We finally know WoW's sub count post-Legion! (kinda)

[Shadowferal]

Well, the subs are not really high compared to how the number of pc players grew in the past. When WoW was at its peak, 2008, there were around 1.1bn pc gamers. Today it is 1.86bn PC gamers. Source: https://explodingtopics.com/blog/pc-gaming-stats
While wow had a total concurrent sub count of 12-13m subs in those days, it nowadays has 8m subs, shared among multiple different versions of world of warcraft. While it had the same amount of subs earlier for retail.
Compared to the grown size of the total PC playerbase, and taking in credit that way more than a total of 100m players already played WoW, it obviously cannot adress any kind of majority of players for any longer. Also considering that the amount of players drops always short after a new expac or classic version releases.
In total: WoW changed from being the first broad audience MMORPG to adress different niches. WoW retail nowadays adresses transmog casuals and hardcore raiders / hard dungeon players, classic adresses old players from the former generation, hardcore addresses a small hardcore gamer niche and a large youtube video audience. And whenever retail releases a new expac, it lures in millions of players just to drop down back to a new low after either more or less of expac lifetime. Infact, blizzard abandoned the mass market in favor of a few niches, while they could adress way more players than in 2008 nowadays, and even could gain back all the old players if they either would adress their gameplay needs in additional versions of the game or if retail would cater to many again.
That is at least my conclusion. You are free to disagree.

Can't disagree.
I think Blizz deliberately changed the metric of the game. I believe most players had year-long subscriptions back before MoP. After MoP...especially nowadays, it reversed, most players are part-timers, canceling a month or so. Sure, Blizz is still making bank, but that profit has to look a lot smaller...and between job losses, and the latest shallow expansion...(i have to wonder at how long SoD will continue to look good to me)

[Pann]

and youre wrong, classic lost over half its players months after its initial launch, the graph reflects this

I wouldn't read too much into that as it is likely that Classic benefitted from retail players checking it out which inflated both the gains and losses.

[jeezusisacasual]

Can't disagree.
I think Blizz deliberately changed the metric of the game. I believe most players had year-long subscriptions back before MoP. After MoP...especially nowadays, it reversed, most players are part-timers, canceling a month or so. Sure, Blizz is still making bank, but that profit has to look a lot smaller...and between job losses, and the latest shallow expansion...(i have to wonder at how long SoD will continue to look good to me)

What expansion was shallow? Shadowlands? Because DF is clearly not shallow in terms of content. WoW has more content now then it did during any previous great era in its history, look at TBC and compare that with content to do on a daily basis to Dragonflight, hell take everyones favorite expansion WoTLK and compare that with amount of content added its not even close. You have to take off your rose tinted glasses and look at the amount of content even the expansion so many hated ( BFA ) had more content then WoTLK had given the amount of voice dialogue, cutscenes, things to do that was not raiding.

It might not be content you want to do but who wants to do everything in the game anyway. I tried playing Season of discovery but it lacks repeatable dungeon content which means its less diablo like for my tastes so i leave to the less dedicated/skilled players to enjoy while they continue to pay for my content i enjoy. There is no brutal checks in season of discovery and has no real mastery and skill progression that i want similar to mastering a boss in a souls like game its to bloody easy making it not worth my time.

[Relapses]

And who said i'm the center of the universe?. I didn't.

You don't need to say anything for it to be plainly obvious that you have a serious case of Main Character Syndrome.

Is just that I don't understand you Relapses. Every single time I used to mention Belullar and Asmon, you even made fun of me. Now I see Belullar subs numbers graphic and....you are the one posting it. I'm shocked.

If Asmon had made a similar statement I would have referenced him instead. I doubt he would because his entire brand is shitting on Blizzard and appealing to Capital-G gamers who want a safe space to share memes with the n-word in them but if he did, I have no qualms admitting a person I dislike had an opinion I agreed with. On the same token, I don't like Bellular either (note I called him Baldular in the OP). I think his videos are generally a bunch of reactionary outrage porn. But even I can acknowledge when the data he's presenting makes sense, even if he decides to go back to making clickbait dogshit immediately after he released this video (which is exactly what he did).

I'm starting to think you only like to post the things you like to hear from them. But the rest of the time, you hate these streamers. Then, just don't make them more popular by showing "How right they are", with this graphic.

If I had my own YouTube channel I'd gladly run these low-IQ clickbait merchants through the coals. But I don't so I'm relegated to posting my opinions on this forum. That might change at some point but I've got way too much going on outside this game atm.

[Echocho]

I wouldn't read too much into that as it is likely that Classic benefitted from retail players checking it out which inflated both the gains and losses.

It's a graph of subscribers you fucking moron. If it was existing players checking out Classic the line would be flat. Subscribers doubled with the launch of Classic, do you think that millions of people suddenly decided to subscribe to retail and "check out Classic"?

