Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[Caolela]

The guilty plea directly references the fact that the Russia intermediary claimed to have thousands of hillary's emails at a time that was months BEFORE knowledge of the hack was public. That would be hacking the election.

No, that would not be evidence of hacking an election. This is someone "claiming" to have had e-mails that no one has determined how he may have gotten them.

Speculation.

[Edge-]

No, that would not be evidence of hacking an election.

You're the only one still talking about this. Bring the goalposts back to the same field we're all playing on, dude.

[draynay]

One day someone will explain to me how Pro-Trump is so uniformly bad at their defense. I try and put myself in their shoes and I can't believe the terrible arguments they're making. Objectively speaking, their very defense and deflection strategy has been a stinker from the start.

Did our side get all the smart people or something?

Sensible people make sensible arguments, some other kind of people make ridiculous fallacious arguments.

[Breccia]

In case anyone was wondering if these charges would shake one of his only remaining "bases" - Evangelicals.

Regardless of the possible legal issues with a blanket pardon, and the issues with a pardon basically requiring guilt, it would remain a PR catastrophe worse than the other PR catastrophe (Puerto Rico death toll coming up on a thousand). I don't know if it's even possible to say "anyone who might have committed a crime helping me, you're off the hook" with a legal backing or straight face, but I know it would be inexcusable, even by GOP standards.

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Not that they haven't been propaganda for years.

Death panels.

[DarkTZeratul]

No, that would not be evidence of hacking an election. This is someone "claiming" to have had e-mails that no one has determined how he may have gotten them.

Speculation.

This is not, and never has been, about Russia directly hacking the election. That you're still somehow convinced it is despite literally nobody seriously advancing that theory for almost an entire year says far more about you and your apparent inability to understand nuance than it does about anyone involved with, or following, this investigation.

[Grapemask]

Doubtful. Most likely his lawyer will hold off until it shows that Trump is going to be forced out of office, or get's re-elected, at that point he will pardon Manafort. Manafort is smart enough to know to keep quiet, plead the fifth, and ride this out.

Given what Team Mueller has outlined, they have enough on Manafort that he doesn't have to say anything to further the case against him. Him talking would be solely for his own benefit.

"Riding it out" would hinge entirely on the hopes that he'd get pardoned from a minimum of the rest of his life in prison, and his pardon rests on Trump - a man who has shown no loyalty to anyone but himself, and has historically turned on all of his closest allies to date save his own family. And Trump has a lot of incentive to distance himself from Manafort: any movement in that direction would be an astronomical shove towards an impeachment-friendly Congress, and an impeached President can go to prison if he himself is not pardoned.

[Skroe]

Doubtful. Most likely his lawyer will hold off until it shows that Trump is going to be forced out of office, or get's re-elected, at that point he will pardon Manafort. Manafort is smart enough to know to keep quiet, plead the fifth, and ride this out.

Unlikely and here's why.

Mueller is going for Civil Asset Forfeiture for Manafort and Gates. It was the last item in the indictment. The FBI is laying claim to their entire lives.

Due to the financial crimes being in question, as explained far up in the thread the court will demand that Manafort show income and assets independent of what is being accused of being illicitly gained. Manafort, who is not clearly employed by anybody, seems to have no such avenue. Which means the FBI and Treasury will freeze nearly every penny Manafort owns.

THis has profound implications, namely on Manafort's family. Just being Manafort is indicted doesn't mean that his rather extensive list of monthly bills suddenly doesn't need to stop being paid. Times are about to be come quite tight around the Manafort household. And on top of that, if Manafort is convicted, his family could be left destitute.

That is why Manafort will likely cut a deal and not go down for Trump. A venal man like himself may fight in isolation. But when his wife and children's futures are on the line too?

[Machismo]

Given the events of the day, it would be far more believable if they swore they didn't breathe oxygen.

"So, Jeff... I know I've been insulting you since you got here, but is there anything you can do to make it go away."

"Nope, you're going to have to ride this one out."

"Don't talk to me like that, you're fired!!!"

"No I'm not."

[Breccia]

THis has profound implications, namely on Manafort's family. Just being Manafort is indicted doesn't mean that his rather extensive list of monthly bills suddenly doesn't need to stop being paid.

Before anyone challenges Skroe on this: it has literally happened already with Flynn's family. Incidentally, if you read back the last 20 pages or so (gosh, news came fast today!) you see the suggestion that Flynn has turned -- his profound broketitude could be a factor in such.

[mage21]

Unlikely and here's why.

Mueller is going for Civil Asset Forfeiture for Manafort and Gates. It was the last item in the indictment. The FBI is laying claim to their entire lives.

Due to the financial crimes being in question, as explained far up in the thread the court will demand that Manafort show income and assets independent of what is being accused of being illicitly gained. Manafort, who is not clearly employed by anybody, seems to have no such avenue. Which means the FBI and Treasury will freeze nearly every penny Manafort owns.

THis has profound implications, namely on Manafort's family. Just being Manafort is indicted doesn't mean that his rather extensive list of monthly bills suddenly doesn't need to stop being paid. Times are about to be come quite tight around the Manafort household. And on top of that, if Manafort is convicted, his family could be left destitute.

That is why Manafort will likely cut a deal and not go down for Trump. A venal man like himself may fight in isolation. But when his wife and children's futures are on the line too?

Considering the charges, I wonder if Manafort has any deal to cut in regards to Trump. The vast bulk of Manafort's concern is 2014 and prior.

[Breccia]

"No I'm not."

Heh, there's, what, three or four people that could do that? Session's resignation and/or firing because of Mueller would be hilarious, and more importantly, evidence for the obstruction charges.

