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Legion - End Game Rewards
Blizzard attempted to clarify how the random upgrade of items will work in Legion:

  • Every item has a base item level and those that can be upgraded are usually listed with a + after the number, such as world quests that reward 810+ gear.
  • When you earn an upgradeable item, the system rolls for a +5 upgrade. If it succeeds, it continues to roll for +5 upgrades until it fails.
  • The cap on these random upgrades is set globally, somewhere in the 850s before raids open.
  • After Mythic+ dungeons and the Nightmare Raid are accessible, this cap goes up to 895.
  • Items are labeled Titanforged when they are upgraded +15 item levels or more.

Originally Posted by Blizzard (Blue Tracker / Official Forums)
There's a fair bit of confusion around how item level of end-game rewards works in Legion - understandable, since we haven't really gone into detail about how the system works, instead focusing on high-level goals and philosophies. Let me take a crack at changing that.

Scaling vs. Static Item Level - "Anything Can Happen"
This came up in the first Legion Q&A a couple of weeks ago, but in past expansions, the endgame item structure has always been defined by a rigid series of flat plateaus. In Warlords, Normal dungeon loot was Item Level 615. Heroic dungeon loot was 630. Normal Highmaul was 655. And so forth. Once you had Raid Finder gear or better, there was zero value to items from dungeons. In patch 6.2, Tanaan Jungle only offered Baleful items that could be empowered up to item level 695. If you were a Hellfire Citadel raider, setting out to do Tanaan dailies (to unlock flying, let's say), there was zero chance that anything could happen during that play session that might make your character stronger. And in a game underscored by progression, that's a shame.

In essence, Legion changes those flat item-level plateaus into peaks that taper up to a global max potential item level.

When you earn an item from nearly any endgame source (dungeon, raid, world quest, PvP strongbox, mission, etc.), it has a chance of upgrading its quality. When looking at information on your rewards in sources like the Dungeon Journal or World Quest display, you'll see these items with a "+" next to their item level, indicating this chance to upgrade (e.g. the Dungeon Journal for Heroic Legion dungeons showing "Item Level 825+").

While there's a bunch of math behind it all, this may be a useful way of thinking about it: When generated, these items have a chance to roll a +5 item level bonus. If that roll succeeds, the system rolls again for another +5 bonus. If that succeeds, it rolls again. This process continues until an upgrade roll fails or the global item-level ceiling is reached. That's it.

And so, in Legion, even if you're a raider, if your friend is looking for someone to queue Heroic dungeons, you have an extra motivation to volunteer aside from pure altruism. You probably won't get an upgrade. But you might. Anything could happen.

"Titanforged" - What's the Deal?
Titanforged is just a label that applies when an item successfully upgrades by +15 or more item levels. It isn't really an inherent part of the system itself, but rather something we added midway through development to make it clear when you just got exceptionally lucky.

RNG, Progression, and Prestige
A frequent concern with the Legion item system is that the very possibility of a Mythic-raid-quality item coming from a quest or dungeon boss cheapens those rewards. But there's a huge difference between a single Mythic-quality item and a full set of gear of that quality. A player who mainly queues for Dungeon Finder and Raid Finder may end up with a couple of great raid-quality pieces, but that's a far cry from what someone who actually does high-end raiding will look like. Ditto for someone who casually queues for BGs compared to a top-rated arena player. After all, it requires far fewer lucky breaks for a Mythic Nightmare raid drop to make it to Item Level 895 than it would for a Heroic dungeon blue, by a huge margin. Your overall gear will still reflect the type and difficulty of content that you do, but a broader range of activities can be rewarding, and a broader range of players can have moments of surprise and excitement along the way.

Another concern raised in this thread relates to the impact of randomness on competitive progression. First off, the explanation above references a "global item-level ceiling" - that's simply a cap on how far any item can upgrade, and it's a value that will be set in relation to the highest available base item levels from the most difficult available content. Once Mythic+ dungeons and the Nightmare Raid are accessible, that value will be 895 (and that's the value to which the cap is currently set in beta). But for the first couple of weeks after launch, we're planning on having a lower cap in the 850s, since there is nothing available above that base item level. In the future, as new content is introduced, the ceiling will rise accordingly. Even the very luckiest person in the world won't be walking into raids and outgearing them on day one.