[Relapses]

It's a graph of subscribers you fucking moron. If it was existing players checking out Classic the line would be flat. Subscribers doubled with the launch of Classic, do you think that millions of people suddenly decided to subscribe to retail and "check out Classic"?

Dunno why you're so hostile. It's not incorrect to point out that there is only a single subscription regardless of which version of WoW you choose to play.

[Echocho]

Dunno why you're so hostile. It's not incorrect to point out that there is only a single subscription regardless of which version of WoW you choose to play.

No but it is incorrect to say that subs increase because it's retail players checking out Classic. Unless he's 12 there's no excuse for not being able to read and understand a graph.

[doledippers]

No but it is incorrect to say that subs increase because it's retail players checking out Classic. Unless he's 12 there's no excuse for not being able to read and understand a graph.

well, if you wanna be technical all returning players at the point of classic were retail players, since the only game was retail up to that point

[Stickiler]

Well, the subs are not really high compared to how the number of pc players grew in the past. When WoW was at its peak, 2008, there were around 1.1bn pc gamers. Today it is 1.86bn PC gamers.

Source: https://explodingtopics.com/blog/pc-gaming-stats

While wow had a total concurrent sub count of 12-13m subs in those days, it nowadays has 8m subs, shared among multiple different versions of world of warcraft. While it had the same amount of subs earlier for retail.

Can't disagree.
I think Blizz deliberately changed the metric of the game. I believe most players had year-long subscriptions back before MoP. After MoP...especially nowadays, it reversed, most players are part-timers, canceling a month or so. Sure, Blizz is still making bank, but that profit has to look a lot smaller...and between job losses, and the latest shallow expansion...(i have to wonder at how long SoD will continue to look good to me)

According to Activision-Blizzards own Financial reports, you're wrong about the concurrent sub numbers, and the metrics. That 12 million figure included people who play in internet cafes. It specifically lists, in the fineprint of the report which crowed about "12 million subscribers"! that "subscribers include monthly subscribers, as well as people who paid for at least an hour of WoW at a pc cafe"
PC Cafe users don't buy expansions, don't contribute any significant amount of money to WoW, and most likely heavily inflated that monthly subscriber figure, even though they're just trying out the game.

[Relapses]

No but it is incorrect to say that subs increase because it's retail players checking out Classic. Unless he's 12 there's no excuse for not being able to read and understand a graph.

I don't think that's what the guy meant. Seemed like he was just mentioning that there's overlap going both ways, not that it was all retail players.

[Pann]

It's a graph of subscribers you fucking moron. If it was existing players checking out Classic the line would be flat. Subscribers doubled with the launch of Classic, do you think that millions of people suddenly decided to subscribe to retail and "check out Classic"?

What's with the attitude? Is there any need to be rude?

It is likely (similar to MAUs) that when a player with an active sub logs into classic they are counted as a subscriber and the same when a player logs on retail thus a player can account for two subs in the sub count. The rapid rise and decline in the graph would seem to support this.

It is also supported by the fact that Subscription, licensing, and other revenues accounted for less in 2019 than 2017 (2018's figures included BFA launch and therefore not comparable) - $4,514 compared to $4,907M - if subscriber numbers had doubled in 2019 it is reasonable to expect that income would be higher than 2017 and not nearly $400M less. This further supported by the fact the Q3 '19 Subscription, licensing, and other revenues was lower than Q3 '18 and Q3 '17 (1,022 vs 1,249 vs 1,234). If there had been an influx of new paying subscribers you would expect Q3 '19 to outperform the previous two years Q3s.

The fact that there has been a large growth in sub numbers without a corresponding growth in revenue suggests that something changed in the way they record sub numbers.

No, I do not think that people suddenly, or otherwise, subscribed to retail to check out classic although technically that is exactly what a classic player would have do.

I think that it is likely that a large number of retail players checked out classic when it first launched, and were counted as retail and classic subscribers, which inflated the the initial gains and subsequent losses.

[Dhrizzle]

I quickly scaled it to match the old MMO-C sub reports (click for bigger image.)

[VMSmith]

unfortunately (well, fortunately in this case) it doesn't matter what you think when the numbers prove you wrong

It's worth remembering that there are no "numbers", just Bellular's best guess. He could be perfectly correct, he could be wildly off-base, we have no way of knowing because what Blizz showed could mean anything or nothing beyond the trends they were talking about.

[Ereb]

I quickly scaled it to match the old MMO-C sub reports (click for bigger image.)

lol I was wondering about that old graph "the cycle of a product" everybody said proved wow was gonna die in WOD XD

Nice work thank you for this grand view of the entire timeline

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It's worth remembering that there are no "numbers", just Bellular's best guess. He could be perfectly correct, he could be wildly off-base, we have no way of knowing because what Blizz showed could mean anything or nothing beyond the trends they were talking about.

