anzul mount

[Gigajot]

does the anzul mount still drop? ive ran it several times and never seen it drop. ive been farming it for about 3 months

Yes it does, it has a very low droprate tho

[Leafre]

Of course it drops. I got him, alongside with Rivendare's and Midnight's mount ^^

[superstargoddess]

Of course it drops. I got him, alongside with Rivendare's and Midnight's mount ^^

Yeah, screw Anzu, I want Midnight!

[Balduvian]

It's ~1% drop chance.

1.2% to be exact, which is actually 0.2% more then the Deathcharger from Baron, and ALOT better looking.

[Deleted]

Im at run no. 95 - until it drops, i will assume its a myth! :P

[Kujako]

I keep soloing the place most days looking for the battle chicken.

[Balduvian]

Im at run no. 95 - until it drops, i will assume its a myth! :P

Done no. 24 today, I'm VERY sure I won't ever get to 95 runs, wether it drops or not. Doing it every day already drives me crazy. :-X

[Eilt]

I got my Anzu after wotlk, probably my 3rd run at 80, although I ran it many times at 70 with no luck, so just keep farming, you will get it eventually!

[Kujako]

I got my Anzu after wotlk, probably my 3rd run at 80, although I ran it many times at 70 with no luck, so just keep farming, you will get it eventually!

Actually... there is a fair chance that you wont get it no matter how long you try.

[Sunshine]

Actually... there is a fair chance that you wont get it no matter how long you try.

There is "a" chance that you could never ever get it, but it's very small.

If you want to use 1.2% drop chance, then your chance of not seeing a drop in...

1 run = 98.8%
5 runs = 94.1%
10 runs = 88.6%
30 runs = 69.6%
100 runs = 29.9%
200 runs = 8.9%
365 runs = 1.2%

So after a year... you're likely to have seen it drop. It will happen, just as much as someone might get one their first run, but neither is a huge chance.

If you're still that unlucky, run it for another year (730 runs total), and there's only a 0.01% chance that you won't see it. Of course, who knows what the state of the game will be by that point...

[Campagnolo]

There is "a" chance that you could never ever get it, but it's very small.

If you want to use 1.2% drop chance, then your chance of not seeing a drop in...

1 run = 98.8%
5 runs = 94.1%
10 runs = 88.6%
30 runs = 69.6%
100 runs = 29.9%
200 runs = 8.9%
365 runs = 1.2%

So after a year... you're likely to have seen it drop. It will happen, just as much as someone might get one their first run, but neither is a huge chance.

If you're still that unlucky, run it for another year (730 runs total), and there's only a 0.01% chance that you won't see it. Of course, who knows what the state of the game will be by that point...

It seems odd to breakdown "chance" like this.

Heres a better example of the chances you have to not see this mount.

1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%
1 run = 98.8%

You will always have a 98.8% chance to not see this mount on every run.

[Sunshine]

It seems odd to breakdown "chance" like this.

You don't see what I'm doing in the calculations, then.

There's a 98.8% chance of not seeing the mount. That means, in two runs, the probability of not seeing it either time is 0.988 * 0.988 = 0.988^2 = 0.976. 97.6%.

It makes sense intuitively: Running something 100 times and not seeing a drop is inherently less likely than running it once and not seeing the thing drop; the number of people who have run it 100 times with 0 drops is less than the number of people who have run it 1 time without a drop.

If you run it multiple times, your chance *per run* of not seeing the mount drop is equal each run (98.8%). However, taken as a whole, the chance you don't see it at all in N runs is 0.988^N.

[Auchinfail]

Featherduster is a featherduster.

[Nah]

I spotted this a little bit ago.

[06:04:06 PM] [Grillotine] has earned the achievement [Reins of the Raven Lord]!

I was amused that I happened to be standing in Dalaran.

[Campagnolo]

You don't see what I'm doing in the calculations, then.

There's a 98.8% chance of not seeing the mount. That means, in two runs, the probability of not seeing it either time is 0.988 * 0.988 = 0.988^2 = 0.976. 97.6%.

