3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Iseeyou]

Called 150k so im not that wrong.

Q4/Q1 ll be tough tho. Depends on what blizzcon show.

[Zarc]

I re-subbed for one month only after accepting the 7 days of free play for players who'd been unsubscribed for 6+ months like 3 weeks ago. Am I part of this statistic? If so I imagine more did the same as I, and that the Q4 numbers might show a more significant dip.

But 7M subs is still really good. And I think I like many others will return whenever the next expansion hits. But this Casual-friendly content road Blizzard has opted to take will drive more players towards being casual, like me, a former raider. And as a Casual I have no need for a permanent subscription like I used to have. Kind of shot themselves in the foot there, imo.

[goblingirl]

Interesting. I'm sure the drop of 5.4 was fortuitously done just prior to quarter's end because anyone who wanted to see it had to re-sub for 1 month.

Even with the patch release and all the "kill Garrrosh" media buy, they couldn't keep it at 7.7 tho. Read between the lines of what Kotic said about 4th quarter and you see they are preparing analysts for a negative WoW 4th Q. I'm sure (anecdotally my server pop spiked a tiny bit for about two weeks as people did TI, then fell off the cliff again) they are already seeing people letting the subs lapse. And rather obviously they have no plans to release the next xpac before year's end (not that any of us seriously thought they could/would) because if that was true, they wouldn't be cautioning on 4th quarter.

I think the reason a lot of us watch this is because it doesn't feel like Blizzard responds to anything besides mass cancellations. They certainly have a track record of not reversing bad decisions until large numbers of people completely quit using a feature, or unsub citing it as a reason.

[Abysal]

lost 100k, and that is with the 5.4 end of quarter boost.

the non-gaap 9 month comparison is terrible. game only did 181m non-gaap in q3~!?

I'm not sure what's so terrible about 181m. I just looked Q3 09/10/11. They were 262m, 282m, and 274m and this was because when the game was 10m-12m subs.

They've lost 35% of their subs and 33% of their revenue from subs in those comparisons. Not sure what the big deal is? The only reason 2012's number was so high is because it included CoD elite which is now free.

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WoW doesn't really need to have huge profit margins. WoW is a major asset that gives Activision-Blizzard liquidity. So long as it doesn't turn from asset to liability it doesn't really matter if the net revenues are that high.

[But I Hate You All]

I'm not sure what's so terrible about 181m. I just looked Q3 09/10/11. They were 262m, 282m, and 274m and this was because when the game was 10m-12m subs.

They've lost 35% of their subs and 33% of their revenue from subs in those comparisons. Not sure what the big deal is? The only reason 2012's number was so high is because it included CoD elite which is now free.

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WoW doesn't really need to have huge profit margins. WoW is a major asset that gives Activision-Blizzard liquidity. So long as it doesn't turn from asset to liability it doesn't really matter if the net revenues are that high.

Well Wow been losing revenue every quarter while COD and Skylanders are making it hand over fist

[Sharuko]

Well Wow been losing revenue every quarter while COD and Skylanders are making it hand over fist

That revenue that WoW is losing is pretty much more in one quarter than most MMOs in the Western market combined during a one year period.

[But I Hate You All]

That revenue that WoW is losing is pretty much more in one quarter than most MMOs in the Western market combined.

And sadly investors and compainies don't car about that. It boils down to is it making them money or not

[Sharuko]

And sadly investors and compainies don't car about that. It boils down to is it making them money or not

And luckily for them Activision is making them money.

[But I Hate You All]

And luckily for them Activision is making them money.

Activision is a company. How long do you think they are going to let wow loose money before they do something?

[BenBos]

Well Wow been losing revenue every quarter while COD and Skylanders are making it hand over fist

Blizzard is more than WoW alone. Certainly by 2014.

Hearthstone will compensate MORE than the loss in revenue. It will be massively played as the first F2P Blizzard game by anyone even remotely in touch with Blizzard games, from China to Europe, from Korea to Australia and South America with 40 million ex WoW players as a tresh hold.

Blizzard's dota will do the exact same.

In fact chances are that Blizzard will regain the position in the group by the end of 2014.

So your arguments are too little too late by now.

Slowly Blizzard is turning its ship from being dependant on WoW subscriptions to games which use the WoW/Blizzard brand in new ways.

All these projects will be injected into a massively and HUGE potential Blizzard market.

Remember the 12 million PC copies for D3?

Hearthstone will break that number with ease.

[Sharuko]

Activision is a company. How long do you think they are going to let wow loose money before they do something?

Where are you getting WoW's profit margins from?

[Pann]

And luckily for them Activision is making them money.

The role that investors(shareholders) play in the day to day running of ATVI is vastly over estimated on these forums, it will be the board of ATVI that makes any decisions on the future of WOW and Blizzard.

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In fact chances are that Blizzard will regain the position in the group by the end of 2014.

What position are they going to regain?

[hrugner]

Looks like we did a good job guessing, good job us.

[BenBos]

The role that investors(shareholders) play in the day to day running of ATVI is vastly over estimated on these forums, it will be the board of ATVI that makes any decisions on the future of WOW and Blizzard.

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What position are they going to regain?

The position of having more than 37% of ATVI total revenue and so be the single most important identity as a game developper.

WoW + HS + Bliz DOTA + D3 expansion = probably worth 1.8 billion by the end of 2014.

[cityguy193]

Blizzard is more than WoW alone. Certainly by 2014.

Hearthstone will compensate MORE than the loss in revenue. It will be massively played as the first F2P Blizzard game by anyone even remotely in touch with Blizzard games, from China to Europe, from Korea to Australia and South America with 40 million ex WoW players as a tresh hold.

Blizzard's dota will do the exact same.

In fact chances are that Blizzard will regain the position in the group by the end of 2014.

So your arguments are too little too late by now.

Slowly Blizzard is turning its ship from being dependant on WoW subscriptions to games which use the WoW/Blizzard brand in new ways.

All these projects will be injected into a massively and HUGE potential Blizzard market.

Remember the 12 million PC copies for D3?

Hearthstone will break that number with ease.

Thank you. You never failed to make me laugh.
Posting to r/cringe again, you are loved there.

[twh]

When somebody kills your family and all your friends, destroys your house and everything you own, hurts you that hard you are not even able to sleep anymore because of the pain, and then this person doesnt even get in conflict with law, i guess you wouldnt really wish this person the best.
Or?

haha are you trolling? Or seriously comparing that with a video game's quality decline?

[pallyopness]

I can 100% for sure tell you that WoW is not losing money. You are a fool to think otherwise.

[Sharuko]

Thank you. You never failed to make me laugh.
Posting to r/cringe again, you are loved there.

There is nothing wrong with what he said. In fact, your response to him is more cringe worthy.

[Zenfoldor]

Amazing job to Blizzard. They really didn't lose as many people as nearly anyone expected. The game is in a better position moving forward than most would have guessed on this forums, this morning.

Haters gonna hate I guess.

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Activision is a company. How long do you think they are going to let wow loose money before they do something?

Wait, WoW is losing money?

Why would you assume that?

[pallyopness]

they aren't....it is a guy acting like he knows something....once again...they are not losing money and well above the break even mark and its not really close.