There was a dev or somebody official confirming that the numbers were pretty spot on on twitter

[fazaim]

I believe most players had year-long subscriptions back before MoP.

I see no reason to believe this. What do you base it on?

[Shadowferal]

I see no reason to believe this. What do you base it on?

Blizz themselves came out and said as a tip to log the hell off and go out and touch grass every few days or so with real-life friends. The game was that addictive. Of course, if you've been playing only since the last few expansions I can certainly understand why it's hard to believe that people felt they were receiving more than their money's worth.

[Stickiler]

Blizz themselves came out and said as a tip to log the hell off and go out and touch grass every few days or so with real-life friends. The game was that addictive. Of course, if you've been playing only since the last few expansions I can certainly understand why it's hard to believe that people felt they were receiving more than their money's worth.

I actually can't believe you're taking what was clearly a joking loading screen tip(One that still exists, by the way), and using that as some kind of evidence for literally anything.

[Pann]

It's worth remembering that there are no "numbers", just Bellular's best guess. He could be perfectly correct, he could be wildly off-base, we have no way of knowing because what Blizz showed could mean anything or nothing beyond the trends they were talking about.

I am happy to proved wrong but whilst I think Bellular's methodology was sound I suspect that the figures are closer to the off-base end of the spectrum simply because of WoW China.

WoW China shutdown on 23rd Jan 2023 and we know from the last regional breakdown that China accounted for 55% of the player base, obviously since ATVI have not released a regional breakdown for several years it is likely that this percentage has not remained static. However even if China had fallen to, say, 25% of players I would still expect a sharp decline at the end of Jan 23 yet the graph shows steady growth. I suspect that this growth is in part due to players from China migrating to Western severs.

I also find it unlikely that after losing somewhere large portion of their players (30-60%??) after the China shutdown that subscriber population is 30% higher than the last released sub numbers, even if they are double counting players who play classic and retail.

The graph, from which the estimate is derived from, appears to be from a presentation that is attempting to learn from past subscriber trends therefore it makes little sense for them to include Chinese players as Chinese servers have shutdown and it is unknown, at present, when or if they will re-open.

Also it is possible that trends with Chinese players may mask trends in Western markets (their current sub base), for example different timings of public holidays. I, also, believe that they would want to focus on features and content that would drive sub growth in their current market therefore it would make sense to exclude Chinese subs in the presented data and focus on trends within the Western market.

Maybe I am missing something and as I said I am happy to proved wrong but without an explanation as to why there is no fluctuation in the sub numbers when WoW China shutdown I am sceptical that the estimated figure is accurate.

[fazaim]

Blizz themselves came out and said as a tip to log the hell off and go out and touch grass every few days or so with real-life friends. The game was that addictive. Of course, if you've been playing only since the last few expansions I can certainly understand why it's hard to believe that people felt they were receiving more than their money's worth.

That screen, it's still there and what does that have to do with 1 year sub contra 1 or 3 month subs? Those were different times and subscription wasn't cheap.

I think I can fairly assume the playerbase back then (vanilla through MoP) was on average younger than it is today. Physical gamecards were a thing for a long time, and as a pretty young player myself starting when I was 12 (30 now), in my circle of friends it was very often a hassle to get money for the next month, as we were kids and saved up lunch money 'cause parents wouldn't pay (directly) for something so stupid. Sometimes if one of us had no way to get money we'd pool up what we had for the poor little shit and buy it for him, or once we went and delivered plastic bottles we picked up from around town to a "pawn-machine," which it's called in Norway, that gave you ca. 10-15 cent per bottle. Now, this was in Norway, a country well off economically. I can only imagine what other kids got up to to get money for the next month. So yes, I know how addicting it was. Has nothing to do with 1 year subs though.

In nearly 20 years of playing, never have I ever considered 1 year sub, nor have I seen any of my friends be constistently playing for a whole year straight. My friendlist have been much more consistent after classic was released though, as people can switch between versions, I imagine.

From what I remember, the 1 year sub came around the time Cata seemed to fall off, a not so addicting period in the history of WoW, so not only wouldn't it have been available in previous expansion but maybe the "remaining few" so to speak bought the full year sub just before MoP which might've created the illusion of it being more sold than it was.

[Shadowferal]

I actually can't believe you're taking what was clearly a joking loading screen tip(One that still exists, by the way), and using that as some kind of evidence for literally anything.

It's easy to be in denial considering that the current state of the game is about canceling the sub after a month of play...which I believe was unheard of back then.
But all I have left is anecdotal and you won't believe that either.

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From what I remember, the 1 year sub came around the time Cata seemed to fall off, a not so addicting period in the history of WoW, so not only wouldn't it have been available in previous expansion but maybe the "remaining few" so to speak bought the full year sub just before MoP which might've created the illusion of it being more sold than it was.

I was continuously subbed for 8yrs...