Brexit - Art 50 on Mar 29th

[Mizix]

People need to stop talking like that. Leaving the EU doesn't "come at a price". You don't "pay a fee" to get out. What actually happens is called "economic realities".

That's what I meant with "high price". Not literally an "exit fee" (which is also on the table btw) but rather a set of economical, financial and political consequences. For instance, the inability to renegotiate trade deals as advantageous to the UK as they are now because the EU doesn't have any interest in sweet talking the Brits into joining the union this time, so it's likely they won't get the same favorable treatment they received in the past. Same thing happened with Switzerland: at first the EU was eager to comply with Swiss requests for special treatment but as the Union grew stronger and the Swiss electorate turned down the first deal (to join the EEA), Switzerland lost part of its negotiating power and had to accept less favorable conditions.

[Tinch]

See, guys, this is what I mean. I keep basically quoting the letter from May herself and somehow Farage and Johnson shat into UK people's heads so hard, they still don't know what the fuss is about. No, it's not about membership, it's about access to the single market. So what are you on about?

And I'm not making it sound worse than it is, I'm telling you that you were lied to during the campaign. They promised rainbow shitting flying ponies to you and you will not get them. Ever. You were duped.

The EU doesn't "want to play" it at all. They will play it, because that's what the EU does. But the UK needs to come to terms very quickly about what it is they are about to do. And they'll have to stop dreaming up conditions and scenarios that are not realistic. The EU doesn't do unrealistic dream castle negotiating. And unlike the UK, the EU has actually simulated and exercised a possible hard Brexit without any negotiations. Just to see what would happen.

"The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market" - That is the statement you quoted word for word. Notice the word membership. As has been said countless times, every country in the world theoretically has access to the single market.

I couldn't give a shit about Farage or Boris, neither does the majority of the country. Yet another caricature created by the other side that has no basis in reality.

If that is the case then they will know a bad deal will be incredibly damaging for the EU too. Lets not act like the UK is going to fall into destitution and the EU is going to sail off into the sunset.

[ranzino]

As for "Good Friday" RoI is a Non-EU Border then. By no means UK is supposed to enter Rep Ireland without proper screening: EU members are obligated to do so.
So unless UK abandons NI to RoI or NI is adamant about screening everybody and their grandma upon entering their territory from England+Wales, UK has a problem.

[Slant]

"The United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market" - That is the statement you quoted word for word. Notice the word membership. As has been said countless times, every country in the world theoretically has access to the single market.

I couldn't give a shit about Farage or Boris, neither does the majority of the country. Yet another caricature created by the other side that has no basis in reality.

If that is the case then they will know a bad deal will be incredibly damaging for the EU too. Lets not act like the UK is going to fall into destitution and the EU is going to sail off into the sunset.

Apparently you haven't followed the Brexit discussion at all. Congratulations, you've talked your way into a semantic non-sequitur. Apparently you do not want passporting. If that is the case, great, we're in agreement.

And please stop the whole "but it'll hurt the EU, too!" The EU knows that. And they have prepared for it for almost a year now. That's not impressing anyone. It's a really unrealiable straw you're clinging to. The EU will not cave to the UK "out of self interest". Quite the opposite.

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Because then it an agreement based purely on economical terms. If the EU was simply a comprehensive free trade area, then its doubtful there would have been a Brexit at all. What most people object to is the political union that comes with the EU.

Its already been established that EU law will simply be recognised in UK law in its entirety initially, which will be followed by a long process of repealing/amending any regulation the UK decides it doesn't want to have.

Next to 0% chance of that happening. Both sides have already made it clear that they have no intention of jeopardising the Good Friday Agreement.

I don't think I've seen a single person from the leave side talk about re-establishing the empire or anything remotely like it, its just a straw man argument.

What most people object to is shit that doesn't exist. That's the core of it. Now they're looking for anything to legitimise their mistake. The political union? Nobody gave two shits about that in the UK for the longest time. Until someone duped them and lied about the undemocratic nature of the EU, which is a factual lie. Or how the UK is somehow not sovereign, which is also a lie.

And then someone started talking about economics and how the UK is paying more than it got back and that's when people perked up and listened. And how the UK can't control where their money goes and what regulations they have. And what's the first thing you do? Say you just copy all regulations the EU have currently. Like what the fuck is going on in your minds? So there's no inherent problem with the regulations, but it's just that it doesn't have the "made in the UK" label that's motivating you to do this shitshow? Seriously?

At the rate you're passing regulation, you'll be almost done before you decide to rejoin the EU, I wager.

