[BM] Hit and Exp: why you don't have to cap them

[The Madgod]

I am, of course, first and foremost a Tank. If utility is what the fight calls for - I'll do what's needed.

Exactly. Let the DPS focus on DPS, and only focus on getting your damage dealt up if you and your healers are comfortable with your damage intake. Hence, why it's a "side project".

Whether it's more or less important (even relative to other things, like healing utility via your lvl 30 talents) in 10 and 25 man raiding instances is an entirely different can of worms, in my opinion. In 10 mans, sure, it's more valuable, relatively speaking, however it is still second banana to personal survivability.

[squid]

I think its an interesting perspective, but even ignoring things like Gift of the Ox procs, threat generation, and utility like Statue Guards, and Leg Sweeps on trash, I still personally think reliability trumps long term statistics in the case of tanking. I am also the kind of person that hates when an important attack does not go off haha.

There is a couple things in this threat (ignoring aggression) that i do want to point out though. Shouldn't missing a Smash and replacing with a Jab be a net loss of 8 energy, 1 chi, and TWO global cooldowns since you wouldnt have needed that Jab GCD to compensate?

Wouldn't missing a Keg Smash on a trash pack be more significant because the only other things to gain stable threat in AoE be Spinning Crane and Breath of Fire? Neither very good in that situation...and the "High Threat" from Keg Toss doesn't stick once DPS start hitting.

The full benefit or Chi Wave rolls on miss four times for each hostile hit since heals cant miss, but thats still to do with your healing done.

I'm not going to refute your math and statistics for total course of a fight I just think there are a lot of little nuances like DPS for Statue Guards, fight timers, Snap threat on adds, crucial global cooldowns, etc that are negligible on their own but add up to be too many issues for the technical gain by gearing this way. It's also worth pointing out that total mitigation over the course of the fight isn't as important to your healers as short frame mitigation. If your incoming damage is smooth and consistant its still better than if you mitigated more total damage for the fight. Better for their mana bars, better for their reaction time, better for their sanity.

Just my opinions of course.

[Totaltotemic]

snip

Missing a Smash and replacing it with a Jab results in a "loss" of one global cooldown because you would have spent that GCD on KS anyways even if it hit. The extra Jab needed is the loss.

[Kisho]

Honestly this is one area where I'll say screw the math, doing what I'm personally happy with.

I HATE being missed/dodged/parried. Really bugs me. So if I could, I'd go expertise hard cap without a second's hesitation. But that would make me lose far too much haste, so I don't. The 7.5% caps are good enough for me.

That said, I understand that I've been one of the ones throwing around the 'gogo 7.5% caps!' misinformation, for which I apologise. After reading the comments from those far more intelligent than I, I agree that the caps aren't generally needed so won't keep spouting that.

But I'll keep the caps, for personal preference reasons and nothing else. xD (also extra deeps on Garalon is always welcome! :P)

[Deleted]

"1% chance" for bad rng, or bad eng happening on average every 45 mins, whatever the math, I don't see how with all those math brains you don't understand this increased RNG is BAD in a raid environment.

[Chuupag]

I think its an interesting perspective, but even ignoring things like Gift of the Ox procs, threat generation, and utility like Statue Guards, and Leg Sweeps on trash, I still personally think reliability trumps long term statistics in the case of tanking. I am also the kind of person that hates when an important attack does not go off haha.

There is a couple things in this threat (ignoring aggression) that i do want to point out though. Shouldn't missing a Smash and replacing with a Jab be a net loss of 8 energy, 1 chi, and TWO global cooldowns since you wouldnt have needed that Jab GCD to compensate?

Wouldn't missing a Keg Smash on a trash pack be more significant because the only other things to gain stable threat in AoE be Spinning Crane and Breath of Fire? Neither very good in that situation...and the "High Threat" from Keg Toss doesn't stick once DPS start hitting.

The full benefit or Chi Wave rolls on miss four times for each hostile hit since heals cant miss, but thats still to do with your healing done.

