NFL updates/news

[Pendulous]

He's not clutch when it matters. Which is, well, all that matters.

And it begins.

Can we say that Dallas' defense lost the game?

[Novar]

I don't think the Redskins are going to be able to beat the Seahawks in the first round, how many times have we faced Washington in the first round and one and done'd them now?

After that it's a toss up. I think the Niners would get us back at home.

[Grummgug]

I have a playoff formula for determining super bowl champs.

Cliff notes version: The Seahawks should win the Super Bowl.

long version:

I have two measurements for NFL teams:

1. Do they have a franchise QB?
2. Is their defense elite?

Pairing those two elements together is key to success in the NFL playoffs.

1. I tend to be generous with the term "franchise QB". Currently the following playoff teams have a franchise QB.

Broncos (Peyton Manning)
Patriots (Tom Brady)
Falcons (Matt Ryan)
Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
Redskins (Robert Griffin III)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson)

With so many franchise QBs in the playoffs, it turns out that defense is the separator. If the team with the best defense in the NFL also has a franchise QB, it is highly likely they will win the Super Bowl.

But how do we measure defenses? Yards allowed? Points allowed? I say neither. The true measure of a defense is how inefficient they make opposing offenses. How do we measure inefficiency? We do it by yards allowed divided by points allowed, or yards allowed per point (YAPP).

As it turns out, YAPP is a VERY strong indictator of playoff success. How strong? The data.

Teams that have both a franchise QB and have the best defense in the NFL playoffs, measuring by highest YAPP, have occurred 9 times in the past 13 years. In 7 of those 9 instances, that team has advanced to the Super Bowl. Once in the Super Bowl, that team is 5-2.

There exists a team in the NFL playoffs this year that has both. The Seattle Seahawks. They have the best YAPP of all playoff teams and have a franchise QB. Basically, this tells us they have a complete team. There are several teams with franchise QB, but only the Seahawks have the most playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks' defense is their separator. The odds heavily favor them to win the Super Bowl. They may not get the press, but this is the best Seahawk team in history, and I'd even say Russell Wilson is the best QB they've ever had.

Homefield doesn't matter. This team should roll.

Incidentally, there is no complete team in the AFC. There are some franchise QBs, but their defense as measured by YAPP isn't very good. People forget about defense. I think anyone could emerge from the AFC.

[Logonov]

I think this game is just another case of chalking up Tony Romo as the Player who's just not clutch when all is on the line.

[draynay]

the whole team has a knack for failing at the end of the season, at least they didn't get blown out as bad as last year

[Vetali]

I don't think the Redskins are going to be able to beat the Seahawks in the first round, how many times have we faced Washington in the first round and one and done'd them now?

After that it's a toss up. I think the Niners would get us back at home.

The way I look at it is our defense is prepared for the zone read RG3 brings and goes up against it 3 times a week. Statistically our d is much better. Even with that said it'll come down to the offense to close the game, which what today proved is they could despite the defense being torn up. Just like in the bears game.

[Grakey]

Vikings 2013!

All we have to do is the impossible.....for a second time.

However, its damn impressive that they even MADE it to the playoffs, after recaling where EVERYONE thought this team would be 17 weeks ago.

[Jibjabb]

I have a playoff formula for determining super bowl champs.

Cliff notes version: The Seahawks should win the Super Bowl.

1. I tend to be generous with the term "franchise QB". Currently the following playoff teams have a franchise QB.

Broncos (Peyton Manning)
Patriots (Tom Brady)
Falcons (Matt Ryan)
Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
Redskins (Robert Griffin III)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson)

With so many franchise QBs in the playoffs, it turns out that defense is the separator. If the team with the best defense in the NFL also has a franchise QB, it is highly likely they will win the Super Bowl.

