Trump approval down to 33%, Republican Support is starting to crumble.

[Blur4stuff]

It's not just a matter of what what bad thing is happening to Trump and the republicans. Even if the Russia thing were to completely vanish, they're still left with no real accomplishments and no good plan to move the country forward.

Just imagine if the republicans end up being failures for the rest of 2017 and then 2018 like they have been for the past seven months. They will keep losing their own support.

[Gestopft]

Just imagine if the republicans end up being failures for the rest of 2017 and then 2018 like they have been for the past seven months. They will keep losing their own support.

Next time Trump runs (assuming he does), he won't get to be an outsider again- he'll have a record to run on, and so far the "united" GoP government has mostly squandered it's honeymoon period. The longer that the combination of the "Only I can fix it, and it will be so easy" candidate and the "we just need somebody to hold a pen and we can get it done" party combine to fail at getting major accomplishments under their belt, the worse it will get for them. Simply not being liberals will work for the base, but for the independents that actually decide elections, inaction will only continue to erode support.

[alexw]

Next time Trump runs (assuming he does), he won't get to be an outsider again- he'll have a record to run on, and so far the "united" GoP government has mostly squandered it's honeymoon period. The longer that the combination of the "Only I can fix it, and it will be so easy" candidate and the "we just need somebody to hold a pen and we can get it done" party combine to fail at getting major accomplishments under their belt, the worse it will get for them. Simply not being liberals will work for the base, but for the independents that actually decide elections, inaction will only continue to erode support.

The problem is the things they want to accomplish are things that would be widely loathed. Getting rid of ACA? Cutting taxes for the 1%? Gutting food stamps? Xenophobic immigration policy?

Could some republican please tell me what policy goals their congress wants to achieve that has widespread support?

[mvaliz]

Five Thirty Eight has an article about the slim chances to turn House and Senate in 2018 midterms.

five thirty eight can go fuck themselves IMO. They were the ones saying Dump had like a 25% chance in winning on Election day, with the week prior being near 10%.

Their "odds" seem to shift every other day up until election day, and even then... >_<

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The problem is the things they want to accomplish are things that would be widely loathed. Getting rid of ACA? Cutting taxes for the 1%? Gutting food stamps? Xenophobic immigration policy?

Could some republican please tell me what policy goals their congress wants to achieve that has widespread support?

I'm not republican, but I can tell you exactly what they want and has their support:

Being a bully to liberals.

Seriously, at this point they'll gladly still vote Dump purely out of spite and hatred for being ultimately wrong. Since they can't be wrong, they just have to "hate librulz" more.

[Breccia]

Signs of trouble emerge in Trump’s base

President Trump took to Twitter on Monday to boast about the strength of his base of support. But polling tells a different story.

Trump, who is at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club, lambasted the media on Monday — his 200th day in office — insisting, “The Trump base is far bigger & stronger than ever before (despite some phony Fake News polling).”

As evidence, he cited large crowds at rallies in states including Pennsylvania, Iowa and Ohio.

But polls indicate that his base is in fact showing signs of erosion.

On Monday evening, a new CNN poll put his job approval rating at 38 percent. Just as worryingly from the White House’s perspective, the same survey showed his "strong approval" among Republicans sliding to 59 percent, from 73 percent in February.
In a Quinnipiac University poll released last week, Trump registered an overall job approval rating of just 33 percent.

The president was even underwater among white people without a college education — the heart of his election-winning coalition last November — registering 43 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval with that group.

And the Quinnipiac poll, like the CNN survey, showed a decline in the share of Republicans approving of his performance. Among Republicans, his performance won the approval of 76 percent now in contrast to 84 percent in late June.

The assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, Tim Malloy, said in the statement accompanying the poll’s release that “it’s hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump.”

There are obvious reasons why Trump’s standing may have declined even among those previously supportive of him.

The failure of the GOP effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare, signals the breach of a promise that Republican candidates had made since the law’s inception in 2010.

Additionally, the deepening probe into allegations of Russian collusion with Trump’s presidential campaign could be taking a toll.

Republican lawmakers have become increasingly willing to distance themselves from Trump on that issue.

They joined Democrats in passing a Russian sanctions bill with an overwhelming majority before leaving town for August.

In addition, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) separately introduced legislation with Democratic colleagues that would make it more difficult for the president to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, who is leading the probe into Russian matters.

