Warlords of Draenor Release Date

[Isoge]

I think blizz are desperate to get rid of the shitstorm we call pandaria. my guess will be march 2014. They can afford to keep it running until late 2014, but they won't. Here's why;

Every time we get a report that blizz has dropped x amounts of subs, people start to think that "hmm, this game seems boring if that many people quit". Call it a chain reaction of sorts. Of course many people are not subjected to this chain reaction, but many are. The people affected will also see the boring aspects of the game. "Why should I pay to do raidfinder with a bunch of idiots who don't know what stop attacking means" <---- these types of scenarios are what the so called casuals are experiencing right now.

And most of the people quit halfway through raidfinder not being able to gear up to at least enter a decent group for flex (since they all want you to have killed garrosh on normal, link the ahead of the curve or have a shitload of ilvl). What are the casuals paying for now you ask? Some shitty pokemon game, one living steel a day and a bunch of dailies no one gives a crap about.

SoO patch 5.4 was fun. The first two weeks that is. After method "brought down" garrosh, only a few guilds did the same. Two months in, there were only 45 guilds that had "killed" garrosh. As of now, there are only 104 (0.43%) of the guilds that have defeated garrosh. The usual complaint (before SoO, and MoP in general) was that the bosses were boring and/or too easy. SoO was not easy. It was hard, but also boring. And really, really not fitting the image of the direction blizz was going with the simplified talent system and whatever they had in mind. I'm not saying it should have been easier. But the mechanics were so boring and needlessly overcomplicated. You can't really call that hard. Just mind-numbing.

Where am I going with this? This: They want to pull the plug on mists of pandaria as soon as possible. The beta will most likely launch in january. The game is already coming to dreamhack winter (which is in 3 days from now) so the game is almost finished. Otherwise they wouldn't be showcasing it in a major event.

While they are completing the finishing touches before the closed beta, the subs will continue to drop. They can't afford this. Not from a financial aspect, but their reputation is at stake. I mean, who would want to play a game where the players are rushing to quit?

I don't care if SoO were to be the new ICC and last the entire year. But what differs from these two is that ICC was enjoyable. Lich king was a great boss, the best after illidan. I loved every aspect of it (besides the stupid debuffs on lich king). SoO is not enjoyable. The only thing that could have brought joy from SoO, even with lame mechanics and drawn out fights, is if we could kill Garrosh. But nope, he gets captured only to break out and leave for time travels. This sucks.

I am not the only one to enjoy ICC so much that I stayed the entire expansion.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2...rs-by-quarter/

The numbers here show that the subs actually increased towards the end of ICC/beginning of cata, only to drop Q1 2011 directly after the release of cataclysm.

From every aspect, mists of pandaria was a disgrace to the name of WoW. It didn't bring anything to the table. It took away what was good with WoW and left like an ungrateful little brat. And the people at blizz still scratch their heads and wonder what went wrong..... They will attempt to pull the plug on pandaria as soon as possible. Late march 2014 is the release date. April at latest.

[Spichora]

Dreanors will be released on July imo, because of new PVP Season

[mmocfd1b0ab5a3]

July 15th is already confirmed

[Deleted]

July 15th is already confirmed

Emm.... source?

[Tiberria]

Dreanors will be released on July imo, because of new PVP Season

At this point, I view August to October as being the most likely time frame. I think June is all but 100% ruled out, and I think July is fairly unlikely. Here are my reasons.

1. Earnings Call Announcement
-The comments on the earnings call about the bulk of the Blizzard releases being in the second half of the year make it extremely likely that WoD is being targeted at a Q3 or later release (July or later).

2. PvP Season
-The new PvP season will likely start on February 25. They gave the 2 week end of season announcement on February 4, so the current season should end February 18, and there has always been a 1 week period between seasons in the past (except for final seasons of expansions).
-The final PvP season always ends at the pre-expansion patch, which has always been at least 4 weeks before the expansion.
-The shortest ever PvP season was 17 weeks and the average PvP season is 24 weeks long. A 17 week PvP season would put the release in late July, a 20 week PvP season would put the release in mid August, and an average length season would put the release in mid September.
-It's possible they will break all patterns and make the PvP season shorter than ever, but I think that is stretching it and I just don't think they would have another PvP season in the first place if it was going to be <15 weeks long.

3. Beta Duration
-I believe 5-7 months is the likely duration of beta
-The beta cycle has gotten longer with every subsequent expansion, which would put the trend for the WoD beta at 7 months
-You can argue that without a new class/race and a larger team size, that trend may be broken, which is possible, so I could see it dropping to 5 months or being 6 months again
-In the past, the raid testing/class balance period of beta has lasted at least 3 months, and the PTR cycle of major patches has also taken about 3 months. I think expecting a beta in the sub-5 month time frame is (like expecting a sub 17 week PvP season) wishful thinking, and probably unrealistic.
-Beta will likely start shortly after 5.4.7 goes live, so probably somewhere in the late February to early March time frame. With a 5-7 month beta, that lines up with late July to early October as the probable release window.

