Putin puts troops in western Russia on alert in drill 1.1

[Deleted]

Well see, that's an option that's not grounded in reality because the buildings are occupied by secessionists that obviously have a problem with Kiev.

Your proposed option is one that is irrelevant with the question asked, in other words.

If you don't justify the seizure because you see Kiev as a legitimate government, you strictly don't agree with separatists seizing government buildings. Problems I'm talking about are from Kiev, not from separatists/Russia.
Even that "Under no circumstances does not justify armed seizure of administrative buildings, all problems must be solved only through diplomatic" isn't clear enough.

[Yesil]

Support for seizing administrative buildings =/= support of secession.

But since there's no report from July/August I guess it's impossible to convince you of anything.

A report made today compared to one made several months ago would be VERY different considering that a lot had changed since then.

[Deleted]

If you don't justify the seizure because you see Kiev as a legitimate government, you strictly don't agree with separatists seizing government buildings. Problems I'm talking about are from Kiev, not from separatists/Russia.
Even that "Under no circumstances does not justify armed seizure of administrative buildings, all problems must be solved only through diplomatic" isn't clear enough.

The question itself is based on that there is dismay with the government. Your option is the equalivent of someone asking "Do you think that seizing buildings in order to show diamay with the current government is a valid way of protesting?" and then answering "I like the Kiev regime". It's an unrelated answer.

[Deleted]

The question itself is based on that there is dismay with the government. Your option is the equalivent of someone asking "Do you think that seizing buildings in order to show diamay with the current government is a valid way of protesting?" and then answering "I like the Kiev regime". It's an unrelated answer.

There are reasons for justifying and not justifying the seizure. You can't compare it to any other question, that question is clear. One answer isn't.

[Deleted]

There are reasons for justifying and not justifying the seizure. You can't compare it to any other question, that question is clear. One answer isn't.

But your option is based on being completely oblivious to the dismay of the population, that's why it's irrelevant. "It's not justified because pigs can fly" is an equally viable option.

[Shalcker]

But your option is based on being completely oblivious to the dismay of the population, that's why it's irrelevant. "It's not justified because pigs can fly" is an equally viable option.

Basically, it's 30% people who think "Anyone doing anything Maidan-like, Kiev included, is wrong!", and 20% "Kiev is right, our seizures are wrong, Glory to Ukraine!"

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And out of so many millions there, the separatists were only able to recruit - in their own words - a thousand or so volunteers. So - that leaves...what? 10k? 15k? 20K?...fighters who aren't from Ukraine.

More then thousand was in Slavyansk alone, before they came to Donetsk. There were more volunteers but they did not have enough weapons for them, and various small cities are mostly defended by locals.

Recruitment reports are usually done by one group (as they don't have solid information about other group recruitment), and there are many separate groups operating there.

The majority of those fighting appear to come from Russia...with Russian weapons. Across a border that is suddenly so porous that even tanks and artillery can enter Ukraine. Which, of course, Russia isn't supplying because this equipment can be found in every back yard in the country.

And it is. There are HUGE stockpiles of Soviet weapons that remained in Ukraine after USSR fall that were supposed to last YEARS in case of conventional war, plus more is driven east from Western arsenals and so could be captured.

Any movement of heavy weaponry across the border can be detected by satellites, and no satellite proof of heavy weaponry have been provided by any side.

Seriously....reports from the UN and other independents suggest these rebels are little better than thugs.

As do Ukrainians; check recent criticism from Amnesty International on Lyashko:
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/Impun...ine-06-08-2014

But not when that will is directed by foreign troops patrolling the streets, torturing and intimidating anyone who doesn't agree and staging rigged elections to give thier presence a sheen of legitimacy.

But local troops torturing and intimidating anyone who doesn't agree with them is okay?

[gunner_recall]

Basically, it's 30% people who think "Anyone doing anything Maidan-like, Kiev included, is wrong!", and 20% "Kiev is right, our seizures are wrong, Glory to Ukraine!"

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More then thousand was in Slavyansk alone, before they came to Donetsk. There were more volunteers but they did not have enough weapons for them, and various small cities are mostly defended by locals.

Recruitment reports are usually done by one group (as they don't have solid information about other group recruitment), and there are many separate groups operating there.

And it is. There are HUGE stockpiles of Soviet weapons that remained in Ukraine after USSR fall that were supposed to last YEARS in case of conventional war, plus more is driven east from Western arsenals and so could be captured.

Any movement of heavy weaponry across the border can be detected by satellites, and no satellite proof of heavy weaponry have been provided by any side.

As do Ukrainians; check recent criticism from Amnesty International on Lyashko:
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/Impun...ine-06-08-2014

But local troops torturing and intimidating anyone who doesn't agree with them is okay?

