One year after Brexit referendum, economic slow down

[Aeula]

This is more because the Tory government was too arrogant to realise we'd actually vote to leave, so they didn't have a plan for dealing with the EU in place which created uncertainty. Then May decided to add more chaos to the mix with her stupidly-timed election and her resultant hideous attempt at campaigning. Allowing Labour to cripple her majority by simply offering free stuff.
Now all we've got is a government with a weak and humiliated leader, we've lost a lot of leverage in the negotiations for being so disorganised and there's a hell of a lot of uncertainty regarding the economy because there's currently no one competent enough to get it back on track.

I still think Brexit was the right decision, but it was executed so poorly by those in charge that it hardly matters anymore.

[Mayhem]

What's bad is being a net-import country. A weaker but fair value currency discourages imports and incentivises home grown manufacturers. The sooner we stop importing so much European rubbish the better off we will be, the worse off Europe will be.

A fair value currency is ideal.

Home grown manufacturers can't wish their resources into existence. So while the western world becomes more of a service industry, you'll go back to manufacturing.

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WTO rules would not be bad for the UK, but terrible for Europe. Most of the stuff we export to the EU under WTO is low or tariff free. Most of the stuff we import from the EU, like cars, agricultural products is high tariff.

You do know that the tariffs on imports will be payed by the ones importing them...

[dribbles]

Home grown manufacturers can't wish their resources into existence. So while the western world becomes more of a service industry, you'll go back to manufacturing.

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You do know that the tariffs on imports will be payed by the ones importing them...

Tariffs are paid by the end customer, higher tariffs = fewer customers of imported goods = more customers of locally sourced product.

Keep being delusional, the economy is "booming" everywhere.

Are you sure? Half of all Greeks under 25 are unemployed, more than a third of all Spanish and Italians. Is that the EU official definition of a booming economy?

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...ent_statistics

In April 2017, the youth unemployment rate was 16.7 % in the EU28 and 18.7 % in the euro area, compared with 19.0 % and 21.4 % respectively in April 2016. In April 2017, the lowest rate was observed in Germany (6.8 %), while the highest were recorded in Greece (47.9 % in February 2017), Spain (39.3 %) and Italy (34.0 %).

[ati87]

This is more because the Tory government was too arrogant to realise we'd actually vote to leave, so they didn't have a plan for dealing with the EU in place which created uncertainty. Then May decided to add more chaos to the mix with her stupidly-timed election and her resultant hideous attempt at campaigning. Allowing Labour to cripple her majority by simply offering free stuff.
Now all we've got is a government with a weak and humiliated leader, we've lost a lot of leverage in the negotiations for being so disorganised and there's a hell of a lot of uncertainty regarding the economy because there's currently no one competent enough to get it back on track.

I still think Brexit was the right decision, but it was executed so poorly by those in charge that it hardly matters anymore.

You're first mistake is assuming you had any leverage in the first place, it's not that you lost any leverage but the Brtish government just became a public joke.
Second: you assume their is a correct patch in leaving the EU, well their isn't. The EU in it's current form is a project that's been in the making since WW2, the idea that a handful of overblown assholes could just undo this is hubris

And Labour didn't just offer free stuff, they offered the opposite of what May offered. I think some countries needs austerity (countries like Greece who do have a spending problem) but some other countries don't need strict austerity and going for the opposite isn't just given away stuff.

[Mayhem]

Tariffs are paid by the end customer, higher tariffs = fewer customers of imported goods = more customers of locally sourced product.

Locally sourced products like?

Are you sure? Half of all Greeks under 25 are unemployed, more than a third of all Spanish and Italians. Is that the EU official definition of a booming economy?

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...ent_statistics

In April 2017, the youth unemployment rate was 16.7 % in the EU28 and 18.7 % in the euro area, compared with 19.0 % and 21.4 % respectively in April 2016. In April 2017, the lowest rate was observed in Germany (6.8 %), while the highest were recorded in Greece (47.9 % in February 2017), Spain (39.3 %) and Italy (34.0 %).

So your argument against a booming economy are dropping unemployment rates?

[dribbles]

So your argument against a booming economy are dropping unemployment rates?

The only reason unemployment is dropping in Europe is because they have at the minute the freedom to move to the land of plenty in the UK. We have welcomed over 3 million refugees from Europe so far, another benefit Europe will lose in a little over 12 months. Do the calculation, 3 million x 30k average annual salary opportunity is a direct annual benefit to Europe of £90bn. Pfft gone from Europe in a puff of smoke, how high will their unemployment rise when this opportunity is lost?

The more you think about it, the sorrier you feel for our EU neighbours.

