Actually, it's lowballing the retention rate in the extreme.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/c...rs_2_from_the/
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...hinese-website
By assuming that it's the same people logging in everyday (5-7 days a week) you can get the account number down to around 350k-500k. Again, that's essentially assuming that only a fraction of the players who bought the game still play and that they play daily. Which would conflict with the characterization of GW2 players being ultra casuals who log in once or twice a month. The more casual you assume the player base to be, the higher the retention rate would have to be in order to account for the server traffic. If you assume that the majority of weekly log ins are by different people playing a little bit (read: casuals) then you get an absurd retention rate like 80%. The other way you could get a reasonable retention rate would be to assume that they've sold far more then their initial 3 million and simply haven't announced any milestones like 5 million copies (which is doubtful).
I tend to be pretty skeptical of any MMO being over 500k regular players but in the case of GW2 it might be considerably higher.
Last edited by Bardarian; 2013-08-31 at 10:59 PM.
(Warframe) - Dragon & Typhoon-
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Look at the links above. Assuming that the retention rate is around 80% you end up with about an hour and a half a week or something. Since that retention rate is silly and practically impossible, the real amount of hours a week per player is probably much higher. If you assume that it's 500k players a week (low end figure) you get 49 hours a week... Which is way too high.
Again, points to the number of unique players in GW2 being higher than 500k a week.
(Warframe) - Dragon & Typhoon-
(Neverwinter) - Trickster Rogue & Guardian Fighter -
the figures are from the first 4 months of release.. so in other words useless.
The truth, but that's unreasonable to expect. It's just hilarious that they get called out with a game under their same publishing company, slip up and basically bash the game, then have to damage control to save face. While I still love this game, I can tell their devs are awfully two faced and not honest. Pretty much par for the course in this genre.
We all know at this point that subscriptions to justify content updates is a fallacy/myth used by greedy companies who often don't follow through. Could W* be different? Sure....but we have no reason to believe it will be. Even Blizzard, who I have loved for decades, hadn't been following through on that for years until Mists. There's no way I'm going to trust a relative unknown group of devs made up of former Blizz employees.
But case in point, GW2 delivers a 2-4 week content cycle that blows everything else out of the water at this point. People can criticize it all they want, but it's an ideal system. W* did state they have similar goals in this panel, but I'll believe it when I see it. So far it seems like subscription games just make money disappear into the ether.
There won't be an open beta in the traditional sense, just a beta where people are free to post videos and talk about the game. Basically a non NDA closed beta. A game like this, with a subscription and a box cost, will not have an 'anyone can play' open beta. Just not going to happen.
Even FFXIV's 'open beta' lasted 2 days.
They want a lot of mystery and impulse purchases to make them some dollar dollar bills.
BAD WOLF
Quick reminder: This is the WildStar thread, so keep discussion on that game and not others. <3
Well, somebody thinks highly of their opinion.
FixedWe all know at this point that subscriptions to justify content updates can sometimes be a fallacy/myth used by greedy companies who often don't follow through.
Which is why we should condemn them until further notice right?Could W* be different? Sure....but we have no reason to believe it will be.
Even Blizzard, who I have loved for decades, hadn't been following through on that for years until Mists. There's no way I'm going to trust a relative unknown group of devs made up of former Blizz employees.
So, anyone aware of Wildstar closed beta schedules?
Someone from Wildstar responded to an "Open beta?" question with "Soon":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...k--ndgXM#t=143
Although granted he may have meant a non NDA beta rather than an open to all who sign up beta. However Carbine are giving 3 one week trial codes at launch to people who buy the game so they do appear to have a certain level of flexibility in allowing players to try-for-free immediately. So perhaps an open beta isn't completely out of the question.
Let me welcome you to these forums with open arms!
You didn't 'fix' anything. It's literally mathematically not true that subscriptions are required to produce content. End of story. Guild Wars 2 does it. Other games do it. It is a fact and irrefutable. Unless your argument is 'with Wildstar's design budget they need subscriptions', which is just another thing wrong with how they operate as that means they can't manage a project budget efficiently, then you have nothing valid to say on the matter.
I wouldn't know if you were making that case in any event, because in your rush to be snarky you forgot to actually have a conversation. Feel free to elaborate on how you will to argue with facts though, it would be an entertaining read.
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The last time someone openly talked about it, it wasn't a 'true' open beta. I wish I had a link, but this thread has gotten rather convoluted in the last weeks. I would be really, really shocked if a box cost game with a subscription lets a large amount of people play more than 5 minutes before the game launches.
Unless it was open beta without rollbacks, like FFXIV just did. I could see that, as it would basically be getting people to commit before they pay for it. It also means they would have to have a lot of end game content ready to go at launch or else it will backfire.
We'll see. An open beta with no rollbacks would be amazing.
Last edited by Kelimbror; 2013-09-01 at 03:03 PM.
BAD WOLF
I just started up the beta again and saw that Beta3 has ended. I hope they improve the game for beta4 in a major way. Was definitly not impressed with the game in beta3.
You were not alone in that.
Pretty sure our feedback is why they decided to push back their launch date. I too am hoping for some pretty significant changes in ctb4.
Still can't get over the idea that they want a subscription fee for this... But, who knows. Maybe in half a year or more it will be ready for that.
(Warframe) - Dragon & Typhoon-
(Neverwinter) - Trickster Rogue & Guardian Fighter -