As for the Good Friday agreement. You'll have to once more learn what the real world looks like. It's not that I said Ireland would fuck the GFA the second Brexit happens. What I'm saying is that Ireland has no say in it and will have to control it's outer EU borders! Good Friday is a problem in that the EU isn't concerned with the NI situation but very much concerned with protecting its outer border. Guess what? In a Brexit, the RoI/NI border will become an "outer border". And that will introduce proper border control. Or did you really think anyone in the EU would play hardball with the UK and then leave them that backdoor open? Just how stupid do you think Brussels is?

The UK will have to resolve that situation from their side. This is not the EU's problem, this is why you wanted Brexit. So you could deal with shit on your own. Now deal with it.

I'm not saying anyone wanted to reestablish the Empire. I'm saying some people here talk as if it never ceased to exist. With that pompous arrogance that things will go England's way, because... Empire or something. They never give any good arguments, always going "But the UK is bigger than the EU" and then I get these uncontrolable fits of laughter and can't follow their line of reasoning any longer...

[caervek]

Personally, I don't see why NI shouldn't merge into Ireland. :P

Because they don't want to?

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The political union? Nobody gave two shits about that in the UK for the longest time.

Actually that's not true, when the EEC was converted from a trade union into the EU back it 1993 it was vastly unpopular in the UK, a political union was not something we ever wanted any part of.

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Guess what? In a Brexit, the RoI/NI border will become an "outer border". And that will introduce proper border control

Neither Ireland nor the UK are going to close the open border, if the EU have a problem with that then that's their problem (and yes I do see the comical issue there when the easiest route for immigrants to sneak into the UK still exists, I was just pointing out it would remain unchanged).

[Tinch]

Apparently you haven't followed the Brexit discussion at all. Congratulations, you've talked your way into a semantic non-sequitur. Apparently you do not want passporting. If that is the case, great, we're in agreement.

Its actually a pretty important distinction to make with tangible differences. Nowhere have I even mentioned passporting - of course I would like the UK to have it but I'm not going to pretend that I know how the negotiations will pan out.

And please stop the whole "but it'll hurt the EU, too!" The EU knows that. And they have prepared for it for almost a year now. That's not impressing anyone. It's a really unrealiable straw you're clinging to. The EU will not cave to the UK "out of self interest". Quite the opposite.

Prepared for it how exactly?

What most people object to is shit that doesn't exist. That's the core of it. Now they're looking for anything to legitimise their mistake. The political union? Nobody gave two shits about that in the UK for the longest time. Until someone duped them and lied about the undemocratic nature of the EU, which is a factual lie. Or how the UK is somehow not sovereign, which is also a lie.

And then someone started talking about economics and how the UK is paying more than it got back and that's when people perked up and listened. And how the UK can't control where their money goes and what regulations they have. And what's the first thing you do? Say you just copy all regulations the EU have currently. Like what the fuck is going on in your minds? So there's no inherent problem with the regulations, but it's just that it doesn't have the "made in the UK" label that's motivating you to do this shitshow? Seriously?

Supremacy of EU law and freedom of movement certainly do exist. Those seem to be the key elements that swung the vote.

Euroscepticism has a long history in the UK, its always been one of the least pro-European countries in the EU. Of course that was significantly stirred up once the referendum was announced, but it has always been there.

As for the Good Friday agreement. You'll have to once more learn what the real world looks like. It's not that I said Ireland would fuck the GFA the second Brexit happens. What I'm saying is that Ireland has no say in it and will have to control it's outer EU borders! Good Friday is a problem in that the EU isn't concerned with the NI situation but very much concerned with protecting its outer border. Guess what? In a Brexit, the RoI/NI border will become an "outer border". And that will introduce proper border control. Or did you really think anyone in the EU would play hardball with the UK and then leave them that backdoor open? Just how stupid do you think Brussels is?

The UK will have to resolve that situation from their side. This is not the EU's problem, this is why you wanted Brexit. So you could deal with shit on your own. Now deal with it.

You sound like someone who hasn't been following the debate. A number of EU officials, including Juncker, have already made it clear they don't want a hard border.

[Deleted]

This "We hold many cards which they do not" prattel made by the Chosen Ones is so dull.

[Slant]

Neither Ireland nor the UK are going to close the open border, if the EU have a problem with that then that's their problem (and yes I do see the comical issue there when the easiest route for immigrants to sneak into the UK still exists, I was just pointing out it would remain unchanged).

They might not close the open border. But Ireland will. That's what I'm talking about. Whatever the UK does is the business of the UK. But the other side of the border very much needs to be sealed off and subject to proper border control and customs inspections, like any other regular border on the planet. Out means out.