Finally, we're dealing with upgrade chances on individual item slots out of 16, belonging to individual characters out of 10-30 in a raid group. A single item won't make or break your raid's success. The law of averages suggests that raid groups that complete roughly the same amount of content will end up with roughly the same item level. We feel that the system will be a significant improvement to the individual gearing experience without harming guild competition.

My main question was - will Heroic and Mythic raid gear be able to upgrade past Warforged?
Since "past Warforged" just means "by more than +10 item levels over base," the answer to that is "yes."

Let me use some entirely made-up numbers as an example:

Let's assume that the chance to upgrade is 50% per +5 step to simplify the math. Clearly that is NOT the actual chance, as anyone who's been playing at max level on Beta can attest. But let's pretend that whenever an item drops, we flip a coin and bump the item level by +5 every time it comes up Heads. And we continue until we either flip a Tails OR the item reaches Item Level 895.

Let's consider three Emerald Nightmare drops: one from Raid Finder (835+), one from Heroic (865+), and one from Mythic (880+).

The Mythic Nightmare raid drop is guaranteed to be at least 880. We flip our imaginary coin (again, these are NOT the actual odds...). 50% of the time it'll come up Heads (woo, 885!), so we flip again. Again, half of the time we get this far (25% chance total, now) it'll come up Heads again (890!). And so we flip yet again, and yet again half the time we make it this far, we'll get yet another Heads (12.5% total). That bumps the item to 895, which is the cap, so we stop flipping coins and the item ends up at +15 over the base 880, which makes it Titanforged.

Using these hypothetical, made-up numbers, if you looted the same item from a Mythic Nightmare boss 8 times, you'd expect on average to see four 880 versions, 2 885 versions, 1 890 version, and 1 895 version.

Now let's look at the Heroic base item. That starts at 865, so you'd need to upgrade it six times (i.e. flip six Heads in a row, using our analogy) for it end up at 895. I'm not going to step through the probability tree again, but the 1/8 chance above now becomes a 1/64 chance. You'd need to loot 64 Heroic Nightmare raid items on average to see a single 895. The Titanforged chance (again, not the actual odds!!) would still be 1 in 8 (12.5%), since that just means 3 successful consecutive coinflips, but that would only bring the item to 880. You need to get much luckier to get all the way to 895.

Finally, our Raid Finder item. With a base Item Level of 835, it needs to upgrade 12 times to make it all the way to 895. Long story short, that's a 1 in 4096 chance of being 895. Let's say you get 2-3 items a week from fully clearing Raid Finder. You'd need to run Raid Finder every week for over 21 years in order to have a >50% chance of seeing a 895 item out of Emerald Nightmare LFR. By that time, we'll all be in item level 4000 gear as we play the latest Corgis Unleashed expansion on our VR decks (unlike the rest of this post, this part is entirely factual). But hey, you'll probably have that 895 Raid Finder item. Or you still might not. Still feel mandatory?

As this example hopefully illustrates, you're best off spending your time on the most challenging/rewarding content that you can tackle. This isn't destroying the foundations of WoW itemization and replacing it with massive randomness - by and large, players will progress through content of increasing difficulty and/or organization requirement, earning more and more powerful items as they go.

I'm going to assume that items can also roll warforged, for a maximum of 901? That's totally cool by me, but confirmation would be neato. Haven't managed to find an example of a high-TF WF item on beta yet.
Nope. "Warforged" as you know it in Warlords is gone with Legion, and isn't a separate system stacked on top of this one.

A "Warforged" item is one that got moderately lucky rolls (+5 or +10 over base). "Titanforged" kicks in once you cross the +15 threshold.

895 is the highest item level you will see while Emerald Nightmare is the active raid zone.

FEEDBACK: Darkbough (Normal)
Originally Posted by Blizzard (Blue Tracker / Official Forums)
The Emerald Nightmare raid zone is now accessible in Normal difficulty, with Nythendra, Il'gynoth, and Elerethe Renferal accessible. Normal difficulty scales from 10 players up to 30, and players must manually form groups to enter the zone. Player level and item level will be scaled accordingly. Please use this thread for feedback. We plan on keeping these bosses available for a couple of days.

Dominate Mind Temporarily Disabled in PvP
Originally Posted by Blizzard (Blue Tracker / Official Forums)
We have recently become aware of an exploit involving the Priest’s Dominate Mind talent which has been causing disruption in rated PvP. We’re currently working to fix that exploit, but while those investigations take place, we’ve temporarily disabled Dominate Mind in instanced PvP. Once the issue has been corrected, we will re-enable it.

