UK general election 2017

[Slant]

I don't have an end game - you're the one trying to spin it as if Greece's future is all sweetness and light as long as they do as they're told by the EU.

Nearly a quarter of their population is unemployed this increases to almost half in the under 25s and yet they cannot provide the much needed jobs because they simply cannot compete with cheap EU imports and they can't attract investment because the EU debt hanging over them. So what the IMF has said looks like a good place to start to me. But of course you don't want that because it doesn't benefit Germany... sorry.. the EU, I mean the EU. To be honest it almost laughable how you've gone from saying that the IMF is trying to blackmail the EU to the EU is Greece's saviour - saving them from starvation.

And that you don't have an end game is ultimately worse than the current plan the EU has. Keep them alive, give them breathing room to make reforms to get the core problems that caused all this fixed. Unemployment? It's a symptom. And they're not dying, so it's not an acute symptom that needs to get fixed right away. The core problem is the labor market. You can pump all kinds of money into the labor market, but what would you do with it? What exactly would you do? Build a factory? Great, now what... you have an empty building, no product, no machines, no plan... but a lot of people standing around not having a clue what to do. Do you think a money injection is going to magically fix every problem by itself?

The IMF has an idea, and their idea is much better than yours. But the EU is the main creditor and as such they are calling the shots. And as stupid as you think they may be, they're far better than not having an endgame at all. So until you have understood what the Greek problem actually is, don't come here accusing me of what... calling them blackmailing just because they disagree? No, I don't. I call them blackmailing because they don't just disagree, they try to force a decision by threatening with an action or inaction that may cause harm. Not to Germany. To the Greeks.

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And? At present the path to Greece's bankruptcy is just being prolonged, hence the IMF's comments.

It's not. That's the entire idea of what the EU is trying to do. Fix shit in a soft way. So Greek people don't have to suffer too much. And they're doing a pretty swell job so far, I have to say.

[Deleted]

And? At present the path to Greece's bankruptcy is just being prolonged, hence the IMF's comments.

You know the Greek economy is growing and has a primary surplus right?

[Pann]

And that you don't have an end game is ultimately worse than the current plan the EU has. Keep them alive, give them breathing room to make reforms to get the core problems that caused all this fixed. Unemployment? It's a symptom. And they're not dying, so it's not an acute symptom that needs to get fixed right away. The core problem is the labor market. You can pump all kinds of money into the labor market, but what would you do with it? What exactly would you do? Build a factory? Great, now what... you have an empty building, no product, no machines, no plan... but a lot of people standing around not having a clue what to do. Do you think a money injection is going to magically fix every problem by itself?

The IMF has an idea, and their idea is much better than yours. But the EU is the main creditor and as such they are calling the shots. And as stupid as you think they may be, they're far better than not having an endgame at all. So until you have understood what the Greek problem actually is, don't come here accusing me of what... calling them blackmailing just because they disagree? No, I don't. I call them blackmailing because they don't just disagree, they try to force a decision by threatening with an action or inaction that may cause harm. Not to Germany. To the Greeks.

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It's not. That's the entire idea of what the EU is trying to do. Fix shit in a soft way. So Greek people don't have to suffer too much. And they're doing a pretty swell job so far, I have to say.

What on earth are you going on about? The IMF has an idea and it is better than mine? I've not once said that I had a plan although I have said that the IMF's suggestion is a good starting point. But somehow their plan, which I agreed with, is better than some plan I have not suggested?!? Bizarre!

They can't fix their problems whilst other EU members are undercutting them on goods and there is massive amounts of debt hanging over them hence the reason for the IMF suggesting debt relief. They undoubtedly have problems that they need to address however the EU is not only making it difficult to do this but is compounding the issue.

The IMF is not blackmailing anyone. Pointing out that the current situation is not working and refusing to finance further bailouts until they are sure that the Greek's debt is sustainable is not blackmail. To suggest that their actions rather than the EU not agreeing to more sustainable debt structure will cause the Greeks harm is simply comical.

If the EU was trying to fix shit the soft way, as you put it, they'd offer to restructure the Greek's debt as suggested by the IMF.

I would say, and I think many would agree with me, that half of the under 25s population being unemployed is suffering. Of course you'd say the EU is doing a swell job, your country benefits from the Greek's suffering - your country earns interest on the money they're owed, the risk of the debt is shared amongst many other countries and the best bit is that the Greeks spend this money that they borrow importing goods that your country produces. That seems like a pretty sweet deal to me.

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You know the Greek economy is growing and has a primary surplus right?

