My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will stop subscriptions and start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for.
My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will stop subscriptions and start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for.
Last edited by mmocd841b653eb; 2014-09-12 at 10:25 AM.
Mod Edit: Please add something constructive to the discussion.
Last edited by mmoc99cfbcce04; 2014-09-10 at 09:12 AM.
Why would WoW go free to play with 2 MILLION people still subbed, that's still a huge profit for Blizzard, the only time it would ever go f2p is when the sub numbers drop well below a million.
Why was SWTOR considered a success at 1 million, but WoW a failure at 2 Million?
Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.
Why do you have them at zero subs in 2016? Do you actually believe that? Even if they went "Free to play" they would still have a sub option :P
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By the way, math does not take into account things like "Hardcore fans" that will pay til server shut down, things like "People that don't care about 15$ a month" (you know, people that have jobs and are not in financial trouble, things like that)
You're a towel.
WoW will have 0 subs in 1-2 years? Hahaha!
This is exactly what's wrong with these graphs/charts people keep making.
This, I am one of those people. I'm very secure financially and $15 a month is nothing for me when it comes to my entertainment budget. I've been playing for so long, just stopping seems dumb, 10 years of my life is a long time, and I'll be here until they take the servers down.
Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.
Yea... no. Not really, no.
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His curve is somewhat accurate. WoD is predicted to lose atleast 3 million subs if the trend from cataclysm and MOP holds true. That puts us at atleast 3.5 million subs, with it most likely going lower. There is only evidence that sub loss will accelerate after the first month of so of the new expansion.
Cata - 2 million subs lost
MOP - 3 million subs lost
Wod - 3-4 million subs?
There will most likely be a stabilizing curve towards the 2 million mark however, with the 5th expansion only losing maybe half of WOD will lose.
Last edited by cityguy193; 2014-09-09 at 02:14 PM.
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Hey guys, I just made my own graph. Hope you like it.
http://www.destination360.com/north-...teway-arch.jpg
Infracted. Removed the [IMG] coding as well.
Last edited by Lochton; 2014-09-17 at 10:43 PM.
Except that things don't always work out that way. Most people predicted Apple Computer would be dead over the same kind of time-scale with a virtually identical curve applied to their stock price, product sales, etc. But look at what happened there.
Not everything in life is simple and linear and predictable. Sure, WoW might well go this route, but there's a chance that the downward spiral will level off rather than continuing to decline.
Sometimes what's old becomes new and interesting again (the trick is not throwing it away during the "it's old and busted" period), or it's possible that WoW will achieve such a huge critical mass of content that people are able to keep them selves occupied almost indefinitely. Or maybe Blizzard will get bored with it once revenues fall below "only" a billion dollars a year or something and they'll make a disastrous attempt to make a WoW II or something.
I don't know how it will go, but what I'm most certain of is that it won't be as simple as this graph suggests.
PF.
Guys i am a scientist and through my extensive knowledge and use of the hubble telescope it looks like as soon as they nerfed heroics in cata subs started dropping, coincidence with easy 5 mans in mob and dropping subs? i think not
Content drought is a combination of catchup mechanics and no new content.
Fair.
But I have an extremely hard time believing that Blizzard is going to make the game "bad." The community on the other hand, may be the only reason I'll ever leave this game. If the change from F2P has shown us anything it is this: F2P doesn't meant the death of a game (most games do well after going F2P and are more profitable than they were when they are subbed) but it is the death of the games community.
Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.
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And we can't know that this trend will continue. It's impossible to know if this trend will continue, especially if the 1 expansion a year comes true, which may very well boos overall sub numbers over a period of time.
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Unless the movie is terribad.
Everyone on the internet is a dishonest actor.
"Bad" is completely subjective to the audience playing. What was praised amazing a few years ago, such as raids only being for the hardcore, is now viewed as "bad" now. Lets say that WOD is completely catering to the hardcore, hypothetically, so all casual players leave. At this point, the audience only likes hardcore raiding now. In the next expansion, would it be better for blizzard to make only hardcore raids again, or to make casual raids too?
At that point, it would actually be detrimental to "fix" their mistake they made in WoD, because the audience they have left will actually leave. Because its been shown that player retention actually leads to more subs than new players or old players coming back, blizzard would be shooting themselves in the foot in what the community would consider "bad" at that point.
You can replace hardcore raids with whatever you want.
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But we cannot assume that the long trend will not continue, because that has never happened. There was never a sustained boost in subs for the entirely of the 2nd half of the game. The only logical thing is to assume that it will continue, atleast on the basis that it will be the most probable outcome.
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