ATTN Arena Competitors: Ladder Snapshot Delay
Originally Posted by Blizzard (Blue Tracker / Official Forums)
The 2016 Road to BlizzCon 3v3 Arena Qualifiers are set to continue later this week with North America Cup #2.

Before any open tournament, in order to seed our brackets, we take a snapshot of the ladder so that we can pinpoint where participants are in relation to each other.

NOTICE: We’re going to delay the ladder snapshot for Cup #2 until 2:00 p.m. PDT tomorrow - Tuesday, June 28.

Thank you very much, and we look forward to seeing you in the Arena this weekend.

Warcraft Movie Pre-Orders
The Warcraft Movie is available for pre-order, but not with an extended cut or director's cut. It will be released in October.





HeroStorm Episode 15 - Enemy at the Gate
Another episode of HeroStorm has been released



Final Boss - Retribution Paladin Spec Preview
Final Boss is back with a second round of spec previews.

This article was originally published in forum thread: Random Item Upgrades, Dominate Mind Disabled in PvP, Movie Pre-Order, Ret Preview started by chaud View original post
Comments 112 Comments
  1. davidcryix's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensa View Post
    I would note for the record that the description of your odds of upgrading an item is completely wrong. In the example they give, using the made up chance of 50%, they claim your odds on the 3rd roll is 12.5%. That is statistically false. If each roll is independent of the previous roll the odds of you rolling heads remains constant. You have a 50% chance of rolling heads on every role. The law of large numbers says over enough roles (say 1,000,000) that you will ultimately role 50% heads and 50% tails but you can roll heads consecutively for long periods of time during the process.

    What scares me the most about the system described isn't the RNG in of itself but the explanation because it appears to fundamentally misstate basic laws of probability. These are the guys that go up to a roulette table and see that red has hit 10 times in a row and think that means the probability that black will hit next spin has substantially increased when in fact it hasn't increased one iota.

    If you're using fuzzy logic to explain a system you have created the system is probably fuzzy too.
    Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.
  1. mmocfd328e0b6e's Avatar
    So many people will leave this game after one or two months when they realize they cannot beat the RNG.



    BC was the right way: When you could get end game gear (mythic warforged-socketed) on alternative routes without RNG (badges, crafting).
  1. merli's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by davidcryix View Post
    Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.
    This is basic probability and should normally be learned in high school. So you don't even need a college statistics and probability lesson.
  1. mmoc13291a7c6c's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhru View Post
    So many people will leave this game after one or two months when they realize they cannot beat the RNG.



    BC was the right way: When you could get end game gear (mythic warforged-socketed) on alternative routes without RNG (badges, crafting).
    Or people could just not focus on that RNG part and keep the loot they actually deserve from the content they got the loot from. This system is a little bonus upgrade, you shouldn't try to beat it or fish for it. If you do you'll get frustrated so I hope people will just get over that mindset and just play the game.

    This system is not intended for end game gear (the ceiling for mythic items is only 15 item levels above the base level, that's like warforged), this is intended for low end gear that could get a bonus.
  1. david0925's Avatar
    I don't have a huge issue with the RNG element: I did but got over it.

    What slightly concerns me are basically trinkets because those are more unique compared to other item slots.

    My understanding of the system is this: When tier 1 of raid opens (Emerald Nightmare), everything can roll up to 895. Then when tier 2 opens, everything, including items from tier 1 raids, can roll up to 910 (?). Is this correct?

