WotLK to MoP: A Trend Analysis of Raiding Difficulty.

[Deleted]

I've just realised this last bit is squid ink.

Anyone want to go back to the OP and talk about that?

You mean the single most biased data set in the history of the modern world?

The discussion has evolved from that.

[Deleted]

Which the data supports it does, by a fair margin

What does it support? That ToT normal mode beats out Ulduar, Icc and tier 11? Or that Icc and tier beats out ToT?

[hyphnos]

The point of the metric is that not everyone have cleared it. Checking after 1 month is the best timeline possible as you still have a lot of people that did not clear it, and nerfs has likely not happened yet.

If you check after 1 month and see "oh, 10% of players cleared this raid and 30% cleared this raid", it says more then checking after 4 months seeing "Oh, 78% cleared this raid and 81% this raid".

% of guilds clearing 1 boss to clearing the entire tier doesn't speak at all to people who aren't raiding anymore and you can't dismiss the extreme drop in numbers by saying "LFR did it" and leaving it at that. It also overlooks the obvious fact that when larger numbers of people are doing something challenging, then average performance will be lower.

If only the honor graduates in a state take the SAT/ACT then that state's average score will be higher than a state where 50% of the students take those tests. It doesn't mean that the test is easier in states where only honor graduates take the test.

If raiding is hard enough to drive out below average, then average and then even some above average raiders (which would be reflected as a drop of absolute number of raiders) then of course the success rate of the more determined better skilled raiders that are left will be higher, which is exactly what is happening.

[Pua]

I'd argue that the player base at the bottom has remained largely unchanged. LFR just brought a broader section of the pre-existing player base into raiding via LFR. It looks worse, but the same really good high end raiders are still there, you can just see all the other players too now. Before LFR they were invisible, now you see what has always been there.

That's a fair comment, I wouldn't disagree. All I'd really say for definite is that the best players now are the best players the game has ever been. I certainly wouldn't disagree with your view, though.

Sadly there is no data for how many guilds are wiping on the first boss in each tier. If there was I would gladly use it. However as this cannot be provided, you just have to check the second best. Which is guilds that killed the first boss.

Blizzard must have this data, and Ghostcrawler's tweets imply that people are wiping less on Jin'rokh than they were on Stone Guards. Alas, that information is next to useless when you look at how many guilds were killed off by T14.

Please don't do that. You can't add the 10 and 25 man figures in Wrath, since just about every 25 man guild was already represented in the 10 man figures.

If you're trying to compute total number of raiders, do something like M x 10 + N x 15, where M is the 10 man figure and N is the 25 man figure (the 15 is the "extra" the 25 man guild has.) Even this ignores bench/multiple raid teams.

Of course. I'm merely highlighting what Cataclysm and the shared lockout did to the raiding scene. That said, you'd still expect Cataclysm guild numbers to be higher than they were in T11 given that many 25-man guilds were counted more than twice as they had the players for three 10-mans, and the subscription numbers hit their peak.

It's still a staggering drop.

Also that data is still kinda irrelevant as the tier was out for over a year, cant check how many guilds cleared it after 12 months and call it relevant data ^^
Guilds disband and reform.

The data must be relevant for Cataclysm and MoP, particularly because you haven't tried to argue with it. Raids are getting harder. Accept it and move on.

At least on my server Northren Beasts on 25 man was being one shot by PuGs on launch day with the first four bosses in ICC 25 man being cleared by PuGs on launch day as well. There really should not be much variance with those along with Marrowgar and I think ToC being part of the weekly raid quest which means that players who would also not bother with raiding would still do them and bail.

Aye, similar on Kilrogg EU. The point is purely that the data implies players don't need to complete instances, they just need to feel they're progressing and they'll come back. They do this consistently until MoP, as my last bigger post proved.

And are these numbers from when the content was current or does it include players who went back after the expansion and did them?

As far as I know, WoW Progress stops tracking them once they're no longer current. That being said, the length of time Icecrown and Dragon Soul were current for is a clear outlier we can't ignore, so I'd stick with the frightening MoP statistics.

You mean the single most biased data set in the history of the modern world?

The discussion has evolved from that.

And of course its biased. I said that at the very beginning.

Unfortunately, that doesn't stop it from being right. Sucks to be you.

But do you know where the unsubscribers are? What if the people un-subbing are NOT the ones raiding the current content but are instead guildless LFR junkies that are satisfied they've "beaten" the game by killing lei-shen (possibly while afk).

Nah, there's nothing that suggests to me that those unsubscribing are necessarily fed up raiders. I think it contributes, certainly, but from the 12 million high to the two million drop between the launch and close of Cataclysm, raiding numbers were pretty stable in the main.

Honestly?

