Putin puts troops in western Russia on alert in drill 1.1

[Deleted]

Putins seat was never under threat.

There are a huge different between nobody can practical challenge Putins power and some can but likely to louse.

[Deleted]

There are a huge different between nobody can practical challenge Putins power and some can but likely to louse.

Yes like winning a game with 90:0
or 70:0 makes any creditable difference.

A good economy is better than having some cheap posing in crimea.

Unfortunately, logistics is still an issue, unless you invented the teleporter.

Come on. Stop being like that.

[Kellhound]

Nop soz.
The government agency of a nation directly involved in this isn't reliable at all.

You do not understand the difference between the DIA and the CIA, so your view is understandable.

[Deleted]

You do not understand the difference between the DIA and the CIA, so your view is understandable.

Spys vs military?

[Kellhound]

Unfortunately, logistics is still an issue, unless you invented the teleporter.

Depends on what you are transporting.

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Spys vs military?

The DIA's end users are their fellow service people, the CIA's end users are politicians, in a very basic view.

[Deleted]

They are mobilizing 100k soldiers in novorussi, do you know what kind of force is 100.000? They said they will train them now to be ready in the spring.

SIT THE FUCK DOWN AND DISCUSS PLEASE

If they need to mobilizing and not use volunteer then they are lost. Most people only want to try to live and do not want to risk the life to change central goverment of Kiev to Moscow, if they start to conscript they will turn the neutral population to a hostile.

[Shalcker]

Thank you. This answered a lot of questions.

I agree with you on Ukraine not necessarily having the might to deal with the separatists now, but if they are able to recover their economy at any time in the future this will be a stinging thorn in their side which they will be eager to see removed. In any case relationships between Ukraine and Russia have been soured for the foreseeable future, which in itself is not beneficial for either side. Do you see any way to repair relations?

Well, the problem is that Ukraine as it stands seems to be unable to recover without Russian support for years - especially while saying that war comes first, before their economy.
Despite all rhetoric and bans on Ukrainian (or Russian) goods Russia is still largest Ukrainian trade partner for 2014. Their entire situation developed for last two decades with assumption of constant preferential access to large Russian market. They can produce enough food to feed themselves and perhaps find some small niches in EU but most industries will contract heavily for long time leading to unemployment and unrest - and lower taxes.

There is also the matter of their industrial supply chains being tightly intertwined in industrialized East Ukraine. Zaporizhye steel factories unable to work without Donbass coal and ore, things like that can easily lead to local uprisings if solutions are not found - and Kiev cannot buy coal elsewhere and refit factories to use it as they have no money for that.
As another example, recently pro-Kiev "Aidar" guerilla unit blown up coal train as it was shipping coal from Donbass to Russia... and immediately got reprimanded by local Ukrainian governor as that coal was intended for Ukrainian-held part power plant that was build on assumption of using that coal. They have to ship it through Russian rail as there is no other way to deliver it, and they can't deal with DNR directly as that would be "dealing with terrorists"...

What Ukrainians seemed to want is swapping Russia to West for handouts. "West has better life quality after all, surely they can spare more support too? Especially if we shun Russia more! Bad Russia, not giving us enough!" I'd say this entire year was proof that it doesn't work like that.

Ukraine seemed like nice "prize" on paper - large population, industrial capacity, relatively big army, and decent market for European goods. Sadly, it looks like that relative prosperity was held by giant Russian subsidies. Now this arrangement crumbled and will have to be remade on new terms while Ukraine will be in much weaker bargaining position having lost Crimea (that was the only point that really mattered to Russia) and being replaced in gas delivery by future Turkish Stream (decision to remove Ukraine from gas equation seems to be final).

Obviously common Western mantra is "they have to reform and remove that dependency"; but as it stands they'll have to default first, and current government haven't even started any process of reforming worth mentioning despite being almost a year in power.

On the referendum - so although it is not an internationally ratified treaty, are you saying that it has no weight? At the very least this means that no other nation will ever willingly give up their nuclear weapons after seeing what happened to Ukraine. This cannot be seen as beneficial to anybody.

Well, by Russian rhetoric US also undermined nuclear non-proliferation by how they dealt with Iran and their various adventures in Middle East/North Africa. I don't think at this point any country will "willingly give up" nuclear weapons once they have them given current international situation.

If the country were the disintegrate, where do you think places like Odessa would fall? What would be the fate of Transdniester? Has the Russian media said anything about this?

In case of disintegration three or four-way partition is most likely - Lviv part going for "West Ukrainians", Kiev and surroundings being another part, and then from Dniepropetrovsk to Odessa going with local oligarch Kolomoyski at helm... and obviously Lugansk and Donetsk remaining separate.

The Treaty of Aigun is the only remaining unequal treaty in force. The Chinese are not happy about it, believe me.

Well, ~160 year old treaty seems to be hard to review now.

I think short-term goals like that will not change anything in the future.

The idea might be to break war fervour; and then once war drums will stop beating for actors there to turn upon each other for infighting.

[Deleted]

Yes like winning a game with 90:0
or 70:0 makes any creditable difference.

If you playing for the highest stake, would you be happy with 99% then you can make it 100%

[ringpriest]

People need to chill the fuck out dude. Both sides - sit on the table and discuss. If DPR and LPR had issues with the coup which should be obvious to anyone in here that coups are not good, they should have sit down and talked how they could have a legit government and not start killing each other.

