538 predicts Trumps approval "floor" by the midterms will be in the low to mid 20s.

[Wvvtayy]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethi...al-rating/amp/

Interesting article overall but the part that stuck out for me has been his steady decline, described as consistently taking one step forward and two steps back. In a recent poll, about 61% of people who currently approve of Trump say they will always approve of Trump no matter what. This works out to be around 23% of Americans overall.

This spells bad news for Republicans during the midterms. Obama had an approval rating of 45% during the disastrous 2010 midterms. Obama and Trump's first term decline in approval have been following the same downward trend. The difference being, Obama started around 20% higher than Trump, starting out at 65 and Trump starting at 45.

[PACOX]

Dems can hedge on Trump handing them Congress. The Republicans want the Dems to fall for that trap.

[Wvvtayy]

538 - "Predicting" pretty obvious stuff and still getting it wrong sometimes anyway.

538 is the most accurate polling out there. Prior to the election they showed Hillary leading Trump by 2% and, what do you know, she won the popular vote by....... 2%.

[Garnier Fructis]

538 - "Predicting" pretty obvious stuff and still getting it wrong sometimes anyway.

Getting it wrong sort of comes with the territory when you're dealing with probabilities.

[fengosa]

538 - "Predicting" pretty obvious stuff and still getting it wrong sometimes anyway.

538 was one of the better sites for polls analysis before the election. In the days before the election they said if the polls were accurate Hillary would win but if they skewed closer to 50-50 it would give Trump an advantage specifically mentioning Michigan and Wisconsin as states with poor sample size vulnerable to turn.

They favoured Hillary 65-35 but clearly outlined Trumps path to victory.

[Edge-]

"Accurate polling"...you mean collecting other organizations polling data?



Well, they also said she was a huge favorite to win and projected her to win states that she actually lost. So eh, polls are polls.

"Polls got something wrong. THEY CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED AGAIN!"

Can we knock this nonsense off? Do you never both to look at weather forecasts because the weather guy said there was a high chance of rain but it didn't rain?

[Wvvtayy]

"Accurate polling"...you mean collecting other organizations polling data?



Well, they also said she was a huge favorite to win and projected her to win states that she actually lost. So eh, polls are polls.

...before the election they had her at a 68% chance of winning. That means they have trump a 32%, a number which you may recognize as not 0

[Moshots]

Tell me how their prediction on election night went then get back to me.

[Tinykong]

INB4 single digit approval rating Presidency.

[Breccia]

Let's talk about why this prediction is actually pretty severe.

When you look at 538's daily tracking poll you also have a list of graphs detailing how Trump is doing compared to Ford, Obama, etc. in the same timespan. (Hint: Trump is doing worse than all of them except Ford, with whom he's effectively tied) But as you can see, most Presidents do, in fact, lose rating over time. Campaign promises get broken or forgotten, hard decisions have to be made, etc.

But what's nonstandard is how much. I made a quick regression model using the listed Presidents except Bush W (9/11 was a nonstandard event) and Ford (pardoning Nixon was a nonstandard event). Of the remaining options, the average rate of loss over their first 2 years was 18.6% of their favorable rating on Day One. For example, Obama went from 62% to 50%, a drop of about twenty-one percent of his starting ratings. Some (Nixon term 1) did much better than others (Carter).

Trump was sworn in with a 44% favorable rating. Losing that averaged amount would drop him to 35%.

Where he already is.

Trump isn't losing 18.6% of his starting rating after two years, he's already lost it in six months. He's speedrunning his ratings into the crapper.

"So at his current rate of decline, where will he be in a total of two years?"

Losing 18.6 percent of his starting (44%) ratings every six months, would drop him to 19%. We have not had a President in living memory drop below twenty percent. Nixon resigned with 25 percent. Truman and both Bush's hit the low twenties (Bush W and Truman in their second term, Bush HW was not relected).

FiveThirtyEight is actually predicting Trump's already historically low approval ratings will drop by a slower rate than they already have been, despite the upcoming budget and debt ceiling struggles, threats with wars on multiple continents, and feuds with his own party that get worse by the day. They are giving him some credit.

But again, a reminder: low to mid-twenties is rare for Presidents in their entire tenure. Some of them took 8 years to do it. We have never seen it in two years. Even Ford climbed out of the hole he pardoned himself into, and by the end of two years, had ratings equal to Trump's on Day One.

[Wvvtayy]

Tell me how their prediction on election night went then get back to me.

Read my fucking posts dude. They showed Hillary at 2% ahead right before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2%. How dense are you?