It is in surplus but growing?

"But despite the impressive turnaround, the Greek economy has fallen back into reverse, with growth contracting at the end of 2016 and unemployment on the rise. Shrinking GDP has helped drive up the country’s overall debt ratio from 177 per cent 179 per cent of GDP, according to Elstat."

"A breakdown of the figures shows the government tightened its belt strings last year, reducing expenditure from €95.2bn to €86.1bn. This has raised concerns among economists and EU officials that Syriza has been “hoarding” cash in an attempt to boost the headline surplus.

The IMF, which has pushed for lower surplus targets a decade after the end of the bailout in 2018, has a more pessimistic take on Greece’s finances.

In its latest fiscal forecasts published this week, the fund expects the temporary revenue boost to dissipate, pushing the surplus to a below target of 1.8 per cent next year. The IMF calculates the budget balance as 3.3 per cent last year."

https://www.ft.com/content/88a345c0-...6-d361767c27d0

And I suppose it doesn't matter it that surplus is potentially a result of window dressing.

[alexw]

And that you don't have an end game is ultimately worse than the current plan the EU has. Keep them alive, give them breathing room to make reforms to get the core problems that caused all this fixed. Unemployment? It's a symptom. And they're not dying, so it's not an acute symptom that needs to get fixed right away. The core problem is the labor market. You can pump all kinds of money into the labor market, but what would you do with it? What exactly would you do? Build a factory? Great, now what... you have an empty building, no product, no machines, no plan... but a lot of people standing around not having a clue what to do. Do you think a money injection is going to magically fix every problem by itself?

The IMF has an idea, and their idea is much better than yours. But the EU is the main creditor and as such they are calling the shots. And as stupid as you think they may be, they're far better than not having an endgame at all. So until you have understood what the Greek problem actually is, don't come here accusing me of what... calling them blackmailing just because they disagree? No, I don't. I call them blackmailing because they don't just disagree, they try to force a decision by threatening with an action or inaction that may cause harm. Not to Germany. To the Greeks.

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It's not. That's the entire idea of what the EU is trying to do. Fix shit in a soft way. So Greek people don't have to suffer too much. And they're doing a pretty swell job so far, I have to say.

Greece is trapped in a classic fisher debt deflationary cycle. There is no way out using the methods prescribed by Germany. You literally cannot cut your way out of a debt trap. What is needed is system wide reflation centered on Germany. Unfortunately Germany has this bugbear about inflation.....

[Slant]

Greece is trapped in a classic fisher debt deflationary cycle. There is no way out using the methods prescribed by Germany. You literally cannot cut your way out of a debt trap. What is needed is system wide reflation centered on Germany. Unfortunately Germany has this bugbear about inflation.....

Yeah, so? What will inflation bring you? Germany will always have more buying power than anyone else, currency being a relative beast, it'll just mean that you change the numbers and that's it. Congratulations, Greece has now 100 trillion Euro to pay their debt. But oh wait, the debt got inflated by the same fucking amount, so it's still the same fucking problem...

[alexw]

FYI for those interested a debt deflationary cycle goes something like this.......

An economic bubble bursts leading to falls in economic activity and expenditure.
The economy shrinks.
Tax revenues fall leading to calls for/by government to cut expenditure, lay off workers, and minimize outlays.
The shrinkage of gov spending results in further falls in national income (because total spending = total income) and economic demand.
The private sector responds by cutting spending further still.
The cycle of contraction continues with the central government having to make continual cuts to keep up with continually falling tax revenues.
At this point positive growth spending, i.e. investment, is basically nil because its much easier to cut spending of this type than wages.
Unemployment hits high levels of over 10%
The system switches from an inflationary cycle bias to a deflationary cycle one.
Workers in both the private and public sectors fearful for their jobs and seeing large numbers of unemployed accept significant pay cuts.
As pay cuts bite the real value of debts escalate (if you owe $1000 and earn $10 a day and your wages fall to $5 a day it makes it harder to pay your debts).
The rising value of debts mean more of national income needs to be devoted to those debts, hence there is less available for day to day needs and productive activity.
Large scale defaults occur as businesses and households start to default on their debts as real debt loads escalate.
The real value of government debt also rises as all parts of the economy shrink, rising ever higher as a share of national GDP.
The government continues to cut being pressured to cut because of the rising debt to GDP ratio, under the flawed assumption that the solution is to cut spending so as to run a surplus so as to start paying down its debt.
These further cuts in gov spending result in further shrinking of economic demand so that national income and national spending continue to fall at a rapid rate.
Likewise the private sector responds by further retrenchment and contraction.
The whole system degrades with significant falls in function.
Poverty is at extremely high levels.
Tax revenues have almost collapsed.
Unemployment has hit extremely high levels.
Workers are taking pay cuts of 20%, 30% or more.
The real values of all debt continue to escalate due to falling incomes of all types leaving an ever smaller share of national income for productive activity.
The government continues to cut in a futile effort to play catch up with falling revenues so it can heed calls to start paying down its now extreme levels of debt.
More and more of the economy shuts down as companies have no customers and customers have no income.
The cycle continues without end until the debt overhang is wiped clean and reflationary measures taken.