    If it is, I can see the necessity of repeating old contents just so people have a shot at getting titanforged trinkets (with a lot of RNG layers). It just seems to me that it might be better if you can just accrue +ilvl upgrades "tokens" via rng instead, but that obviously comes with its own issues as well.
  1. gr4v3r's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Aelric70 View Post
    They would not be missed
    not by you, but I am sure Activision misses 10 million subs at $15 a month. I know seeing the bigger picture is hard for you
  1. Cazmosis's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by gr4v3r View Post
    not by you, but I am sure Activision misses 10 million subs at $15 a month. I know seeing the bigger picture is hard for you
    Woah, tell me more speculatory data used in conjunction with broad assumptions and unrelated conclusions, please. I can see how using bigger picture tin foil headwear is easy for you.
  1. dreadmist's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mhyroth View Post
    I'm still of opinion that RNG has no place in an MMO tied to Weekly/Daily lockouts. In Diablo you can farm your heart out as much as you want, aim at that 1 piece of gear you're after, in WoW this is not the case.
    It gives me, and a lot of people it seems, not more incentive to run that "old" content, but less, since the odds are so low to actually get an upgrade and we prefer to know the gearing path we take. There is nothing "fun and compelling/exiting" at running content for days/weeks on end and not getting that piece you worked for, while someone who barely logs in does end up getting it due to that RNG luck.
    Before this implementation people could farm badges, run Raids, and knew at the end of the day/week they could get an upgrade and work towards it. They had a goal to improve and get there as efficient as possible. Now you flip a coin and don't get rewarded for working harder as someone else.
    They wanted Blood of Sargeras to be a "reward" to show how much you play, well maybe gear should go back more to: the more I play and effort I put into the game, the better my rewards should be ? Seems they overturned their philosophy on different aspects of the game differently and keep swapping every expansion just because they want to keep it "fun and exiting" while it brings nothing but frustration and grief in the end.
    This is just my 2 cents and this is in no way a representation of what the majority thinks, but a lot of my friends do agree (and some here on forums) that this layer of RNG into RNG is not rewarding or fun at all. Hate me for all you like, but I expect people to quit over this eventually.
    A) RNG has been a part of the game from day 1. Everything worthwhile has a "chance to drop". If everything was guaranteed, you would do something once and never repeat it again...so removing RNG is a silly and ridiculous idea.

    B) You don't get rewarded for working harder? What on earth are your talking about? So mythic raiding isn't harder work than world quests? Normal mode raiding isn't more work than normal dungeons? Anytime you invest more time and effort on in-game activities, the rewards are commensurate. Having a casual get a single high level piece does not equate to them being decked out in said gear. No need to blow this out of proportion.

    C) Badges to upgrade your gear weren't available until the very end of the expansion (after the fervor of the progression race was long over). Try again.

    D) You can still run raids for a chance at upgrades. Absolutely nothing has changed about that aspect of the game from live, except Legion, if anything, has a HIGHER chance of an upgrade than now. How is warforged/sockets any different than possible item level upgrades?!
  1. Sensa's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by davidcryix View Post
    Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.
    gee...that's pretty snarky in its own right there my friend...I'm actually shocked that some minor stats could get under your skin to such a degree...which says a lot about you to be honest...

    but more to the point and to answer you and the poster above you to which you refer here's a lengthy article regarding the probability of getting a streak of heads 20 times in a row supported by some very sophisticated math:

    http://marknelson.us/2011/01/17/20-h...-are-the-odds/

    for those not willing to read it the author concludes that "So at last, we know the correct result. If you flip a coin a million times, you have a 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row. A long way from the certainty claimed by the New York Times, and a bit off from my initial 60% value".

    And contrary to the assertion of the 1st responder the fact that the rolls only continue if heads occurs on the prior roll does not mean that the rolls aren't independent of each other only that you stop rolling once you get tails OR hit max level. The odds of rolling heads on each subsequent roll remains 50% because the "roll" has no memory of the prior result and is otherwise independent of it as long as the condition to continue rolling (getting a head on a previous roll) is met.

    Now, obviously, Blizzard would never use a 50/50 chance mechanism to improve your gear because of the fact they understand that there is a 38% of "rolling" heads 20 times in a row.

    But not using a 50/50 system in reality does not alter the fact that the explanation provided grossly understated the possibility of maxing out the ilvl of a piece of gear using the system described.

    also see these discussion about roulette: http://www.kanzen.com/analysis.html http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...i-bet-to-black https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...4070128AAgjzHv
  1. davidcryix's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensa View Post
    gee...that's pretty snarky in its own right there my friend...I'm actually shocked that some minor stats could get under your skin to such a degree...which says a lot about you to be honest...

    but more to the point and to answer you and the poster above you to which you refer here's a lengthy article regarding the probability of getting a streak of heads 20 times in a row supported by some very sophisticated math:

    http://marknelson.us/2011/01/17/20-h...-are-the-odds/

    for those not willing to read it the author concludes that "So at last, we know the correct result. If you flip a coin a million times, you have a 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row. A long way from the certainty claimed by the New York Times, and a bit off from my initial 60% value".