But, for all that, some members of Trump’s base remain staunch in his defense and question the accuracy of the polling showing eroding support.

“I am in touch with a lot of the grassroots and I have seen precisely zero drop-off in support,” said Mark Meckler, the president of the Convention of States project. “Nobody is frustrated with the president, nobody is angry with the president.”

Meckler, who was a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots but denies that his current project is inspired by that movement, added that distrust of the media was widespread among the president’s supporters.

In his view, this leads to a defensive instinct to rally around him all the more, even when the news agenda seems to be negative for Trump.

“If anybody trusts the polls these days, they are just foolish,” Meckler added. “What people like me know is that if the polling shows the base falling away, the polls are false.”

Apparent evidence of erosion in the president’s support is not confined to the CNN and Quinnipiac polls, however.

Late last week, Republican firm Firehouse Strategies released a new survey of voters in four battleground states: Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

It found that the share of Republicans who held “strongly favorable” views of the president had fallen from roughly 54 percent to 45 percent since April. The share of Republicans with unfavorable views had also risen significantly, from 20.5 percent to 27.9 percent.

The firm, whose principals include several strategists close to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), interpreted the results to mean “Trump’s base is shrinking. He cannot take continued GOP support for granted in swing states.”

Late last month, a breakdown of state-level Gallup polls also showed an interesting geographical divide in Trump’s support.

His approval ratings were good in some bastions of support, including West Virginia, where he held a large rally last week. They were also adequate in Midwestern states such as Iowa and Ohio.

But in Republican redoubts in the South and Southwest, including Texas, Arizona and Georgia, Trump’s approval ratings were in negative territory — by 9 points in the first two states and 7 points in the third.

Still, Republican pollster David Winston cautioned against placing too much importance on what the polls are saying right now.

He suggested that most presidents experienced a fall in support in their first months in office. In Trump’s case, “this is a guy who got elected with 60 percent unfavorables, so his numbers were going to be inherently lower anyways.”

Winston added that the numbers that matter most to Trump’s prospects are not contained in any polls.

“How many jobs have been created and how much have wages gone up? All the other numbers — his poll numbers — will respond to whatever those numbers are.”

Boldfaced for emphasis, we have a thread on that topic.

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I'll just link this related OP ED piece rather than quote the whole thing, but, here's an exerpt:

Think about it. A Republican president governing with a Republican House and Senate has lost every major legislative battle in his first 200 days. No wonder a growing number of voters in the Trump base, like a majority of all voters, are concluding that Trump is running a fake presidency that does little for them but does much that hurts them, like his stance on healthcare.

[Edge-]

https://news.vice.com/story/trump-fo...ws-white-house

He'll probably never know this given his reported two scoops of masturbatory news he receives every day.

[Wvvtayy]

five thirty eight can go fuck themselves IMO. They were the ones saying Dump had like a 25% chance in winning on Election day, with the week prior being near 10%.

Their "odds" seem to shift every other day up until election day, and even then... >_<

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I'm not republican, but I can tell you exactly what they want and has their support:

Being a bully to liberals.

Seriously, at this point they'll gladly still vote Dump purely out of spite and hatred for being ultimately wrong. Since they can't be wrong, they just have to "hate librulz" more.

To be fair, 25 10 or even 0.00001% isn't zero, so they werent totally wrong.

[Deleted]

time for a war

[Garnier Fructis]

five thirty eight can go fuck themselves IMO. They were the ones saying Dump had like a 25% chance in winning on Election day, with the week prior being near 10%.

Their "odds" seem to shift every other day up until election day, and even then... >_<

Odds tend to do that when you have a constant stream of new data and developments.

[mvaliz]

Odds tend to do that when you have a constant stream of new data and developments.

Exactly - so they really don't matter until election day, do they? And even then... >_<

[ati87]

https://news.vice.com/story/trump-fo...ws-white-house

He'll probably never know this given his reported two scoops of masturbatory news he receives every day.

God at this point I don't want to even see the pee tape (just kidding, still want to see that), just give me one of his rants recorded plus them this folder.

[Edge-]

God at this point I don't want to even see the pee tape (just kidding, still want to see that), just give me one of his rants recorded plus them this folder.

By now I'm convinced the pee tape doesn't exist.

