This just popped into my head while reading those "is wow dying" posts...
Product cycle. It's gonna end sooner or later, but thats not what this post is about.
Remember back in 98, we had Doom and Quake? Basically dominated the FPS multiplayer game, Quake was its prime with john carmack giving away his ferrari to the winner in a Quake competition. Quake 2 CTF and FFA matches , 1v1, the clan matches, anyone remember Death Row? Top guild in the world with Thresh the legend among Quake. Thresh also co-founded Xfire.
I believe Doom/Quake/Wolfenstein were among the first few games to be played in competitions like CPL Asia or gaming fests like Quakecon.
Then along came games that were seen as competition to Quake. Unreal being the more prominent game. Tribes as well with its fancy flying/sliding vehicles or whatever its called. They failed to topple Quake until a game called Half-Life came out.
Half-life spawned the ever so popular Counter Strike, completely changed the scene, and Quake was history.
Isnt it similar to how Wow is today? Dominating the MMO scene, top guilds gaining crap loads of fame, regardless of the reason. Many know who Kungen is, similar to Thresh, without the prize money, lol.
Then you have Unreal/Duke/Tribes, equivalent to today's Aion/AoC/Warhammer. It is rather similar isnt it.
And today we have competitions where WoW arena matches are played, much like the past.
Only question is, which game will be today's "Counter Strike" ? Will it be GW2? SWTOR?
I don't know if Wow is dying or not, we will never know unless someone hacks the servers at Blizz to find out the true number of active accounts (minus china). But what i do know is, Thaurissan-US on a saturday/sunday at around 7-8pm in Origrimmar, the population level is shockingly low. Probably 100 or so odd players? Compared to 2mths ago where you could hardly see a guildie if he was standing in front of you.
We may never know the numbers, but from what you can see with your own eyes, it is evident there is a decline in numbers.
Personally i'm waiting for GW2, and i'm hoping it will be the "counter strike" of this era (minus the immature brats).
disclaimer: this post is purely my opinion and no research has been done therefore dont get too worked up over it.