And how the fuck do you know this?

[Shalcker]

And how the fuck do you know this?

It's first question in given link, about legal status of after-coup Ukrainian government:
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/mneniya-i-vzgly...4-143598_.html
For "acting president" 52% in Donetsk consider him straight illegal; 21% consider him likely illegal; 9.9% are undecided if he is legal or not.
Similar situation is seen in Lugansk.

Those 50% on another question discussed asked for diplomatic option and it wasn't given; and they had referendum after that that shown they widely support greater independence from Kiev (though not necessarily separation). Which also wasn't given or even offered.

[Deleted]

It's first question in given link, about legal status of after-coup Ukrainian government:
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/mneniya-i-vzgly...4-143598_.html
For "acting president" 52% in Donetsk consider him straight illegal; 21% consider him likely illegal; 9.9% are undecided if he is legal or not.
Similar situation is seen in Lugansk.

Those 50% on another question discussed asked for diplomatic option and it wasn't given; and they had referendum after that that shown they widely support greater independence from Kiev (though not necessarily separation). Which also wasn't given or even offered.

That's why I said that a lot of things changed since then. They were willing to talk. Are they now?

But your option is based on being completely oblivious to the dismay of the population, that's why it's irrelevant. "It's not justified because pigs can fly" is an equally viable option.

Of course it's relevant because the reason is mentioned for justifying the seizure, but not for not justifying it.

[Shalcker]

That's why I said that a lot of things changed since then. They were willing to talk. Are they now?

Well, they always said they are, it's just they are willing to talk if Kiev will withdraw all their forces first... which is highly unlikely.

[Crispin]

Any movement of heavy weaponry across the border can be detected by satellites, and no satellite proof of heavy weaponry have been provided by any side.

This one is quite impressive, some time ago you posted some satellite photos of quite poor quality, implying that it were proff that Ukraine shot down the passenger plane, shortly after Pentagon released similar photos that implied that Russians had in fact been firing missiles over the border and Ukraine forces.

Yet now you say that noone have delivered any satellite photos at all.


I also enjoy b2121945's stance of beeing neutral, yet can't seem to se Putin doing anything wrong, when he speaks of peacetalks, and line up 20k+ soldiers with material and send some into ukraine while 'pushing' for a peacefull solution, contradict much? While Putin seems to be fooling his own population quite easily, it is pretty darn obvious that his 'peace' talks will end up with a peacefull mission done by him, which in the end will end up with a referendum like Crimea.

He lost all credit a long time ago, heck the fact that he first denied that the 'green men' were in fact Russian soldiers, and then later on admitted it, is more than enough to call BS on any negotiations.

The west knows this, and Kiev does, there are 2 solutions, Putin either invades or Kiev will get control in the end, and if the first part happens, NATO will line up defenses in every NATO country close to Russia, and prevent Putin from pulling the same trick on them, and we'll see a cold war situation for many years to come.


Putin lost control of the situation a long time ago.

[Elim Garak]

The west knows this, and Kiev does, there are 2 solutions, Putin either invades or Kiev will get control in the end, and if the first part happens,

And not so long ago like half a year ago there was one more solution - diplomacy, offered by Russia from the very beginning.

NATO will line up defenses in every NATO country close to Russia, and prevent Putin from pulling the same trick on them, and we'll see a cold war situation for many years to come.

Ooh, so instead of ~200 of NATO soldiers per base there will be ~400? SCARY SHIT.

Putin lost control of the situation a long time ago.

Haha, Putin never was in control of the situation to begin with.

[Kellhound]

And not so long ago like half a year ago there was one more solution - diplomacy, offered by Russia from the very beginning.

Ooh, so instead of ~200 of NATO soldiers per base there will be ~400? SCARY SHIT.


Haha, Putin never was in control of the situation to begin with.

Even the most pessimistic NATO predictions do not have Russia winning a war against NATO. Yes Russia would be able to seize a decent amount of territory, but it would be pushed back and Russia's infrastructure reduced to 1900 level.

[Bakis]

Elim dont be so cocky, Soviet forces got raped by 3/10 the ammount of finnish forces and nothing changed since then in terms of the defenition of incompetence and you should be able to guess what that is

[Shalcker]

This one is quite impressive, some time ago you posted some satellite photos of quite poor quality, implying that it were proff that Ukraine shot down the passenger plane, shortly after Pentagon released similar photos that implied that Russians had in fact been firing missiles over the border and Ukraine forces.
Yet now you say that noone have delivered any satellite photos at all.

You seem to have problems with reading comprehension. All i said is that there are no photos of heavy weaponry (tanks, GRADs, etc) going from Russia to Ukraine over border. And as long as they do not exist anything heavy that rebels have has to be local, one way or another.

