Trumpcare Back From Dead Again: Cassidy-Graham Cruelest Version Yet, Has 49 Votes

[Cthulhu 2020]

I linked the correlations above, they don't match your anecdata.

Calling the obesity rate difference between race so small as to be a sampling error is statistical illiteracy. The gap between black and white is 32.6% and 47.8%.

Heh, the numbers I looked at were from a few years before yours, and from an entirely different group. I'm not about to scream case polling is fake though, as that's the territory of the mentally infirm.

Look at the overall population of blacks vs whites. Look at the liberal centers of the country, and how big their populations are, ESPECIALLY white liberals. Now look at the bible belt and flyovers in question above in the map. Where do blacks predominantly live in the south? Big cities.

I don't dispute your overall numbers. What I am telling you is to look deeper at the numbers. A simple division between obesity rates between blacks and whites doesn't tell the whole story. Look at where people live. The "skinny whites" population is definitely concentrated in liberal areas, where obese whites are concentrated in... bible belt and flyover states.

Raw numbers in regards to obesity mean very little when not applied geographically - which is about as far from an "anecdote" as you can get.

[Sormine]

Although I do suspect that libertarians are usually libertarians because they're smart and wealthy and would do fine with it...

Are you accusing libertarians of being smart?

[Breccia]

Collins Is A No

TrumpCare 4.0 appears dead. But I've been surprised before.

A last-ditch ObamaCare repeal effort by Republicans was all but dead on Monday after Sen. Susan Collins became the third Republican to oppose the measure.

Collins announced her opposition minutes after the Congressional Budget Office released an analysis predicting that millions would lose insurance under the proposal if it became law.

That was enough for Collins, who had long been seen as an almost certain ‘no’ vote on the measure.

She joins Sens. John McCain (Ariz.) and Rand Paul (Ky.) as GOP “no” votes. Republicans can only afford two defections and still muscle the bill through the Senate.
In a lengthy statement, Collins said the most recent ObamaCare repeal bill, which had been reshaped Sunday in an effort to win her over, “was as deeply flawed as its previous iterations.”

She cited the CBO’s score as one of her reasons for opposing the legislation authored by GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Bill Cassidy (La.), while also criticizing its cuts to Medicaid, its weakening of protections for people with preexisting conditions and predictions by insurers, hospitals and other groups that it would lead to higher premiums and less coverage for people.

Collins also decried a Senate process that she said had been rushed along.

“Sweeping reforms to our health care system and to Medicaid can’t be done well in a compressed time frame, especially when the actual bill is a moving target,” said Collins, one of three Republicans along with McCain and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) to vote “no” on a previous slimmed-down ObamaCare repeal bill in July that appeared to end the debate.

“This is simply not the way we should be approaching an important and complex issue that must be handled thoughtfully and fairly for all Americans.”

It’s not clear whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will still try to hold a floor vote later this week, something some GOP donors and the White House may want to see just to get senators on the record.

“I think we’re going to need to have a meeting of our conference tomorrow ... so we can kind of see where everybody is before there will be any news,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters after a meeting in McConnell’s office on Monday evening.

It’s possible there could be more defections than just the three public GOP “no” votes, as Republicans in the center and on the right have both raised reservations about the measure.

[Edge-]

Collins Is A No

TrumpCare 4.0 appears dead. But I've been surprised before.

Figured she'd continue to vote no, wouldn't be surprised if Murkowski announced she will oppose as well.

Those darn "northeastern women", sinking the repeal again! Someone just needs to take them outside for a good old pistol duel.

[Breccia]

And here's the CBO partial report that likely made her say "no". As expected, untold millions lose coverage, block grants don't offset losses.

[Cthulhu 2020]

So the usual suspects came in here last time blaming Democrats, or called McConnell a RINO (along with other colorful names, "traitor" being a tame one) for the LAST bill's failure. I have to wonder who their outrage will be pointed at?

I mean, they DESPERATELY seem to want some kind of bill that will take approximately six times (6x) as many people off health insurance (and thus effective health care) as Jews were killed during WW2.

[Breccia]

Oh, and it's a little late now, but the vote will happen after a closed-door meeting tomorrow. Just...you know...FYI.

- - - Updated - - -

When asked if the GOP was going to combine tax reform and health care next fiscal, trying to get them both past reconciliation, Sen. Hatch said "Heavens no. We’re not going to do that. It would just screw up the whole thing.”

So, I guess they have to pick one or the other. Assuming TrumpCare 4.0 is as dead as the current "no" votes suggest -- it's not official yet! -- then their best bet is tax reform. There seems to be a better chance of going bipartisan with health care.

[Edge-]

Jesus...how much time did they burn on Trumpcare since the start of this year? All that time that could have gone towards tax reform, a budget, and countless other key pieces of legislation down the drain because the GOP didn't bother to spend the past 7-8 years even thinking about what they may replace Obamacare with.

I see we're 3/4ths of the way through the year and the GOP legislators are still very much struggling with this "governing" thing, they're still far too used to being an opposition party. And with the White House routinely sabotaging and undercutting them, rather then helping, this years legislative agenda continues to be off to a terrible start for them.

[Spectral]

Are you accusing libertarians of being smart?

Of course. They're a high income, high education demographic group.

[Breccia]

You know who the real loser is? CNN.

There is a live debate right now as Sanders, from what comments I've seen, is murdering Cassidy in front of a live studio audience. While that debate was ongoing, the CBO came out and Collins became a hard "no", making the debate obsolete. Well, except for the damage done to Graham who said it was okay to push a poor bill, if you believe in the idea.

- - - Updated - - -

Jesus...how much time did they burn on Trumpcare since the start of this year?