[Pann]

FYI for those interested a debt deflationary cycle goes something like this.......

That was an interesting read and thanks for taking the time to write it.

[alexw]

Yeah, so? What will inflation bring you? Germany will always have more buying power than anyone else, currency being a relative beast, it'll just mean that you change the numbers and that's it. Congratulations, Greece has now 100 trillion Euro to pay their debt. But oh wait, the debt got inflated by the same fucking amount, so it's still the same fucking problem...

Greece is stuck in a deflationary cycle such as I have described in the post just above this one. There is no way out of it without turning it into a positive reflationary cycle. This will bring about an end to this economic dysfunction. Since Greece shares its currency with Germany that means Germany needs to also inflate.

FYI /facepalm Inflation ALWAYS devalues real debt values.

[Deleted]

Greece is stuck in a deflationary cycle such as I have described in the post just above this one. There is no way out of it without turning it into a positive reflationary cycle. This will bring about an end to this economic dysfunction. Since Greece shares its currency with Germany that means Germany needs to also inflate.

You do know that inflation wont solve Greece's problems?
You want to know why? - Because they had the drachma for a century.
Greece's problems remains fundamentally the same as always, and that's not anemic growth.
No their problem is a a overgrown, inefficient state, to dependent on borrowing to pay their bills because politicians want to buy votes and cant make people pay their taxes.
We know that because the primary way of saving money in Greece was not putting it into the bank, no it was buying an apartment, the hallmark of a shit currency (and state).
That's Greece's problem, not the lack of growth -
If the EU wiped out all of the Greek debt tomorrow, that wouldn't change things. The Greeks wouldn't have any money to stimulate the economy anyway, and if they could borrow money, all that would happen is that they would re-inflate the same bubble - We know, because we have seen this story several times before.
Greece doesn't need stimulus, it needs reform -

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FYI for those interested a debt deflationary cycle goes something like this.......

An economic bubble bursts leading to falls in economic activity and expenditure.
The economy shrinks.
Tax revenues fall leading to calls for/by government to cut expenditure, lay off workers, and minimize outlays.

Yes, it would have been great if the Greek state had been able to borrow and stimulate the economy - but they couldn't because they had already borrowed money to inflate the bubble.

The shrinkage of gov spending results in further falls in national income (because total spending = total income) and economic demand.

Because there are no outside sources of funding, and no private investment - That sounds like two false assumptions.

The private sector responds by cutting spending further still.
The cycle of contraction continues with the central government having to make continual cuts to keep up with continually falling tax revenues.
At this point positive growth spending, i.e. investment, is basically nil because its much easier to cut spending of this type than wages.

But you could cut wages, it would just be terribly unpopular?
Which is really the problem, Inflation makes people's wages decrease in real terms, but most people won't notice.

Unemployment hits high levels of over 10%
The system switches from an inflationary cycle bias to a deflationary cycle one.
Workers in both the private and public sectors fearful for their jobs and seeing large numbers of unemployed accept significant pay cuts.

Why the lack of outside investment at this point?

As pay cuts bite the real value of debts escalate (if you owe $1000 and earn $10 a day and your wages fall to $5 a day it makes it harder to pay your debts).
The rising value of debts mean more of national income needs to be devoted to those debts, hence there is less available for day to day needs and productive activity.

Borrowing money to pay pensions is not a productive use of money either.

Large scale defaults occur as businesses and households start to default on their debts as real debt loads escalate.
The real value of government debt also rises as all parts of the economy shrink, rising ever higher as a share of national GDP.
The government continues to cut being pressured to cut because of the rising debt to GDP ratio, under the flawed assumption that the solution is to cut spending so as to run a surplus so as to start paying down its debt.

If a government cannot borrow to keep the bubble inflated artificially, the solution is what?
Borrow more money?

More and more of the economy shuts down as companies have no customers and customers have no income.