Oh, that was in the 90s. But since then? I haven't heard much rumbling from the UK except whenever a PM started bitching about the UK again. You know you can create unrest just by talking bad about something easily enough. Nah man, the political union never affected the UK more than the economic union, which is largely responsible for those 17k regulations that the UK lives with today.

Edit: And this goes for you as well, this is a scenario where negotiations break down and we're facing a default Art 50 situation. Not a negotiated deal where this question is actually solved.

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You sound like someone who hasn't been following the debate. A number of EU officials, including Juncker, have already made it clear they don't want a hard border.

And I was talking about a hard Brexit with default separation as per Article 50. Keep up with the conversation instead of derailing it so you're right in your nitpicking.

[caervek]

They might not close the open border. But Ireland will.

So, you acknowledge that neither the UK nor Ireland will close the border but think that Ireland will? :P

Seriously, it's never going to happen as has been stated by both governments. If the EU want to throw a fit over it and risk trashing their relationship with Ireland was well as the UK that's their choice but it still won't happen.

The EU is 24 years old, Ireland and Britain have been around a tad longer than that, you're not going to break either of us.

[Slant]

So, you acknowledge that neither the UK nor Ireland will close the border but think that Ireland will? :P

Seriously, it's never going to happen as has been stated by both governments. If the EU want to throw a fit over it and risk trashing their relationship with Ireland was well as the UK that's their choice but it still won't happen.

The EU is 24 years old, Ireland and Britain have been around a tad longer than that, you're not going to break either of us.

I thought you said Northern Ireland. In the case of an Art. 50 un-negotiated Brexit, Ireland will close the border. That's not even up for debate. That's an automatic reality. They may not want it, but it's not like they have much say over it. Ireland, much like Greece or Poland, has an obligation to guard the EU's outer border. They may not like it, but there it is. They signed that shit when they entered the Union.

[Pann]

They might not close the open border. But Ireland will. That's what I'm talking about. Whatever the UK does is the business of the UK. But the other side of the border very much needs to be sealed off and subject to proper border control and customs inspections, like any other regular border on the planet. Out means out.

I doubt Ireland will close their border neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic will want to risk the peace process. There is no reason why, with Ireland's unique geography, that an exception cannot be made to EU border control policies.

[Slant]

I doubt Ireland will close their border neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic will want to risk the peace process. There is no reason why, with Ireland's unique geography, that an exception cannot be made to EU border control policies.

Again... IT WILL BE AN OUTER BORDER OF THE EU in case Brexit negotiations don't come through. This is literally the worst case scenario. Do you understand how this gives the EU even more leverage over the UK?

And people tell me the UK has a great positition to negotiate from...

Let's just go with your scenario... hard Brexit, the UK is now a third country outside the EU with no trade agreements and no access to the single market and WTO style customs. Now, other countries used the UK as a gateway to mainland Europe. Now they can't anymore. Except, they still can! Just go to the UK, move to Ireland and bam, you're inside the single market area! Bloody awesome!

What the fuck do you think the EU is going to think about that? Does anyone seriously think they will leave that backdoor wide open? They can't. They will have to slam it shut hard, otherwise the whole Brexit idea is just bullshit and the UK can actually start exploiting the EU and start milking that shit on their own terms. Does anyone not insane think that's a remote possibility? Why the fuck would the EU not abandon Ireland rather than leave themselves wide open like that? Jesus...

[caervek]

I thought you said Northern Ireland. In the case of an Art. 50 un-negotiated Brexit, Ireland will close the border.

No it will not, they have already said they will not and no amount of EU bullying is going to make them fall in line.

There is also a note of comedy to why this is even an argument, as the status of the border is of no actual concern/relevance to the EU anyway. I mean, Ireland is an island, the only land border is between RoI and the UK, what reason exactly does the EU have to want it closed? The fear that immigrants from the UK will cross the border then travel from Ireland to Poland and steal jobs? lol.

Seriously I can understand the danger of the EU having an open land boarder in mainland Europe. But in this case it's already secured due to being on an island with protected sea borders around the perimeter. I mean is the EU scared that terrorists will sail to Ireland, land on a beach in Northern Ireland, cross the border into the Republic of Ireland and then jump on a plane to Paris? Why would they bother doing that when they could just land on a beach in the RoI i the first place.

[Pann]

Again... IT WILL BE AN OUTER BORDER OF THE EU in case Brexit negotiations don't come through. This is literally the worst case scenario. Do you understand how this gives the EU even more leverage over the UK?

And people tell me the UK has a great positition to negotiate from...

