Amish population growing even faster than thought

[Kokolums]

The fastest growing demographic of the US population are the Amish. Amish families are the largest in the 50 states, and the culture retains many of its members. The growth rate was thought to be exponential, doubling every 20 years. New census data from 2010 reveals that the Amish population is actually doubling every 14 years, give the 10% growth from 2008 (227k) to 2010 (249k).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish

Given their new current rate of growth, here are the projections for the number of Amish living in the US in the future:

250k 2010
500k 2024
1m 2038
2m 2052
4m 2066
8m 2080
16m 2094
32m 2108
64m 2122
128m 2136
256m 2150

Future estimates of total US population are iffy, with a range somewhere between 280m (given a increasingly negative birth for developed nations) to 1 billion by 2100.
http://www.mnforsustain.org/united_s...owth_graph.htm

If we take the average growth and estimate 600m Americans in 2100, about which time 20m will be Amish, or 3% of the population. The total population will be around 800m in 2150, at which point 256m will be Amish.

If American birth rates fall like a typical developed nation, and it stands at 280m in 2100, Amish will comprise 7.5% of the total population. The startling thing is what happens between 2100 and 2150. Amish would go from 7.5% to almost matching the entire population, and the US becomes an Amish nation.

Certain regions of the country will probably go all-Amish first. Ohio has the largest population of Amish of any state in the union, so they would probably go Amish much sooner. Ohio has 11m total residents, 67,000 of which are Amish. That would reach 1m Amish residents by 2066, or 10% of the total current population. By 2100, there will be 10m Amish in Ohio. Pennsylvania, Indiana, and New York, with their large Amish communities, will likely also undergo a transformation in the 21st century to an Amish-dominated region.

The bottom line is, unless non-Amish Americans start having lots and lots of babies, in 150 years, America will be Amish.

[Bauwagast]

There's a similar study for Europe where Muslims will take over...

Personally I wouldn't worry too much :P.

[Deleted]

Tinfoil hat; On! Check!

There are other statistics to play with that are far more realistic and frightening. But as all statistics that "predict" the future, it doesn't take into account a lot of variables, most of which are just ridiculous to not count on.
In other words, I don't think the Amish will rule America.

[Vongimi]

Taking small sample sizes and assuming they will stay at the same rate of growth for hundreds of years is not a very good arguement. Its that same crap that makes people believe the world is going to heat up and we are all gonna die.

The Muslim arguement is a little different though, its more of the cultural differences between the massive Muslim immigration and their extreme hostility towards the local people, and the fact that Europeans have very little children.

[Kokolums]

Tinfoil hat; On! Check!

There are other statistics to play with that are far more realistic and frightening. But as all statistics that "predict" the future, it doesn't take into account a lot of variables, most of which are just ridiculous to not count on.
In other words, I don't think the Amish will rule America.

What's interesting is that previous estimates have all LOWBALLED Amish population growth. The 2010 census has revealed its growth is much higher than conventional wisdom thought. There's nothing in the data that gives anyone a reason to add doubt to the notion that Amish will become the dominant culture in the US.

---------- Post added 2011-02-27 at 04:39 AM ----------

Taking small sample sizes and assuming they will stay at the same rate of growth for hundreds of years is not a very good arguement. Its that same crap that makes people believe the world is going to heat up and we are all gonna die.

These aren't small sample sizes. They can look back in time and see the Amish community has been growing exponentially for the past 100+ years. There were only 500 amish TOTAL in the US in the 1900 census!

http://books.google.com/books?id=OYN...201900&f=false

---------- Post added 2011-02-27 at 04:44 AM ----------

Amish growth in history:

1900: 4800
1910: 8550
1920: 12,450
1930: 16,500
1940: 23,100
1950: 30,300
1960: 40,350
1970: 55,050
1980: 85,350
1990: 134,700
2000: 198,000
2010: 250k

---------- Post added 2011-02-27 at 04:53 AM ----------

The Amish population grew from 5000 to 250k from 1900-2010. If the total US population grew at the same rate, it would have gone from 76m to 910m, but it stands at 308m. The Amish population is also doing this with ZERO immigration (there are no Amish countries to come from). They simply have enormous families.