I'm not going to refute your math and statistics for total course of a fight I just think there are a lot of little nuances like DPS for Statue Guards, fight timers, Snap threat on adds, crucial global cooldowns, etc that are negligible on their own but add up to be too many issues for the technical gain by gearing this way. It's also worth pointing out that total mitigation over the course of the fight isn't as important to your healers as short frame mitigation. If your incoming damage is smooth and consistant its still better than if you mitigated more total damage for the fight. Better for their mana bars, better for their reaction time, better for their sanity.

Just my opinions of course.

I think the short term window is so much more difficult to math out that the long term window, and I think 1 min...or possibly 30 seconds, is about the best I could do. Anything smaller than this and there are just too many 'what ifs' that you would end up with 100 different scenarios. I'm not saying the short term is not important, all the anecdotal evidence of 'I missed 4 times in a row and we wiped' sort of statements attest to that, but as is true in life the most memorable moments are not the ordinary everything is going well times.

So the best we can gives is statistical analysis. Which I think have already been discussed in the consecutive misses discussions. Which if you want to run your own numbers is quite simple, you take your total miss/dodge/parry, or 22.5%-(your hit)-(your exp), call that X. That is your chance of missing any 1 Keg Smash. You then multiply X by itself, that is your chance of missing the jab after the missed Keg Smash. You can continue to multiply to get the chance of consecutive misses.

[SSHA778]

I think the short term window is so much more difficult to math out that the long term window, and I think 1 min...or possibly 30 seconds, is about the best I could do. Anything smaller than this and there are just too many 'what ifs' that you would end up with 100 different scenarios.

It's not that it's harder to math out. It's simply that people fundamentally don't grasp the concept of probability (randomness), which, along with personal weights, is the driving force in short-term windows. Randomness is simply that--there is no sinister or benevolent mechanism behind it. It's neutral.

There is no standard for analyzing the short-term because of the fact that you can't use averages and because of personal weights. As you point out, you would need to break it down into every possible case, and each individual reviewing your work would need to assign a weight to each case (based on who knows what) and create a composite value.

People will look at the worst-case scenario without regard to the frequency of that scenario. Thus, even though, on average, with zero hit/expertise, the odds that you will miss both KS and Jab is 5% (or, on average, roughly once every 3 minutes), which is once or twice per fight, again, on average (and somehow assuming that you have 0% hit and 0% expertise, which is highly unlikely), go back through this thread and look at how many people have brought that specific complaint to the discussion.

Oddly enough, you never hear the reverse side. Let's say you had 0% hit/expertise and both KS and Jab landed (60% chance). Somehow that's not a problem anymore, now is it (presumably because it works in your favor)?

This is why trying to make a sweeping statement about gearing for the short-term is useless: your audience. Which brings me to my first post in this thread:

That's not to say that anything posted above is wrong, but it's going to be perceived that way due to the fact that living is binary (you do or you don't) and multiple stat combinations are tolerable.

[khatsoo]

And if you miss during your damage cds/boss receiving +%/needed burst phase? Caping gives you security in all those cases.

[The Madgod]

"1% chance" for bad rng, or bad eng happening on average every 45 mins, whatever the math, I don't see how with all those math brains you don't understand this increased RNG is BAD in a raid environment.

Of course it's bad, but a) We have tools to manage bad RNG (taunt, internal and external cooldowns, tank swapping (not always, focus on the first two)), so a string of bad RNG isn't necessarily going to wipe your group and b) Once every 45 minutes is about four times in three hours, or approximately once every 7.5 attempts, assuming an attempt is 6 minutes long.

So you have bad RNG that might not even kill you... about once every 7-8 attempts.

Why is it that you should gear for that specific event, now, when according to probability it'll only be an issue for 14-12.5% of your attempts? 86-87.5% of the time you won't have to worry. Once every 45 minutes is not an excuse to get your caps.

