UK will have to give up all EU perks after Brexit, François Hollande warns

[Slant]

I'm sorry but Greece's 2016 Q4 growth figures snuffed out any small signs of life there was.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-growth

Eurozone growth has been anaemic and reliant on a small number of nations (mainly Germany). The EU needs to sort its shit out and cut loose the deadwood if it has to or the future is not looking good.

[...]

You can't shut down people's opinions whether the UK is in or out of the EU. And as for shutting the UK out as much as you ll happen I can guarantee this will not be the case. The UK is far too linked to the EU for that to happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...conomic_growth

And the UK is too linked? Why the fuck do you think you're doing a Brexit? Do you think the UK will still be linked after the Brexit? Do you have any clue what the Brexit is about? Sheesh... :P

[Teleros]

The naivete of this position is breathtaking.

Here is what Trump does: he makes deals that screw other people over. His "friends" usually. He ties them into contracts which f*** them over. He has done this very publicly and repeatedly.

This is not a criticism or a moral position. It is simply a statement of fact. Business is fairly ruthless and you can make a case for such a Darwinian approach. I suspct a large number of Americans voted for him because of it.

However, when it comes to prospective partners if they don't do their homework on Trump then they deserve the ass-f***ing they are going to receive. That includes the UK government.

I would be very disappointed with the God-Emperor if he didn't try to get the best possible deal for the USA - or indeed for his business. Heck, it's his solemn duty as POTUS to do so. But... that doesn't mean you can't work out (and I do mean "work out" - the UK is not without leverage in any negotiations) a deal that both sides are happy with.

= + =

I can respect your post, because you apparently put some thoughts into it.

TY.

I'd like to point out that you're painting the darkest of pictures for possible scenarios.

Dark would be the ISIS flag flying from Westminster Palace or Versailles .

Unemployment is still awful, that's right. But we're getting there. Things are moving as slow as glaciers on EU level, but just like glaciers, they're hard to stop once set into motion. We're seeing first small signs of life in Greece and once Spain gets itself in order (Portugal is doing much better), we'll have two problematic countries left: Italy and Greece. Those eastern countries everyone likes to bitch about? They are among the countries with the biggest GDP increases. They are playing catch up and all that's keeping them back is their internal corruption.

What worries me is that there'll be another shock to the system before they can stabilise. The business cycle has traditionally been what, 6-8 years long I think? How long before we're due for another dip?

I get that I'm pessimistic about such things, but it's just that from what I see there's not much reason to be optimistic.

All this talk about "the EU will crumble" is an attempt at creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The EU will crumble. The EU will crumble. The EU will crumble...

So, when people like you are constantly going "the EU is going to crumble", that's not being helpful. That's being part of the problem.

Yes, but it's very helpful to the anti-EU position across Europe. If you support X, and I support not-X, then of course I'm not going to help your position :P .

The same way we frown upon Trump making comments about things that are simply not his business, we're soon going to shut the UK out and ask you to refrain from commenting on internal matters of what is essentially a sovereign territory you have no say about.

What's that smell?

Oh right. Hypocrisy.

Let's be honest, in this day and age, people criticise and comment and try to persuade each other about goings-on in foreign lands all the time. I don't think Uganda should criminalise homosexuality - should I STFU about that? What about China's human right's record? Et cetera et cetera et cetera.

= + =

You have no idea what you are talking about, zero. Germany doesn´t have anymore say in this than other members

Technically true, but in practice being the engine of half the EU economy gives you a lot of behind the scenes leverage.

The UK is an island with it´s most meaningful natural resource being fresh water, whoopdidoo.

Fresh water?

So everything they want to export, they have to import something first and now they´re leaving the largest market for import export without having a market to fall back on, that´ll decrease profits from exports because their stuff gets more expensive and it´ll increase cost of imports because stuff got more expensive. So they will have to pay more for the same and get less for the same.

O_o

When the UK leaves the EU / Single Market / etc etc etc, it'll, in a worst case scenario, fall back to standard WTO rules, because it's a WTO member independent of its EU membership. It also has a lot of contacts with such insignificant economies like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Commonwealth.

