2018-2019 NFL Thread

[Espo]

The Bills only got a 3rd round for Taylor.

I'm still on the 1st on Barkley, 4th on a QB.

100% agree. I still don't get why people think the Browns are "stupid" for possibly taking Barkley #1. He is, by far, the best player in the draft. And believe me, I don't value a RB more than franchise-changing QB. But this isn't the draft of 2 years ago. There isn't a Wentz and Goff waiting. There isn't even Mariota and Winston waiting. I'll fully endorse people throwing this in my face if I'm wrong, but none of these guys look that good. They all have serious flaws.

Why take a QB #1, and all but guarantee you miss out on Barkley, when there isn't a clear #1 among big 3 when you can take Barkley #1 and still walk away with one of the big 3?

Again, I really don't understand people wanting to give the Browns shit for going after Barkley in this specific draft. I didn't touch them taking a defensive player because I'm assuming people understand that the Browns defense really isn't that bad (not that extra help hurts).

[Grube]

I kind of want to see none of the QBs go in the top 5. There are players that are better, but QBs get overvalued when they will all have issues behind a bad o-line or no running game.

[Macaquerie]

100% agree. I still don't get why people think the Browns are "stupid" for possibly taking Barkley #1. He is, by far, the best player in the draft. And believe me, I don't value a RB more than franchise-changing QB. But this isn't the draft of 2 years ago. There isn't a Wentz and Goff waiting. There isn't even Mariota and Winston waiting. I'll fully endorse people throwing this in my face if I'm wrong, but none of these guys look that good. They all have serious flaws.

Why take a QB #1, and all but guarantee you miss out on Barkley, when there isn't a clear #1 among big 3 when you can take Barkley #1 and still walk away with one of the big 3?

Again, I really don't understand people wanting to give the Browns shit for going after Barkley in this specific draft. I didn't touch them taking a defensive player because I'm assuming people understand that the Browns defense really isn't that bad (not that extra help hurts).

All of the QBs in this draft have high bust potential though, so for a team that really needs one it's critical to pick the right guy instead of just taking whatever is left over. Now, I seriously doubt that the Browns have the competency to select the right QB whether at #1 or #4, not to mention that just having to play in Cleveland will probably drag down the performance of any rookie, but they at least have to give it a shot.

With RBs, you can still find good ones in the later rounds and it's the position where you're most likely to see some random come out and have a breakout year, but also where you're most likely to see a formerly productive player fall off the map entirely, so I can't see much urgency to spend a high pick on any specific guy. I remember in 2005 the Bucs drafted Cadillac Williams 5th overall, a draft in which GMs collectively lost their shit and drafted an inexplicable 3 RBs in the top 5. But he actually came out and tore it up, going for 100 yards in each of his first three games and looked like a budding superstar. Then the following week, he got completely shut down and, while you expect some bad games once in a while for a rookie, in hindsight that basically heralded the end of his productive career and he never really accomplished anything since then.

[Espo]

All of the QBs in this draft have high bust potential though, so for a team that really needs one it's critical to pick the right guy instead of just taking whatever is left over. Now, I seriously doubt that the Browns have the competency to select the right QB whether at #1 or #4, not to mention that just having to play in Cleveland will probably drag down the performance of any rookie, but they at least have to give it a shot.

With RBs, you can still find good ones in the later rounds and it's the position where you're most likely to see some random come out and have a breakout year, but also where you're most likely to see a formerly productive player fall off the map entirely, so I can't see much urgency to spend a high pick on any specific guy. I remember in 2005 the Bucs drafted Cadillac Williams 5th overall, a draft in which GMs collectively lost their shit and drafted an inexplicable 3 RBs in the top 5. But he actually came out and tore it up, going for 100 yards in each of his first three games and looked like a budding superstar. Then the following week, he got completely shut down and, while you expect some bad games once in a while for a rookie, in hindsight that basically heralded the end of his productive career and he never really accomplished anything since then.

Appreciate the response--good thoughts here. I guess where I'm probably at a bit of a different train of thought is the critical nature of the decision between the 3 QBs. I don't think there's any logic, analysis or information, period, that is going to help anyone make the right call on those 3 guys. It's completely a crapshoot, which is why I'd prefer to not turn down what appears to be a sure thing.

