The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

[McNeil]

TBC fans will probably return in droves

Nope. If this expansion will try to bring the TBC crowd back it'll fail, hard. Almost all of my friends who played during TBC and quit after/during WotLK said they didn't have the slighest interest in this expansion, and have moved on.

My guess is back to almost 8 million for a short period, then starting to decrease again. Maybe stabilise at 6 million in the middle of the expansion, and ending it with around 5 million.

[Osmeric]

I don't know how to think about China and other non-NA/EU active account numbers. So... who knows?

[Chickat]

I have to wonder why people think SO many will come back when the historical data does not suggest that in any way.

statista. com/statistics/276601/number-of-world-of-warcraft-subscribers-by-quarter/

BC; January 2007 - Q4 '06 to Q1 '07 - Net Gain of 500k
WotLK; November 2008 - Q3 '08 to Q4 '08 - Net Gain of 500k
Cata; December 2010 - Q3 '10 to Q4 '10 - No net gain
MoP; September 2012 - Q2 '12 to Q3 '12 - Net Gain of 900k

Nowhere in the history of xpacs do they have a net gain of over 1 million, why in the world do people think subs would go from 6.8 to 8 for a net gain of over 1.2 million. It is just not anywhere in the numbers and people have too high of hopes. Sure I believe there will be a gain but not nearly as much as people think. Lets look at the raw data here folks.

Free level 90. New character models. Villains people actually care about for the first time since Wrath. A 1.2m gain could happen. The most I could see happening is 2m, and the worst 500k. So anywhere from 7m to 8.5m will be the number.

[searges]

Free level 90. New character models. Villains people actually care about for the first time since Wrath. A 1.2m gain could happen. The most I could see happening is 2m, and the worst 500k. So anywhere from 7m to 8.5m will be the number.

The free level 90 is probably your best bet as it has almost got me back into the game but still its an 'added' cost and I can't see it bringing a lot of people back in. New char models are fun but to bolster the sub ranks, probably not. Arguably the villain people cared about most was Arthas and considering that was in the 'hayday' of WoW growth we still only had half a million.

Like I said I do believe there will be a growth, it just won't be what people expect(maybe even me).

[Sierra85]

it'll go up dramatically and then fall after a few months. like it always does.

[Deleted]

yep will go up 1 sub, and that will be mine.......then it will go down 1 sub

[Deleted]

Free level 90. New character models. Villains people actually care about for the first time since Wrath. A 1.2m gain could happen. The most I could see happening is 2m, and the worst 500k. So anywhere from 7m to 8.5m will be the number.

I'm not sure the game is very attractive to new players at the moment. The lore is going to be incomprehensible and messy. PVP is unplayable for noobs.

I'm concerned that people will sign up, think "wtf is going on" and not really be motivated to find out.

[Deleted]

I think they will be back to around 7.5 million. That always happens if blizzard releases a new expac.

Much more interesting will be the quarter that follows WoDs first quarter. And if blizzard manages to bring content patches faster, as the consumption speed of content surely does not drop.

They already are at a point where they cant deliver content as fast as people want it. I think this is going to become worse every year.

[Gimlix]

8-10M cause WoD is damn popular and even MoP gained 1M and it was hated alot at start.

[Deleted]

8-10M cause WoD is damn popular and even MoP gained 1M and it was hated alot at start.

that's a silly post.....it's not even out

[Deleted]

that's a silly post.....it's not even out

I think that was sarcasm. Well.. it only can be sarcasm..

[BenBos]

I think that was sarcasm. Well.. it only can be sarcasm..

Actually, it was the reaction of a fan ... see his signature ... and it doesn't surprise me that the usual suspects have no clue about what fans of this game really think.

Your reaction is typical for a bunch of guys who think they know it all.

Surprise, surprise.

[Conscious]

8-10M cause WoD is damn popular and even MoP gained 1M and it was hated alot at start.

Mists was popular, yes. Gained a million, for sure it did well.

Then proceeded to keep the losing streak going shortly there-after. Unless something drastic changes I'm willing to bet less players will pre-purchase this time around, exercising caution.

Maybe 500k + ? Due to sales. Rest will be a drop in the bucket, still an entire quarter that will, as by Blizzards own admission, post additional losses.

Even an optimistic at best 1 million boost, won't do much to offset the numbers they're losing in the content lull. And thus the decline will continue with an expansion that's not even offering content on par with Mists.

[Deadite]

Actually, it was the reaction of a fan ... see his signature ... and it doesn't surprise me that the usual suspects have no clue about what fans of this game really think.

Nothing wrong with being a fan. I have to say that thinking WoD will bring in 3 million+ subs is going well beyond fandom. It is verging on delusion imho. If you look at his sig as you suggest you can see he is overly optimistic. He thought WoD would sell 3 million on day one and here we are months later and it is only half that. Subs will no doubt go up but not in the order of millions.

[Gothicshark]

The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

Current Subs are 6.8, the quarter including the Launch of Warlords will see an up surge of 500k Subscribers with a drop off the quarter afterwards of 700k.

This time next year there will only be 5 million active subs.

[hrugner]

Even if WoD picks up 95% of the people who left in the quarter running up to launch (assuming it's next quarter) you're looking at 7.6 - 7.7 at best.

I think WoD picking up most of the losses from the quarter prior to it's release is pretty realistic. Maybe not 95% of that group, but enough people who left earlier than that to make up the difference. Those folk stuck it out for a long time without any new content, so I think they'd be willing to pop in and check things out. 7.6 seems pretty reasonable, people guessing 10? I hope they're right, that would be a pretty impressive boost to the numbers all things considered; and that would be much more fun than the expected.

[Viadd]

We're really doing this shit now?

Yes! We're all opinionated know-it-alls: we have to offer this right now!

7.5 million, and the whole thing flames out and they drop to sub 5 mil before end of 2016.

And then they make it free to play.

[Gothicshark]

9 Million.

Why? Because if Pandas and Pokemon (easily the most ridiculed expansion!) could bring back a million, WoD could double it.

As a recruiting officer of a raiding Guild, I can say that there are tons of Level 85s coming back, those who skipped MoP because "Pandas Suck." I've been getting more, it seems, by the day, since they announced that they'll be announcing the Release Date on Thurs. I'd say returning 85s outnumber returning 90s, at this point....

I find the level of optimism to be excessive. Since Cataclysm launched the rate of loss has been a constant curve, sure the up surge with the release of MoP pushed the curve a bit, but the rate of loss remains constant. I expect the same level of up surge and then the loss rate will resume.

[Gourmandise]

The subs will be at a number I do not know, as I can't tell the future like so many others in this thread : /
Share your powers of time with me...

[BenBos]

I find the level of optimism to be excessive. Since Cataclysm launched the rate of loss has been a constant curve, sure the up surge with the release of MoP pushed the curve a bit, but the rate of loss remains constant. I expect the same level of up surge and then the loss rate will resume.

In an industry where every other MMORPG except WOW and the niche EVE went FREE to play in a matter of months, I find this graph fabulous.

The growth will be there with WOD and so it will be with the movie launching.

It is VERY clear that overall MMORPG play declined over the last 3 years while the SUBSCRIPTION based marked COLLAPSED completely in all those other Fantasy based MMORPG's.



The flattening of the subscriptions over the last year is already showing a trend UP with WOD launching.

Quite normal in an abnormal and COLLAPSED subscription based MMO market.

As I Always stated: the state of the industry is responsible for these long term changes as MMORPg play was no longer dominant as it used to be in 2004-2010.

I bet these times will change again ... as iPad play and other free to play thingies will show their limits.