Will there be a trade deficit? Probably, but that's been the norm for the UK throughout most of history for the last few hundred years, so big deal.

And if that wasn´t big enough of an impact, they also lose a shit ton of financial services because they don´t have the authority to do them anymore within the EU.

Assuming the EU doesn't reach a deal over financial services (!), then yes. And assuming the financial services in London don't find a workaround (geniuses in big London-based banks vs European regulators earning 1/10 their money... gee that's a hard one :P ). And assuming they don't just find work elsewhere. Ohai China...

Now, given that the big banks seem to be betting that the EU will reach a deal over financial services (ie, they're announcing they'll stay put in London)... yeah your scenario isn't looking very likely. Frankfurt, Paris etc won't be rivals to London for a very long time, if ever.

The UK will beg for new trade agreements with other countries just to stay afloat

That's not how economies work. If nothing else you can do what the Greeks & Italians used to do before they adopted the Deutschm- I mean, the Euro, and devalue the pound sterling to make it more competitive.

[Deleted]

Like I said before, short term Brexit has its cost but its long-term benefits will outweigh it by multiple factors.

[Mizix]

What you have to take into account also is the fact that nationalism is on the rise in numerous EU countries. Punishing the UK overly harshly will only lend credence to the arguement that countries are being held at ruinous gunpoint by Brussels, showing they don't care about their members only the money they can make off of them. Also, moving financial services from London to Frankfurt will inevitably lead to nationalists fearmongering over the amount of power Germany would then hold over the others. Neither of those two things will do the EU any favours in navigating these uncertain times.

It's a very fine line to walk and you're guaranteed not to please the majority no matter what you do. I don't envy anyone involved.

Totally agree, that's why I believe the EU shouldn't try to make an example out of the UK. Being the weaker side simply means, in this context, that the UK doesn't get to chose the starting conditions of the negotiation - they don't get to sit down with an attitude "I want this and that". However, that doesn't imply that the UK won't get anything her way. A good deal is probably one that leaves the UK slightly worse off but nothing terrible (such as no more power of decision in EU matters that impact the UK too, like Switzerland's situation) and doesn't paint the EU as overly hostile to people's will. All in all, Brexit will be a huge waste of time and resources for everyone involved because the status quo will mostly prevail, imho.

It's a fine line, indeed.

[Daws]

Mostly nonsense take for example

Quote 1) “That’s not possible; the UK will become an outsider to the European Union.”

then on the subject of an EU defense project
Quote 2) “In my mind, the UK, even outside the EU, should be associated with that,”

So on one hand UK will be cast out but on the other the EU will want to rope in the UK forces to help them. Or basically meet one of the big potential negotiating points.

Also the stuff on Trump not helping the UK, honestly I wouldn't underestimate how much Trump dislikes the EU and would see helping the UK as a way to help break the EU. After all if the UK leaves and succeeds others will be tempted to repeat it.

Then there's a legal opinion that's been floated which says the 50-60 billion bill UK may have is reliant on one thing happening - the negotiations been complete within 2 years. If either side opts to default and let time run out all agreements become null and void as to is the bill.

[Deleted]

Totally agree, that's why I believe the EU shouldn't try to make an example out of the UK

I agree. They will do what will best for buisness and making money. "Making an example out of UK" is bad idea from start, hehe. UK won't vanish after Brexit. Problem will be Scotland, imo they will make referendum again, there's chance UE will be again 28 countries .

[Slant]

Yes, but it's very helpful to the anti-EU position across Europe. If you support X, and I support not-X, then of course I'm not going to help your position :P .

[...]

Let's be honest, in this day and age, people criticise and comment and try to persuade each other about goings-on in foreign lands all the time. I don't think Uganda should criminalise homosexuality - should I STFU about that? What about China's human right's record? Et cetera et cetera et cetera.