Once again, there's an assumption that a string of misses will be catastrophic, when we have tools that we can use for exactly this sort of situation. If you are on a bad streak, call out for an external. If you are not getting threat, taunt. Yes, of course its bad, but mathematically speaking, gearing for a scenario that happens less than 1% of the time (because you WILL have expertise and haste, even if you don't specifically gear for it) is not optimal, especially because we do have tools that we can use to minimize the problems that miss string brings.

And if you miss during your damage cds/boss receiving +%/needed burst phase? Caping gives you security in all those cases.

Assuming three misses in a row with one KS, one BoK, and one Jab/TP, that's, at least for me, averaging at about 350,000 - 400,000 damage lost, assuming they would all be crits.

If your raid wipes at 500,000 or less damage on the boss, then it might be a good idea, but also, it'd be far more likely due to the DPS not pushing their A game. A loss of 500,000 damage due to a miss string from a tank is extremely unlikely.

And once again, using the probability that one other guy mentioned, this would only be a potential issue in 1 out of 7 to 8 attempts, assuming 6 minutes per attempt. And even THEN, the probability that this would occur RIGHT when you were using your damage cooldowns to burn the boss means that this would be extremely unlikely.

What ifs don't help your case, since these can be calculated to be extremely rare occurrences. The most of the time, you won't be seeing stuff like that happen if you don't go into expertise and hit. Sacrificing overall numbers in favor of the rare chance that you might be messed up somewhat is not optimal play.

[SurrealNight]

I don't go for the expertise hard cap and I'm fine with the few misses I see. Just try to get a little lead time on Shuffle just in case before I start spending Chi on lvl 30 talents anyways. I do force the soft caps as any more misses than I experience would probably be to much for me.

Only time I find the misses hurting me is if it's the 1st or 2nd Keg Smash that misses which is a very infrequent event. Math aside I think it's more of a personal preference, if missing really pisses you off and throws you off your game than go for the hard cap.

[Chuupag]

So Chi Wave has been brought up a few times in regards to that if it misses it stops. I'd like to take a moment to show some math for that. As far as I am aware...Chi Wave is consider a spell, therefore follows the spell hit table of having a 15% chance to miss. For hybrid classes we get around that by exp also affecting spell hit. So to completely negate the miss chance you would need to be at 7.5/7.5, or any combination thereof that totals 15%.

First let me state that if you do not take the caps but are concerned about misses, the first thing you should do is make a self target macro for Chi Wave. That way the first bounce is a heal on you and you remove 1 more miss possibility from the table. The rest of this will assume you have done so.

So with 0/0 you have a 15% chance of it not bouncing to the 2nd friendly, a 12.75% chance of it not bouncing to the 3rd, and a .3% chance of it not bouncing to the 4th. If we weight these by the number of bounces, we get 100% bouncing 1, 85% bouncing 2, 72.25 bouncing 3, and 61.41 bouncing 4, for a total effective healing of 79.67%. So loosing 15% gives you an effective 20.33% reduction.

Using the same math with the more reasonable 4/4 gives us 88.63% effectiveness, or a 11.37% reduction for 9%

[Totaltotemic]

Using the same math with the more reasonable 4/4 gives us 88.63% effectiveness, or a 11.37% reduction for 9%

I'm confused as to why you keep doing this. If you're trying to categorically prove that replacing hit/expertise with an equivalent amount of haste is the way to go, why does it matter what the probability of any one specific event at an arbitrary hit chance is? What you should be talking about is how many MORE Chi Waves and Purifying Brews (the only two defensive Chi abilities not constrained by long cooldowns) you should be able to do throughout a fight as opposed to the total loss of Chi and effectiveness of Chi Waves compared to the gains from haste, since a discussion on different probabilities is essentially worthless without comparing it to something.

This is all of course assuming that you're still totally and completely ignoring the 5 second window in favor of judging effectiveness over an entire fight.

[SurrealNight]

First let me state that if you do not take the caps but are concerned about misses, the first thing you should do is make a self target macro for Chi Wave. That way the first bounce is a heal on you and you remove 1 more miss possibility from the table. The rest of this will assume you have done so.