So Im just curious. What about Russel Wilson makes him a franchise QB in your opinion while Colin Kaepernick is not? Is it their yards per game? Hmm cant be cause Kaepernick gets about 230 YPG as a starter while Russel is only about 195. Is it their TD to INT ratio? Nope, Kaepernick gets 3 INTs per 10 TD, while Russel averages about 3.8 INT per 10. Ahh perhaps it is there win loss ratio as a starter? San Fran has a 71.4 win % under Kaepernick, Seattle has a 68.6 win % under Wilson. Is it the QB Rating? Going into last week Wilsons was better... by 2.1 points. And it certainly isnt there past history that is making the difference since they are both in their first years starting

Homefield doesn't matter. This team should roll.

For a team that was 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road I find that hard to believe.

[Badpaladin]

Homefield doesn't matter. This team should roll.

Historically, teams that play at home fare better in the playoffs. It does matter.

[Pendulous]

Historically, teams that play at home fare better in the playoffs. It does matter.

I thought historically, 1 seeds do bad.

[dess]

So Im just curious. What about Russel Wilson makes him a franchise QB in your opinion while Colin Kaepernick is not? Is it their yards per game? Hmm cant be cause Kaepernick gets about 230 YPG as a starter while Russel is only about 195. Is it their TD to INT ratio? Nope, Kaepernick gets 3 INTs per 10 TD, while Russel averages about 3.8 INT per 10. Ahh perhaps it is there win loss ratio as a starter? San Fran has a 71.4 win % under Kaepernick, Seattle has a 68.6 win % under Wilson. Is it the QB Rating? Going into last week Wilsons was better... by 2.1 points. And it certainly isnt there past history that is making the difference since they are both in their first years starting.

Wilson inspires his whole team to do better. Kaepernick lacks that for his team.

And the niners got rolled by the seahawks, and i mean ROLLED.

[Skarsguard]

Wilson inspires his whole team to do better. Kaepernick lacks that for his team.

And the niners got rolled by the seahawks, and i mean ROLLED.

Wison isn't even a Team Captain which is odd because both Luck and RG3 are.

Seahawks are 1-1 with the 49ers and they almost got beat by the freaking rams and got beat by them earlier this year and are 1-1 vs the Cards IDK Seahawks are good really good actually but I don't think they are as great as most people on this forum think they are.

Seahawks have two good things going for it self great at running at great at defense guess what this is 2012 last year the two teams in the super bowl were pretty much last in both areas and first at passing which Seattle is last at or almost last at. Passing league so IDK I'm thinking either Broncos or Pats vs Falcons or Packers.

[Badpaladin]

I thought historically, 1 seeds do bad.

Couldn't find anything about first-seed teams, although I do admit I'm not being too diligent in my research (if you'd call it that).

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...layoffs/13014/

Link is to back up my previous claim. As far as first-seed teams go, I dunno. Last year's AFC top seed made it to the superbowl.

[Jibjabb]

So the year is over everything is decided its time to look back and have a little reflection time on how I felt the season would go in my prediction post I made in September.

My predicitons (Playoffs)
Division Winners: Green Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, San Francisco.
Wild Cards: Chicago, Philadelphia
Division Winners: New England, Baltimore, Denver, Houston.
Wild Cards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo

Clearly my Wild Card picks didnt work out so hot, Bills and Eagles being the most embarassing. All divison winners were picked correctly except for the NFC East where Dallas lost it on the last game to Washington. So all in all I think I did quite well there.

Standings Predictions: (Real record in parenthesis)
Picks that were spot on or close to? Had the Saints 8-8 (7-9) was very accurate into thinking this would be a down year. Had the Giants 8-8 (9-7) so smart deciding they would not be the dominant team so many thought they would be. Knew Atlanta would dominate the south with a 12-4 (13-3) record. Had the Chargers once again down and out at 8-8 (7-9) and got a few of the divison winners records close to their real one and some of the bottom feeders correct.

Picks that were way off base? I had the Vikings 3-13 and they ended up (10-6) so ouch that was bad, had Washington 5-11 (10-6), had Philadelphia 10-6 (4-12), had Detroit 9-7 (4-12), had Buffalo 10-6 (6-10), and had the Colts 3-13 (11-5).