Well, as Sept 30th is this week, I would say "all of it".

They have nothing.

[Spectral]

Jesus...how much time did they burn on Trumpcare since the start of this year? All that time that could have gone towards tax reform, a budget, and countless other key pieces of legislation down the drain because the GOP didn't bother to spend the past 7-8 years even thinking about what they may replace Obamacare with.

I see we're 3/4ths of the way through the year and the GOP legislators are still very much struggling with this "governing" thing, they're still far too used to being an opposition party. And with the White House routinely sabotaging and undercutting them, rather then helping, this years legislative agenda continues to be off to a terrible start for them.

As incompetent and ham-fisted as they've been, it's worth noting that getting anything meaningful done is also legitimately hard. The Obama-mandate Congress in '08 really should have been able to move the needle a lot more than they did, but couldn't do so. The reasons were somewhat similar - if you have an opposition party that will give you nothing, you're beholden to grandstanders in your own party and get watered down bills.

[Shadowmelded]

You know who the real loser is? CNN.

There is a live debate right now as Sanders, from what comments I've seen, is murdering Cassidy in front of a live studio audience.

Ohyeah I forgot that was happening. Cassidy's opening statement trying to push the Charlie Gard thing again. Gross.

[Spectral]

And here's the CBO partial report that likely made her say "no". As expected, untold millions lose coverage, block grants don't offset losses.

From the link:

The CBO finds that spending under the bill would be $230 billion less from 2020 to 2026 compared to ObamaCare.

So something like ~$34 billion/year in savings. I guess it depends how many millions lose insurance whether that's a good policy decision. If it's in the 10 million range (I'm guessing this is close, could plausibly be low), this is a pretty bad deal.

Here's the full preliminary CBO writeup for those interested. Pretty short read, worth a perusal. Nothing surprising though.

[Masark]

I'm actually pretty surprised Texas has such low obesity rates

History suggests they'll be following the rest of the south over 35% shortly.

[Edge-]

As incompetent and ham-fisted as they've been, it's worth noting that getting anything meaningful done is also legitimately hard. The Obama-mandate Congress in '08 really should have been able to move the needle a lot more than they did, but couldn't do so. The reasons were somewhat similar - if you have an opposition party that will give you nothing, you're beholden to grandstanders in your own party and get watered down bills.

The Democrats didn't come in with 7 years worth of complaining about a specific bill, and then show up with their pants around their ankles and nothing to show after 7 years of symbolically pointless votes. They had to put the ACA together from scratch, the GOP had nearly a decade to work on their replacement and nothing to show for it other than them essentially getting caught with the pants around their ankles.

I won't disagree about the challenges that face a party, even if the hold the White House and both branches of Congress, but this is a pretty mind blowingly bad showing from them.

[Sormine]

Of course. They're a high income, high education demographic group.

The platform that believes a free market would solve environmental problems, health care, and education is smart? The guys that push to remove taxation while also hold a strong centralized military are smart? The party that seeks further reduction of labor group's strength in bargaining power? I'm pretty sure these guys haven't thought all of this through.

[Fugus]

The platform that believes a free market would solve environmental problems, health care, and education is smart? The guys that push to remove taxation while also hold a strong centralized military are smart? The party that seeks further reduction of labor group's strength in bargaining power? I'm pretty sure these guys haven't thought all of this through.

While I disagree with them on many things, it isn't the libertarians that believe in removing taxes and a strong military. That would be the republicans. Libertarians believe in both low taxes and small government period, including military from what I know, correct me if I am wrong.

As much as I disagree some a lot of their stuff, they do have more logical consistency then the republicans from what I have seen.

[Spectral]

The Democrats didn't come in with 7 years worth of complaining about a specific bill, and then show up with their pants around their ankles and nothing to show after 7 years of symbolically pointless votes. They had to put the ACA together from scratch, the GOP had nearly a decade to work on their replacement and nothing to show for it other than them essentially getting caught with the pants around their ankles.

I won't disagree about the challenges that face a party, even if the hold the White House and both branches of Congress, but this is a pretty mind blowingly bad showing from them.

While there wasn't the single bill that had been demagogued as the ACA was, universal healthcare was a Democrat policy goal for decades, including a major push from the Clintons in 1993. Hell, if Bill hadn't engaged in the some of the most spectacular nepotism in recent memory and had picked a qualified leader for the task force, they may have even gotten something done.

In any case, there were no shortage of solid policy proposals to pick from coming from think tanks. That they had to come up with the Frankenstein of policies that is the ACA is a testament to just how little parties can agree on even among themselves much less across the aisle.

One would think that if the Republicans had a shred of intellectual honesty or political courage a straight repeal would be pretty easy though. Gee, it's almost like they didn't actually believe the ACA was worse than the status quo. If I didn't know better, I'd think they were a pack of liars...

[Sormine]

While I disagree with them on many things, it isn't the libertarians that believe in removing taxes and a strong military. That would be the republicans. Libertarians believe in both low taxes and small government period, including military from what I know, correct me if I am wrong.

As much as I disagree some a lot of their stuff, they do have more logical consistency then the republicans from what I have seen.

They want the complete removal of income tax, so I'd love to see how they would accommodate funds appropriately.

[Spectral]

The platform that believes a free market would solve environmental problems, health care, and education is smart? The guys that push to remove taxation while also hold a strong centralized military are smart? The party that seeks further reduction of labor group's strength in bargaining power? I'm pretty sure these guys haven't thought all of this through.

I think libertarians are wrong about many things, but your characterization of their views in this post is pretty wrongheaded.

This also has no bearing on their intellect - as a group, they're intelligent and informed relative to other political orientations.