It makes sense intuitively: Running something 100 times and not seeing a drop is inherently less likely than running it once and not seeing the thing drop; the number of people who have run it 100 times with 0 drops is less than the number of people who have run it 1 time without a drop.

If you run it multiple times, your chance *per run* of not seeing the mount drop is equal each run (98.8%). However, taken as a whole, the chance you don't see it at all in N runs is 0.988^N.

lets say your only able to run this 100 times before you can never run it again.. and blizz makes it so in any one of those runs your going to get the mount.. so you know for a fact you have 1 in 100 odds to get the mount. If this were the case.. then youd be able to use your calculations. because the more you run it with no drops will increase your chance to get it on the next run.

In reality. it doesnt matter how often you run it. you will never have higher that a 1.2% for it to drop. You're only creating an illusion of greater odds with your math. Even if you have run in 1000 times, on your next run, you will still only have a 1.2% chance to get it.

Not trying to knock your math skills or anything, just saying its all pointless.

1.2% is 1.2%

[ElAmigo]

Also heard if u sacrifice a virgin and do a pow-wow dance u might see it drop....
unfortunatly this does not appear to work in ZG since it's been 2 years of doing that crap....

ahaha, so much win

[Suikiele]

You don't see what I'm doing in the calculations, then.

There's a 98.8% chance of not seeing the mount. That means, in two runs, the probability of not seeing it either time is 0.988 * 0.988 = 0.988^2 = 0.976. 97.6%.

It makes sense intuitively: Running something 100 times and not seeing a drop is inherently less likely than running it once and not seeing the thing drop; the number of people who have run it 100 times with 0 drops is less than the number of people who have run it 1 time without a drop.

If you run it multiple times, your chance *per run* of not seeing the mount drop is equal each run (98.8%). However, taken as a whole, the chance you don't see it at all in N runs is 0.988^N.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The only thing you have factored in correctly is that you have to actually run the instance to have it drop, since the chances for it to appear in your mailbox are 0%. However, the drop rate remains exactly the same, as does the likelihood of seeing it. NOTHING changes this.

[Dantia.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The only thing you have factored in correctly is that you have to actually run the instance to have it drop, since the chances for it to appear in your mailbox are 0%. However, the drop rate remains exactly the same, as does the likelihood of seeing it. NOTHING changes this.

The drop rate remains the same for each run, but the more runs you do the higher your chances of getting it. Common sense is common sense.

Enough trying to be a smartass please...

[Joarrak]

You don't see what I'm doing in the calculations, then.

There's a 98.8% chance of not seeing the mount. That means, in two runs, the probability of not seeing it either time is 0.988 * 0.988 = 0.988^2 = 0.976. 97.6%.

It makes sense intuitively: Running something 100 times and not seeing a drop is inherently less likely than running it once and not seeing the thing drop; the number of people who have run it 100 times with 0 drops is less than the number of people who have run it 1 time without a drop.

If you run it multiple times, your chance *per run* of not seeing the mount drop is equal each run (98.8%). However, taken as a whole, the chance you don't see it at all in N runs is 0.988^N.

I love that I learned how to calculate that in AP stat so I wouldn't be a noob like the person above you .

To the person who I just called a noob, the probability of each individual trial is obviously the same, 1.2% chance to drop, 98.8 to not, and due to other factors this is a binomial distribution. Basically you are multiplying the probabilities of each event by each other to find out the probability that they will both occur since they are independant of each other. Therefore, when you run it once, there is a .988 chance to see it drop. The second time you run it there is also a .988 chance to see it drop. Therefore, the probability that it will drop neither time is .988*.988 = .976. He is not saying that the drop rate changes over time, just that the probability of never seeing it drop goes down over time, since clearly you are more likely to see it drop if you run it 100 times rather than 50.

[BlogThatWorld]

Acquired this beast today on my Druid. Very very happy with it, took around 60+ runs, and now I owe my brother one xD