Romanian and Bulgarian migrants 'unlikely to head for UK' – report

[Deleted]

Edit: inside the topic I'll be seen talking about the "UK people being anti-romanian and anti-bulgarian". I am largely talking about your politicians and the people falling for their "immigrants from these countries are all evil" speeches. If you are neither of those yet you're still from UK, I don't dislike you and my ranting is not aimed at you. I know there are a lot of nice people in the UK too... but your voices seem really covered by those who attack my country so understand why I am so vicious too.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/ap...igrants-report

A Foreign Office-commissioned report has directly challenged claims by David Cameron and others that Britain faces a significant new wave of immigration from eastern Europe when labour movement restrictions on Bulgaria and Romania are lifted next January.

The study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research says that Britain is unlikely to be the preferred destination for Bulgarians and Romanians and says those who do come are not planning to exploit the benefits system and public services. The researchers say it is not possible to put an accurate or reliable figure on how many people will come to Britain but adds that those who do move are far more likely to go to Spain, Italy and to a lesser extent Germany.

The report drew immediate criticism that it was a "bucket of whitewash" from anti-migration campaigner Sir Andrew Green, of Migration Watch UK, for failing to estimate the likely scale of migration after next year's changes.

Keith Vaz, chairman of the Commons home affairs committee, criticised the lack of any estimate of expected arrivals and demanded the government commission a full study into the impact of the move.

The authors say that those who do come to the UK will do so to improve their job prospects and living standards and not as benefit or health "tourists". They are likely to be young and without families, at least initially, and so their impact on public services is likely to be modest. Unlike the wave of Polish, Lithuanian and other east European migration since 2004, Romanians and Bulgarians are much more likely to head for London and south-east England rather than be dispersed across the country.

The study commissioned by the British embassy in Bucharest in order to estimate the impact on British public services, was described by the minister for Europe, David Lidington, as a welcome contribution to the debate. "The report will help to shape this government's work to build an immigration system that works in the national interest," he said.

The tone of the report is in sharp contrast to last week's immigration speech by David Cameron, in which he promised tougher rules denying new migrants access to welfare benefits, housing and other public services. It also undermines the claims of some Tory MPs that as many as 350,000 to 450,000 Romanians and Bulgarians are poised to move to Britain from the end of this year.

The NIESR report says that potential migration of families from Romania and Bulgaria could increase pressure on primary school places in some areas but says the scale will depend on whether they arrive with children or settle in Britain and start families. Some extra language help will be needed. There is also likely to be added pressure at the lower end of the privately-rented housing market, potentially driving up rents.

The research says that as most of those who come will generally be younger, healthy and working, they are unlikely to make major demands on health services. Although they do say that the higher rates of TB in Romania and Bulgaria have implications for future NHS service planning.

The assessment of only a modest impact on public services rests on the evidence that much existing east European migration to Britain is temporary. They say if that pattern changes and they come to settle long-term then it will have significant implications for British public services.

The report says that any estimate of future numbers coming to Britain is likely to be inaccurate and misleading. The economic conditions in Bulgaria and Romania mean that the potential for emigration is significant, it adds, but Britain, it says, is unlikely to be the preferred destination.

"The main destination countries for Romanian and Bulgarian (EU2) migrants are Spain and Italy, and to a lesser extent Germany. These choices reflect restrictions and freedoms on the right of Romanians and Bulgarians to work across the EU, employment opportunities and similarities in language. As time goes on, the presence of social and economic networks of existing migrants may mean that EU2 continue to migrate to Spain and Italy rather than other EU member states." Rising unemployment in Spain could have an impact however.

The report says that the numbers already living in Britain are relatively low, at 26,000 Bulgarians and 80,000 Romanians. They are overwhelmingly aged under 35 and tend to have slightly higher skill levels than similar migrants in the rest of Europe. They tend to work in hospitality, cleaning services and construction.

The authors add that there are probably Bulgarians and Romanians also working in Britain in the "grey economy" with a spurious "self-employed" status: "It is possible that once restrictions are lifted, actual numbers of EU2 citizens working in the UK may not actually increase substantially," they conclude.

[Tekkommo]

Shame, eastern europeans are hot.

[Deleted]

Well well, Cameron was talking out of his arse, who would have tought His lucky the EU is letting him stew gently in his own juice

[Cybran]

Did you read the comment section of the article?

http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2013/04/0...-of-bulgarian/

Prime Minister David Cameron writing in today’s Daily Mail has promised to vigorously throw Bulgarians and any other Eastern Europeans who aren’t planning to open large bank accounts directly back into the sea. “Bulgarians are of course amphibious and would be perfectly happy wading just off the coast off Folkestone until the necessary paperwork is completed,” the Prime Minister wrote

Best April's fool ever. Made my day.

On topic: The way the big EU countries deal with immigration is despicable.

http://www.dw.de/germany-tries-warme...nts/a-16713149

Germany has a well-known skilled worker shortage and wants to boost immigration. But the country doesn't have the reputation for making it easy on newcomers. New initiatives seek to change that.

http://www.dw.de/deported-roma-face-...ovo/a-16710238

In the last three years, more than 2,500 Roma from Kosovo have been forced to leave Germany, including people and families that lived in Germany for years. DW reports on the deportation of a family back to Kosovo.

They cherry pick the skilled people they can use, but turn the other countries in ghettos.

[Noomz]

Expect when you look at the criminal gangs, then suddenly the numbers aren't fantasy anymore.

[Deleted]

I don't care, I still want to leave the EU.

The UK is full, please, go elsewhere.

Largest child sex ring uncovered in UK history in a city close to me and it says they're of mixed nationality. I'm betting most of them are Eastern Europeans or Muslims from wherever going by the city.