4. Other Blizzard/Activision Games:
-We know that Destiny launches September 9, and there is some reason to believe Activision would not want WoD within a few weeks of Destiny because of the potential sales cannibalization. Then again, they may not think that a PC MMO expansion really competes enough with a console game to care about it
-If they don't want Destiny and WoD out at the same time, it may make August or October more likely than September

5. Summer Release Date:
-Some people adamantly dispute this, but there is some reason to believe that a July or August release is considered less optimal than a release outside of peak summer vacation periods. There has never been a WoW expansion released during the summer, but there has been some major game releases (SC2). You could argue that MMO expansions are more affected by release timing, because so much of the customer retention potential comes from how many people start playing at the start of the expansion.
-If they want to avoid the mid summer vacation months, September or October may be more likely.

Based on all of this, I think June is almost certainly out of the question, and July looks unlikely, because only the most optimistic estimates for the PvP season/beta length would put the release in July.

My opinion is that late September is the most likely time frame, and I am currently predicting September 30 as the release date. This falls in line with an average length PvP season, a 6 month beta that starts in March, puts it 3 weeks away from Destiny's release, and pushes it out of the (arguably) less desirable summer months.

-

[bluspacecow]

1. Earnings Call Announcement
-The comments on the earnings call about the bulk of the Blizzard releases being in the second half of the year make it extremely likely that WoD is being targeted at a Q3 or later release (July or later).

You should check your sources on that.

It wasn't the bulk of Blizzard Releases at all.

It was the bulk of Activision Blizzard releases being in the back half of the year. If you listened to the conference call that bit come out of a talk given by Dennis Durkin , A-B's financials guy.

He said that bit directly after talking about "them" (being Activision Blizzard) coming out with Call of Duty Online and Heroes of the storm later on this year. Last I checked Call of Duty online isn't a blizzard product. Meaning he was speaking about both companies major releases.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2002...cript?page=all

It's about at the 18/19 minute mark of the Q4 2013 conference call available at :

http://investor.activision.com

[Tiberria]

You should check your sources on that.

It wasn't the bulk of Blizzard Releases at all.

It was the bulk of Activision Blizzard releases being in the back half of the year. If you listened to the conference call that bit come out of a talk given by Dennis Durkin , A-B's financials guy.

He said that bit directly after talking about "them" (being Activision Blizzard) coming out with Call of Duty Online and Heroes of the storm later on this year. Last I checked Call of Duty online isn't a blizzard product. Meaning he was speaking about both companies major releases.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2002...cript?page=all

It's about at the 18/19 minute mark of the Q4 2013 conference call available at :

http://investor.activision.com

Regardless of whether they meant Blizzard Activision or just Blizzard, the statement still makes it about 90% that they are intending to release WoD in the second half of the year. WoW is their biggest overall franchise, so WoD would account for a very significant portion of their revenue, which makes it unlikely that both RoS and WoD could be first half releases and the large majority of the revenue/sales would be in the second half. It's possible, but very unlikely.

[Deleted]

From every aspect, mists of pandaria was a disgrace to the name of WoW. It didn't bring anything to the table. It took away what was good with WoW and left like an ungrateful little brat. And the people at blizz still scratch their heads and wonder what went wrong..... They will attempt to pull the plug on pandaria as soon as possible. Late march 2014 is the release date. April at latest.

What exactly makes it a disgrace to the name of WoW? Aside from a raid that you personally find boring? The only real problem is that Pandaren are a tough sell. Kind of sad that an expansion doesn't do very well just because people are narrow minded but oh well. Still, if you've got some actual complaints about the gameplay that'd be a refreshing change of pace. You're still incorrect that they're trying to get the expansion out faster because they want to pull the plug on MoP quickly as possible. They've always wanted to get expansions out faster. They didn't leave us with ICC for so long because they wanted us to savour a good expansion for a whole extra year. They just couldn't get Cata out fast enough.

As for the release I'm thinking May/June. That's 8 months of SoO without any new content, but it is nonetheless an improvement over the year of ICC and the 10 months (?) of DS. If that's a continuing trend we're looking at just 6 months of WoD's final tier.

[Dawnseven]

As for the release I'm thinking May/June. That's 8 months of SoO without any new content, but it is nonetheless an improvement over the year of ICC and the 10 months (?) of DS. If that's a continuing trend we're looking at just 6 months of WoD's final tier.

I'm now thinking June/July myself (significantly moved up from my previous guess). Though it's provided we see a beta announcement by the end of the month. I'm not going to feel so good about that guess if beta slips into March.

[CosmicGuitars]

My three estimations: June 24th, July 1st, or July 8th.

[Tiberria]

My three estimations: June 24th, July 1st, or July 8th.

July 1 and July 8 are both highly unlikely to be considered acceptable release dates. July 1 is a major holiday in Canada, and 3 days prior to a major US holiday. July 8 is the Tuesday right after a holiday weekend. If it gets pushed to July, July 15 is the earliest it would likely be released.

[Cebel]

July 1 and July 8 are both highly unlikely to be considered acceptable release dates. July 1 is a major holiday in Canada, and 3 days prior to a major US holiday. July 8 is the Tuesday right after a holiday weekend. If it gets pushed to July, July 15 is the earliest it would likely be released.

