UK PM Theresa May to seek snap election.

[Kalis]

Labour are still not able to get voters away from the Conservatives...



A slight increase in their numbers and the Conservatives could get 50% or more of the voters, which would be the first time any party has managed to do that since the Conservatives in 1931 (55.5%).

The last three times any parties got votes in the high 40s were Conservatives in 1955 (49.7%) and 1959 (49.4%), and Labour in 1966 (48%). The best Thatcher achieved was 43.9% in 1979, Blair managed a similar figure of 43.3% in his best win, 1997.

The biggest post-war margin of victory is 1983, when Thatcher's Conservatives had 14.8% more of the vote than the Labour Party led my Michael Foot. The largest I can find is the 24.7% margin of victory enjoyed by the Conservatives in the 1931 election mentioned earlier, I highly doubt May will come close to that.

[Deleted]

Thing is though, we will crash and burn with them. Independence has never look so appealing as it does now.

It's not independence. Only swapping out an old boss for some other one and Scotland's enough of a nanny state as it is.

[Deleted]

It's not independence. Only swapping out an old boss for some other one and Scotland's enough of a nanny state as it is.

the 'new' boss is at least constitutionally required to give a shit about you.

[Tinch]

Thing is though, we will crash and burn with them. Independence has never look so appealing as it does now.

If you think independence is the best thing for Scotland regardless of the economic impact then fair enough, but I still cannot get my head around how independence voters can think that leaving the EU is going to be a catastrophe for the UK, yet somehow in the same breath say that Scotland would be better off leaving the UK too.

The economies of Scotland and rUK are far more interconnected than the economies of the UK and the EU have ever been. If you expect the UK to get a terrible deal with the EU, to think that an independent Scotland would be financially stronger in this scenario is just illogical.

[Kalis]

A graphic showing majority support for the parties by region, comparing 2015 election to current polling...



Of the four regions that are not blue:

North East - Labour lead Tories by 2%, down from a lead of 22% in 2015.
North West - Labour and Tories equal, down from a Labour lead of 13.

Both these regions would turn blue if the Tories can capture half of the remaining UKIP votes (UKIP are polling 8 in NE, 6 in NW), this is not beyond the realms of possibility.

London - Labour lead by 5, down from 9.

The Tories would need to capture the entire remaining UKIP vote in order to overtake Labour (UKIP are polling 6), but this is unlikely.

Scotland - SNP lead Tories by 13, down from 35.

UKIP are virtually irrelevant in Scotland (polling 2), the Tories need to take Labour voters to challenge the SNP. Labour are now polling third, down from a lead of 9 over the Tories to a deficit of 10.


In order to have a chance of winning this election Labour need to find a way to take large numbers of voters from the Lib Dems and SNP, as well as eat into the Tory vote. As it stands, Lib Dems seem to be eating into Labour, UKIP are going Tory and Tories are staying Tory.

The SNP seem to be losing some votes, but to the Tories, though not enough to significantly weaken the SNP. Obviously that is not helping Labour and they also appear to be losing votes to the Tories in Scotland.

- - - Updated - - -

This is primarily a Brexit General Election, the following graphic illustrates why Labour becoming an anti-Brexit party (like the Lib Dems) would make matters even worse for them...



They would be going after a maximum of a third of the votes, the 52 vs 48 narrative is broken, it is now 68 vs 22 (with 10 undecideds).

To be fair to Corbyn he accepted the referendum result, probably because he has always been anti-EU, but in that one moment where he actually showed any sort of leadership it ripped the party apart.

The Tories positioned themselves as the party to deliver Brexit, the Lib Dems as the party to oppose Brexit and Labour as the party in civil war over Brexit.

[dribbles]

If only this visionary was here to see it.

[Deleted]

If only this visionary was here to see it.

She hung out with a paedo you know. Invited him round for Christmas every year.

Maybe she should have used her psychic powers on her mates.

[Teleros]

How so?

Just look at government spending as a % GDP for starters. For the UK as a whole it's ~41%, but in Scotland it's closer to 55%. Basically, the Scottish government is spending more and doing more, but without guns getting involved, which is pretty much the definition of a nanny state :P .

I mean, there's bonkers stuff like this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...f-parents.html

Seriously, WTF?