You've got your Brexit. It's not your job to rile up the rest of Europe on a mad crusade against an institution that you're no longer part of. Do we tell you to get rid of monarchy? No, we don't. Do we tell you to start driving on the right side of the lane like civilised people? No we don't. Why? Because we are quite happy with you being the way you are.

Should you comment about China? Or criminalising homosexuality? No, of course not. But you're actually comparing the EU, an institution that brought peace to a continent that hasn't known anything but warfare for more than 2000 years, that promotes human rights, democracy and freedoms to countries that have until recently been under the communist yoke, with actual, literal criminalisation of homosexuality and a regime that would rather drive tanks over students than tolerate their protests?

You seriously went off the rails there, mate. That's not having an opinion, that's rude.

[Deleted]

(As an aside, I should point out that a non-Euro Greece for example would almost certainly survived the financial crisis better, because it could have massively devalued the drachma etc. This isn't the same as being out of the EU as a whole, but it's worth pointing out nonetheless.)

I.. don't know about that. Realistically the drachma would've been reduced to toilet papers levels. Wouldn't that have caused something like Venezuela, which is arguably even worse?

[Slant]

Mostly nonsense take for example

Quote 1) “That’s not possible; the UK will become an outsider to the European Union.”

then on the subject of an EU defense project
Quote 2) “In my mind, the UK, even outside the EU, should be associated with that,”

So on one hand UK will be cast out but on the other the EU will want to rope in the UK forces to help them. Or basically meet one of the big potential negotiating points.

Also the stuff on Trump not helping the UK, honestly I wouldn't underestimate how much Trump dislikes the EU and would see helping the UK as a way to help break the EU. After all if the UK leaves and succeeds others will be tempted to repeat it.

Then there's a legal opinion that's been floated which says the 50-60 billion bill UK may have is reliant on one thing happening - the negotiations been complete within 2 years. If either side opts to default and let time run out all agreements become null and void as to is the bill.

The EU is not NATO. One is an economic entity, the other is a military alliance. You may want to learn the difference and while you're at it, learn that countries can actually multitask and deal with these kinds of differentiations.

About Trump? If you've followed any of his speeches, you'd know that Trump barely gives a shit about the US, let alone the UK or the EU. Trump cares about Trump first. Then America, maybe. The UK? Probably comes behind his morning dump, if they're lucky.

50-60 billion is really not worth much fuss about on an international scale. Both sides have 2 years minimum to prepare for the loss of 50-60 billion in either direction. Of all the things to worry about, 50-60 billion Euros really isn't on the mind of the people responsible for the negotiations. It's a number you can throw into the media circus because people can somewhat relate to it, but the hidden cost that people don't understand... like, money lost due to customs, money lost due to the lack of clientele from the EU, money lost on the pound dropping... those are numbers that really hurt in the long run. And since people don't understand half of that, they are pretty ignorant to the actual dangers of the Brexit.

That pound drop on referendum night? That alone destroyed more money than the 50-60 billion you're talking about.

- - - Updated - - -

I.. don't know about that. Realistically the drachma would've been reduced to toilet papers levels. Wouldn't that have caused something like Venezuela, which is arguably even worse?

Well, with no credit rating, nobody's going to lend you. Having a bad currency and a bad rating to go with it only goes so far. Once you're below the "speculative" section of the rating systems, it's a plummet straight to economic hell and the longest of all crawls to get back to a level where even gamblers might consider you an option. Greece was at the quite literal abyss and had a good, long look at it.

[Mayhem]

Fresh water?

What is your question?

O_o

When the UK leaves the EU / Single Market / etc etc etc, it'll, in a worst case scenario, fall back to standard WTO rules, because it's a WTO member independent of its EU membership. It also has a lot of contacts with such insignificant economies like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Commonwealth.

Will there be a trade deficit? Probably, but that's been the norm for the UK throughout most of history for the last few hundred years, so big deal.

The UK however doesn´t have trade deals with them, so leaving the EU would mean leaving all the current trade deals too. 'We´re in contact with other economies' means nothing as everyone is and it doesn´t give you a better position.