Hah never even thought to try and cast Chi Wave on myself thought it had to start on an enemy =/ What other tricks are you keeping from me!

[SSHA778]

For the selfish:

#showtooltip
/cast [@player] Chi Wave

[checking facts]

it kinda makes sense from a design PoV, since a drunk guy wouldn't hit stuff with perfect accuracy all the time lol

[Obamatheone]

it kinda makes sense from a design PoV, since a drunk guy wouldn't hit stuff with perfect accuracy all the time lol

He is a master of drunken boxing... He only gets stronger the more he drinks!

[DakonBlackblade]

The only problem with your numbers is that they disconsider randoness completly, having a 22.5% miss chance dont mean youll always miss 1 attack every 4-5 swings, you can very well go on a 3-4 miss streak and them youre doomed.

Exp Hit ofers you a much better controll over your rotation, altough I agree hard capping exp seen unecessary for most tank classes (I dont do it on my DK but Im a DK deathstrikes cant be parried).

[cyqu]

I might be a fucking retard and have no clue what a "single-roll" system is, but correct me if I'm wrong. Exp/hit affect the amount of attacks you effectively HIT the target with. If crit % stays the same, more hits will inevitable result in more crits over a 5 minute fight, no?

---------- Post added 2012-11-11 at 11:07 AM ----------



In 10-man raids these days Chuupag, survivability and mitigation is not all that matters. A tank should be able to pull out some decent numbers, for progress raids to be able to make enrage timers. I'd definitely like to see logs of a Monk ignoring 7.5 % hit/exp in a top end PvE guild.

Furthermore, it seems like your post is looking at Brewmasters like their only job is to stay alive. This is the real misconception of the post in my honest opinion. Tanks are not like that anymore. I don't know if you realize how much affect hit/exp have on your HPS (through Guards on raid)? Well, I can tell you it's HUGE! And at the end of the day, tank deaths are definitely not the most common reason for wipes these days. So, to narrow it down, you have two options:

1. More survivability for you personally, but low DPS and HPS.
2. Lower survivability for you personallly, but much higher DPS and HPS.

It might just be me, but in 10-man raiding, I'd go for option 2. It might be different in 25m.

And please remember we're talking soft cap here - not hard cap. I am definitely convinced, after much testing, that Haste > Exp, past 7.5 %, though I will be trying to get the exp hard cap at higher ilvls, so I can push my DPS/HPS even more.

Looking forward to your reply.

/Zumzar

the best reply in the thread, and i agree 100% with you zumzar, i have also been thinking about hard capping later on, the dps/hps increase from just the few parries were getting now would be a lot more then many would imagine.

[kaiadam]

Might be a silly question but:

What exactly is the difference between going for hit cap vs going for expertise hard cap (over soft cap)?

First 2550 expertise rating gives you: -7.5 dodge, -7.5 parry.
First 2550 hit rating gives you: -7.5 miss
Second 2550 expertise rating gives you: -7.5 parry.

What's the deal with going for hit/expertise soft cap? Healthy medium? Or it might be simpler to have expertise at 10% and hit at 5%?

I mean, logically, if you're going for hit cap, that means you're valuing 7.5% additional chance to hit higher than 2550 of some other rating like crit/haste, then wouldn't it be completely illogical to not do the same thing for expertise hard cap?

Also, what's this deal with 0 hit/expertise = 22.5% miss? Isn't it more like 7.5 miss + 7.5 dodge + 15 parry = 30%?

[Discostu]

We do have a taunt, you know.

Just throwing out some of my personal experiences regarding missed abilities and taunts:
On stone guards I've seen things go wrong since you usually want to hold your taunt for swaps... pulling the 2 dogs if not hit/exp capped (soft capped), your keg smash misses and its basically a wipe...

Same if you pull Elegon first then you have to take the first protector... if DPS pulls threat due to missed kegsmash and you have to taunt Elegon, then other tank needs to pick up add and you'll be dealing with very high stack counts.