More Math - feral DPS changes

[arel00]

After the Bear mitigation changes, time for another math model. The Cat DPS!

Again, start with these assumptions:
- I used my gear as a reference, to get the stats
- I considered all the typical raid buffs, henceforth the stats' variation, but not Heroism/Bloodlust
- "chance on hit" effects have been averaged into flat values, based on their proc chance and average uptime
So don't get scared at the AP or ArP numbers, for once. It's taking into account things like the Berserk enchant and Grim Toll.
I also assume a somewhat "perfect" rotation, with a 100% uptime on Rip, Rake and SR without clipping any of the bleedings. It's unreal, but simulations have to work this way. Human reflexes are hard to factor.

For 3.1 modelling I used this spec:
http://talent.mmo-champion.com/?drui...0&version=9626
Glyph are: Rip, Savage Roar and the new Shred one. My gear includes the T7 bonus on Rip duration, which configures for a total of 26 seconds, and the Rip idol, which gives Rip a net increase of 105 damage per tick, before the new SR applies.

Stats come out like this:
- 14623AP, with Savage Roar up, with 3.0.9
- 10499AP after 3.1 changes (yes, with all the procs we're beyond the "agility" threshold)
- 51% crit chance in both cases
- 0.25% avoided attacks in both cases, due to boss' dodging

Without reposting all the math, I'll explain it a bit, to make it a bit clearer. It basically consists into calculating the DPS provided by white attacks, Mangle (refreshed at the end of the debuff), Shred, Rake, Rip. I didn't account for Bite since it tends to screw up badly the model. This has to take into account the crit chance and the avoided attacks (1-roll attack table), and of course the armor reduction opposed by the boss (debuffed by Sunders etc) to white, Mangle and Shred dps.

It ends up like this:
- estimated DPS with current patch (in an ideal situation), 4853DPS
- estimated DPS from Bleeding damage with current patch, 1501DPS, 31% of the total
Factoring *only* Primal gore:
- estimated DPS after PG, 5768DPS
- estimated DPS from Bleeding damage after PG, 2416DPS, 42% of the total
Factoring all changes, glyphs, SR and so on:
- estimated DPS after 3.1 changes, 6143DPS
- estimated DPS from Bleeding Damage after 3.1 changes, 2647DPS, 43% of the total

DPS increment from 3.0.9 to 3.1 with Primal gore only: 18.8%
DPS increment from 3.0.9 to 3.1 with full changes as they are now: 26.5%

We all knew it is a buff. I hope I gave you an idea of how strong the buff is. Just some quick considerations: the new Shred glyph alone accounts for a 1% dps increase, the SR glyph is, ofc, a net 6%, the SR change is little under 1%.
Also, while it may seem we're breaking the 10k AP threshold, don't get fooled. This is factoring procs as averaged buffs. In reality they are procs, thus answering to the RNG.

[Catoblepas]

Is this a spreadsheet standalone, or have you been on the PTR too?

[ReD-EyeD]

I like math threads. Thank you for your work.

[Furo]

Thank you for the work arel00.
May I ask on what base you chose the Glyphs?
I am thinking about the new shred one, extending the Rip duration.. could it possibly screw up the rotations anyhow?
And what do you think of the Berserk Glyph (+5 sec duration), only from dps PoV?

[ReD-EyeD]

And you know what?
NOW we really NEED -aggro ability. Do it, Blizzard.
For example:
Thick Hide now also reduces your aggro gain in cat form by 5/10/15% and increases aggro gain in bear form by 3/7/10%

[Boondocks]

forgive me my really stupid questio but since I am a Bear tank i'd rarely glyph Rip.
What strikes me is if you say you can extend the duration of it to 26 seconds, how do you calculate the overall dmg?
Does it keep on ticking with the same ticks as in the "normal" 12 second version thus making its overall dmg higher or is the dmg simply split and overalls tays the same?
I tested with 4/t7 and the overall dmg stayed the same with 12 seconds oder 15 seconds ticking....was I mistaken?

[arel00]

Is this a spreadsheet standalone, or have you been on the PTR too?

I've been doing the math model before the slow transfer enabled me to go on the PTR. As far as math goes, the model is correctly taking into account all the 3.1 changes so far.
PTR firsthand testing may allow me to parse different results from Recount data, thus there is a chance that I suddenly realize I missed something in the model and adjust it.
But math models, by definitions, are based upon the formula we're given to work with the class. If they are correct, and I didn't miss changes, the model should be as close to reality as possible. Of course, there is lag and human reaction time to factor when you effectively do it, as well as every unpredictable or situation change that may happen in raids. These are the limits of theory.

Thank you for the work arel00.
May I ask on what base you chose the Glyphs?
I am thinking about the new shred one, extending the Rip duration.. could it possibly screw up the rotations anyhow?
And what do you think of the Berserk Glyph (+5 sec duration), only from dps PoV?