Assuming the EU doesn't reach a deal over financial services (!), then yes. And assuming the financial services in London don't find a workaround (geniuses in big London-based banks vs European regulators earning 1/10 their money... gee that's a hard one :P ). And assuming they don't just find work elsewhere. Ohai China...

Now, given that the big banks seem to be betting that the EU will reach a deal over financial services (ie, they're announcing they'll stay put in London)... yeah your scenario isn't looking very likely. Frankfurt, Paris etc won't be rivals to London for a very long time, if ever.

Well if you´re going to tell me the geniuses in big london-based banks are going to break the law as a workaround then yeah, great argument you got there. Well i read other things about big banks and staying in london but i guess we´ll have to wait for at least when art. 50 gets triggered before anyone will start moving.

That's not how economies work. If nothing else you can do what the Greeks & Italians used to do before they adopted the Deutschm- I mean, the Euro, and devalue the pound sterling to make it more competitive.

Devaluation doesn´t work for every economy. The UK isn´t greece nor italy, the UK don´t have most of their income based on tourism and vacation which would get a boost by devaluation. For devaluation to make sense you have to get people spent more money/invest from abroad because they see profits, now what exactly would the UK get by devaluation while being solely on WTO rules and without natural ressources nor nice warm sandy beaches?

[Teleros]

You've got your Brexit. It's not your job to rile up the rest of Europe on a mad crusade against an institution that you're no longer part of. Do we tell you to get rid of monarchy? No, we don't. Do we tell you to start driving on the right side of the lane like civilised people? No we don't. Why? Because we are quite happy with you being the way you are.

Don't be silly. If you think we should drive on the wrong side of the road, feel free to say as much. If you think we should abolish the monarchy, feel free to say so too (unless it's about the Thai monarchy, that'll get you thrown in jail :P ). So what if you're not a subject of Queen Elizabeth II, you can still have an opinion and voice it. Now, it might be a stupid or nonsensical one of course, but assuming you're being cogent and reasonable and all that good stuff, there's no harm in bouncing our ideas back and forth.

But you're actually comparing the EU, an institution that brought peace to a continent that hasn't known anything but warfare for more than 2000 years, that promotes human rights, democracy and freedoms to countries that have until recently been under the communist yoke, with actual, literal criminalisation of homosexuality and a regime that would rather drive tanks over students than tolerate their protests?

This argument kind of falls apart if I disagree with your view of the EU though. Which, for the record, I do - to give one example, it was the Cold War situation, with all those US nukes and tanks occupying Europe, that brought peace (and not coincidentally, all those massive welfare states) - not the EU.

From my perspective, the EU is an anti-democratic, quasi-fascistic organisation. So no wonder I'm opposing it :P .

= + =

I.. don't know about that. Realistically the drachma would've been reduced to toilet papers levels. Wouldn't that have caused something like Venezuela, which is arguably even worse?

No you'd need a lot more economic mismanagement to get to Venezuela . Obviously a lot also depends on just how much you devalue it (ohai Weimar Germany :P ). But to give another example, the Greeks could opt to peg the drachma to the dollar at an advantageous exchange rate - which again, they can't do with the free-floating Euro.

Still, let's suppose that a devaluation would have helped. Now let's suppose that the drachma lost 10% of its value that way... that won't cause "Venezuela in Greece", but it might have helped the Greek economy to weather the crash better. Not to avoid it, because I don't think anything could have, but it would have made it easier, at least. A lot of flexibility was lost by adopting the Euro.

= + =

What is your question?

You said the UK's main resource was fresh water. As opposed to, say, salt water.

The UK however doesn´t have trade deals with them, so leaving the EU would mean leaving all the current trade deals too. 'We´re in contact with other economies' means nothing as everyone is and it doesn´t give you a better position.

The old Dominions have been pretty receptive to having good deals with the UK once we're out of the EU, and there's no reason they can't be negotiated beforehand and activated as soon as the UK leaves the Single Market. Sure, we don't have those deals right now, but that's a consequence of our being members of the EU right now. Given the Anglosphere predilection for free trade, any such deals would be pretty easily hashed out too, because the Aussies, Kiwis, Brits et al won't care much for ten thousand pages of regulatory harmonisation like the EU.

