538 charts show Obama's re-elect prospects very dim

[Purple Glow]

An excellent article here

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-the-election/

At 538, coupled with some economic knowledge the blog editor does not possess, sheds much light on how dim the prospects are for Obama to be re-elected.

First two charts from the article. The first plots the results of two polls for every year since 1974. One axis is the president's approval rating. The other axis is the percentage of people satisfied with the direction of the country. Obama's first 3 years are plotted with red dots.



Sometimes the president's approval rating is much higher then the percent that are satisfied with the direction of the country. Sometimes it lower. Sometimes its spot on. Obama has been well above. But the second chart is where it gets interesting. It only picks years from 1976 on where there was a presidential election.



The chart tightens up considerably. In fact, its almost dead on target. What does this tell us? One thing it tells us is that voters hold a president a lot more accountable for the direction of the country in the year they are voting for president, as compared to the other 3 years where they may give him a lot of slack. So for Obama in 2012, his approval rating will gravitate towards equilibrium with the percentage of voters who are satisfied with the direction of the country.

As of this posting, only 39% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country. As you can see on the second chart, the 3 points below 40% all were years where the White House changed hands from one party to the other. 1980, 1992, and 2008.

If the economy strongly rebounds in 2012, and American satisfaction with the direction of the country greatly improves, Obama will be in great shape. Will it happen? The 538 blog is not an expert on economics, so an answer to that question won't be found there. But we can look at Goldman Sachs' recent report on oil for guidance. They recently finished a study on oil markets and concluded that the NATO airstrikes and civil war in Libya will cause serious disruption in oil supplies and they call for $140 oil by the end of 2012. I trust their judgement, and given that bad news, I think the satisfaction number will fall from current levels. Voters will begin to take a more critical eye to Obama as they do for all presidents in election years, and he will not win a second term in 2012.

http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...40-oil-in-2012

[Noomz]

And all these numbers of "percentage of americans" is based on much smaller tests with only several thousands used as a reference.
As far as I know that's usually how they're done, and shouldn't usually be listened to because depending on who does the surveys the results will vary.


"Not another Bush" is what the rest of the world thinks about the elections.

[Rukh]

uh who is going to beat him?

[Purple Glow]

uh who is going to beat him?

They asked that about Bush41 in 1991 too. Most of the big names dropped out, and a rather unknown Bill Clinton took a chance.

[Rukh]

Bill clinton wasn't exactly unknown, being a governor and all. At least as prominent as Pawlenty.

[Purple Glow]

Bill clinton wasn't exactly unknown, being a governor and all. At least as prominent as Pawlenty.

I doubt there are very few who can even name all 50 governors. If you walked down the street today asking people who is the current governor of Arkansas, not many would be able to tell you.

[Rukh]

If they're running for pres they're usually pretty covered. I think it is interesting that "hopefully a wild candidate appears" is the best hope for republicans though. :P

[Willeonge]

Its only June 2011 -_-

[Asrialol]

More presidents like Lincoln, Roosevelt etc!

[conscript]

Unless the Republicans can get united behind a candidate and said candidate doesn't put an absolutely terrible selection in the VP spot like last election, Obama could lose. Obama will have an unprecedented amount of campaign money again this time and the majority of the Republican candidates are either awful or will have a hard time uniting all the Republican factions.

---------- Post added 2011-06-18 at 01:48 PM ----------

I doubt there are very few who can even name all 50 governors. If you walked down the street today asking people who is the current governor of Arkansas, not many would be able to tell you.

90% of Americans likely don't even know who their own governor is. I love when people do street interviews and ask people about politics. They don't know the VP, they don't know the Speaker, they don't know their own senators or representatives. People are idiots.

[kunah]

Implying that everyone that has to do with politics isn't a bunch of money hungry self-serving tools for someone else. Oh you, they're all blood sucking creatures in the end!

True. There will be a dem version of the day after a Dem is sworm in as well.
Same craptrp in reverse.

[Merendel]

"Not another Bush" is what the rest of the world thinks about the elections.

And the rest of of the worlds thoughts on the matter mean less than the turd I flushed this morning. They dont get a vote. Bad as bush was all obama's apologizing has not improved our image with the world and he couldn't have done more damage to our economy with his policies if he'd tried. I dont want another bush but I'd elect Paris Hilton before I'd vote for obama.

[Sanctioned]

The numbers in this article can't be accepted at all. I mean, there needs to be A LOT more people in the study for research.

[Swizzle]

And the rest of of the worlds thoughts on the matter mean less than the turd I flushed this morning. They dont get a vote. Bad as bush was all obama's apologizing has not improved our image with the world and he couldn't have done more damage to our economy with his policies if he'd tried. I dont want another bush but I'd elect Paris Hilton before I'd vote for obama.

If that's the case, can you please not vote?

[Rufcat]

Mitt Romney is the current leader for the Republican nomination, and that tool is going to beat Obama? I sincerely hope not.

[Catta]

Electing a Republican will just isolate the US from the rest of the western world even further...

Lets hope for another democrat - or the Governator

[Blastit]

Atleast Bush kept 1 or 2 promises. Obama - Close Gitmo NOPE, End war - NOPE new conflict, Fix Deficit - NOPE, Universal Healthcare - NOT EVEN. He had majority to pass things democrats wanted and he used it to push his GLORIOUS HEALTHCARE

[Venziir]

Atleast Bush kept 1 or 2 promises. Obama - Close Gitmo NOPE, End war - NOPE new conflict, Fix Deficit - NOPE, Universal Healthcare - NOT EVEN. He had majority to pass things democrats wanted and he used it to push his GLORIOUS HEALTHCARE

Well he has been a bit busy trying to get you guys out of the massive shithole that Bush placed you in. Takes time to climb out of a massive dungpile.
... Oh and a word from Europe (No we aren't commies) the healthcare system works...

[rkma]

Wow, I didn't know it was possible to make long-term predictions of complex systems using simple linear regression. Let me get on the phone with the weather service and let them know of this amazing new technique.

[Flaks]

I think if and when Obama gets re-elected for his second term he'll finally grow a spine and not give two shits about what the Republicans have to say and start pushing policies. I feel as though he's been bending over backwards this entire term to ensure that he'd get his second one.