[Mayhem]

The only reason unemployment is dropping in Europe is because they have at the minute the freedom to move to the land of plenty in the UK. We have welcomed over 3 million refugees from Europe so far, another benefit Europe will lose in a little over 12 months. Do the calculation, 3 million x 30k average annual salary opportunity is a direct annual benefit to Europe of £90bn. Pfft gone from Europe in a puff of smoke, how high will their unemployment rise when this opportunity is lost?

The more you think about it, the sorrier you feel for our EU neighbours.

Ah, of course, thanks for reminding.

[ati87]

The only reason unemployment is dropping in Europe is because they have at the minute the freedom to move to the land of plenty in the UK. We have welcomed over 3 million refugees from Europe so far, another benefit Europe will lose in a little over 12 months. Do the calculation, 3 million x 30k average annual salary opportunity is a direct annual benefit to Europe of £90bn. Pfft gone from Europe in a puff of smoke, how high will their unemployment rise when this opportunity is lost?

The more you think about it, the sorrier you feel for our EU neighbours.

Care to elaborate where you got you're numbers from? Just curious

[dribbles]

Care to elaborate where you got you're numbers from? Just curious

Median UK salary from ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...isionalresults

3 million known EU citizens in the UK is widely reported, presumably more with the unknowns. The EU offers them no hope, no future and no employment, the UK has pretty much full employment for those that want it. Should be safe to assume those from the EU are earning median salaries, probably more as they are concentrated in London and the South East with even higher than average wages. Hopefully they won't be forced home after Brexit, the EU is in enough mess without the added costs of housing and feeding an additional now unemployed and homeless 3 million returnees.

[ati87]

Median UK salary from ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...isionalresults

3 million known EU citizens in the UK is widely reported, presumably more with the unknowns. The EU offers them no hope, no future and no employment, the UK has pretty much full employment for those that want it. Should be safe to assume those from the EU are earning median salaries, probably more as they are concentrated in London and the South East with even higher than average wages. Hopefully they won't be forced home after Brexit, the EU is in enough mess without the added costs of housing and feeding an additional now unemployed and homeless 3 million returnees.

And now you're conclusion please, what's the basis of that? Did you do research or did you just made it up?

[dribbles]

And now you're conclusion please, what's the basis of that? Did you do research or did you just made it up?

If you don't dispute the method, the conclusion is self evident. 3 million european refugees x 30000 salary = £90bn annual opportunity for Europeans offered by the UK, not open to them in their home country. Clearly if Britain had denied entry to all those refugees Europe would have lost that benefit to its citizens.

[Super Friendly Kitty Cat]

Still really too early to see how this plays out.

I think it will play out extremely badly but you need to look at this in five years time to be certain.

If it prevents the UK from being a dumping ground for immigrants and refugees, and they can save some semblance of their native heritage and culture, than it is a win for the world, to not have this great and thriving cultural landmark be dilluted and catastrophically altered.

[Deleted]

If it prevents the UK from being a dumping ground for immigrants and refugees, and they can save some semblance of their native heritage and culture, than it is a win for the world, to not have this great and thriving cultural landmark be dilluted and catastrophically altered.

This is Britain, we have no culture. No one is going to start going Morris Dancing. And frankly, I've never met any one who invoked cultural heritage as you did who had even the slightest interest in their indigenous culture. It is a just a way of saying "fuck off foreigners" without looking like a racist.

Let me guess: you probably buy many imported american/other foreign goods, play no part in the life of your local community, are largely ignorant of your country's history, haven't been to a museum since you were a child, patronize fashionable imported micro-breweries/restaurants and the like? Could you even give a single non-contrived instance of you supporting your indigenous culture which doesn't manifest itself in the form of petty, ugly racism?

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3 million known EU citizens in the UK is widely reported, presumably more with the unknowns. The EU offers them no hope, no future and no employment, the UK has pretty much full employment for those that want it.

Yes and the grass is green and young men play cricket in the summer as maidens wearing floral dresses laugh gaily.

No. I scarcely know where to begin with such a voluminous, almost tidal level of bullshit. As with most Brexiteers their arguments are built on so many false assumptions they tend to win by default since no one can be asked to write a bible-length post explainining how things actually are that they wouldn't understand and would ignore even if they did.

[Super Friendly Kitty Cat]

This is Britain, we have no culture.

Wow, clearly you have a tremendous amount of ignorance of your own heritage and somehow it has manifested in some sort of self-loathing.

Can you name a country that has culture?

[Mormolyce]

This is Britain, we have no culture. No one is going to start going Morris Dancing. And frankly, I've never met any one who invoked cultural heritage as you did who had even the slightest interest in their indigenous culture. It is a just a way of saying "fuck off foreigners" without looking like a racist.

