Archaeology - And all it's dusty little secrets!

[Ominouscloud]

No sir, 0.0001% = 1 in 10,000.

Go back to math class before you start erroneously correcting others. 10% = 1 in 10; 1% = 1 in 100; .1% = 1 in 1,000; .01% = 1 in 10,000; .001% = 1 in 100,000 and .0001% = 1 in 1,000,000

[ChaosWolf]

Minor nitpick - "The Innkeeper's Daughter" isn't just a flat hearthstone replacement - upon using it the hearth, it has a chance to summon a ghostly female dwarf that will follow the caster around for a short time.

[Rilancio]

Very nice guide m8,good job.

[lordzed83]

Nice guide. You should mention that no normal person should try 2 farm troll sword. That is if they don't have 50+ spare ours.........

[Kalcheus]

Page 4 and not a single comment on .02 dollars = .02 cents? *shakes head sadly*

[Artemise]

No sir, 0.0001% = 1 in 10,000.

Also, if you read the forums of mmo-champion and world of warcraft, you'll see that a lot of people have solved more than 150 and they still got no sword. Just a small percentage (and really small) lucky players got them before 100 solves. Personally, I'm in my 195 solve without getting the sword. From my perspective, the drop rate is definitely not 1%.

Pretty sure this has been stated in another post, but let's explain the Random Number Generator real quick.

Say you /roll 1-100 and want to roll a 100 (just like you want to for the T11 token...), this will be the basis of my explanation. Each time you /roll 1-100 you have a 1% chance to get 100 and 99% chance to get something else; however, the next time you roll you're not rolling 1-99, you're still rolling 1-100. Same thing applies here, whereas, each time you solve an artifact you have a 1% chance to get the rare, and a 99% chance to get a common artifact. The 2nd time you solve something the odds haven't changed. It's still a 1-100 roll (for the most part). Now let's consider that there are 15 total troll artifacts. so you're technically rolling 1-15 each time. Each time you solve an artifact the number that holds the sword changes, giving you exactly the same odds as the first time you rolled. SO if you want a accurate (fairly) chance of the RNG giving you the actually sword project:

100 / 15 = 6.667

So the chances of receiving the project is 6.667 no matter how many times you solve it, the project will remain at a 6.667% chance. This number will never get any better and will never get any worse. So please stop asking about a drop rate, because there isn't one. You just get screwed by RNG forever.

67 Troll artifacts solved, Zin'rokh is a hoax equal to the scale of man landing on the moon(not that I believe or disbelieve this). I Don't believe it exists.

Thanks for the guide. =) Greatly appreciate the time it took to write it ^_^. And i didn't think about the whole leveling with NE thing.

[Deleted]

So the chances of receiving the project is 6.667 no matter how many times you solve it, the project will remain at a 6.667% chance. This number will never get any better and will never get any worse. So please stop asking about a drop rate, because there isn't one. You just get screwed by RNG forever.

That is dubious logic at best - simply because there are 15 projects does not mean they all have an equal chance of appearing, much in the same way that bosses can have 1% drop chance items out of a loot table of 8 items (for example).

[phoenixbow]

Pretty sure this has been stated in another post, but let's explain the Random Number Generator real quick.

Say you /roll 1-100 and want to roll a 100 (just like you want to for the T11 token...), this will be the basis of my explanation. Each time you /roll 1-100 you have a 1% chance to get 100 and 99% chance to get something else; however, the next time you roll you're not rolling 1-99, you're still rolling 1-100. Same thing applies here, whereas, each time you solve an artifact you have a 1% chance to get the rare, and a 99% chance to get a common artifact. The 2nd time you solve something the odds haven't changed. It's still a 1-100 roll (for the most part). Now let's consider that there are 15 total troll artifacts. so you're technically rolling 1-15 each time. Each time you solve an artifact the number that holds the sword changes, giving you exactly the same odds as the first time you rolled. SO if you want a accurate (fairly) chance of the RNG giving you the actually sword project:

100 / 15 = 6.667

So the chances of receiving the project is 6.667 no matter how many times you solve it, the project will remain at a 6.667% chance. This number will never get any better and will never get any worse. So please stop asking about a drop rate, because there isn't one. You just get screwed by RNG forever.

67 Troll artifacts solved, Zin'rokh is a hoax equal to the scale of man landing on the moon(not that I believe or disbelieve this). I Don't believe it exists.

Thanks for the guide. =) Greatly appreciate the time it took to write it ^_^. And i didn't think about the whole leveling with NE thing.

This is only correct assuming that each of the projects have the same chance of appearing on each roll, which they quite obviously do not.

Think of it like this. Each time you get a new project a /roll is done. 1-33 is Common A, 34-66 is Common B, 67-99 is Common C, and 100 is Rare A. Just because there's only 4 projects does not mean that Rare A has a 25% chance.