Well if you´re going to tell me the geniuses in big london-based banks are going to break the law as a workaround then yeah, great argument you got there.

Who said anything about breaking the law? I mean sure I expect it'll happen, but the more complex a regulatory regime you have, the more likely that loopholes will exist.

Well i read other things about big banks and staying in london but i guess we´ll have to wait for at least when art. 50 gets triggered before anyone will start moving.

TBH whilst I like the title of #1 financial centre bouncing between New York and London, I'm not sure it'd do the UK economy much harm if the City was downsized a good bit. It's not really healthy for the economy to have this single giant brain drain for the entire country - it'd be good to have some other industries elsewhere in the UK to attract talent to.

Devaluation doesn´t work for every economy. The UK isn´t greece nor italy, the UK don´t have most of their income based on tourism and vacation which would get a boost by devaluation. For devaluation to make sense you have to get people spent more money/invest from abroad because they see profits, now what exactly would the UK get by devaluation while being solely on WTO rules and without natural ressources nor nice warm sandy beaches?

Shockingly, the UK does more than just financial services. By value of output, the UK is #6 in the world for manufacturing, has the largest proven oil reserves of any EU state, we've the two largest creative centres in the EU (London + NW England), plus tons of other creative industries. Then there's smaller specialist sectors like defence, biotech, and so on. Devaluing means what we sell (be it sandy beaches or car engines) is more attractive to foreigners, so it'd be certainly one way of helping out whilst new deals are worked out with other countries (or trade blocs, in the case of say the EU).

Point is though, the UK won't be going broke or bankrupt or any other nonsense, which is what you were saying.

[Pann]

TBH whilst I like the title of #1 financial centre bouncing between New York and London, I'm not sure it'd do the UK economy much harm if the City was downsized a good bit. It's not really healthy for the economy to have this single giant brain drain for the entire country - it'd be good to have some other industries elsewhere in the UK to attract talent to.

The financial services industry brings around £66billion per annum in tax revenue which accounts for around 11% of the total tax revenue. This is before you start to take into account income from jobs that are reliant on them, such as cleaners, maintenance staff/contractors, pub and restaurant staff, etc. I am not sure how you reach the conclusion that losing a great part of that income and the subsequent increase in benefit payments from the resulting unemployment would not do much harm to the UK economy.

[dribbles]

Dear Germans,

As article 50 looks like being served on tues/weds and referencing the table below, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all Germans in advance for paying for Brexit. As they will most likely make up the UKs lost contributions. It only works out roughly at 400 euro for every German household every year.

Goodbye. Thank you again and good luck for the future.

Your loyal British friends. xxx

[Deleted]

The financial services industry brings around £66billion per annum in tax revenue which accounts for around 11% of the total tax revenue. This is before you start to take into account income from jobs that are reliant on them, such as cleaners, maintenance staff/contractors, pub and restaurant staff, etc. I am not sure how you reach the conclusion that losing a great part of that income and the subsequent increase in benefit payments from the resulting unemployment would not do much harm to the UK economy.

This is like saying welfare claimants bring in x billions a year. You have to take into consideration the money they are given for a fair assessment of how productive they are.

The city is a ponzi scheme subsidized by the state. If you got rid of it the economy would likely benefit.

[Snorkles]

Dear Germans,

As article 50 looks like being served on tues/weds and referencing the table below, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all Germans in advance for paying for Brexit. As they will most likely make up the UKs lost contributions. It only works out roughly at 400 euro for every German household every year.

Goodbye. Thank you again and good luck for the future.

Your loyal British friends. xxx

With attitudes like this I hope Germany and the rest of the EU fuck us for every penny.

[Deleted]

Dear Germans,

As article 50 looks like being served on tues/weds and referencing the table below, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all Germans in advance for paying for Brexit. As they will most likely make up the UKs lost contributions. It only works out roughly at 400 euro for every German household every year.