I don't know guys if you are getting what is happening at the moment, but we might be going for a BIG ASS WAR in the spring. They are mobilizing 100k soldiers in novorussi, do you know what kind of force is 100.000? They said they will train them now to be ready in the spring.

SIT THE FUCK DOWN AND DISCUSS PLEASE

I agree with you 100%, but while the US continues to increase support for the government in Kiev, while ignoring peace talks and pushing new sanctions on Russia when things look to be possibly stabilizing, it seems pretty clear that the US government isn't interested in peace; instead the US is pursuing the both vile and idiotic strategy of letting Ukraine bleed itself to destruction, while hoping the chaos hurts Russia, too.

[Deleted]

If you playing for the highest stake, would you be happy with 99% then you can make it 100%

You never go 100% in a "democracy" you just dont

[Deleted]

You never go 100% in a "democracy" you just dont

100% possibility of winning the election not gain 100% of the votes.

[TooMuch]

I agree with you 100%, but while the US continues to increase support for the government in Kiev, while ignoring peace talks and pushing new sanctions on Russia when things look to be possibly stabilizing, it seems pretty clear that the US government isn't interested in peace; instead the US is pursuing the both vile and idiotic strategy of letting Ukraine bleed itself to destruction, while hoping the chaos hurts Russia, too.

Yes, that's why that article from the NY Times I linked earlier so funny: the hypocrisy in saying "we want to get to a solution in a diplomatic way", while at the same time arming one of the sides in the conflict.

[Deleted]

I say we give the area back to Greeks and call it a day.



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People need to chill the fuck out dude. Both sides - sit on the table and discuss. If DPR and LPR had issues with the coup which should be obvious to anyone in here that coups are not good, they should have sit down and talked how they could have a legit government and not start killing each other.

I don't know guys if you are getting what is happening at the moment, but we might be going for a BIG ASS WAR in the spring. They are mobilizing 100k soldiers in novorussi, do you know what kind of force is 100.000? They said they will train them now to be ready in the spring.

SIT THE FUCK DOWN AND DISCUSS PLEASE

This 100 times

[Deleted]

Yes, that's why that article from the NY Times I linked earlier so funny: the hypocrisy in saying "we want to get to a solution in a diplomatic way", while at the same time arming one of the sides in the conflict.

A diplomatic way honoring the national integrity and sovereignity of the nation of ukraine.

Ready to give russia a sweet free trade agreement in return.

[Deleted]

You do not understand the difference between the DIA and the CIA, so your view is understandable.

Maybe. I admit my ignorance on the various agencies.
I don't doubt the quality of the professionals investigating this.
I doubt the honesty of whoever turns them into propaganda.

[Anyael]

A diplomatic way honoring the national integrity and sovereignity of the nation of ukraine.

Ready to give russia a sweet free trade agreement in return.

It's too late the honor the national integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, unless you really think Russia will give up Crimea without a fight.

[Deleted]

Depends on what you are transporting.

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The DIA's end users are their fellow service people, the CIA's end users are politicians, in a very basic view.

Whatever you're transporting, having the option to use land transport other than sea and air is an enormous advantage.

[Deleted]

It's too late the honor the national integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, unless you really think Russia will give up Crimea without a fight.

I dont know depends on the Pricetag.

[Cybran]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/wo...o-advance.html

Batya barked a few orders into his walkie-talkie, then turned and said, “There will be loud noises soon.” Almost instantly, the company’s tank, parked down the road, barked loudly and the percussion wave rolled up the venetian blinds.

Batya said his troops had held this position for four months, but were looking forward to moving once the road to Debaltseve is severed. After that, well, that is another question.

In August, Russian-backed rebels troops routed Ukrainian forces around the town of Ilovaisk, obliterating entire units of soldiers, leaving about 100 armored vehicles in smoking ruins and reversing the tide of the war. There is talk now of “another Ilovaisk” in Debaltseve.

“We will win, I know that,” Batya said. “We will not accept to live with these Ukrainians any more. But what the world will look like after the fighting, really, I don’t know.”

At only one point did Batya’s mood sour, when he asked how Americans could support Ukrainian troops who were doing such things to his people.

“Do we look like terrorists?” he asked. “Do we look like Russian soldiers?”

He reached into his shoulder bag and pulled out a Ukrainian passport — “See!” he shouted — and then a stack of laminated ID cards, one for each of the towns in which he has fought, beginning with Slovyansk last spring.

“Every time we move to a new town, there are new forms to fill out,” Batya said, suddenly smiling again.

The Rebels are completely self sufficient and don't suffer from low morale and fatigue. They are fighting for their homes. You can't scare them with asset freezes or other shit like that.

A few yards away, Ira smiled again shyly, cradling an automatic rifle across her chest. On its nose was a grenade launcher carrying a shell called the frog, because it hits the ground, jumps up and explodes at stomach level.

“I saw what happened in Maidan,” she said, referring to the popular uprising that had unseated the previous, pro-Russian government last year. “I knew I was against the people who had come to power in Kiev.”

For her, she said, there was no choice. “I just had a feeling that something should be done,” she said, “And I thought, ‘Why not me?’”

Kiev needs a unilateral ceasefire and to get away from their land or the massacre will continue. Kiev will not win.

[BrerBear]

In August, Russian-backed rebels troops routed Ukrainian forces around the town of Ilovaisk

The Rebels are completely self sufficient

Interesting juxtaposition.