I'm totally with you on the observations of good late-round RBs being able to be found--ones that produce incredibly well. Where I'm stuck on my opinion (which I'll readily admit may prove to be wrong) is that Barkley is, without-a-doubt, the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson. I believe his level of talent and his upside is completely off the charts. He is of high character, has an insane combination of speed, quickness, agility, power and catch run inside, outside and catch the ball out of the backfield. He was the only thing PSU had on offense and still managed to make defenders look stupid all year.

I also think that it becomes more obvious to take Barkley, now that they've traded for Tyrod (and Landry, to a lesser extent). While Tyrod isn't amazing, he's good enough that teams need to respect him (at least a little bit), so Barkley won't be put completely into Barry Sanders levels of hell (at least initially). I'd throw in that what I really think they should do is trade the shit out of that #1 pick and rob someone blind, but this is all assuming they stick with their picks (they need to turn them into players at some point).

[Deleted]

The new Browns FO guys managed to get the paperwork in on time for all these trades. That alone shows they're a step up from the previous ones.

[draynay]

The argument against Barkley is that he would be one of the highest paid RBs in the league right off the bat. Its less of an issue with Cleveland because of their cap space, and with this trade I am leaning toward them taking him #1.

[eschatological]

The Bills only got a 3rd round for Taylor.

I'm still on the 1st on Barkley, 4th on a QB.

Taylor is a 5th round draft pick himself. It's the top pick of the 3rd round.

Think of this: The Bills got the 65th draft pick in the same year the Patriots got the 43rd pick for trading Jimmy Garapolo.

It's insane value. In Buffalo, we're shocked we got this deal. Tyrod was owed 6m on Wednesday, which is now totally off our books. No one understands how the Bills had the leverage to make this trade, seeing as everyone knows the Bills were going to part ways with him anyways.

[Deleted]

“Somebody who was at the restaurant” says that Kyle Shanahan dined with Richard Sherman and his wife at Nick’s Next Door restaurant in Los Gatos last night. With a rock solid source like that it must be true, right? Not sure how I'd feel about that but I think we could see some entertaining stuff from him if he managed to get a pick from Wilson.

[xskarma]

About the bust potential of these QB's, I think much depends on what kind of situation they end up in.

If a guy like Baker Mayfield, who's shown to be a bit (emotionally) immature, ends up in NY, he;d get eaten alive by the NY media and it would likely warp him, and probably not in a good way (Odell Beckham Jr. anyone? ).

If Rosen ends up on a team with a bad O-line and doesn't get better protection soon, his career might be done before it gets started or he might take the David Carr route and just never recover from the mental scars of having to run for his life every down.

If Darnold ends up in a bad coaching situation that doesn't teach him better ball security habits, he'll be a career back up sooner than later.


And that's just the obvious spots where it can go wrong. There might be hidden personality things and hidden game play things that scouts and front office guys have gotten into that we don't know, that might be terrible. Like, no one will convince me Josh Allen is going to work out with his completion percentage the way it is.

If I were the Browns I'd pick Barkley at 1 and Mayfield at 4 and call it a day, but the Manziel comparisons and the face of the franchise thing would probably make the owner veto it. I;d argue that you make BARKLEY the face of the franchise and let Mayfield do his thing in the back ground, but that's just me. I think it would work and I think Mayfield is the surest thing in this QB class, if you can manage to help him get some good foundation to learn to be a pro on, while he figures out his maturity. Being behind Taylor for half the season or more would likely help him in that regard.

[Macaquerie]

With the Browns, there's always the chance that this Tyrod Taylor situation will ruin everything, a la Kelly Holcomb or Derek Anderson, where he maybe has one good year which wins the hearts of the fans and relegates the rookie QB to the bench, killing his confidence in the process. And then the year after, Taylor reverts to form and the youngster is so demoralized he can't really step in either, and the Browns are back to looking for yet another QB.

[xskarma]

"The #Patriots are completing a trade for massive former #Browns 1st round pick DT Danny Shelton, sources say. He’ll be a ... big help."

Depending on what draft pick we gave up but awwwwwww yeah. Always liked this guy and we desperately needed a guy like him to clog the middle.

Not sure I like how close he is with the commissioner though

[MAGAmobile]

Sherman is undergoing a physical with the 49ers this upcoming week.