They release movies and shit on july 4th all the time. Because people are off and looking for something to do. It will have ZERO negative impact on their decision to launch or not.

[CosmicGuitars]

July 1 and July 8 are both highly unlikely to be considered acceptable release dates. July 1 is a major holiday in Canada, and 3 days prior to a major US holiday. July 8 is the Tuesday right after a holiday weekend. If it gets pushed to July, July 15 is the earliest it would likely be released.

I'm Canadian and I don't really think anybody here considered Canada Day a major holiday.

[Tiberria]

They release movies and shit on july 4th all the time. Because people are off and looking for something to do. It will have ZERO negative impact on their decision to launch or not.

Movies and video games are COMPLETELY different things. Movies don't require extra support staff available to deal with inevitable launch issues. Blizzard has a history of avoiding releasing even major patches the week before and week after a major holiday. Find a major Blizzard release that happened within 7 days of say Xmas/New Year's, July 4, Labour Day, Thanksgiving, etc. When 5.4 was supposed to be released Aug 26 and was delayed, they pushed it to September 10 instead of September 3, because they didn't want it released the day after Labour Day. It's about their staff and vacations, not about the fact people are off.

When considering likely release dates, you can rule out July 1 and 8 as August 26 and September 2 almost definitely. You can probably rule out September 9 too because I can't see them wanting Destiny and WoD released the same day.

[Blur4stuff]

i have a hard time believing they want WoD released in later summer or fall. their subs might have ticked up a bit recently, but if it takes that long we all know they'll lose another million or more. i'm sure plenty will come back for WoD, but once some of them are gone they won't come back.

[Treeba]

Movies and video games are COMPLETELY different things. Movies don't require extra support staff available to deal with inevitable launch issues. Blizzard has a history of avoiding releasing even major patches the week before and week after a major holiday. Find a major Blizzard release that happened within 7 days of say Xmas/New Year's, July 4, Labour Day, Thanksgiving, etc. When 5.4 was supposed to be released Aug 26 and was delayed, they pushed it to September 10 instead of September 3, because they didn't want it released the day after Labour Day. It's about their staff and vacations, not about the fact people are off.

When considering likely release dates, you can rule out July 1 and 8 as August 26 and September 2 almost definitely. You can probably rule out September 9 too because I can't see them wanting Destiny and WoD released the same day.

Dragon Soul was like 5 days after Thanksgiving. Generally you're right, but there are a few exceptions.

[CosmicGuitars]

Movies and video games are COMPLETELY different things. Movies don't require extra support staff available to deal with inevitable launch issues. Blizzard has a history of avoiding releasing even major patches the week before and week after a major holiday. Find a major Blizzard release that happened within 7 days of say Xmas/New Year's, July 4, Labour Day, Thanksgiving, etc. When 5.4 was supposed to be released Aug 26 and was delayed, they pushed it to September 10 instead of September 3, because they didn't want it released the day after Labour Day. It's about their staff and vacations, not about the fact people are off.

When considering likely release dates, you can rule out July 1 and 8 as August 26 and September 2 almost definitely. You can probably rule out September 9 too because I can't see them wanting Destiny and WoD released the same day.

Dare I ask why Blizzard, a company based in Irvine, California, would take Canada Day off? :P

[Krazzorx]

Someone will at some point wind up stumbling upon the correct release date. That doesn't mean said person was super smart and guessed "the correct reason" for why it was released that day.

For example, I could say "The Miami Heat won the last 2 championships because they have the hottest cheerleaders. Which is why they will win the NBA championship again this year." Now, if they win it this year, does that mean they won it because they had the hottest cheerleaders? Of course not. Common sense says so. But there's not a single thing anyone could say to disprove that.

Likewise, someone is going to guess the release date/ beta release date and give some obscure reason why they picked that date. But that doesn't mean the obscure reason is the reason why. More than likely its completely random.

[Dawnseven]

July 1 and July 8 are both highly unlikely to be considered acceptable release dates. July 1 is a major holiday in Canada, and 3 days prior to a major US holiday. July 8 is the Tuesday right after a holiday weekend. If it gets pushed to July, July 15 is the earliest it would likely be released.

I don't agree with the Canada Day thing either, but Independence Day is an argument considering it's a US-based company, and do I agree that July 1 especially is highly unlikely because of the holiday (July 8 too, but to a lesser degree). I don't think everyone can take a day off (the 4th is on a Friday this year and gives everyone a long weekend) 3 days after an expansion release with bug reports flooding in, hot fixes needing to go out, servers crashing (you all remember what it's like when a new expansion comes out right?). There's just no way they'd release on the 1st and then let everyone scatter. Actually, I don't recall even content patches ever being released the week of a major US holiday either.

[Dremall]

Until we get Beta and see where they are in the developmment cycle, any speculation at this point in time is purely conjecture. We only have some rough estimates, and past examples. Every Beta and expansion is its own beast with its own hurdles and challenges to meet. People might as well be reading tea leaves. I still think this Beta cycle is going to be shorter because of no new classes and races. How much shorter is yet to be determined.