Let's just go with your scenario... hard Brexit, the UK is now a third country outside the EU with no trade agreements and no access to the single market and WTO style customs. Now, other countries used the UK as a gateway to mainland Europe. Now they can't anymore. Except, they still can! Just go to the UK, move to Ireland and bam, you're inside the single market area! Bloody awesome!

What the fuck do you think the EU is going to think about that? Does anyone seriously think they will leave that backdoor wide open? They can't. They will have to slam it shut hard, otherwise the whole Brexit idea is just bullshit and the UK can actually start exploiting the EU and start milking that shit on their own terms. Does anyone not insane think that's a remote possibility? Why the fuck would the EU not abandon Ireland rather than leave themselves wide open like that? Jesus...

I have no idea why you feel the need to be so rude. Knock it off!

The history of troubles means that an exception will be made. Trade is one thing, but a return to terrorist attacks and innocent people being killed is another. No-one has the appetite for that - not the UK, the ROI or the EU none of them are not going to put their citizens in this position regardless of what deals are or are not negotiated.

I made no mention of the position the UK is in when it comes to negotiations.

That is not my scenario.

Honestly you need to calm down.

[Slant]

No it will not, they have already said they will not and no amount of EU bullying is going to make them fall in line.

There is also a note of comedy to why this is even an argument, as the status of the border is of no actual concern/relevance to the EU anyway. I mean, Ireland is an island, the only land border is between RoI and the UK, what reason exactly does the EU have to want it closed? The fear that immigrants from the UK will cross the border then travel from Ireland to Poland and steal jobs? lol.

Seriously I can understand the danger of the EU having an open land boarder in mainland Europe. But in this case it's already secured due to being on an island with protected sea borders around the perimeter. I mean is the EU scared that terrorists will sail to Ireland, land on a beach in Northern Ireland, cross the border into the Republic of Ireland and then jump on a plane to Paris? Why would they bother doing that when they could just land on a beach in the RoI i the first place.

Who's talking about PEOPLE moving across the border? Nobody gives two fucks about PEOPLE crossing the border. I'm talking about the UK circumventing customs and other shit through that open hole. That's not going to happen.

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I have no idea why you feel the need to be so rude. Knock it off!

The history of troubles means that an exception will be made. Trade is one thing, but a return to terrorist attacks and innocent people being killed is another. No-one has the appetite for that - not the UK, the ROI or the EU none of them are not going to put their citizens in this position regardless of what deals are or are not negotiated.

I made no mention of the position the UK is in when it comes to negotiations.

That is not my scenario.

Honestly you need to calm down.

The history of the troubles means that the UK hopes they can negotiate conditions that will enable them to honour the Good Friday Agreement. It's by no means an automatic consequence. Which part of "out means out" was unclear to you guys when you voted for the Brexit? It's not really the EU's concern that you just now noticed there are problems evolving from that decision. It's up to you to live and adjust with the consequences. We warned you often enough. But somehow the UK still thinks the world will rearrange itself to its will. This is why we're sitting here waiting for your faces when you realise just how much shit this brought down on all of us. Don't expect me to be thankful about that.

[Teleros]

That's most definitely what the rest of the world talked about. I know that it's not what the UK talked about.

Let's see now...


Posted Jan 13th 2017 (https://order-order.com/2017/01/13/d...s-guide-brexit)

So at one extreme, "hard" (or "clean") Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement of people, leaving the EU single market and trading with the EU as if it were any other country outside Europe, based on World Trade Organization rules.
...
At the other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit might involve some form of membership of the European Union single market, in return for a degree of free movement.

15th Jan 2016 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37507129)

http://www.cityam.com/250584/forget-...k-clean-brexit
3rd Oct 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7342591.html
3rd Oct 2016

Supporters of a "soft" Brexit imagine a future where the UK retains some form of membership of the European Union single market in return for a degree of free movement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37500140
29th Sept 2016

A hard Brexit arrangement means the U.K. will give up full access to the E.U's single market in order to have full control over its borders. It would also likely mean a withdrawal from the E.U.'s customs union.
...
A "soft Brexit" — which some in industry and in Theresa May's own Conservative Party had wanted — would have allowed Britain to retain some form of access to the single market by maintaining the free movement of people. However as the HSBC report of 2015 said, this would have kept much of the status quo intact — which is not what 52% of voters wanted when they chose Brexit last year.

17th Jan 2017 (http://time.com/4635762/theresa-may-hard-brexit-britain)

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/po...rexit-12264497
2nd Dec 2016

http://www.theweek.co.uk/78355/what-...nd-soft-brexit
4th Nov 2016

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...actually-mean/
26 Sept 2016

There's plenty more out there if you know how to use Google. But notice the very clear trend amongst all that stuff - a "soft Brexit" means being in the EEA, meaning the single market and all that stuff. Got it?