I think it was the sacking of 25-man raiding guilds. They were so much more than a collection of 25 raiders, and their value to the community is only now (to me) appreciated once they're gone.

[Deleted]

And of course its biased. I said that at the very beginning.

Unfortunately, that doesn't stop it from being right. Sucks to be you.

I think you have been disproven enough times in this thread.

[ObiChad]

As far as I know, WoW Progress stops tracking them once they're no longer current.

Unfortunately that's not the case. They just report totals. You have to dig through the kills to figure out when the last current one occurred.

I'd be happy to dig through the data later and make some charts and graphs if we can agree on what to look at.

[Deleted]

The data must be relevant for Cataclysm and MoP, particularly because you haven't tried to argue with it. Raids are getting harder. Accept it and move on.

Nah, entirely inaccurate for cataclysm and T14 aswell. Though you would understand that.

Brace yourself for this!

Checking current stats on wowprogress is only relevent for
BRACE YOURSELF
current tier!
*gasp*

---------- Post added 2013-06-03 at 10:53 PM ----------

Unfortunately that's not the case. They just report totals. You have to dig through the kills to figure out when the last current one occurred.

I'd be happy to dig through the data later and make some charts and graphs if we can agree on what to look at.

Which is what I have been doing. Digging through the stats.

---------- Post added 2013-06-03 at 10:55 PM ----------

Blizzard must have this data, and Ghostcrawler's tweets imply that people are wiping less on Jin'rokh than they were on Stone Guards. Alas, that information is next to useless when you look at how many guilds were killed off by T14.

Yes, and all the guilds that stopped playing because they wiped on mimiron trash means that all data after T8 is irrelevant or what?

[NeverStop]

As far as I know, WoW Progress stops tracking them once they're no longer current

Then explain to me why the last recorded Heroic Sha of Fear kill was 14 days ago. http://www.wowprogress.com/encounter...roic?video=any

[ObiChad]

Which is what I have been doing. Digging through the stats.

Are there any other stats other than one month completion rates you would be willing to look at regarding raid difficulty? or effects of LFR? Numbers of all bosses while content was current? First boss vs last boss completion rate while content was current? Maybe limit ICC and DS to some shorter number?

[Deleted]

Are there any other stats other than one month completion rates you would be willing to look at regarding raid difficulty? or effects of LFR? Numbers of all bosses while content was current? First boss vs last boss completion rate while content was current? Maybe limit ICC and DS to some shorter number?

I could but take times. I was planning on checking 2 months after my raid tonight. Checking anything after 2 months is bad since then some raids get nerfs, buffs start kicking in etc etc.

Did not feel like wasting my time to bring forward data to people that could not see the truth if it punched them in the face and got 0 relevant data themselves and then makes poor attempts to dismiss relevant data.

You got any specific wishes / ideas to make the data more relevant?

[ObiChad]

You got any specific wishes / ideas to make the data more relevant?

Again, I'm happy to help dig up the numbers as well, but it's not incredibly worth it if we are just going to argue later about why those numbers were chosen.

For me, content while current, with a cutoff for last tiers, seems like at least one data point to have.

[Deleted]

Again, I'm happy to help dig up the numbers as well, but it's not incredibly worth it if we are just going to argue later about why those numbers were chosen.

For me, content while current, with a cutoff for last tiers, seems like at least one data point to have.

Nerfs are different for each tier, duration of the tiers are different. You cant compare 12 months of ICC with 30% buff vs 6 months of T11 with no nerfs until T12.

As I said, I think any data after 2 months is irrelevant. Since after 2 months, any raiding guild will have killed atleast 1 boss, which puts them into the "data".
Different nerfs etc, guilds reforming, recreating.

So yeah, think 2 months is the upper limit where content is relevant.

[ObiChad]

Since after 2 months, any raiding guild will have killed at least 1 boss, which puts them into the "data".
Different nerfs etc, guilds reforming, recreating.

They are in the data, but they aren't considered for a tier clear. If it takes a guild nearly a full tier length, 6 months ish, the 2 month cuttoff won't fully count them. So I'm not sure that gets at what we want.

I agree about the blanket nerfs, but normally occurs in the last tier, and can be mostly accounted for by having a cuttoff of some sort that would be the end of a normal tier.

For minor non blanket nerfs, that seems to be done, based on what they devs say anyway, to get content to the difficulty level they intended, so in theory we would want to account for that.

But this may all be moot. I'm trying to account for a guild that likely doesn't kill the final boss of a tier before the next tier drops, which I believe is more the "norm" while I believe you would say the "norm" is more clearing the tier and farming it and a few heroic modes before the next tier.

Possibly we need to come up with a way of determining what the "norm" is first. Can we use any of this data to figure that out?

