The link between Obama's departure and your increasing wealth

[Machismo]

Here's the big problem. I love tax cuts. Sure, I wish that the tax plan were much more simple, and involved deeper cuts... but it was a start.

Here's the real problem, it was horribly fiscally irresponsible to push the tax plan without also pushing the required cuts. We are not getting more wealthy, we are simply stealing money from future generations. Where are all the true fiscal conservatives?

[Rasulis]

If the Economy is doing great It's because of Obama.

If the Economy was doing poor it's because of Trump.


But in all seriousness there are many factors what helps the economy and it isn't because of one man. I will say though a large portion of stock market doing well is based on Trust and people do believe we have a current government that is pro business.

My fear is the economy is doing too well and that inflation will skyrocket, especially once people will have more money to spend thanks to the tax cuts.

At 2.1% in 2017, US inflation rate is still pretty low. The disturbing aspect of the inflation rate is that the increase in housing cost account for 80% of the inflation rate in December. So one component of the Consumer Price Index dominates US inflation in 2017.

[cubby]

Here's the big problem. I love tax cuts. Sure, I wish that the tax plan were much more simple, and involved deeper cuts... but it was a start.

Here's the real problem, it was horribly fiscally irresponsible to push the tax plan without also pushing the required cuts. We are not getting more wealthy, we are simply stealing money from future generations. Where are all the true fiscal conservatives?

The Greatest Generation turns out to be thieves in the night.

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At 2.1% in 2017, US inflation rate is still pretty low. The disturbing aspect of the inflation rate is that the increase in housing cost account for 80% of the inflation rate in December. So one component of the Consumer Price Index dominates US inflation in 2017.

Isn't that how 2006 started . . .

[SirBeef]

Here's the big problem. I love tax cuts. Sure, I wish that the tax plan were much more simple, and involved deeper cuts... but it was a start.

Here's the real problem, it was horribly fiscally irresponsible to push the tax plan without also pushing the required cuts. We are not getting more wealthy, we are simply stealing money from future generations. Where are all the true fiscal conservatives?

Welcome to the fiscal conservative movement started with Regan. Fucking over the futer for a short term benefit today.

[Rasulis]

The Greatest Generation turns out to be thieves in the night.

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Isn't that how 2006 started . . .

Maybe......

Except Banks are stingy with their loans right now. Unlike in 2006 when they were throwing loans at you. Despite the still low interest rate, getting a loan is harder than ever.

No boom in the housing industry. Developers act like they are still recovering from 2008. The only houses being built are for the upper middle class (700k - 800k). Very few are building starter houses (300k - 400k).

Since the developers are not building, supply is low. Even in Austin, 2017 was the fifth year in a row with housing supply at or below half of what most market economists consider “normal” or “balanced.” You would think the price of houses in the Bay Area, where the median price of a single-family home is over 1M, can not go up anymore. Well, it went up 12.5% in 2017.

We are living in strange times. Residential sales decrease and mortgage products went down in 2017, at the same time, supply of available house in the market also went down.

[Machismo]

Welcome to the fiscal conservative movement started with Regan. Fucking over the futer for a short term benefit today.

Fiscal conservatism died under Reagan, his supporters were just too stupid to every realize it. He may be the least fiscally responsible President we ever had.

[Shadowferal]

People who rely on the stock market as an indicator of the overall level of wealth the average American is enjoying demonstrate a complete lack of understanding about the economy, so it's safe to just ignore them.

Thank you.

[Xeones]

The title of this thread pisses me off.

What increasing wealth? Seriously what wealth? Wall Street doing good is completely and totally irrelevant when it doesn't translate into anything real.

The wealthy making more doesn't mean the rest of us make more.

[Vanyali]

No boom in the housing industry. Developers act like they are still recovering from 2008. The only houses being built are for the upper middle class (700k - 800k). Very few are building starter houses (300k - 400k).

This may be true in your area, but is not true in all. Where I live there's 8-10 new communities just within a 5 mile radius, and probably 20+ in a 10 mile. Sitting at 400k-500k, which is a starter house price here, with full solar generally.

[NM 156]

I just checked my bank account and my wealth did not increase. I'm feeling kinda robbed.

[unfilteredJW]

I never known him to ever pay attention to facts.

How quickly did your pants catch on fire after typing this?