I first chose the glyphs based on my game sense. That is a limit of course, but here's the reasoning behind: Primal Gore is the main buff we're getting with 3.1, thus, given that it affects bleedings, it seemed a good choice to buff them as much as possible. Which means, now, buffing Rip (our highest DPE move, btw). The SR one is a net 6% dps increase, no math needs to be done there, so that was an obvious choice too.
I did the math without the Shred glyph too, because I wanted to see how much of a dps increase that was. So I can redo it again taking the glyph away if needed, I still have the formulas set at the proper place.
Regarding your second question, it goes like this: if we configure a rotation around a full 26 seconds Rip, with (as I usually do) a 4CP SR lasting 28 seconds, we may end up with a more regular rotation than now. There is a chance, by these changes, that we can do a 4SR/5Rip/5Bite rotation, generating CPs in between by Shred, Rake and Mangle where the only limit is the debuffs' duration. This WILL require PTR testing, but it may seem a good chance to try. Thus, more than screwing it up, it could allow a way more regular cycle, taking away some of Bite's randomness.
Considering I wasn't factoring Bite, because of its odd energy expenditure, these changes may consequently be a larger buff than the model shows. I had short time to work on it, so I did what I could. I'll see what I can do.
As for the Berserk glyph, I personally don't find it that good, even if it's a 33% increase, cooldown-enhancing glyphs tend to be less reliable, generally, than ability-enhancing ones. That's personal, anyway. I should do more math on that, and check both on the PTR now that I can.

forgive me my really stupid questio but since I am a Bear tank i'd rarely glyph Rip.
What strikes me is if you say you can extend the duration of it to 26 seconds, how do you calculate the overall dmg?
Does it keep on ticking with the same ticks as in the "normal" 12 second version thus making its overall dmg higher or is the dmg simply split and overalls tays the same?
I tested with 4/t7 and the overall dmg stayed the same with 12 seconds oder 15 seconds ticking....was I mistaken?

Legit question. It actually keeps ticking at the same damage, thus increasing its duration is a direct increase in the total damage. Given that Rip ticks every 2 seconds (unlike Rake, which ticks every 3) we get 6 ticks out of its original 12sec uptime. If you extend it all the way to 26sec, you get a 14sec increase, which converts into 7 more ticks at the original damage. It's a net 216% damage increase.
By the way, Rip, with these changes, configures as 13 ticks capable of critting, with all the damage buffed by 36% by the new (glyphed) SR. If you average out the crit chance and translate it into damage, you get an average damage from Rip of something like... 35-40k damage. Pretty good for 30 energy, isn't it?

[Catoblepas]

And you know what?
NOW we really NEED -aggro ability. Do it, Blizzard.
For example:
Thick Hide now also reduces your aggro gain in cat form by 5/10/15% and increases aggro gain in bear form by 3/7/10%

I'm pretty certain cat form has the passive aggro reduction that rogue has. And we've got Cower. Also, tank tps is stupidly over the top.

We'll be fine.

I've been doing the math model before the slow transfer enabled me to go on the PTR. As far as math goes, the model is correctly taking into account all the 3.1 changes so far.
PTR firsthand testing may allow me to parse different results from Recount data, thus there is a chance that I suddenly realize I missed something in the model and adjust it.
But math models, by definitions, are based upon the formula we're given to work with the class. If they are correct, and I didn't miss changes, the model should be as close to reality as possible. Of course, there is lag and human reaction time to factor when you effectively do it, as well as every unpredictable or situation change that may happen in raids. These are the limits of theory.

Sounds good. I'm just trying to figure how Ferocious Bite fits into this, and how having the excess combo points from a doubly-long Rip, allowing us to bite more, wouldn't be another dps increase.

[arel00]

Sounds good. I'm just trying to figure how Ferocious Bite fits into this, and how having the excess combo points from a doubly-long Rip, allowing us to bite more, wouldn't be another dps increase.

Allowing us to Bite more IS a dps increase. I just didn't have the time to factor Bite in the model.