[Lenonis]

I'm taking the number of banned alt-right and so-called independent posters as a sign that this really has the right shaken up. Kind of nice to see posters who spent so much time trying to gaslight the forums with their conspiracy theories and nothingburgers having to take a time out.

[Machismo]

Doubtful. Most likely his lawyer will hold off until it shows that Trump is going to be forced out of office, or get's re-elected, at that point he will pardon Manafort. Manafort is smart enough to know to keep quiet, plead the fifth, and ride this out.

And if Trump pardon's Manafort, Trump goes down for it all. Trump will not pardon him, because it will be an admission of guilt. His political career would be over. If Manafort does not deal, he will likely spend the rest of his life in prison.

[Breccia]

Considering the charges, I wonder if Manafort has any deal to cut in regards to Trump.

We'll find out. There's no telling what a, well, Russian agent like Manafort has on tape. Or, it could be that Mueller doesn't need anything from Manafort, and is looking elsewhere.

The only way we don't find out at trial is if he flees the country. Which would be hilarious.

[Zandermill]

Skroe,

While I'd tend to agree with you, I have no doubt that Manafort has hidden assets that the Government will not find, as well as favors owed by individuals. Look no further than Kwame Kilpatrick from Detroit. He had all assets ceased, yet his family comfortably lives in a million dollar home, with his wife having sub employment. You're smart enough to know that he (Manafort) will plead the fifth and go to prison, because pardon non withstanding - his family will be taken care of.

You're correct on the only gamble being whether Trump pardons him or not, which if he ends up going to impeachment, or even staying in as President and either being voted out, or voted back in, he will have no reason not to issue some of the weirdest pardons the US will have ever seen at this point in history.

Fun to watch for sure.

[Machismo]

Considering the charges, I wonder if Manafort has any deal to cut in regards to Trump. The vast bulk of Manafort's concern is 2014 and prior.

That would depend on the information Manafort has.

[mage21]

I'm taking the number of banned alt-right and so-called independent posters as a sign that this really has the right shaken up. Kind of nice to see posters who spent so much time trying to gaslight the forums with their conspiracy theories and nothingburgers having to take a time out.

Principled individuals on either side of the aisle should support the rule of law, and of justice, wherever that leads. Even if it's against someone they like.

However, the obstacle here is that having a foreign policy adviser arrange contacts, and engage in contacts with foreign governments is nothing new or interesting. It really needs to be shown that those at the top knew about the nature of those specific meetings which centered around the offer for damaging information on Hillary Clinton.

It's clear that efforts by Papadopoulos to connect the Trump campaign with Russian officials continued after the offer of "dirt", but it's not clear that these efforts involved him disclosing this offer to the Trump campaign, or talking to them about it specifically (and if he did, that those at the top were warm to it). It's entirely possible that it continued to be presented that he was simply developing political relationships with foreign officials.

[Machismo]

Heh, there's, what, three or four people that could do that? Session's resignation and/or firing because of Mueller would be hilarious, and more importantly, evidence for the obstruction charges.

I could see Mattis doing it, as well.

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We'll find out. There's no telling what a, well, Russian agent like Manafort has on tape. Or, it could be that Mueller doesn't need anything from Manafort, and is looking elsewhere.

The only way we don't find out at trial is if he flees the country. Which would be hilarious.

Manafort fleeing, or a Trump pardon, may be the best possible solution for his opponents. It would show just how corrupt Trump is, once and for all. It would show there's a cover up, and Trump would be fucked.

[Skroe]

Considering the charges, I wonder if Manafort has any deal to cut in regards to Trump. The vast bulk of Manafort's concern is 2014 and prior.

At this stage? It is unclear.

Down the road? Almost certainly.

Pro-Trump is making a critical error and has been for months - that Mueller has only one road that leads to Donald Trump. That's now been shown to be patently false (Papadapolous) and that is why Mueller also shocked the worled by unveiling that he's been cooperating for 25 days TODAY.

By unveiling the guilty plea today, at the same time Manafort and Gates are indicted, Mueller is telling all of their co-conspirators that that he has MANY routes to Trump (really, who knows how many) that they could not even dream of, and that he doesn't need all, or even most of them to get Trump. He just needs some or a few of them. Why is this important? Consider the leniency they're showing Papadapoulous. The implication is: come in early and help, and we'll go easy on you. Wait it out, and we won't need you and we'll throw the book at you.

That's the message Mueller is sending: the window to turn on each other and help the investigation is now, and won't be open forever, and you can either walk away with this and probably land a talking head job on CNN in 5 years, or you will die in prison and lose everything.

I don't think Manafort has flipped yet. I think Flynn has (his primary source of income is his ~$180,000 a year military pension, and his family is dependent on it, and the Army, which already hated him, would be happy to suspend it if he is convicted). But I think Manafort and others will in due time, because Mueller has made clear: those who come in first, get off easy, those who wait are utterly screwed.

[Xandrigity]

Skroe,

While I'd tend to agree with you, I have no doubt that Manafort has hidden assets that the Government will not find, as well as favors owed by individuals. Look no further than Kwame Kilpatrick from Detroit. He had all assets ceased, yet his family comfortably lives in a million dollar home, with his wife having sub employment. You're smart enough to know that he (Manafort) will plead the fifth and go to prison, because pardon non withstanding - his family will be taken care of.

You're correct on the only gamble being whether Trump pardons him or not, which if he ends up going to impeachment, or even staying in as President and either being voted out, or voted back in, he will have no reason not to issue some of the weirdest pardons the US will have ever seen at this point in history.

Fun to watch for sure.

Trump will pardon Manafort and anyone else caught up with mueller shortly before he leaves office. He wouldn’t pardon anyone right off the bat.