    And contrary to the assertion of the 1st responder the fact that the rolls only continue if heads occurs on the prior roll does not mean that the rolls aren't independent of each other only that you stop rolling once you get tails OR hit max level. The odds of rolling heads on each subsequent roll remains 50% because the "roll" has no memory of the prior result and is otherwise independent of it as long as the condition to continue rolling (getting a head on a previous roll) is met.

    Now, obviously, Blizzard would never use a 50/50 chance mechanism to improve your gear because of the fact they understand that there is a 38% of "rolling" heads 20 times in a row.

    But not using a 50/50 system in reality does not alter the fact that the explanation provided grossly understated the possibility of maxing out the ilvl of a piece of gear using the system described.

    also see these discussion about roulette: http://www.kanzen.com/analysis.html http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...i-bet-to-black https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...4070128AAgjzHv
    I reacted the way I did because of your arrogant response, condescension, and pearl clutching "What scares me the most!" I honestly have no idea what you are even arguing here. I am not sure if you are actually even arguing in good faith based on your follow up reply because it is so far off base and irrelevant that it's difficult to even decide how to respond. But i want to try in case anyone reading this thinks that you have any idea what you are talking about.

    We aren't talking about a streak of 20 heads in ONE MILLION flips. We are talking about a single item that drops and what the chance is that it goes from 835(lfr) to 895 in one shot. Even using their totally made up 50% example it should be very clear to see that the probability of making it to 12 upgrades (60 ilvl / 5 per upgrade) IN A ROW to max out ilvl is VERY LOW. I'll wait here while you start writing out your H's and T's.

    You are fluidly interchanging the concept of probability, odds, and god knows what else in your argument but the fact remains that while the chance of each upgrade succeeding is 50% in our given example, the probability of it succeeding 12 times in a row is very small because all we actually care about is when the upgrade chain stops and we actually get the item in our bag. The individual chance of each upgrade is completely irrelevant to what we are discussing here. Each upgrade chance IS connected to the one before it because without a successful upgrade prior, there is no future upgrade. It's a continuous sequence.

    The only time that your article about 20 heads in one million flips is even relevant is if you earn several thousand upgrade chances via quests, drops, etc and all that actually describes is what the probability is that ONE item out of all those thousands of items fully upgrades to 895. News flash, the chances are actually not so bad and is likely exactly what they want. For an LFR person to get a real lucky break and come out with a mythic item. That is precisely why they aren't worried about people showing up in mythic raids with heroic + gear in all slots or the impact that will have on progression and why many people here are trying to explain that it would be silly to burn out running unwanted heroic dungeons and LFR "For an edge" because the chances are so low that you might as well use your luck playing the actual lottery because at least if you win that, it actually matters.
  1. Sensa's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by davidcryix View Post
    I reacted the way I did because of your arrogant response, condescension, and pearl clutching "What scares me the most!" I honestly have no idea what you are even arguing here.
    You're an awfully sensitive person then because the level of "arrogance, condescension and pearl clutching" in my post was either negligible to begin with or pretty tame by MMO-Champion forum standards.

    I am merely "arguing" that the example of odds they used wasn't entirely accurate and as such caused me mild concern regarding how well thought out the system was because, and this is pretty straightforward, if you can't accurately explain something it undermines one's confidence in your ability to design a system you can't explain. Nothing more or less complicated than that.

    Furthermore, as the first article on roulette points out (and hitting red or black is an almost identical 50% situation as to the one they described), the "lucky" streaks of multiple occasions where the ball would land on red or black consecutively 8 or more times in a row will even out over a million spins BUT you don't need to spin a million times to get such a lucky streak because the first time it could happen is in the 1st 8 spins.

    The article further supported the notion that each spin or roll is independent of other and on each new spin the odds of hitting red or black remain 50%.

    Casinos actually rely on the fact that the wagers people make in games of chance are influenced, as note in the article, by previous results that ACTUALLY don't have an effect on the outcome of the current spin or hand etc. The explanation they used to describe the hypothetical example essentially repeated this fallacy.

    As I said I don't really have an issue with the proposal per se but do with the explanation of it and was merely pointing out, for the record, that it may have been misleading. My apologies if pointing out this mistake was offensive to you.
  1. mmoc65d2b731f3's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnshadow View Post
    but they aren't because you stop flipping the coin after the first time you land on tails.


    Wouldn't that in fact mean that they are independent?

    Either way, every roll is 50% to get upgrade or no upgrade.
    Your chance to get 3 upgrade in a row might be 12.5% tho.

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