anzul mount

[Deleted]

Out of 1 mount run you have 1.2 percent chance of leaving with a mount.
Out of 375 mount runs you have a 98.7 percent chance of leaving with a mount.

No .. you don't. You just want to think like that , which is fine. People don't like to alter their method of thinking which is completely fine. You can say this untill Pappie finally gets his bus but you'd still be wrong. The argument that person who goes on their 366th run has a higher chance of getting the mount then the person who is on their 2nd run is still the exact same. Even if you take into account the person who has run 365runs should have a higher chance of getting the mount over the course the fact is he doesn't have a higher chance of getting that mount. You are agree'ing with me why can you not see that ? Making statements like the one I've quoted are technically correct but in relation to wow it's completely wrong. I clearly see the point you are trying to make it's just NOT valid.

[Puri]

Even if you take into account the person who has run 365runs should have a higher chance of getting the mount over the course the fact is he doesn't have a higher chance of getting that mount.

No! You don't understand. NO ONE here claims that you have a higher chance on your 365th run than on your first. Its always 1,2%. BUT if you do 365 runs, the chances that the mount will drop in one of those 365 runs (it may be the first, it may be the 33rd, it may be te 365th) at least once is ~99%. So if you really did 365 runs, and the mount didn't drop, you're quite unlucky. In fact, the chances that the mount WILL NOT drop in 365 attempts is lower than the chance the mount WILL drop in one attempt!

[Drakuru]

No .. you don't. You just want to think like that , which is fine. People don't like to alter their method of thinking which is completely fine. You can say this untill Pappie finally gets his bus but you'd still be wrong. The argument that person who goes on their 366th run has a higher chance of getting the mount then the person who is on their 2nd run is still the exact same. Even if you take into account the person who has run 365runs should have a higher chance of getting the mount over the course the fact is he doesn't have a higher chance of getting that mount. You are agree'ing with me why can you not see that ? Making statements like the one I've quoted are technically correct but in relation to wow it's completely wrong. I clearly see the point you are trying to make it's just NOT valid.

Guyssss, you should play less WoW and go to some math lessons.
First he didn't say you got a higher chance to get a mount on the 366th run. He said if you run the instance 366 times, you have a 9x,x% chance to have it. See it like the following thing:
You run a instance 366 times. Don't view the loot. After you have ran the instance for 366 times you look at what you have looted. Then there is a 9x,x% chance to have atleast 1 mount in your loot.
If you want the proof to the formule go read wikipedia or your math books or whatever and stfu up. To many people think they rock at maths but they don't. Please try to understand it, it's proven alot of times in mathematics.
It's very easy, you won't ever have a 100% chance to get it if you use a power function.

[Deleted]

This thread is going no where fast.

Poldara I suggest you goto google and search on probability you will learn something as your argument is wrong. Probability of each event never changes regardless of how many times you do the event, the cumulative probability of it happening at least once in N events does change the higher N goes. You just don't seem to get the concept of cumulative probabilities regardless of how often people mention it.

Locking thread.