[OlYeller21]

Say you /roll 1-100 and want to roll a 100 (just like you want to for the T11 token...), this will be the basis of my explanation. Each time you /roll 1-100 you have a 1% chance to get 100 and 99% chance to get something else; however, the next time you roll you're not rolling 1-99, you're still rolling 1-100. Same thing applies here, whereas, each time you solve an artifact you have a 1% chance to get the rare, and a 99% chance to get a common artifact. The 2nd time you solve something the odds haven't changed. It's still a 1-100 roll (for the most part). Now let's consider that there are 15 total troll artifacts. so you're technically rolling 1-15 each time. Each time you solve an artifact the number that holds the sword changes, giving you exactly the same odds as the first time you rolled. SO if you want a accurate (fairly) chance of the RNG giving you the actually sword project:

100 / 15 = 6.667

The only problem is that you've assumed that all of the troll artifacts have the same chance at coming up. There's nothing to prove that this is the case; quite the opposite, actually. You obviously have some understanding of statistics but the mistake nullifies your theory. Check out "Expected values" on Wikipedia for more info (I'm apparently to new here to link it).

When attempting to determine how many artifacts you would need to make before getting an artifact with probability X of coming up, you can calculate that very easily. What you were explaining was the difference between using replacement or not using replacement. When calculating the expected value, you may find that you should find the artifact on the Zth solve but that doesn't mean that the Zth-1 solve means that you have a 100% chance on the next solve to find the artifact which is the concept you were explaining.

I could calculate the expected number of solves you would have to do to get a certain artifact given the data but there's a few variables that I haven't read about yet. For instance, is recorded data taking into account that you can't have a specific artifact come up below a certain level? From 100 people submitting data, are 75 of them below level 100 or are 100 of them at level 525 (what % can even have the artifact come up)? Does a level 525 have the same chance to get a rare artifact as a level 515 assuming its an artifact that only needs level 500 to have come up (I would think that once you can get it, you have the same chance regardless of skill level but we just don't know)? Are there any other outside variables that effect the chance of an artifact coming up (maybe solving in Darnassus increases the chance that a rare artifact will come up next, maybe solving with keystones changes the probability of getting a specific artifact, etc.)? The answer to all of the questions, at least from what I've read so, is that no one has any idea so even if we had data, we would have no way to interpret it with any sort of statistical significance.

Edit: Just realized two people replied with some of the same info as me, above. Didn't mean to pile on.

[starkey]

great guide, but sadly this profession just isnt worth the time and hassle

[lyom]

>implying solving more than 150 and not getting the sword means the rate is closer to 1/10,000 than 1/100,000

In fact, it does not mean either. ;3 Solving more than 150 and not getting the sword can mean a rate of anything (save 100%).
0.00001 or however low it was is indeed an unnecessary exaggeration, very very few people would ever get even see it if that were the case. It might be 1%, it might be 0.1% if it's really low. Roll numbers between 1-1000 and see how often you get 1. Feels a lot like your solving odds? Well, and that's "only" 0.1.

[Izuria]

I recommend you add Deepholm Potions to your guide as they will significantly increase your speed.
Basically you have HS @ Thunderbluff. If some site is near the middle - HS, if it is in the north/south - use Potion -> portal to org -> portal to hyjal/uldum.

Nice guide hope my contribution helps.

[Psykes]

Some people asked for a complete list of rewards with their required skill levels to be solved which can be found on wowpedia.

[phayze]

No sir, 0.0001% = 1 in 10,000.

Also, if you read the forums of mmo-champion and world of warcraft, you'll see that a lot of people have solved more than 150 and they still got no sword. Just a small percentage (and really small) lucky players got them before 100 solves. Personally, I'm in my 195 solve without getting the sword. From my perspective, the drop rate is definitely not 1%.

I'm gonna nerd it up a bit.... I'm sure someone already posted this but I'll do it again. 0.0001% is actually 1 in 1,000,000. (because 1% = 0.01 and 1/10,000, you add the two extra zeros in there).

OK, back OT: excellent guide. The only thing missing is the Alchemy recipe. But otherwise very nice guide.

Edit: I noticed other people have done the math correction.

[Argroth]

I am almost positive that the Kaldorei Wind Chimes says more than just "<YourName> Holds his/her Wind Chimes to the wind" one time it told me i held it in the rain. So i think it maybe tells you the weather in case your from mars and don't know what rain is like or possibly for people who have weather effects down/off. It also can't be used "inside" in places like instances and such.


Also a question, if someone threw away/deleted their rare find would it not be possible to find it again on that character?

[Deleted]

Too much nonsense blabber and too few real info. If I wanna read something that claims to be entertaining, I go read a book.

[RyanRetnolds]

I was interested in Archaelogy but never really knew enough about it to bother getting started, so this helps.

However, I'm still confused as to a lot of things Archaelogy related that you never really went over.
When you dig something up, how do you get specific items? How would I get the Scarab Mount Sceptor for instance, or Zin'Rokh? What exactly do you get from a digsite, just random fragments? How do you go about "solving" and artifact, or getting rare items?

You should definately clarify these topics more in-depth

[Dbutcher]

Math failed me, true. Fixed before another nerd comes here and try to correct my first post.

[Deleted]

thanks for the ossum guide! very helpful! ^_^

[aggression]

I'm gonna nerd it up a bit.... I'm sure someone already posted this but I'll do it again. 0.0001% is actually 1 in 1,000,000. (because 1% = 0.01 and 1/10,000, you add the two extra zeros in there).

OK, back OT: excellent guide. The only thing missing is the Alchemy recipe. But otherwise very nice guide.

Edit: I noticed other people have done the math correction.

For a really good guide, I still miss average solves to complete one or another serial.