Companies dependent on spending by people given 'free money' from the state should collapse.

The cycle continues without end until the debt overhang is wiped clean and reflationary measures taken.

Or outside cashflows creates real growth, instead of the artificial bubble peddled by the Greek state.

[alexw]

You do know that inflation wont solve Greece's problems?
You want to know why? - Because they had the drachma for a century.
Greece's problems remains fundamentally the same as always, and that's not anemic growth.
No their problem is a a overgrown, inefficient state, to dependent on borrowing to pay their bills because politicians want to buy votes and cant make people pay their taxes.
We know that because the primary way of saving money in Greece was not putting it into the bank, no it was buying an apartment, the hallmark of a shit currency (and state).
That's Greece's problem, not the lack of growth -
If the EU wiped out all of the Greek debt tomorrow, that wouldn't change things. The Greeks wouldn't have any money to stimulate the economy anyway, and if they could borrow money, all that would happen is that they would re-inflate the same bubble - We know, because we have seen this story several times before.
Greece doesn't need stimulus, it needs reform -

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Yes, it would have been great if the Greek state had been able to borrow and stimulate the economy - but they couldn't because they had already borrowed money to inflate the bubble.

Because there are no outside sources of funding, and no private investment - That sounds like two false assumptions.

But you could cut wages, it would just be terribly unpopular?
Which is really the problem, Inflation makes people's wages decrease in real terms, but most people won't notice.

Why the lack of outside investment at this point?


Borrowing money to pay pensions is not a productive use of money either.


If a government cannot borrow to keep the bubble inflated artificially, the solution is what?
Borrow more money?

Companies dependent on spending by people given 'free money' from the state should collapse.

Or outside cashflows creates real growth, instead of the artificial bubble peddled by the Greek state.

I am not sure what to say really. Greece is stuck in a textbook case of a debt deflationary spiral. It is what it is. And there is no way out except reflation. Stomping your foot and saying this is not how I want it to be doesn't change that. You can pretend otherwise, of course, but again it doesn't change anything. It doesn't require your beliefs or desires, it is what it is, a textbook debt deflationary spiral, which requires a textbook reflationary response to fix the problem. All I have done is describe that problem and the known solution to that problem.

[Deleted]

I am not sure what to say really. Greece is stuck in a textbook case of a debt deflationary spiral. It is what it is. And there is no way out except reflation.

Again that's not their problem.

And there is no way out except reflation.

That's not true.
Eventually the Greek wages will be so low that their labor will be competitive.
And that's really the crux of the matter - The Greek economy can't run on a perpetual stimulus, which is what your policy of re-inflating the same fucking bubble as the last time amounts too.

[alexw]

Again that's not their problem.
That's not true.
Eventually the Greek wages will be so low that their labor will be competitive.
And that's really the crux of the matter - The Greek economy can't run on a perpetual stimulus, which is what your policy of re-inflating the same fucking bubble as the last time amounts too.

Again that's not how it works. Whether they are now competitive or not is irrelevant. It is a self-reinforcing debt liquidation cycle that requires reflation to end. We've had these things in the past, the great depression being the most prominent example. Heck, the reason we had all the stimulus post 2008 was because the powers that be were trying to circumvent another such global deflationary event. We know how they work, we know the drivers, we know how to get out of them. I'm not sure why you are arguing this.

[Mayhem]

Again that's not how it works. Whether they are now competitive or not is irrelevant. It is a self-reinforcing debt liquidation cycle that requires reflation to end. We've had these things in the past, the great depression being the most prominent example. Heck, the reason we had all the stimulus post 2008 was because the powers that be were trying to circumvent another such global deflationary event. We know how they work, we know the drivers, we know how to get out of them. I'm not sure why you are arguing this.

What exactly is it you're proposing?

[Deleted]

Again that's not how it works. Whether they are now competitive or not is irrelevant. It is a self-reinforcing debt liquidation cycle that requires reflation to end. We've had these things in the past, the great depression being the most prominent example. Heck, the reason we had all the stimulus post 2008 was because the powers that be were trying to circumvent another such global deflationary event. We know how they work, we know the drivers, we know how to get out of them. I'm not sure why you are arguing this.

as i said, Yes, it would have been great if the Greek state had been able to borrow and stimulate the economy - but they couldn't because they had already borrowed money to inflate the bubble.
You are overlooking external cash flows - actors other than the state can drive them out of said cycle.
Also for the third time, the Greek problem is not in fact its anemic growth, because that in actuality reflects the fundamentals of the Greek economy more than anything else.
here is just one example:

As long as that's true, it reduces the Greek economy.
Now fixing the justice system in Greece would not in fact cost Any money - Yet it has still not been done for almost 10 years, why?
That's their fucking problem, not anemic growth.