= + =

If you think independence is the best thing for Scotland regardless of the economic impact then fair enough, but I still cannot get my head around how independence voters can think that leaving the EU is going to be a catastrophe for the UK, yet somehow in the same breath say that Scotland would be better off leaving the UK too.

The economies of Scotland and rUK are far more interconnected than the economies of the UK and the EU have ever been. If you expect the UK to get a terrible deal with the EU, to think that an independent Scotland would be financially stronger in this scenario is just illogical.

Scotland would likely recover, though it might be unpleasant, given they simply don't have the economic clout with the rUK that the UK has when compared to the EU, have a big deficit, etc.

The really bizarre one from the SNP types is how Scotland should leave the UK... then become a puppet of Germany - ie, join the EU instead. To me, that's about as far from being in favour of an independent Scotland as being a pro-UK Scotsman.

= + =

North East - Labour lead Tories by 2%, down from a lead of 22% in 2015.
North West - Labour and Tories equal, down from a Labour lead of 13.

Both these regions would turn blue if the Tories can capture half of the remaining UKIP votes (UKIP are polling 8 in NE, 6 in NW), this is not beyond the realms of possibility.

I think UKIP will split the Brexit vote and give quite a few seats to Labour in the NW/NE.

London - Labour lead by 5, down from 9.

I think London will largely go to Labour (or the left in general) too - too many of the chattering hardcore Remainers there.

Scotland - SNP lead Tories by 13, down from 35.

This is the really interesting one IMHO. Although Scotland was mostly pro-Remain, there was a very large minority in favour of Brexit, and given Labour's general incoherence and/or untrustworthiness, it looks like the Tories could pick up a few seats north of the border, which would be astonishing given how they normally do up there. Not sure we can count on that to be repeated once Brexit is over, but it's worth keeping an eye on IMHO.

In order to have a chance of winning this election Labour need divine intervention

Fixed that for you :P . Let's be honest, it ain't happening.

To be fair to Corbyn he accepted the referendum result, probably because he has always been anti-EU, but in that one moment where he actually showed any sort of leadership it ripped the party apart.

Yeah. I think he's a closet Brexiteer - albeit for very different reasons than the Tories - but if he somehow got into Number 10 then I can't see him leading his party to concluding the Brexit talks at all. Aside from the many Labour supporters, MPs etc who are Remainers (if not outright Remoaners), his refusal so far to support the idea of no deal being better than a bad one will hobble him in the negotiations.

[rogueMatthias]

So now Corbyn's also going to buy back all the water systems too, AND has pledged 30 hours a week free childcare for everyone. I"m guessing the money from al this is coming from "charge the rich even more".

I'm not against nationalisation of these services (though putting it all in the hands of empowered Unions again is a hilariously awful idea) and some of his ideas are good... but I feel he's just plucking ideas out of the air to appease everyone with no fucking clue at all how any of it can get paid. He's pushing well over 100bn in extra spending plans now.

I'd be suprised if by the end of the week he's not pledging free steak and chips for everyone. (paid for by those rich bastards again obviously).

[Deleted]

How so?

/10char

Some topics I can think of are anti smoking,airguns, licensing, alcohol, child spying, speed limits*, mean tweets, anti free speech and plenty of parliament are SJWs.


* which actually make sense because of the piss poor state of the roads up there.

[Kalis]

And Corbyn has appointed a man who left the Communist Party in December.

Has anyone checked William Hill in Islington to see if Jeremy has put a bet on Labour getting no seats? He is a Daily Mail headline writer's wet dream.

[draykorinee]

Ex communist......Another own goal from JC.

The manifesto he's just come out with screams "Who's paying for it?"

[Kalis]

Ex communist......Another own goal from JC.

The manifesto he's just come out with screams "Who's paying for it?"

Labour have this simplistic view of economics, whereby if you increase corporation tax from 19% to 26%, then you will see a linear increase in revenue. However, last year corporation tax fell by 1% and revenue increased by over 12%.

Similarly, Hollande increased personal income tax levels in France for high earners, so the rich Frenchies moved to London and paid tax to us instead.

Perhaps McDonnell let Abbott do the calculations, who knows?