Fun fact, "Morris Dancing" was originally "Moorish Dancing".

Fucking immigrants.

[ati87]

If you don't dispute the method, the conclusion is self evident. 3 million european refugees x 30000 salary = £90bn annual opportunity for Europeans offered by the UK, not open to them in their home country. Clearly if Britain had denied entry to all those refugees Europe would have lost that benefit to its citizens.

Well the method seems a bit to simpel by itself but the conclusion by itself is just stupid if I want to use non PC terms.

First you make a few assumptions that no decent person would make like:
The money people earn just vanishes and don't go back in the economy of the UK
that 3M people more would be unemployed in the EU, that's is something you don't know. Allot of sectors have a shortage of people so may be 3MEU citizens just want to live in the UK for the ''nice weather''
not taking into account UK citizens living in a EU country, which would be around 1M probably

but then again you calling EU citizens refugees is a bit telling isn't it and you're specific conclusion based on 2 simpel numbers, to put it mildly, simplistic at best.

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T

As with most Brexiteers their arguments are built on so many false assumptions they tend to win by default since no one can be asked to write a bible-length post explainining how things actually are that they wouldn't understand and would ignore even if they did.

Well you have a easy answer for people that argue like that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitchens%27s_razor

What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence

[Deleted]

Wow, clearly you have a tremendous amount of ignorance of your own heritage and somehow it has manifested in some sort of self-loathing.

Can you name a country that has culture?

Oh wow you know what you did there? You threw my argument straight back at me!

That isn't the most crude and predictable form of comeback universally indicating duplicity borne of discomfort at the fact I hit the nail on the head. No.

[dribbles]

Well the method seems a bit to simpel by itself but the conclusion by itself is just stupid if I want to use non PC terms.

First you make a few assumptions that no decent person would make like:
The money people earn just vanishes and don't go back in the economy of the UK
that 3M people more would be unemployed in the EU, that's is something you don't know. Allot of sectors have a shortage of people so may be 3MEU citizens just want to live in the UK for the ''nice weather''
not taking into account UK citizens living in a EU country, which would be around 1M probably

but then again you calling EU citizens refugees is a bit telling isn't it and you're specific conclusion based on 2 simpel numbers, to put it mildly, simplistic at best.

The thing is it is not really fair to compare the generally needy, homeless,jobless and penniless eu refugees that arrive in the UK with the expat Brits who leave for the EU self sufficent, usually with the 100,000s euros from the sale proceeds of their house and often with 100,000's euro in their bulging pensions.

The two are not comparable. One group bring wealth and one come to take it away.

[Deleted]

The thing is it is not really fair to compare the generally needy, homeless,jobless and penniless eu refugees that arrive in the UK with the expat Brits who leave for the EU self sufficent, usually with the 100,000s euros from the sale proceeds of their house and often with 100,000's euro in their bulging pensions.

The two are not comparable. One group bring wealth and one come to take it away.

From the institute of employment studies:

The argument that EU migrants are a burden to our welfare system is unfounded. Recent IES analysis has found that overall, EU migrants [1] are less likely to claim benefits than UK nationals, with 34 per cent of EU migrants receiving some form of benefits (in-work and out-of-work) compared to 40 per cent of UK nationals [2]. Only a very small proportion of EU migrants in the UK claim the state pension (less than 0.1%, compared to 10% of UK national aged 18-69), and larger proportions of UK nationals claim unemployment benefits, income support and disability or sickness-related benefits than EU migrants. Of those EU migrants that did claim these benefits, this was because of a change in their circumstances, such as redundancy or the onset of a work-limiting health condition, rather than any desire to exploit the benefits system. UK nationals are also more likely to use social housing (15%) than EU migrants (13%) and the healthcare and education-related expenditure per capita for EU migrants is lower than for UK nationals.

In short, you are coming out with unsubstantiated horseshit or something you half-remembered from the Daily Mail.

[Slant]

Agreed that WTO rules would feel that way (although still wouldn't lead to an 'economic crash', mind), but does anyone honestly expect that to be the final outcome?

That's the problem. The UK doesn't seem to have a position. We have already begun negotiating. So, I'm not sure. I think May is actually intellectually able (read: stupid) enough to let the whole cart drive against the wall and see what sticks. I think she's absolutely overwhelmed with the situation. She feels like when Cameron chickened out, everyone in cabinet went "Not it!" and she was the slowest kid in the yard... and everytime she gives and interview, she's being this insecure stonewall face ("If I don't move, perhaps nobody will notice me screaming inside, because I have no idea what I'm doing...").