They just captured about 60-80 various vehicles in working condition after remaining Ukrainian forces fled from cauldron at Russian border after being shelled for several weeks.

Cross-border shelling might or might have not happened (it certainly happened from Ukrainian side, that was even confirmed by OSCE observers), photo looked more like harvesters going through fields, GRADs don't usually get positioned in such perfect pattern.

I also enjoy b2121945's stance of beeing neutral, yet can't seem to se Putin doing anything wrong, when he speaks of peacetalks, and line up 20k+ soldiers with material and send some into ukraine while 'pushing' for a peacefull solution, contradict much? While Putin seems to be fooling his own population quite easily, it is pretty darn obvious that his 'peace' talks will end up with a peacefull mission done by him, which in the end will end up with a referendum like Crimea.

Do you think in 150m of Russian citizens there are no 20k of people who would go to participate in that conflict regardless of Putin stance? Or do you think he controls each and every Russian? Or controls entirety of non-demarcated Russia-Ukraine border?

The west knows this, and Kiev does, there are 2 solutions, Putin either invades or Kiev will get control in the end, and if the first part happens, NATO will line up defenses in every NATO country close to Russia, and prevent Putin from pulling the same trick on them, and we'll see a cold war situation for many years to come.

Or we go in as UN peacekeepers, as we offered long-long ago. With or without Western participation. If you want to make sure those forces are not for invasion then go with us, we really don't care at this point. Even if it's half-Russian half-Western UN peacekeeping force, anything that stops fighting is acceptable.

[Ausr]

You seem to have problems with reading comprehension. All i said is that there are no photos of heavy weaponry (tanks, GRADs, etc) going from Russia to Ukraine over border. And as long as they do not exist anything heavy that rebels have has to be local, one way or another.

They just captured about 60-80 various vehicles in working condition after remaining Ukrainian forces fled from cauldron at Russian border after being shelled for several weeks.

Cross-border shelling might or might have not happened (it certainly happened from Ukrainian side, that was even confirmed by OSCE observers), photo looked more like harvesters going through fields, GRADs don't usually get positioned in such perfect pattern.


Do you think in 150m of Russian citizens there are no 20k of people who would go to participate in that conflict regardless of Putin stance? Or do you think he controls each and every Russian? Or controls entirety of non-demarcated Russia-Ukraine border?

Or we go in as UN peacekeepers, as we offered long-long ago. With or without Western participation. If you want to make sure those forces are not for invasion then go with us, we really don't care at this point. Even if it's half-Russian half-Western UN peacekeeping force, anything that stops fighting is acceptable.

There is no way Ukraine would allow Russians in as a peacekeeping force. It would have to be made up of neutral parties.

[malgin]

Elim dont be so cocky, Soviet forces got raped by 3/10 the ammount of finnish forces and nothing changed since then in terms of the defenition of incompetence and you should be able to guess what that is

Some new imaginary data mined?


It's very common for Western apologetics to spew an acid when you're out of any constructive arguments.

UN peacekeepers proved themselves as very brute force when they were handling Kosovo. /irony off

[Elim Garak]

Even the most pessimistic NATO predictions do not have Russia winning a war against NATO. Yes Russia would be able to seize a decent amount of territory, but it would be pushed back and Russia's infrastructure reduced to 1900 level.

Predictions are predictions. And one would expect of NATO to predict optimistically in public, that's what they are for anyway - to create a sense of safety in exchange for money. Same thing for 1900 level. Why not 1800 level? Why not stone age while we are at it?

Elim dont be so cocky, Soviet forces got raped by 3/10 the ammount of finnish forces

I'm surprised that that didn't change the fact that Finland was part of Russian Empire for how many years?
I'm just pointing out the irrelevance of your historical outburst

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There is no way Ukraine would allow Russians in as a peacekeeping force. It would have to be made up of neutral parties.

They already agreed with a condition for it being international.

[Kellhound]

Predictions are predictions. And one would expect of NATO to predict optimistically in public, that's what they are for anyway - to create a sense of safety in exchange for money. Same thing for 1900 level. Why not 1800 level? Why not stone age while we are at it?

I'm surprised that that didn't change the fact that Finland was part of Russian Empire for how many years?
I'm just pointing out the irrelevance of your historical outburst

Predictions are based on the known capabilities of both sides, and I am sorry but Russia is KNOW to not have the power projection capacity to actual seize and hold territory. 1900s = no internal combustion vehicles.

[Shalcker]

There is no way Ukraine would allow Russians in as a peacekeeping force. It would have to be made up of neutral parties.

In the same vein Russia will never allow NATO-based peacekeeping force, as they are clearly not neutral party here.

So, we can go together... or we can go alone :P