If it did, there's no way that TMZ wouldn't have gotten a hold of it by now. Unless they did, but have been sitting on it for months...and I'm not sure why they'd ever do that.

[Cthulhu 2020]

I remember when every poll said Trump didn't stand a chance of winning lol absolute bullshit.

"Didn't stand a chance" would imply every single poll showed him at 0%.

Go back and show us which polls showed him with a 0% chance. We'll wait.

The vast majority I saw had him at 25%-40% chance to win. There was one CNN "prediction" statistics that wasn't even a poll that put Hillary at 99% chance to win, but that wasn't even a poll, that was an internal algorithm of bullshit.

[ati87]

"Didn't stand a chance" would imply every single poll showed him at 0%.

Go back and show us which polls showed him with a 0% chance. We'll wait.

The vast majority I saw had him at 25%-40% chance to win. There was one CNN "prediction" statistics that wasn't even a poll that put Hillary at 99% chance to win, but that wasn't even a poll, that was an internal algorithm of bullshit.

Plus that was 2 months before the election, 2 weeks before the election the polls came within the margin of error.

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By now I'm convinced the pee tape doesn't exist.

If it did, there's no way that TMZ wouldn't have gotten a hold of it by now. Unless they did, but have been sitting on it for months...and I'm not sure why they'd ever do that.

If anybody has it it would be Puttin and co.

Still his morning rants do exist just I doubt that people are allowed to or are able to record the president

[Edge-]

If anybody has it it would be Puttin and co.

Still his morning rants do exist just I doubt that people are allowed to or are able to record the president

This is true, but TMZ gets everything. Shit, they regularly get private security footage of incidents before the police do. I hate the site/company, but I give them mad respect for being able to get the video/pictures that they end up getting. They've gotta have a truly massive list of contacts that are happy to give them sensitive data like that for the right price, that shit takes a long time and a ton of effort to build up and maintain.

Hence why I'm largely convinced that it doesn't exist. If it did, they've have secured it by now. Just like I was convinced that aliens haven't landed on earth and there's nothing at Area 51 within a week of Trump being president. Ain't no way homeboy would keep his mouth/fingers shut about it if there was.

[Lenonis]

Plus that was 2 months before the election, 2 weeks before the election the polls came within the margin of error.

Is it just me or is everyone's memory of polling seem to stop right before the Comey statement?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Clinton's chance of winning entered freefall starting Oct 28th when the Comey letter was released and wasn't anywhere near 90-99% on election day contrary to what people seem to keep claiming.

[Wvvtayy]

Is it just me or is everyone's memory of polling seem to stop right before the Comey statement?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Clinton's chance of winning entered freefall starting Oct 28th when the Comey letter was released and wasn't anywhere near 90-99% on election day contrary to what people seem to keep claiming.

Right. As I said, the final polls right before the election showed her at a 2% lead. She won the popular vote by 2%. The polls were accurate.

[Gestopft]

I'm not republican, but I can tell you exactly what they want and has their support:

Being a bully to liberals.

Seriously, at this point they'll gladly still vote Dump purely out of spite and hatred for being ultimately wrong. Since they can't be wrong, they just have to "hate librulz" more.

According to many (including on this forum), it doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do because Hillary/a liberal would be worse- but Hillary was uniquely unlikeable. A different Democratic candidate may not turn away moderates and independents the way she did. "Stick it to Liberals" in all likelihood isn't a winning coalition in a swing district or the country at large- especially if they continue to flail and flounder.

Right. As I said, the final polls right before the election showed her at a 2% lead. She won the popular vote by 2%. The polls were accurate.

According to the Electoral College, Trump won by 14.5%, so...fake news? :P

[Wvvtayy]

According to many (including on this forum), it doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do because Hillary/a liberal would be worse- but Hillary was uniquely unlikeable. A different Democratic candidate may not turn away moderates and independents the way she did. "Stick it to Liberals" in all likelihood isn't a winning coalition in a swing district or the country at large- especially if they continue to flail and flounder.



According to the Electoral College, Trump won by 14.5%, so...fake news? :P

I specifically said the popular vote. The polls are a measure of the popular vote. Who the fuck said anything about the electoral college?

[Gestopft]

I specifically said the popular vote. The polls are a measure of the popular vote. Who the fuck said anything about the electoral college?

Eh, thought the sarcasm was obvious.