PA-18 Election Thread: GOP Doubles Down on Identity Politics

[Dacien]

We had that, with fucking OBAMA. He wasn't radical, right wingers thought he was radical communist, even though he did nothing of the sort.

We really should get back to just the Pennsylvania special election. I don't want to be responsible for steering this too off course.

[draynay]

Yea, better get back on track before you say anything else stupid.

[Dacien]

Lamb declares victory.

Media and Saccone still unwilling to call.

[MAGAmobile]

Probably because its still too early to say you've won, considering the difference isn't even 600 votes with 2000+ absentee ballots that need to be counted.

[draynay]

It makes sense to claim victory, and it makes sense not to concede, so far nothing untoward from either of them, so far... If Saccone is serious about picking up and running elsewhere he probably won't make a big stink if he loses here and have it follow him to that race as well.

[Dacien]

Probably because its still too early to say you've won, considering the difference isn't even 600 votes with 2000+ absentee ballots that need to be counted.

I think it's a bit premature, and at this point, I don't even want to go to bed!

[Seiklis]

I think it's a bit premature, and at this point, I don't even want to go to bed!

At 2:30 Washington County is supposed to be done with the absentees, so if you've lasted this long might as well last another half hour

[NYC17]

My hope is that optimism on the side of Democrats or the anti-Trump faction means I can talk policy and politics again without being called an alt-right animal torturer who wishes school shootings would produce higher death counts.

Anyway, way off topic. More power to you guys if Lamb wins. This is a democracy, and if he wins, that's what the people decided.

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I'd actually love a truly moderate president for a cycle or two, just to let us all heal.

You should probably stop associating yourself with those things if you don't wish to be associated with them.

Victimization isn't the way to go.

[Gray_Matter]

At 2:30 Washington County is supposed to be done with the absentees, so if you've lasted this long might as well last another half hour

I think he should have waited but all evidence points to a victory for Lamb.

[Dacien]

At 2:30 Washington County is supposed to be done with the absentees, so if you've lasted this long might as well last another half hour

This is actually so crucial for Republicans, as everyone knows. Losing this after so much money poured in, after running as a cardboard cut-out of Trump, it's so damaging to the idea of the administration, to the right-wing current flow. If Republicans lose this, I think it will definitely be the receding waters before a Blue Tsunami. And that brings with it a whole new era in the Trump administration.

[jdbond592]

6-0 vs. Saccone never truly embraced me.

Trump is always a winner!

[Seiklis]

6-0 vs. Saccone never truly embraced me.

Trump is always a winner!

He could talk about the Tennessee State Senate race that the Dem got annihilated in. These are diverse times we live in but being an open atheist in TN politics is a bridge too far. Dem swing was less than 1% in a 70-30 shellacking

But unless something weird happens in Washington County with the absentees, this is a very bad night for Trump and for Rep. Rothfus (The guy Lamb is about to take on in November)

[Resurgo]

Don't want to stray the topic off course, but I agree. Thing is, though, I'm too stubborn. If the third party candidate is the one I feel I can actually support that is where my vote is going to go.

Normally, I'd fully agree with you. Heck, I voted for Johnson. However, because of that, I have to also take responsibility for being one of the ones that helped put Trump in office *sigh*

I could have voted the Libertarian that was on today's ticket. Screw that, I went with the Democrat just to be sure. =/

[Skroe]

This is actually so crucial for Republicans, as everyone knows. Losing this after so much money poured in, after running as a cardboard cut-out of Trump, it's so damaging to the idea of the administration, to the right-wing current flow. If Republicans lose this, I think it will definitely be the receding waters before a Blue Tsunami. And that brings with it a whole new era in the Trump administration.

The era where we take your President away from you.

Do you see the set up now? The grand plan is to double tap Trump and all he stands for. The first hit wipes out Congressional Republicans in the fall and makes Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House (ugh). The second hit has Republicans, blaming Trump for the wipe out in 2018 and likely the one they will face in 2020 (look at the 2020 and 2022 Senate map for Republicans), deciding to put down this national security incident-cum-disaster administration.

