Treasure Master Iks'reeged Fail

[Cosmic Janitor]

I defnintely doubt it has an equal distribution across the possible result space.

[Delaios]

Don't buy the keys, just do the WQ when it's up. The WQ gives more on average than it costs.

[Twdft]

I defnintely doubt it has an equal distribution across the possible result space.

I'm pretty sure that over millions of chests the average reward is at most 2000 per chest, probably even less. So if 1 chest opens for 100k shards at least 49 other chests only contain 1 shard.

[Dziubla]

I am saying they have nerfed it as I had the same as you, Last week 2-6k shards on the reg, Since reset not had higher than 10 shards period.

Sure did. Been doing it on 9 chars since the first time it was available, at first bought some keys, later on only every 3 days with wq, and i've noticed a MASSIVE drop past week ~2-3.

[Cosmic Janitor]

I'm pretty sure that over millions of chests the average reward is at most 2000 per chest, probably even less. So if 1 chest opens for 100k shards at least 49 other chests only contain 1 shard.

I would expect the distribution to look more like an inverse e function or some kind of bell curve centered around 0 to 200. From what I've gathered so far it seems to be even a net loss for the 100 shard investment of the WQ.

[Teri]

I got 1 many many times now. Got 50k once early on, and also got more 3000+ early on.

Lately it's been a lot of 800-1800 or much much less.

I don't buy keys, just WQ on multiple chars.

[gutnbrg]

lowest ive ever gotten was 400

[Camthur]

It's all random. I probably have 6 or 8 of those pets spread across my characters. I bet there are people out there who have tried over and over and still haven't got one.

[meroko]

I am saying they have nerfed it as I had the same as you, Last week 2-6k shards on the reg, Since reset not had higher than 10 shards period.

RNG is RNG ...wasn't nerfed. Just because you had a streak of good luck then a streak of bad luck does not mean it was nerfed, I'd say that's fairly balanced.

[FelPlague]

went to loot a chest, person looted it, got 666,666 then bought a few more keys, got another 50k

ive gotten 50k, but very quickly got 5 1's in a row and gave up

[Svisalith]

Looks to me like they nerfed it. I have the thing unlocked on 2 chars and since the reset I've gotten 5/5 keys under 100 shards.

I got 7 keys in a row below 100 shards on day 1, RNG is RNG

[Triggered Fridgekin]

The best way to counter this is to become a streamer. That's where all the luck is.

[GutsAP]

I got 50k and 100k so that seems like definitive proof they actually significantly buffed the shard drops.

[Tack980]

Actually, it was designed so that the last 2 digits of Pi are the percentage chance to get either 100k after 1, or 1 twice in a row

I'm curious, what are the last two digits?

[Thelxi]

I'm pretty sure that they nerfed it a while ago. That or the keys you get from the quest are rigged.

[SinR]

guys i heard Onyxia deep breaths more too

[ComputerNerd]

Treasure Master Its'Rigged

I disagree with the sentiment, but I had a good laugh anyway.
Thank you for that.

There is no "evidence" of rigging.
There is simply insufficient data from one player, their friends, or even their guild to "prove" anything.
Look at what fraction even the largest guild is of the number of players getting that key every time the quest is up.

If I roll a dice 10 times and don't roll a 6, are you going to tell me that I can't.

Overall I am in profit.
Most times I do the quest I get a few hundred to a few thousand.
I have had as few as 1 too.

But overall I have had more nethershards from the quest than it has cost me.

[Deleted]

I did the quest and got ONE nethershard. I thought I was certain to win the 100k lottery if I tried again, so I bought a key for 2k. I got one shard AGAIN. What are the chances?!

Lol, I got 100k shards from the quest. And then I thought I should buy one key, so I got another 100k.
I haven't been to that cave since, but I've bought a lot of trinkets. Got 7 legendaries out of them so far.

Oh and Blizzard sent me a handwritten thank you note for being awesome. And that evening I got a call from a model who wanted to go out on a date.

Kinda normal day for me.

[Nathanyel]

I thought I was certain to win the 100k lottery if I tried again, so I bought a key for 2k.

Note that one roll does not affect the other. You could have any possible result from a second key.

Kids, this is why they say it's important to listen in school!

[Pratt]

Note that one roll does not affect the other. You could have any possible result from a second key.

Kids, this is why they say it's important to listen in school!

Just trying to have a little fun. jeez...