[rogueMatthias]

Think the left need to calm down for a bit now. The fire was still burning and people were calling May a murderer and saying the people were all "killed by Austerity". And this is even without all the conspiracy stories of her deliberately hiding the true death toll for political gain.

As for her not showing up to greet the survivors early, It's pretty clear that if she HAD then people would be calling her out for shamelessly seeking a photo-op.

I've seen fliers handed out for ANOTHER "TORIESOUT" protest march on parliament. Again claiming Corbyn rightfully won, but now with added "Justice For Grenfell"

This is all a bit gross now.

[Pann]

Think the left need to calm down for a bit now. The fire was still burning and people were calling May a murderer and saying the people were all "killed by Austerity". And this is even without all the conspiracy stories of her deliberately hiding the true death toll for political gain.

As for her not showing up to greet the survivors early, It's pretty clear that if she HAD then people would be calling her out for shamelessly seeking a photo-op.

I've seen fliers handed out for ANOTHER "TORIESOUT" protest march on parliament. Again claiming Corbyn rightfully won, but now with added "Justice For Grenfell"

This is all a bit gross now.

I have no time for those politicising the Grenfell tragedy but May not visiting the survivors because people would have called her out for seeking a photo-op is quite frankly ridiculous. The Queen, Corbyn and various celebrities that have visited the site have not had these accusations levelled at them and you can bet if Cameron had still been in office he would have been there with his sleeves rolled up handing out supplies to survivors.

[paralleluniverse]

Think the left need to calm down for a bit now. The fire was still burning and people were calling May a murderer and saying the people were all "killed by Austerity". And this is even without all the conspiracy stories of her deliberately hiding the true death toll for political gain.

As for her not showing up to greet the survivors early, It's pretty clear that if she HAD then people would be calling her out for shamelessly seeking a photo-op.

I've seen fliers handed out for ANOTHER "TORIESOUT" protest march on parliament. Again claiming Corbyn rightfully won, but now with added "Justice For Grenfell"

This is all a bit gross now.

Theresa May's response is as atrocious as Bush's Katrina response, with the difference being that Bush didn't cause Katrina, but Tory austerity contributed to Grenfell.

It's pretty clear that the reason that May didn't show up is because she is scared shitless of human interaction, as we all saw during the campaign. All she could do was run, hide, chicken out from everything. It's the job of a leader to show up and deal with criticism. She can't because she's a petrified chicken.

The Tories were warned, they cut flood defense because tax cuts for the rich come first, then dozens of people died and millions of pounds of flood damage occurred. The Tories were warned, they cut police because tax cuts for the rich come first, then dozens of people were blown up and stabbed by jihadists as a result. The Tories were warned, they cut funding for councils and firefighters and sat on a high rise fire safety report, then dozens of people get burned to death in an inferno.

Economists warned the Tories that austerity would wreck the economy, the Tories ignored them because tax cuts for the rich come first, the result was the economists were correct and the UK had the worse recovery ever, even worse than The Great Depression and the social fabric is being torn apart by skyrocketing inequality that the Tory class war on the poor has exacerbated.

I smell a pattern. Austerity kills, the Tories are always warned but don't care unless there is an electoral consequence. Tax cuts for the rich and their right-wing ideology to shrink the state always comes first before people's lives.

And these delusional Tories try to pretend that magically there is no consequence to their austerity and deregulation agenda, when the consequence is death and years of economic depression following the GFC.

[JohnBrown1917]

Think the left need to calm down for a bit now. The fire was still burning and people were calling May a murderer and saying the people were all "killed by Austerity". And this is even without all the conspiracy stories of her deliberately hiding the true death toll for political gain.

As for her not showing up to greet the survivors early, It's pretty clear that if she HAD then people would be calling her out for shamelessly seeking a photo-op.

I've seen fliers handed out for ANOTHER "TORIESOUT" protest march on parliament. Again claiming Corbyn rightfully won, but now with added "Justice For Grenfell"

This is all a bit gross now.

How is it gross? Politics is how you change this sort of stuff.

[Mormolyce]

I'm sure austerity will no longer be necessary once you get that sweet £350 million per week.

[ranzino]

Queen's speech is due wednesday, brexit talks will start tomorrow. UK and EU will have a closer look at May's ideas very soon; but really: dont hold your breath.