All those Trump supporters crowing about this or that vs Trump-Russia investigation have missed the point for well over a year. One of the very first things I said, the day after Trump took the oath of office, is that destroying Trump and all he stands for must be done at the RIGHT time, not the soonest time. And that means getting all the pieces in position.

Mueller needs to and will deliver. When? Some time between September 2018 and February 2019 would be rather ideal. But any time in 2019 is good too. All the pieces will not be ready - namely Republicans terrified about their future career prospects and Trump becoming even more radioactive - until then. Defeating Trump always required Republicans losing elections.

Until then, he must take his time and make his case so that when he drops it on the country, Donald Trump sees the last of his allies abandon him.

And make no mistake, even if Lamb loses (though it looks like he is going to win), that will be no comfort to Republicans in Congress, who caring about their jobs much more than partisans care about winning internet arguments, will be equally as mortified that a Democrat got within a fraction of a percent within a district Trump won by 20 in a swing state.

Tonight is a disaster for Trump and a ill omen for Republicans, no matter how its cut. Far from expanding the base, he's narrowed it, evidently by about 20% in this particular district. That speaks to the utter failure of Trumpism. The Tax cut scheme didn't work. The tarriffs didn't work. His behavior didn't work. Nothing he does has actually worked to make him a winner.

[Dacien]

The era where we take your President away from you.

Do you see the set up now? The grand plan is to double tap Trump and all he stands for. The first hit wipes out Congressional Republicans in the fall and makes Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House (ugh). The second hit has Republicans, blaming Trump for the wipe out in 2018 and likely the one they will face in 2020 (look at the 2020 and 2022 Senate map for Republicans), deciding to put down this national security incident-cum-disaster administration.

I've said for a good while now, I'll be shocked if Trump wins 2020. Even a far left candidate stands a decent chance. People are hungry for normalcy; the novelty of brash Trumpist speech and administration can't last 4 years.

All those Trump supporters crowing about this or that vs Trump-Russia investigation have missed the point for well over a year. One of the very first things I said, the day after Trump took the oath of office, is that destroying Trump and all he stands for must be done at the RIGHT time, not the soonest time. And that means getting all the pieces in position.

Mueller needs to and will deliver. When? Some time between September 2018 and February 2019 would be rather ideal. But any time in 2019 is good too. All the pieces will not be ready - namely Republicans terrified about their future career prospects and Trump becoming even more radioactive - until then. Defeating Trump always required Republicans losing elections.

Until then, he must take his time and make his case so that when he drops it on the country, Donald Trump sees the last of his allies abandon him.

I have to disagree on this. I think the information available indicates Mueller gathering up what he can, but there's no Trinity slowly descending on Trumporro, New Mexico. Obviously we're both speculating based on what we know, but I think it's going to be a disappointment if anyone is expecting a criminal collusion indictment for anyone in the Trump camp. Obstruction? Different deal altogether, and I'm not nearly as confident.

And make no mistake, even if Lamb loses (though it looks like he is going to win), that will be no comfort to Republicans in Congress, who caring about their jobs much more than partisans care about winning internet arguments, will be equally as mortified that a Democrat got within a fraction of a percent within a district Trump won by 20 in a swing state.

Tonight is a disaster for Trump and a ill omen for Republicans, no matter how its cut. Far from expanding the base, he's narrowed it, evidently by about 20% in this particular district. That speaks to the utter failure of Trumpism. The Tax cut scheme didn't work. The tarriffs didn't work. His behavior didn't work. Nothing he does has actually worked to make him a winner.

I absolutely agree. A Lamb win is catastrophic for Republicans and portends calamity in November.

[Omega10]

My hope is that optimism on the side of Democrats or the anti-Trump faction means I can talk policy and politics again without being called an alt-right animal torturer who wishes school shootings would produce higher death counts.

Anyway, way off topic. More power to you guys if Lamb wins. This is a democracy, and if he wins, that's what the people decided.

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I'd actually love a truly moderate president for a cycle or two, just to let us all heal.

Americans would never vote for a truly moderate president, nor an honest one. For whatever reason, Americans just seem to hate these qualities in their politicians

[Skroe]

I've said for a good while now, I'll be shocked if Trump wins 2020. Even a far left candidate stands a decent chance. People are hungry for normalcy; the novelty of brash Trumpist speech and administration can't last 4 years.