Goodbye. Thank you again and good luck for the future.

Your loyal British friends. xxx

It is this sort of attitude that puts me off about Brexiteers.

I voted to remain reluctantly. If an intelligent argument for Brexit had been made I might have changed my mind.

But the Brexiteers were pretty much all like this cunt. Full of themselves, gloating, xenophobic, hateful, stupid.

[Slant]

With attitudes like this I hope Germany and the rest of the EU fuck us for every penny.

That won't happen. Despite popular belief, the EU isn't really good at the whole revenge thing. And this is just one dude celebrating like the dudes that celebrated Trumps victory. This is just a drama queen enjoying herself, nothing more.

- - - Updated - - -

It is this sort of attitude that puts me off about Brexiteers.

I voted to remain reluctantly. If an intelligent argument for Brexit had been made I might have changed my mind.

But the Brexiteers were pretty much all like this cunt. Full of themselves, gloating, xenophobic, hateful, stupid.

And it's for guys like you two that I wanted Britain to remain, too. As it is, I have become rather pro-Brexit myself, if only to get rid of the trash. No offense, you know who I mean.

[Pann]

This is like saying welfare claimants bring in x billions a year. You have to take into consideration the money they are given for a fair assessment of how productive they are.

The city is a ponzi scheme subsidized by the state. If you got rid of it the economy would likely benefit.

No, it is not at all.

To be honest reading your post I am not sure if it is a result of sarcasm or ignorance.

[Teleros]

The financial services industry brings around £66billion per annum in tax revenue which accounts for around 11% of the total tax revenue. This is before you start to take into account income from jobs that are reliant on them, such as cleaners, maintenance staff/contractors, pub and restaurant staff, etc. I am not sure how you reach the conclusion that losing a great part of that income and the subsequent increase in benefit payments from the resulting unemployment would not do much harm to the UK economy.

I thought it was obvious from the context that I was talking about it going down and other sectors going up. Obviously it rakes in a huge amount of money for the economy, but my point was:

1. It's a brain drain from other industries. Why go into biotech when you can earn 10x as much moving money from A to B in the City of London?
2. Putting all your eggs in one basket is generally a bad idea. Heck, what would happen if ISIS set off a dirty nuke in London (I know they don't have any, but humour me)? That'd be a colossal economic cost - but if you had Silicon Valley up near Manchester, and Big Pharma over in Newcastle, and half of Europe's shipbuilding going on in Glasgow - ie, if the nation as a whole wasn't so dependent on London - then it would be a much smaller shock relative to the nation.

Going back to #1 a minute, I think the City as a brain drain has something of a social cost to it. For example, is it better to develop a new algorithm for high frequency trading, or to work on, say, the forefront of physics, or chemistry, or whatever? I mean, sure the HFT algorithm might make more money for the tax man (and let's not forget it'll probably help raise money for businesses seeking to grow etc), but what is the opportunity cost in terms of new inventions, or cures for diseases, etc?

I'm not saying the answer is one or the other - there are obviously pluses and minuses to both sides, but I do think it's a point worth considering.

[Theodarzna]

Mostly nonsense take for example

Quote 1) “That’s not possible; the UK will become an outsider to the European Union.”

then on the subject of an EU defense project
Quote 2) “In my mind, the UK, even outside the EU, should be associated with that,”

So on one hand UK will be cast out but on the other the EU will want to rope in the UK forces to help them. Or basically meet one of the big potential negotiating points.

Also the stuff on Trump not helping the UK, honestly I wouldn't underestimate how much Trump dislikes the EU and would see helping the UK as a way to help break the EU. After all if the UK leaves and succeeds others will be tempted to repeat it.

Then there's a legal opinion that's been floated which says the 50-60 billion bill UK may have is reliant on one thing happening - the negotiations been complete within 2 years. If either side opts to default and let time run out all agreements become null and void as to is the bill.

EU FeeFees are extremely hurt.