So not so good there with some of those teams but I guess that happens every year. I like looking back at seeing what I thought would happen to what actually did happen. Wasnt so long ago that me and many others thought the Colts and Vikings would be two of the jokes of the NFL and look at em now.

[dess]

Wison isn't even a Team Captain which is odd because both Luck and RG3 are.

Seahawks are 1-1 with the 49ers and they almost got beat by the freaking rams and got beat by them earlier this year and are 1-1 vs the Cards IDK Seahawks are good really good actually but I don't think they are as great as most people on this forum think they are.

So, just because Wilson isn't captain that makes him less? Don't rate all three yet until their sophomore years, which will tell if they are franchise material.

The niners got a tied with rams 1st round and 2nd round were knocked-out. The cards need to get healthy and their QB off its diva run to make a good year.

[Novar]

The NFC West is going too be a very dangerous next year. The Rams defense is really scary and if they get a few more weapons then holy crap.

[Pendulous]

I think you first have to define a "franchise" player, because I have no clue what it means and the media never tells me what it is.

[Neazy]

So Im just curious. What about Russel Wilson makes him a franchise QB in your opinion while Colin Kaepernick is not? Is it their yards per game? Hmm cant be cause Kaepernick gets about 230 YPG as a starter while Russel is only about 195. Is it their TD to INT ratio? Nope, Kaepernick gets 3 INTs per 10 TD, while Russel averages about 3.8 INT per 10. Ahh perhaps it is there win loss ratio as a starter? San Fran has a 71.4 win % under Kaepernick, Seattle has a 68.6 win % under Wilson. Is it the QB Rating? Going into last week Wilsons was better... by 2.1 points. And it certainly isnt there past history that is making the difference since they are both in their first years starting



For a team that was 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road I find that hard to believe.

I like Colin Kaepernick but he hasn't played enough games yet to say he's a franchise QB. Those stats are nice but they're over 5 games versus 16 for Wilson, and Wilson even has those first few weeks of the season where he was not good bringing down his numbers. I'll give CK the benefit of the doubt, though. He's shown flashes of brilliance and I don't think Harbaugh would replace his proven starter midseason if this guy didn't have what it takes.

I think it's going to be either the Seahawks or Niners for the NFC, advantage Niners. In the AFC, I'll take the Broncos. I love the Pats and their beastly offense, but they're missing that something extra that makes great teams championship teams. Peyton Manning is playing to prove that he's still got it after missing last year. Tom Brady isn't playing for shit. He can lose in the AFC championship and go back to his super model wife. When you're as good as both of these guys are that little extra bit of motivation counts.

[Grummgug]

Russell Wilson can simply do it all. When he entered the NFL draft, there wasn't a single thing the scouts thought he could not do. He has a very strong arm, he's a field general, he makes great reads, he is composed in the pocket, he is AMAZINGLY accurate, with an absurd completion percentage in college north of 70%.

The knock on Russell Wilson was his height. He is 5'9". Most scouts will tell you QBs absolutely must be taller than 6 feet to get drafted high. If Russell Wilson was 6'1", he would have unquestionably been the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. He graded out way ahead of Luck or RG3 in everything else.

Scouts felt that because he was a little short, he wouldn't be able to see the field well enough in the NFL with all these big, tall defensive linemen. Plus, they figured he'd get his balls batted down a lot.

So Russell Wilson falls to the third round.

Boy, were the scouts wrong. As it turns out, Wilson has the perfect delivery on this throwing motion. He throws it high which clears the DL. And he can see the field very well.

Russell Wilson is a stud. And he will be a stud for the next 15 years.

[dess]

I think you first have to define a "franchise" player, because I have no clue what it means and the media never tells me what it is.

Basically means the team picks players that will carry the name of the team for a while, at least until they use him to his potential. Also has to do with the amount of money they can pay him, usually a cap so they don't have to pay too much in-case they end up hurt, out indefinitely, or end up stinking.