[Zan15]

Link to the original article, which has links to back up the facts: http://thehill.com/opinion/white-hou...reasing-wealth

I found this article fascinating. The basic claim, is that the booming economy is NOT due to Trump, but due to Obama just not being president anymore. Do you guys agree? Do you also think that the only reason the economy is doing so well, is that Obama is no longer president? Or do you think like some, that the booming economy is due to Trump? Which side do you fall on?

According to the link:

The end of the stubborn economic lag of the Obama years is a signal event affecting the life every American. It’s not just the stock market that’s up, but GDP and job growth as well




Don't Know outside GDP last year vs GDP so far this year, Trumps performance is not too spectacular or abnormal vs Obama if you want to give trump credit for the first year.




GDP
Might be the only place trump Beats Obama first year handily because of the recession and the prior administration.

2017 - 1.2 3.1 3.2 (on track for 2.6-2.8% yearly)
2016 - .6 2.2 1.8 (Total Year 1.8%)
2009 Total -2.9%

Though Trumps performance is not too far from a few of Obama's years.
2015- 2.9%
2014- 2.6%
2012- 2.2%
2010- 2.5%

So his performance is at best, average vs obama and average vs historical norms.





Jobs?

2016 Jan-Dec Jobs created = 2.24m
2017 Jan- Dec Jobs created = 2.05m

9.3% lower then Obama last year.



Stock market

Trump 1st year: 19,887.38 to 24,719.22 = 24.1%
Obama 1st Year : 8,599.18 to 10,545.41 = 22.6%
Obama 2016 16,346.45 to 19,762.60 = 20.89%





Other indicators?
Wage growth is on the same pace this year as it was last to a little lower.
2/1/2016 3.2
3/1/2016 3.2
4/1/2016 3.4
5/1/2016 3.5
6/1/2016 3.6
7/1/2016 3.4
8/1/2016 3.3
9/1/2016 3.6
10/1/2016 3.9
11/1/2016 3.9
12/1/2016 3.5


1/1/2017 3.2
2/1/2017 3.2
3/1/2017 3.4
4/1/2017 3.5
5/1/2017 3.4
6/1/2017 3.2
7/1/2017 3.3
8/1/2017 3.4
9/1/2017 3.6
10/1/2017 3.4
11/1/2017 3.2



Not that i believe this is any indicator
Remember the Labor Force participation rate??? Those 42% unemployed???

Nov 2016 62.6%
Nov 2017 62.7%




His 2nd year will be the true test.
But then again borrowing 1.5 trillion dollars to prop up the economy.....lets hope it works.

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Look, you can deny that the stock market is up if you like, but nobody believes you that it isn't. We can all google the numbers. Some of us can look at our quarterly investment portfolio reports. The market is up, GDP is up, unemployment is down, consumer confidence is up, small business confidence is up, labor force participation is up. Pick a stat any stat, it's all good news. Nobody believes your lies.

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Obama factually never had a single year of 3% growth. He is the only president in US history to never achieve this basic metric of economic health.

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Prove it. Show us the math. The reality is, you are either not poor, or you are paying less taxes. It has to be one or the other, and that is a fact. If I am wrong, then prove it. Show me the math.

lol pick any stat.
Lets go with Labor force participation:

2017 by month 2017 62.9 62.9 63.0 62.9 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 63.0 62.7 62.7 62.7
2016 by month 2016 62.8 62.9 63.0 62.8 62.6 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7


You have a funny idea of what is "up"


Stock market?

Trump 1st year: 19,887.38 to 24,719.22 = 24.1%
Obama 1st Year : 8,599.18 to 10,545.41 = 22.6%
Obama 2016 16,346.45 to 19,762.60 = 20.89%

Woop 1.5% better then Obama's first year and 3% better then last year. YUGE. Somehow you did not notice a 21% bump in 2016 but 24% in 2017 is MAGA!!!



Unemployment/Job Creation:

Woops
2016 Jan-Dec Jobs created = 2.24m
2017 Jan- Dec Jobs created = 2.05m

9.3% lower then Obama last year.





Trump is basically performing to average at best.

[Endus]

The title of this thread pisses me off.

What increasing wealth? Seriously what wealth? Wall Street doing good is completely and totally irrelevant when it doesn't translate into anything real.

The wealthy making more doesn't mean the rest of us make more.

This is arguably the more important point. I got caught up in showing that, even on the nearly meritless grounds the OP laid out, their own argument doesn't work and their own sources, in some cases, directly contradicted the OP's arguments, but yeah, unless you've addressed the overwhelming levels of wealth inequality in the USA, stock market gains represent the rich getting richer, not the average American feeling their wallet get any extra padding whatsoever.