[Moshots]

Read my fucking posts dude. They showed Hillary at 2% ahead right before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2%. How dense are you?

they also showed her winning the electoral by 120 points. and Wisconsin to Hillary by like 7%

[Blur4stuff]

And Trump still has a year to make several more fuck ups. It's not like he'll suddenly change everything about himself and win over independents and liberals.

If anything he'll lose more republicans. He's already started doing this with Afghanistan, transgender ban, etc...

[Kalador]

Tell me how their prediction on election night went then get back to me.

They didn't predict shit... They had 30% chance for Trump vs 70% chance for Clinton... it's like if I say ''you have more chance of rolling 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 than 5 or 6 when rolling a dice'' and then you roll 6 and you are like like ''damn your prediction suck''...

[Wvvtayy]

They didn't predict shit... They had 30% chance for Trump vs 70% chance for Clinton... it's like if I say ''you have more chance of rolling 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 than 5 or 6 when rolling a dice'' and then you roll 6 and you are like like ''damn your prediction suck''...

Don't bother, he obviously has 0 concept of how probability works or is being deliberately obtuse.

[Breccia]

I suppose it can only drop so far before all that's really left are the die-hards, at which point the rate of decline would certainly slow.

In theory, he could lose those very quickly.

Trump holds onto his base because they continue to believe blatant falsehoods and ignore reality. Sorry, there's no other way to defend Trump telling blatant objective falsehood after blatant objective falsehood and his rabid fanbase agreeing with him. But, and this is a key issue, they are listening to him. Intently.

At some point, Trump could (key word) flat-out admit he's flipping on a major campaign issue, and flat-out admit he's doing so. After a brutal struggle, he could say "You know what? The Wall isn't happening. I give up." or "I can't give tax cuts to the middle class, just to the rich. You understand." or "Despite Iran continuing to adhere to the Nuclear Deal, we're going to invade them anyhow and build a new nation. Those sounds you hear are Russian bombers." Basically, Trump is the only way Trump could lose his base, but it'd have to be blatant and he'd have to admit he changed his mind. At which point, he would lose a substantial portion all at once. None of this whittling away as people, thousand by thousand, realize they've been tricked, and during his rallies sit down and check social media (you read that thread too, right?)

There is currently no evidence that he's going to do such, and it would be out of character for the Narcissist-in-Chief to admit defeat while he still has someone to blame. And I am not yet convinced he'll be the one that vetoes a bipartisan budget or debt ceiling deal. But it could happen, and if it did, it would be sudden.

[Elegiac]

You're more of an optimist than I am! I'm still amazed that almost 37%...more than one in three!...people still think he's great. One out of every three, how is that even possible at this point?

A large number of people in this country derive almost the entirety of their worldview from a limited number of biased right wing media outlets or, you know, Facebook.

[Breccia]

One out of every three, how is that even possible at this point?

They've been taught that they can ignore science, and from that, they've decided they can ignore fact, too.

There is no other explanation. You've seen it even here. MMO-C's contingent of Twitler's rabid fanbase have stopped posting useful defenses. Even now, Alibaba is back to the old "I don't understand statistics so I must be right" defense, because Trump supporters like him have nothing useful to contribute. His six months have been measurably historically poor and he's objectively failed on the vast majority of things he's even pretended to try.

[Lenonis]

The article also stated that it's expected that there would be resistance to continual erosion due to the need to have non-expected behavior move the needle. So more outrageous Trump won't do it because it's expected now.

I expect further erosion to be slow and the polls to do a lot of bouncing around is the low-mid 30s before we start seeing anything starting with a 2 pop up.

And, really, the kiss of death for Trump will be if the GOP support dips below 50%, which I don't think it will.

I find it extreme disheartening that something like 24% of people said they would support Trump no matter what. There is never a time where it's ok for anyone to say they would support a president regardless of what they do.

That's...terrible. You might even say it's deplorable.

[Milchshake]

They've been taught that they can ignore science, and from that, they've decided they can ignore fact, too.

There is no other explanation. You've seen it even here. MMO-C's contingent of Twitler's rabid fanbase have stopped posting useful defenses. Even now, Alibaba is back to the old "I don't understand statistics so I must be right" defense, because Trump supporters like him have nothing useful to contribute. His six months have been measurably historically poor and he's objectively failed on the vast majority of things he's even pretended to try.

They've also been taught they can ignore popular support and the actual political will of the majority.

Will the drop in polling for Trump/GOP be enough to counter the; voter purges, voter ID laws, precinct closures, ratfucking et al? Just win some court wins are coming along for voting rights, will it move faster than the process of court packing?

I just cant shake my pessimism. So much was on the line in 2016 and voters blew it. The only way to counter all the ratfucking is with massive voter turnout. Turnout levels are even harder for polls to predict.