[Deleted]

It's a good manifesto. The costing's are also all listed. Of course, increasing a percentage here doesn't actually gain you said money due to many number of variables. But Austerity and cuts don't work either. I'm not sure why the tories are so trusted with the economy. Oh yeah, Slogans and constant media bashing.

Labour comes under fire for proposing policies and their costs associated. Tories constantly get away with "Dunno, growing economy?"

[Deleted]

If only this visionary was here to see it.

Yes, doing what the Americans want is a sign of strength, telling a superpower NO, is a sign of weakness - Her dementia must have struck earlier than we thought.

[rogueMatthias]

The manifesto he's just come out with screams "Who's paying for it?"

RICH PEOPLE! Those bastards have it coming. As someone who's normally a Labour supporter with more socialist ideals, even I'm worried about Corbyn.

I'm starting to think that Corbyn isn't the idiot we all had him pegged for. I think he’s actually just incredibly Arrogant and hates any authority that's not himself. Would explain why he was so pro-IRA when he didn't even live in Ireland, and why he gets along so well with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Even some of his policies are more in place to spite anyone with money than they are to help people without.
Like “free school lunches” paid by people at public school. Free School lunches are already means tested, if he thinks the tests aren't good enough refine them. There’s literally no reason to say that no matter what parents are earning, state school students should have their food paid for by public school parents.

Likewise, It’s the same with the FREE childcare for everyone. It seems a good idea, but it's bizzarre it's for EVERYBODY, even if neither parent are in or seeking employment. Why use tax payers money so people can have their kids in childcare for 30 hours a week… so they can watch TV in peace without them?

I fear under Corbyn we're going to wrack up insane debts, the nationalised services will all be unionised and hold the country to hostage every few weeks, and anyone who'd actually be paying for all this stuff is going to have enough of him scraping every penny he can from them, and find more ways around paying for any of it.

But on the other side.. Theresa May :'( UH. We're screwed.

[Deleted]

Scotland would likely recover, though it might be unpleasant, given they simply don't have the economic clout with the rUK that the UK has when compared to the EU, have a big deficit, etc.

The really bizarre one from the SNP types is how Scotland should leave the UK... then become a puppet of Germany - ie, join the EU instead. To me, that's about as far from being in favour of an independent Scotland as being a pro-UK Scotsman.

Sorry, where in the UK constitution is Scotland entitled to a Veto, an exit clause, or judicial or executive representation?
If Scotland would be a 'puppet' in the EU, the UK is a fascist dictatorship.

[Deleted]

Also pushing yougov on here, or anywhere doesn't help anything. Polls like this are easily used to push a party, or even promote voter apathy. Especially when yougov's owners are conservative website owners, or even candidates. Can't trust this BS.

Stephan Shakespeare
Nadhim Zahawi

[Kalis]

It's a good manifesto. The costing's are also all listed. Of course, increasing a percentage here doesn't actually gain you said money due to many number of variables. But Austerity and cuts don't work either. I'm not sure why the tories are so trusted with the economy. Oh yeah, Slogans and constant media bashing.

Labour comes under fire for proposing policies and their costs associated. Tories constantly get away with "Dunno, growing economy?"

The Tories make cuts in order to reduce the deficit, sometimes they may be penny wise, pound foolish, but the basics are sound. Labour are proposing increased spending and have no idea how we will ever pay it off, just vague assurances that it will work out.

Their costing is ridiculously simplistic, as shown by my comment above "...last year corporation tax fell by 1% and revenue increased by over 12%", which shows that increasing taxes does not necessarily equate to a direct increase in revenue generated, yet they are relying on it to do so. They are going to make us less competitive in a post-Brexit world, that is crazy.

[Deleted]

RICH PEOPLE! Those bastards have it coming. As someone who's normally a Labour supporter with more socialist ideals, even I'm worried about Corbyn.

4% of the UK earn 100k or above.

Let's take somebody earning 100k. They'll have to pay £83 more a month. How is this unreasonable? Somebody that already takes home £5,500 to pay a sky television package subscription more. It's not asking for much.

Nobody is calling Rich people bastards, or hating people for doing well. But this is progressive tax and it's just more visible than what Tories do, by slamming the VAT, and services, increasing the cost of living.