[Edge-]

not the average American feeling their wallet get any extra padding whatsoever.

That sounds like a problem for the "average American" who isn't investing in the stock market rather than paying down debts, trying to keep up with housing costs, battling food insecurity, trying to afford health care/medication costs, or trying to ensure their kids have a good education!

(/s)

Yeah, I always cringe when folks point to the stock market as if it has any significance to the vast majority of Americans financial status : /

[Zan15]

Can you not see that when Trump took over, GDP growth was trending down? Really? It's right there...see how the bars get smaller, then they get bigger? Really no?

The best part of this, is that it's happening even BEFORE the tax cuts. People said 3.1% YEARLY growth was a pipe dream, and that tax cuts could never stimulate the economy that much. We were told that never again would there be 3.1% growth, as that is unattainable in the modern global economy. Well, here we are. We are nearly all of the way there, BEFORE the tax cuts even happened. The left was wrong. Period.

Someone does not know how to read and create a trend line.....lol. Sad

[LaserSharkDFB]

Yeah, TJ's banned again, so we should just let this lie of a thread die an ignoble death.

[szechuan]

omfg... really? Did you all forget about how Fox News and other news outlets were screaming about Debt to China under the Obama era and suddenly all that Debt talk is gone.

Republicans were screaming about Debt for 8 years under Obama. Trump didn't do shit to remedy that.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Anyone notice how Obama took an economy that had a definitive DOWN trend line, a budget that had a definitive DOWN trend line, and after two years, it started to go back up?

I've said this repeatedly over the past many years, even before the economy turned around under Obama, I was saying this.

I said that two years in, you'd see the economy turn around and start to improve under Obama. And sure enough, my prediction was accurate. I don't believe two years is some magic number - it's just historically how long it has taken for a new president's policy to really start "showing" us how much of an effect it is having on the economy and the budget. The stock market saw a small bump when Trump was elected, and when the tax bill passed. You could maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe attribute those small bumps to Trump, but it would be kind of stretch since that's really just investors getting hopeful and nothing that Trump himself has actually done.

Trump has been a fat lazy sack of shit who sits around and twits all day. And this isn't just my opinion, many sources have now reported this from inside sources and leaks. Trump barely does anything... which might be a good thing for us. I'd say he could have just sat like a fat sack of shit for his remaining 3 years and done no damage, but the tax bill had his scent on it. It may have been written by the Republicans without Trump lifting a finger, but they put enough of Trump's vision in there that he would sign it without a single question.

So none of "Trump's" economic policies have even gone into effect yet. We'll see how the coming year treats the US, and make a judgment call then. But I get the feeling that we'll continue to see economic growth for another year... before another downturn. The bubble has been growing constantly and artificially for 10 years now. We're due for a bubble burst soon.

[Sunseeker]

Yeah, I always cringe when folks point to the stock market as if it has any significance to the vast majority of Americans financial status : /

And the sad part is: it should.

Increasing stock values of major corporations should directly translate into higher wages and better benefits, but they don't.
The Average American should be able to regularly invest in the stock market and see notable gains. But what the "little guys" see is usually losses (South Park nailed this).
Investment by large stock holders in a corporation should result in expansion and promotion. Workers should see themselves getting promoted, operating their own franchise while new workers are hired in to fill the spaces they left. But that's not what workers see.

The Stock Market NEEDS to be connected to the Average American, and at some point in the past, it was and not even that long ago it was (I'd say 30 years minimum), otherwise the Stock Market is meaningless numbers that Wall Street barfs out and everyone either ignores, sweeps away or generally treats like the vomit it is.

[Trifle]

And the sad part is: it should.

Increasing stock values of major corporations should directly translate into higher wages and better benefits, but they don't.
The Average American should be able to regularly invest in the stock market and see notable gains. But what the "little guys" see is usually losses (South Park nailed this).
Investment by large stock holders in a corporation should result in expansion and promotion. Workers should see themselves getting promoted, operating their own franchise while new workers are hired in to fill the spaces they left. But that's not what workers see.

That's a misunderstanding of how stocks work. If I buy Apple stocks for $1 million USD each... Apple don't get any of that money. The person I bought them from does. So why would employees of the company see any of it?

Stock value doesn't intrinsically have much (if any) bearing on the company at all. Basically the stock market is all about "feels" and doesn't always have much to do with reality at all.