Brexit - Art 50 on Mar 29th

[Deleted]

It's more to do with being able to setup trade deals in a more dynamic fashion than the EU can. The EU needs agreement between all its members and any of them can throw a spanner in the works to drag the process out even longer just to get its own little concessions in. It's why trade deals with the EU can have run as long as 13 years in the making. Not to mention their rules on quotas.

yes, you are right we should give the EU more power so they can negotiation over the wishes of the nation states...
Oh wait...

[Tinch]

Yes, you were. However when you say that experts do not predict a recession the implication is that they do not agree with his point when the reality is that they have not predicted one because they do not have enough data to make the prediction.

Just look at the forecasts. Based on the data they have their best predictions are that there will not be a recession. As I've said, they could be horribly wrong but at present that is exactly what they are saying.

https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-...0-b48ed7b6126f

Even based on trading on WTO rules, the forecasts range from predicting anywhere from a 2-10% reduction in GDP growth. That is a slowing of the economy, but not a recession.

[dribbles]

In the meantime, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are moving employees to mainland Europe. The exodus of the banks is beginning...

https://www.theguardian.com/business...rankfurt-paris

Great news they are expanding yes? So they are moving a "few hundred" out of thousands and thousands of staff, hardly a mass exodus is it.

[Slant]

Great news they are expanding yes? So they are moving a "few hundred" out of thousands and thousands of staff, hardly a mass exodus is it.

That's some cute delusions there. Keep lying to yourself. Also, I didn't say mass exodus. Not even they know how much they're going to change as that depends on the state of the negotiations. But apparently, you're hell bent on pep-talking everything so it fits your dream. Go ahead, don't let me stop you.

[ranzino]

Goldman Sachs and co. would be stupid not to plan ahead and you cannot exit and keep the "finance passport". They need an office outside of UK and will not set up camp late in Feb 2019.

[Pann]

Just look at the forecasts. Based on the data they have their best predictions are that there will not be a recession. As I've said, they could be horribly wrong but at present that is exactly what they are saying.

https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-...0-b48ed7b6126f

Even based on trading on WTO rules, the forecasts range from predicting anywhere from a 2-10% reduction in GDP growth. That is a slowing of the economy, but not a recession.

That was published the day after the referendum and as such some of the predictions are already out of date.

There are other (unknown) factors at play which could mean that a slow down in growth could cause a recession which why the people making the predictions choose their language very carefully and do not state either way.

However I leave with what the Treasury had to say about these predictions;

Isn't a forecast for 2030 absurd, since economic forecasts for even two years ahead fail?

This is to misunderstand the exercise the Treasury has carried out. As stated, the Treasury is estimating the difference between two possible futures on the basis of a decision regarding Britain’s trading relationship. That does not require accurate forecasts, just a good understanding of the effect of trade on prosperity.

It is the same as saying, “We do not know how heavy you will be in 15 years, but if you drink a bottle of cola a day, we are pretty sure you will be fatter than if you keep off the sugar.”

Alternatively: “We do not know when you will die, but are pretty sure it will be earlier if you maintain your 20-a-day cigarette habit.”

[Okacz]

Nice democracy m8

Hey, democracy is all about choice. People disliking and arguing with said choice is fair game tho. In fact, it's a good thing, since it can lead to a discussion and then to a better choice next time.

Reminds me of a quote "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it", not sure from whom it was tho.

[Deleted]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-major-routes
every day is getting naicer

[Slant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-major-routes
every day is getting naicer

I like this move. You don't see EgyptAir maintaining a Berlin-Frankfurt route for a reason.

[Bakis]

Great news they are expanding yes? So they are moving a "few hundred" out of thousands and thousands of staff, hardly a mass exodus is it.

UK will be an important hub but the days of being the financial center are gone. It will hurt the UK for sure.
The new powerhouse will probably be Frankfurt.

[Deleted]

at least we are making jobs out of it

[dribbles]

Goldman Sachs and co. would be stupid not to plan ahead and you cannot exit and keep the "finance passport". They need an office outside of UK and will not set up camp late in Feb 2019.

Goldman Sachs major £1/2 bn investment in its glistening new London HQ coming to fruition and still on course to open next year, more great brexit news! Just being fitted out....

http://www.building.co.uk/isg-bags-%...086284.article

I like this move. You don't see EgyptAir maintaining a Berlin-Frankfurt route for a reason.

Why do you like terrible news for Europe? Or is it just the Irish you want to hurt? Got to be awful news for Irish based Ryanair and employees. Oh well if the EU want to shoot themselves in the foot, Britain can't stop them any more. Another perk the EU has lost from Brexit, prevention of self-harm.

The new powerhouse will probably be Frankfurt.

Probably? Germany already is the EU and the EU is Germany, if in Sweden you are happy with your German masters policies then no problem, enjoy!

[Deleted]

Why do you like terrible news for Europe? Or is it just the Irish you want to hurt? Got to be awful news for Irish based Ryanair and employees. Oh well if the EU want to shoot themselves in the foot, Britain can't stop them any more. Another perk the EU has lost from Brexit, prevention of self-harm.

"Ryanair is headquartered in Ireland, and will not have to relocate, but it has been reported that 60% of the Dublin-registered airline’s capital shares are owned by EU nationals. This will be reduced to 40% once UK shareholders are excluded, making it vital to increase its EU ownership to comply with regulations."
no, ryanair will not get a really hard time.

[dribbles]

"Ryanair is headquartered in Ireland, and will not have to relocate, but it has been reported that 60% of the Dublin-registered airline’s capital shares are owned by EU nationals. This will be reduced to 40% once UK shareholders are excluded, making it vital to increase its EU ownership to comply with regulations."
no, ryanair will not get a really hard time.

Didn't Michael O Leary describe it as armagedon? Oh maybe that's not a hard time, doesn't sound like a celebration to me though for the EU based airline.

[Mayhem]

Didn't Michael O Leary describe it as armagedon? Oh maybe that's not a hard time, doesn't sound like a celebration to me though for the EU based airline.

"Michael O’Leary, has already warned of the huge dangers to the industry of a “cliff-edge” Brexit, and criticised the “mildly lunatic optimism” of the British government."

[Deleted]

"Michael O’Leary, has already warned of the huge dangers to the industry of a “cliff-edge” Brexit, and criticised the “mildly lunatic optimism” of the British government."

i have to add
-One executive does not discount the European commission’s warning. Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair – who campaigned in vain against what he calls “the stupidest decision the Brits have ever made” – says: “There isn’t going to be another arrangement. There’s a real prospect that the UK will be dumped out.”

armageddon? yes, but for the uk seems

[Bakis]

Probably? Germany already is the EU and the EU is Germany, if in Sweden you are happy with your German masters policies then no problem, enjoy!

You really fear Germany dont you, you are like Cybran v2. I can buy you a teddy bear so you sleep better at night.

[durrtygoodz]

Hey, democracy is all about choice. People disliking and arguing with said choice is fair game tho. In fact, it's a good thing, since it can lead to a discussion and then to a better choice next time.

Reminds me of a quote "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it", not sure from whom it was tho.

Telling people on the opposite side to die in a fire doesnt leave much room for discussion.

[dribbles]

You really fear Germany dont you, you are like Cybran v2. I can buy you a teddy bear so you sleep better at night.

Fear is not the right word, begrudging respect maybe but a healthy distrust for sure.

[Okacz]

Telling people on the opposite side to die in a fire doesnt leave much room for discussion.

Being anonymus removes all restrains for some people that keeps them for being jackasses. That's a whole another topic.