[ishootblanks]

oh snap! more high quality furniture at reasonable prices!

oh and the best part is: MADE IN AMERICA

[Defengar]

MY GOD! we will be overrun.......
LET THE CULLING BEGIN!
.......
.........
/jk

[Powerogue]

I totally expected this o_O

no idea why, but at some point, for some reason I said "...and the next major counterculture in the US will probably be the amish"

I think it was during some rambling prediction about us making more and more unneccesary sub-inventions trying to make life more easy by making it more complicated.

[psdew1813]

oh noes! well have to deal with slow buggies and a surge of quality furniture ware! the horror!

[ishootblanks]

oh well.. I suppose it's better to have your nation overrun by people who keep to themselves and just don't like technology than have it overrun by people who will riot and burn half your country over a cartoon...

[psdew1813]

oh well.. I suppose it's better to have your nation overrun by people who keep to themselves and just don't like technology than have it overrun by people who will riot and burn half your country over a cartoon...

u really have no idea how ignorant you sound its mind boggling really

[Beress]

Is this people who are being BORN Amish, or does it include people who convert as well (if such a thing is permissible).

People make fun of their low tech ways now, but once everything has collapsed and technology fails us, these guys will have a real leg up!

[Whatyourethinking]

The bottom line is, unless non-Amish Americans start having lots and lots of babies, in 150 years, America will be Amish.

I would rather have this than what Mike Judge predicts in Idiocracy.

[Herecius]

That's like saying that because I found a 5 dollar bill in my pocket today, I will therefor find a 5 dollar bill in my pocket every day for the rest of my life.

[openair]

The bottom line is, unless non-Amish Americans start having lots and lots of babies, in 150 years, America will be Amish.

The idea that "non-Amish Americans start having lots and lots of babies" is the key to preventing the Amish assimilation of American is laughable.

Its unlikely the current population growth of such a small number of people will hold once they become less of a minority. At least some of that growth comes from Amish who were simply missed during previous estimates, and non Amish converting. Now once the current Amish population is less of a minority conversion rates will either slow down, or increase. If conversion increases, increasing non-Amish birth rates will not accomplish much in the long run. If conversion rates decrease, maintaining a birth rate of 100% every 14 years would require every Amish female to give birth to 2 children before age 14.

Also 1 billion Americans (or approx 4 times the current US pop) would require even larger cities and urban development, and result in a America with a population density similar to china. I highly doubt a country like china could function for long with horse drawn carriages as the only source of transportation.

Also, while 250,000 is not a small sample in itself, you're talking about estimates of a minority inside a population of 300 million. Or less then 1%.

[Saviourself]

There's a similar study for Europe where Muslims will take over...

Personally I wouldn't worry too much :P.

That sounds like a lot of reasons to worry, friend

[Pontificate]

I almost hope this happens. The Amish are a lot more in harmony with nature than most of us.

You don't see them destroying rainforests and spewing oil all over the planet.

[Kokolums]

Is this people who are being BORN Amish, or does it include people who convert as well (if such a thing is permissible).

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/...n6723886.shtml

The remarkable growth is almost entirely due to the Amish birth rate - many Amish families have five or more children. Kraybill said the Amish retain about 85 percent of the young adults who have to decide whether to remain in the church. The Amish marry within the community, and the total number of converts nationwide is believed to be less than 100, he said.

[Saviourself]

I almost hope this happens. The Amish are a lot more in harmony with nature than most of us.

You don't see them destroying rainforests and spewing oil all over the planet.

That's because they're too busy toiling in the dirt farms with their mules farming dirt.

[Kokolums]

Also 1 billion Americans (or approx 4 times the current US pop) would require even larger cities and urban development, and result in a America with a population density similar to china.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...lation_density

The population density of the United States is very low compared to other developed countries because of its large geographical size. For example, the population density of the U.S. is one seventh that of Germany, and one fifteenth that of South Korea (as of 2010).[1]

About half of the population of Alaska lives in the Anchorage metropolitan area. Most of Alaska is largely unpopulated, and it is the largest state by far.