[xskarma]

Apparently the trade also contains draft picks. Patriots get a 2018 one and Browns a mid round 2019 one. Sounds like a patented Patriots low risk-high reward pick up of a player that's become redundant in his old team's scheme.

Still curious about what picks exactly have been traded along with Shelton. I suspect the Patriots picked up a 5th or 7th round pick, cause we were lacking a pick in both of those rounds and BB likes to have draft capital spread out.

- - - Updated - - -

Haha, literally seconds after I posted that:

"Updated via @Fieldyates and me: Browns trade Danny Shelton and a 5th round pick in '18 for the Patriots’ 3rd l-round pick in '19. And there it is, the fourth Browns’ trade in less than 24 hours."

So, Shelton + 2018 5th rounder to the Patriots in return for a 2019 3rd rounder. I like it.

[Espo]

Apparently the trade also contains draft picks. Patriots get a 2018 one and Browns a mid round 2019 one. Sounds like a patented Patriots low risk-high reward pick up of a player that's become redundant in his old team's scheme.

Still curious about what picks exactly have been traded along with Shelton. I suspect the Patriots picked up a 5th or 7th round pick, cause we were lacking a pick in both of those rounds and BB likes to have draft capital spread out.

Hahah. I remember when Shelton picked up the commissioner. Goodell aside, I thought that was cool--it's always great to see the raw emotion from the guys knowing that that the years of hard work have officially paid off.

On the actual trade though--I like this one. Shelton is an underachiever, for sure. But there's upside there and Belichick is a master at finding whatever upside that is and getting it out of someone. Pretty low risk on this one. Not bad.

[xskarma]

Hahah. I remember when Shelton picked up the commissioner. Goodell aside, I thought that was cool--it's always great to see the raw emotion from the guys knowing that that the years of hard work have officially paid off.

On the actual trade though--I like this one. Shelton is an underachiever, for sure. But there's upside there and Belichick is a master at finding whatever upside that is and getting it out of someone. Pretty low risk on this one. Not bad.

Belichick has traded for/signed a few Browns defensive players over the years with mixed results. Most recently he had LB Barkevious Mingo, who basically only played special teams and probably wasn't worth what we traded him for (4th rounder I think) but we also had DE JAbaal Sheard, who had a nice couple of seasons in NE after the Browns never really got anything from him.

Hopefully Shelton will get put on a strict weight program and gets improved from better coaching and can help man the middle in NE the next few years.

- - - Updated - - -

"And now it’s done: 49ers and CB Richard Sherman reached agreement tonight on a three-year deal, source tells ESPN. Sherman is a 49er." - Schefter


Took barely a day to complete. Wonder if this was a question of the Niners just flat out blowing Sherman away with their offer, Sherman being more interested in staying near home and sticking it to the Seahawks within the division or a little bit of both.

[MAGAmobile]

That was fast. Sherman is joining the 49ers on a 3 yr deal. Not sure about the amount, but I think it was in the $40M range.

Dammit xskarma beat me to it.

[Crackleslap]

Jesus. Sherman isnt screwing around, nor the 49ers. 49ers going to be real scary.

Seahawk fans got a lot to be sad about this past week.

[xskarma]

That was fast. Sherman is joining the 49ers on a 3 yr deal. Not sure about the amount, but I think it was in the $70M range.

Dammit xskarma beat me to it.

Sorry, you at least posted the contract length. I just saw it updated as 3 years, 39M with 5M signing bonus.

That's...a lot of money. Even if the later years are option years, he's still likely getting paid some 11-13M this first year alone. I doubt any other team was getting close to that. Patriots twittersphere was hoping that he'd still be interested in joining Pats if they offered around 7M. LOL Clearly not.

[MAGAmobile]

I have a feeling that's what Seattle was offering (roughly 5-6M) for him this year and he was having none of it. It's possible he could still be really good this year, but having surgeries on both achilles makes me question that.

[Deleted]

That was fast. Sherman is joining the 49ers on a 3 yr deal. Not sure about the amount, but I think it was in the $70M range.

Okay, I don't like the guy.

That said, I doubt he can stay healthy and $70 million would be more than 20% p.a. over the dreadful Suh contract. It would be almost twice of what honey badger makes - who might be a bigger upgrade to our pass defense - and who's being asked to take a cut. Really really hope that number is false.

edit: $39 million; still too much, but significantly less insane