So looking ahead into the future, what do you think the sub loss (or gain) will look like after Q2 this year?
Do you think ToT gave the game some new life to save some of the sub loss of Q1?
Predictions everyone.
So looking ahead into the future, what do you think the sub loss (or gain) will look like after Q2 this year?
Do you think ToT gave the game some new life to save some of the sub loss of Q1?
Predictions everyone.
Lower. Just not as drastic as the last. Not that I care anyway. I'm still enjoying myself.
They've already said they expect the decline to continue so I am not sure there is any point having a poll
Already, the Q1 announcement was only earlier this month? Seems like people can't stop talking about the doomsaying of WoW.
ToT was released on the 5 March. The Q1 figures were dated 31 March.
They expect a sub drop by the end of the expansion. It does not necessarily mean right after this major sub loss they just had.
---------- Post added 2013-05-16 at 11:47 PM ----------
Do the subs usually rise when new patches are released? Why (in your opinion) did the the subs fall so low after a new patch was released?
Calling it. 7.7M subs when the Q2 numbers come in.
Down at least 500k. Probably down less than Q1, but still down notably.
FFXIV - Maduin (Dynamis DC)
I think subs will keep dropping until MoP is done and over with.
Kotick said they expect subs to keep dropping the rest of this year and be lower (then 8.3M) at year end (not expac end). He based this assumption on the fact that July to Dec are considered tougher months with new game releases and more 'entertainment' competition overall (from all industries).
I'll stick with the guy who's been CEO of the company for 20years.
I'm guessing we'll see in the 6 million range. The damage is already done since Q2 is pretty much over. There has been nothing positive added or talked about since Q1 so it will only be worse since the instance ins't "new" anymore, the daily island is over, the LFR has been seen fully. I can only see it being just as bad if not worse.
In our next poll, we shoot fish in a barrel. It will require divine intervention to go up. Heck, they predicted further losses at the Q1 call, when they already knew the first month of Q2.
"There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
"The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
"Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"
Too early for this <eyeroll>
Down, don't care how much. The last month has been one of the best in-game for me personally in a long time.
Probably down even more in Q3 as people go and take a Rift vacation for a month or three.
"...money's most powerful ability is to allow bad people to continue doing bad things at the expense of those who don't have it."
"There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
"The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
"Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"
Pet Battle Spectator Mode will raise the subs, don't worry.
8m even Is my guess.
If by some miracle the subs rise, ill guess 8.5m, and if they see a big drop again ill guess 7.5m
---------- Post added 2013-05-16 at 08:11 PM ----------
I forgot about the Rift factor.
Im going to readjust my estimates.
guessing 7.7m
best case scenario is 8.4m
worst case is 7.2m
Q2 2013 = 7.7 Million
TBC like expansion at BC = 10+ Million.
CATA like expansion at BC = 8.5 Million.
My guess is 7.6M.
It will definitely be lower than 8M.
from these facts:
-> blizzard have officially stated they 'expected' further sub drops
-> wow census shows crash in activity levels over q2
-> going into exam and summer holiday season
-> age of wushu and other fp2mmo / league of legends growing very quickly in the east
and the anecdotal evidence of widespread dissatisfaction / inactivity, that people are pretty bored of mop now....
I would guess at least 500k drop, probably around 800k, but possibly much higher