[Elunedra]

Legit question. It actually keeps ticking at the same damage, thus increasing its duration is a direct increase in the total damage. Given that Rip ticks every 2 seconds (unlike Rake, which ticks every 3) we get 6 ticks out of its original 12sec uptime. If you extend it all the way to 26sec, you get a 14sec increase, which converts into 7 more ticks at the original damage. It's a net 216% damage increase.
By the way, Rip, with these changes, configures as 13 ticks capable of critting, with all the damage buffed by 36% by the new (glyphed) SR. If you average out the crit chance and translate it into damage, you get an average damage from Rip of something like... 35-40k damage. Pretty good for 30 energy, isn't it?

a problem i got on live atm is i get this "there is a more powerfull buff on the target already" whit my rip. while it has like 3 - 4 secs left so ui basicly wait whit my 5 CP and yes waste a few CP so i can put up a new rip

now ofc wasting cps is never good but whit 4 - 5 secs i can burn my CP since i wont be able to build it up in time.

i think if we get a 26 sec we gona thsi even more.

the main reason i get thosem essages is becase i got a proc based gear whit DMC: greats / mirror of truth / mongooze / the +64 agi idol and such :P

but 45 - 40K damage over time is quite

[arel00]

Look it from the opposite side Elunedra: if you have that much time left on Rip, you can safely use Bite and build combo points again.
Besides enormously increasing its damage and DPE values, such a long duration allows us to adjust our rotation around it.

[arel00]

News: I've logged onto the PTR for some testing. I have a proper dps spec but I still need to fix the glyphs, which I'll hopefully do soon. So far with Rip+Mangle glyphs, it's 3500dps self buffed on a test session against the boss dummy. Not bad at all.

[Furo]

So, how much do your bleeds tick for? Can't recall the actual % bonus of melee crits atm.

[khanthal]

News: I've logged onto the PTR for some testing. I have a proper dps spec but I still need to fix the glyphs, which I'll hopefully do soon. So far with Rip+Mangle glyphs, it's 3500dps self buffed on a test session against the boss dummy. Not bad at all.

For comparison what do you do on live?

[arel00]

Just tested on Live: with the same gear and as close a spec as possible (that is, without the new Imp.MotW and PG) the result is 2800dps.

At first look it would seem a 25% dps increase. This is also considering that on the PTR Mangle is currently bugged and doesn't award CPs correctly. Sometime you get CPs, sometimes not, so the PTR dps will be higher when they fix it.

It would seem, for now, a stronger increase in DPS that I expected from the modelling. I would have assumed a 19-20% increase by the SR change and PG alone, without the new glyphs. This may be cause by the factoring of Bite, also.
Anyway, I'll have more data when they fix Mangle and I can add the glyphs. I'm getting used to the rotation again too, since I'm tanking 99% of the time :P

Furo: melee crit bonus is 100%, for a 200% damage total. If you're cat specced and have Predatory Instincts, your crits are 220% of the normal damage. My bleedings on the PTR tick for 3,3-3,8k, depending on which bleeding, on procs and so on. When I can collect more data, I'll post more details.

[khanthal]

Have they said if our 2% stats will stack with Kings? I wondering....

Also your test spec with 3/5 furor and no survival instincts makes me sad panda And there are points in the bite talent. Bite points are usually the best way to spot a feral that doesn't know how to play.

[Bergenia]

Also your test spec with 3/5 furor and no survival instincts makes me sad panda And there are points in the bite talent. Bite points are usually the best way to spot a feral that doesn't know how to play.

3/5 Furor is all that's needed for a dps spec. And Survival Instincts? Really? Doesn't belong in a cat spec at all.

I will agree on the points in Feral Aggression though, if you can't max it they might as well be put elsewhere. I'd go with Nurturing Instinct for more survivability.

[arel00]

Have they said if our 2% stats will stack with Kings? I wondering....

Also your test spec with 3/5 furor and no survival instincts makes me sad panda And there are points in the bite talent. Bite points are usually the best way to spot a feral that doesn't know how to play.

First: 2% stats is a PASSIVE bonus that YOU get. Not a side-effect of buffing MotW. Thus it does stack, it has nothing to do with Kings. Take it like an extra point in SotF.

Second: I used a test spec. Keyword: TEST. I needed a pure damage oriented spec for testing purposes, and as things seem now Bite draws as far more frequent with 3.1 changes due to the new 26sec Rip duration. As soon as they fix Mangle so I have a reliable CP generation while refreshing the debuff, I'll post more results.

I would like to make the point perfectly clear: this thread is about 3.1 changes and the consequential increase in DPS. If you want to pointlessly argue about L2P issues, about your dream spec, or about your own raid PoV, get the f*** out of here and make a new thread.

[Bergenia]

For those on the PTR I'd love to see some tests with 5/5 Feral Aggression & 2/2 Master Shapeshifter, vs. a spec with 5/5 Feral Aggression but no MS.

Interested to see how much of our damage Ferocius Bite will be now that we have everlasting Rip, and if MS increases dps enough to be worth 5 points.

[acuteangina]

For those on the PTR I'd love to see some tests with 5/5 Feral Aggression & 2/2 Master Shapeshifter, vs. a build with 5/5 Feral Aggression but no MS.

Interested to see how much of our damage Ferocius Bite will be now that we have everlasting Rip, and if MS increases dps enough to be worth 5 points.

I don't think it's everlasting rip. It's basically the same as the t7 bonus + rip glyph adding 6 seconds.