[Deleted]

They are in the data, but they aren't considered for a tier clear. If it takes a guild nearly a full tier length, 6 months ish, the 2 month cuttoff won't fully count them. So I'm not sure that gets at what we want.

You dont understand. A guild that is 1/12 is in the data. They dont need to be 12/12.

The whole point is to check how many guilds kill 1 boss, and how many guilds killed the final boss and see the difference.

If 20000 guilds kill the first boss in raid A, and 2000 killed the final boss after 2 months. That means 90% of the guilds didnt kill it.
If 10000 guilds kill the first boss in raid B, and 1500 killed the final boss after 2 months, that means 85% of the guilds didnt kill it.

By logical conclusion, the normals in raid A was harder since a smaller % of the guilds cleared it.

[schwank05]

I agree 10000%, I have been saying this since 5.2 Dropped, our guild which was top 3 on our server back in Naxx 25 has had a rapid decline since Cata hit. And has now completely died and stopped raiding once we hit the Horridon wall. We also only cleared MSV last tier and got up to amber shaper in HOF. This new harder normal mode raids model is killing raiding experience for many of us. I have never nor will I ever like to do Heroic modes I did a few in cata and it wasn't for me. why waste time wiping on a boss we have had on farm for 6 weeks.

[ObiChad]

You dont understand. A guild that is 1/12 is in the data. They dont need to be 12/12.

I get your numbers, I do. I disagree with what they mean. Let me try to explain with made up numbers.

Let's assume one tier, 10 guilds clear the first boss in one month, 1 guild kills the last boss in one month, 20 guilds clear the first boss while current, and 10 guilds kill the last boss while current (say 5 months).

Another tier, 10 guilds clear the first boss in one month, 1 guild kill the last boss in one month, 15 guilds clear the first boss while current, and 5 guilds kills the last boss while current.

With your metric, the tiers are the same difficulty, with a longer period, the first tier is clearly easier.

[Deleted]

I get your numbers, I do. I disagree with what they mean. Let me try to explain with made up numbers.

Let's assume one tier, 10 guilds clear the first boss in one month, 1 guild kills the last boss in one month, 20 guilds clear the first boss while current, and 10 guilds kill the last boss while current (say 5 months).

Another tier, 10 guilds clear the first boss in one month, 1 guild kill the last boss in one month, 15 guilds clear the first boss while current, and 5 guilds kills the last boss while current.

With your metric, the tiers are the same difficulty, with a longer period, the first tier is clearly easier.

If a raid is out for 12 or 6 months has nothing to do with the difficulty. It does however affect the amount of guilds that clears it. That is why checking 1/2 months makes sense. Not checking the entire tier.

[ObiChad]

If a raid is out for 12 or 6 months has nothing to do with the difficulty. It does however affect the amount of guilds that clears it. That is why checking 1/2 months makes sense. Not checking the entire tier.

I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree on that point.

[Deleted]

why waste time wiping on a boss we have had on farm for 6 weeks.

Why do you bother running normal? You can just run the boss in LFR and have if on farm 6 weeks before you do on normal.

For the same reason heroic guilds run heroic modes.

[Pua]

Nah, entirely inaccurate for cataclysm and T14 aswell. Though you would understand that.

Brace yourself for this!

Checking current stats on wowprogress is only relevent for
BRACE YOURSELF
current tier!
*gasp*

See, this is what I'm talking about. You completely ignore the MoP attrition rate posted, then behave like a child because simply accepting that you're wrong is psychologically beyond you. I'm sorry, but this is my last response to you on the question of whether or not raids are harder now than they've ever been. I already conceded that there's an argument that final bosses are easier (I certainly think Lei Shen is easier than Arthas or Yogg-Saron), but the drop off rate in MoP is incredibly bad.

The drop off in guild numbers for MISTS OF PANDARIA is the most accurate and relevant data we have.

You only ignore it because it shows an appalling attrition rate that the game's not seen before, and over two tiers where the variables are at their minimum. This is difficult for you because it's in complete contradiction to the agenda you're trying to push.

By logical conclusion, the normals in raid A was harder since a smaller % of the guilds cleared it.

No, the logical conclusion is that the FINAL BOSS in raid A was harder. That's it. The way you're using the data leaves you with only that.

That's why, for MoP, I've been going boss by boss and looking at the attrition rates (you know, the sections you're conveniently ignoring?).

I'm not arguing with your numbers, and nor is ObiChad, I don't think; we're arguing with their relevance because a progressing guild doesn't have to kill a final boss to still be progressing, and certainly not after a month.

Why do you bother running normal? You can just run the boss in LFR and have if on farm 6 weeks before you do on normal.

For the same reason heroic guilds run heroic modes.

And now you've devolved into trying to disprove how a person feels.

Nice one.

Are you a Blizzard employee?