think of that on a gaming forum, EU negotiators most certainly have too - probably before you did - which means that they will see UK's bluff miles away. Brexit is not a negotiation the UK can bullshit its way out, there is just too much at stake for both sides. The deal must be negotiated in good faith but, as things stands, UK is the weak side... this can change - one never knows with global politics - but your best hope is that the EU won't try to make an example out of you (which I strongly believe it shouldn't).

What you have to take into account also is the fact that nationalism is on the rise in numerous EU countries. Punishing the UK overly harshly will only lend credence to the arguement that countries are being held at ruinous gunpoint by Brussels, showing they don't care about their members only the money they can make off of them. Also, moving financial services from London to Frankfurt will inevitably lead to nationalists fearmongering over the amount of power Germany would then hold over the others. Neither of those two things will do the EU any favours in navigating these uncertain times.

It's a very fine line to walk and you're guaranteed not to please the majority no matter what you do. I don't envy anyone involved.

[Rockyreg]

I can respect your post, because you apparently put some thoughts into it. I disagree with some of the arguments and, ultimately, the conclusion. But I can see where you're coming from. I'd like to point out that you're painting the darkest of pictures for possible scenarios. Unemployment is still awful, that's right. But we're getting there. Things are moving as slow as glaciers on EU level, but just like glaciers, they're hard to stop once set into motion. We're seeing first small signs of life in Greece and once Spain gets itself in order (Portugal is doing much better), we'll have two problematic countries left: Italy and Greece. Those eastern countries everyone likes to bitch about? They are among the countries with the biggest GDP increases. They are playing catch up and all that's keeping them back is their internal corruption.

I'm sorry but Greece's 2016 Q4 growth figures snuffed out any small signs of life there was.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-growth

Eurozone growth has been anaemic and reliant on a small number of nations (mainly Germany). The EU needs to sort its shit out and cut loose the deadwood if it has to or the future is not looking good.

The lack of unity in the EU is a fucking joke. People follow the rules if it suits, if it doesn't they just stick two fingers up to it. Germany and France were the worst offenders yet they have they fucking cheek to reprimand other nations when they do it.

Anyone who suggests that the EU member states are in any way equal are deluding themselves.

So kindly, please take your exit, Brexit, and shut the fuck up. The same way we frown upon Trump making comments about things that are simply not his business, we're soon going to shut the UK out and ask you to refrain from commenting on internal matters of what is essentially a sovereign territory you have no say about. I'm not even arguing contra Brexit here anymore. I'm saying we're going to settle this and after that, do your own stuff.

You can't shut down people's opinions whether the UK is in or out of the EU. And as for shutting the UK out as much as you ll happen I can guarantee this will not be the case. The UK is far too linked to the EU for that to happen.

This is a person that criticises the EU and wants to fix it. This is how I wish Britain had acted.

David Cameron went to the EU and tried to change a few things, and was pretty much told to fuck off. You can change the EU, only external factors can change the EU.

The one where the pound dropped double as hard as the Euro after the referendum.... oh wait, that doesn't make sense, does it. Ha-hum. I smell bullshit.

Pound has been much lower than it is now and we were in the EU of all things. You like to project hoe the EU will deal with the UK and it comes across as though its your personal wishlist. The UK will get far more concessions than you would hope I'm afraid.