But the UK also promised Brexiters that they would get access to the single market while being able to restrict freedom of movement.

Some of the Brexit campaigns may have promised that, but "the UK" certainly didn't. To give another example of mixed messaging, the Brexit campaigns were split over the whole "£350M for NHS" thing too.

In that sense, they were just about as creditable as the German beer party that literally went into an election campaign promising free beer for everyone. Difference is... Germans apparently can spot a joke and still make a serious election decision. That's why you don't see the beer party ruling Germany today.

Pity. Would probably have done better than Merkel :P .

Copy/Pasting trade agreements may be beneficial for the UK. But you're forgetting that the UK doesn't decide which kind of trade agreement it has alone. The other side has something to say about it, too. You do realise that literally no country will just take the UK adopting EU's trade agreements without renegotiating those terms, right? Heck, not even the EU would ever get the same trade agreements again, considering that the political landscapes on the planet are constantly in flux.

Of course.

The only reason why the world wants good relations with the UK is access to the single market.

This is so delusional I don't know where to start, quite frankly. I can understand having this kind of view about a rival nation in a total war, like WW2 or something. It's an existential crisis for your nation, and if raw hatred of the other side can help motivate your people then so be it, it's ugly but that's life sometimes.

But over membership of an international organisation, you've gone past "mistaken", sped past "wrong", waved goodbye to "insane" as it disappeared in your rear-view mirror, and have arrived in some strange, hate-fuelled la-la make-believe land of your own devising.

Please, for your own sake, calm down and start writing more rationally.

"Laissez faire" doesn't go well in legislation.

Meaning what, exactly? "Tory government cuts so-many-thousand EU regulations after Brexit" is good news for Tory voters in the UK. We like that kind of stuff.

A back door for Merkel's "refugees"? First, why the quotes?

Because I don't consider them real refugees, obviously. Was it really obvious to you?

Second... the UK took around 4k of those refugees. While Germany took 1.5 million or so. Are you fucking shitting me? What the fuck are you worried about?

I'm worried about them getting freedom to travel to Ireland, then hopping across the border into Northern Ireland. Thank God the Irish aren't in the Schengen Area, so there's at least that making it harder for now. Also, I know the UK took in around four thousand, but frankly that's four thousand too many as it is. No more, TYVM.

You contribute fuck all to the European project anyway.

In that case the sooner we're out the better, no ?

And I get the Empire thing from all the posts that I read on here. You guys are suffering from serious delusions of grandeur while ignoring that the rest of the world apparently seems to live in another reality than you do.

Sure they weren't needling you & like-minded souls ?

[Pann]

Who's talking about PEOPLE moving across the border? Nobody gives two fucks about PEOPLE crossing the border. I'm talking about the UK circumventing customs and other shit through that open hole. That's not going to happen.

Seriously stop and think about the logistics and the practicality of such a situation. The sheer cost of shipping goods to the ROI via Northern Ireland and then on to the EU from the mainland UK would far out strip any customs tariff. This is before you take into account the risk to the business and the people working for it if their fraud was discovered.

The history of the troubles means that the UK hopes they can negotiate conditions that will enable them to honour the Good Friday Agreement. It's by no means an automatic consequence. Which part of "out means out" was unclear to you guys when you voted for the Brexit? It's not really the EU's concern that you just now noticed there are problems evolving from that decision. It's up to you to live and adjust with the consequences. We warned you often enough. But somehow the UK still thinks the world will rearrange itself to its will. This is why we're sitting here waiting for your faces when you realise just how much shit this brought down on all of us. Don't expect me to be thankful about that.

Honestly you are beginning to sound like the flip side of the Dribbles coin.

There are going to be difficulties reaching a deal but no-one involved in the negotiations is going to risk the safety of their citizens. It is absolutely the EU's concern that one of its member states could have a terrorist conflict on their door step.

[Phlegethon]

So, apparently, there are plans to trigger Article 50:

Well, the referendum was held 9 months ago. Glad you caught up with the rest of the world...
:roll:

[ranzino]

Well, the referendum was held 9 months ago. Glad you caught up with the rest of the world...
:roll:

To quote Donald Tusk yesterday: after 9 months UK has delivered. Brexit was NOT so obvious in its shape but 25 h ago.

[Deleted]

Hammond saying 'we can't have our cake and eat it'
All of leaves promises being binned.
All the pro leave lot doing very little media and leaving it for Hammond, May + Green to torpedo thier careers instead.

hahahaha