[Cybran]

Expect when you look at the criminal gangs, then suddenly the numbers aren't fantasy anymore.

This reminds me of how Geert Wilders party said that "Eastern europeans brought drugs and prostitution to Holland"...The same Holland that made drugs and prostitution legal.

http://www.dw.de/eastern-europe-bera...ite/a-15742494

[Deleted]

This reminds me of how Geert Wilders party said that "Eastern europeans brought drugs and prostitution to Holland"...The same Holland that made drugs and prostitution legal.

http://www.dw.de/eastern-europe-bera...ite/a-15742494

Lots of things are legal with regulations...

[Bolson13]

This reminds me of how Geert Wilders party said that "Eastern europeans brought drugs and prostitution to Holland"...The same Holland that made drugs and prostitution legal.

http://www.dw.de/eastern-europe-bera...ite/a-15742494

Lol, he also made a website where people could complain about polish people. He got like 400 complaints about Polish people and 400.000 (or something rediculously higher) about the website. And here we have a satyrical news show that just blasted another MP of his party with jokes about it.

(journalist) "so now that you have 400 votes, does that mean that the borders should be closed?"
(MP) "yes, of course. Those are 400 serious complaints, no Polish allowed!"
(journalist) "but you have 400.000 people complaining about you, shouldn't you leave as well then?"

I can't express the way he said it in words obviously but it came out so funny and the face of that MP, brilliant TV.

[Cybran]

I don't care, I still want to leave the EU.

I want us to leave the EU as well. We are getting suffocated by regulations and slowing becoming a puppet of Brussels.

The UK is full, please, go elsewhere.

If the UK is full then why is Cameron making speeches in India and encouraging students to go to UK? I am confused?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...a-8498719.html

Aren't you full?

Largest child sex ring uncovered in UK history in a city close to me and it says they're of mixed nationality. I'm betting most of them are Eastern Europeans or Muslims from wherever going by the city.

So you have no idea, but you just assume things? Based on what? Prejudice?

[Deleted]

So you have no idea, but you just assume things? Based on what? Prejudice?

Statistical likelihood perhaps? Same as with gang rapes in Sweden, you can almost with a 90% predictability say they're from middle east or africa.

[Coffer]

Is anyone even surprised anymore?...

[Deleted]

I want us to leave the EU as well. We are getting suffocated by regulations and slowing becoming a puppet of Brussels.


If the UK is full then why is Cameron making speeches in India and encouraging students to go to UK? I am confused?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...a-8498719.html

Aren't you full?

So you have no idea, but you just assume things? Based on what? Prejudice?

We're full when it comes to the unmitigated migration of unskilled and entry-level workers from the EU.

I don't care if people come here that actually have something worthwhile to contribute to our society and economy. I'd much prefer a system like Australia and Canada to make sure we don't get the riff raff.

Attracting students and new professionals is a good thing.

And you can call it prejudice, I'd call it an educated guess going by previous experience and observations. The city it's in is swamped with Eastern Europeans and Muslims, both of which have been involved in similar cases recently.

[Deleted]

They said the same thing when people were worried about Polish people coming over.

Governments change the BS and incompetence doesn't, why they can't just admit they haven't a clue how many will come over?

[Deleted]

They said the same thing when people were worried about Polish people coming over.

Governments change the BS and incompetence doesn't, why they can't just admit they haven't a clue how many will come over?

Indeed. Because we totally didn't have far too many Polish come here.

[Cybran]

And you can call it prejudice, I'd call it an educated guess going by previous experience and observations. The city it's in is swamped with Eastern Europeans and Muslims, both of which have been involved in similar cases recently.

I usually get banned for weeks when i make "educated guesses based on previous experience". If you have statistical data and valid sources that we brought crime to the UK than link it. Until then i will stick to this.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/ju...-crime-britain

Crime has always been an import-export affair and in many ways mirrors "legitimate" business. As old family firms in Britain have been replaced by multinationals so, too, have the family-based gangs in Britain (the Krays, Richardsons, Arifs, Adams) been overtaken by multinationals, where different nationalities co-operate in the pursuit of higher profits. This is a two-way street. Many British criminals have moved abroad, most famously establishing themselves on the Costa del Crime. Many still operate there, making money from everything from bent time-share deals to drugs smuggled in from Morocco; more than 2,000 Britons had their collars felt in Spain last year alone. British criminals also made themselves at home everywhere from Thailand to Florida. The police may well be right when they say that the Games will attract villains from the east but, if there was to be an Olympics for crime, homegrown Britons would still be going for gold.

[Hulari]

Indeed. Because we totally didn't have far too many Polish come here.

not at all! heh.. you should come to peterborough. >_<

[Deleted]

not at all! heh.. you should come to peterborough. >_<

I used to live in a surrounding village. I've seen how awful it is, especially Millfield and Eastfield area.

[Deleted]

Did you read the comment section of the article?

http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2013/04/0...-of-bulgarian/

lol, that's great, thanks for linking it.

As for the second part of your post, not surprising, I knew they do this. And UK and Germany are not the only ones. It's kind of sad to see it, but first and foremost the people of those countries must realize that the other people from Europe are not some beggars and black sheep coming for them. It's a bit hard to see that though when the parties boast in them kicking "unlawful" immigrants all the time as a means to distract the people from other problems their countries actually have.

[Deleted]

I've never really minded European immigration, I live in a fairly nice area so we don't have those communities of migrants banding together as a defense mechanism, places like that seem to be the ones that begin to cause problems. I see a lot of people who post all that "keep Britain British" stuff on their Facebook but I've never really cared, I have a lot of friends who came from other countries and most of the Chavs I see are White-British anyway.