Trump won't make it to 2020.

I have to disagree on this. I think the information available indicates Mueller gathering up what he can, but there's no Trinity slowly descending on Trumporro, New Mexico. Obviously we're both speculating based on what we know, but I think it's going to be a disappointment if anyone is expecting a criminal collusion indictment for anyone in the Trump camp. Obstruction? Different deal altogether, and I'm not nearly as confident.

I've said for the past year, that I believe Trump will go down for obustriction of justice (and not just one episode, but a pattern of behavior) and that "collusion"... non-colloquially, conspiracy, will be something historians will debate, like how we debate what FDR knew before Pearl Harbor, and what Reagan knew about Iran Contra. I would be shocked if Trump gets indicted with conspiracy, but maybe Mueller will try.

But that being said, I think Jared and possibly Fredo Trump are toast. Particularly Jared. The indictment of the Russians late last month basically laid out a clear path to indicting Jared. Jared and the Russians had significant overlap in responsibilities. And who knows what American SIGINT has.

If you're counting on nobody in Trump's orbit to go down for, colloquially "collusion", you're kidding yourself. Mueller clearly has his target on certain key individuals.

I absolutely agree. A Lamb win is catastrophic for Republicans and portends calamity in November.

My point is, win or lose for Lamb, this is a catastrophe. It's too close for Republicans any which way. This district is getting carved up in the fall, so they will be facing "Representative Lamb" either now or later, and one less Republican.

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Americans would never vote for a truly moderate president, nor an honest one. For whatever reason, Americans just seem to hate these qualities in their politicians

The problem is that since World War II, the Presidency's grown too powerful and since 2006, Congress has rapidly forefeited it's oversight abilities.

Everything you need to know about the current state of American political dynamics comes down to this: We're years into what is, from a legal perspective, a highly illegal war against ISIS. Congress, Barack Obama and Donald Trump all, together, are breaking the law on an ongoing basis. There is no legitimate Authorization for Use of Military Force versus ISIS, as required by the War Powers Act. Instead, both Administrations relied on extremely liberal readings of the post 9/11 counter Al Qaeda AUMF, which of course, referenced specifically, the Al Qaeda Central organization that existed then and barely exists now, and which certainly isn't ISIS.

But Congress didn't and doesn't want to vote on a new AUMF, because that would mean people putting their name to something they can't bullshit away, even though one against ISIS is a slam dunk. Why is that? Not often discussed is the historic turn-over in Congress since 2006. For all the talk of "term limits", that would be a joke because it's been a historically ultra-fast changing of the guard. People's "Aye" vote for the Iraq War, and then again for the Libya conflict, destroyed careers. Congress doesn't want votes that can be weaponized against them right now.

So before we start talking about "moderate Presidents", we need to talk about the people there actually following their constitutional and legally defined roles. Congress must pass a budget, every year. Period. Congress must observe 60 vote thresholds for nominees. Congress must hold hearings. THe President must not be able to invoke executive privilege as freely as it does. Signing statements must be invalid. Non-Enforcement of laws passed by Congress because the executive disagrees must not be a thing.

This is not an anti-Trump thing. Obama did all of this too. So did Democrats. Hell, it was Harry Reid who first pulled the nuclear option trigger.

Laws and rules come from Congress, period. Budgets come from Congress period. Unless veto'd by a President at the time of passing, Presidents are bound to them. Following that simple fact would go a long way to making our democracy functional then. The shithole we're in started because weak and cowardly Americans, elected to office, decided there was wiggle room and nuance into rules where there clearly wasn't any, simply because they didn't like them.

We are a country of laws, not men, and it doesn't fucking matter what a President or a Congressman's goddamn wishes on the matter are. If they don't like the law, as written, then change the law. But the rules, votes, the regular order, must all be followed.

[CostinR]

People's "Aye" vote for the Iraq War, and then again for the Libya conflict,

Wait a second here @Skroe, when did the US congress vote for Libya? European parliaments did and there was hell to pay for it, especially in France, but I don't recall Congress ever giving Obama the authority.

Which means that Libya was an illegal intervention.

[-aiko-]

What's the hold up? Mama bear needs sleeeeeeeep

[Skroe]

Wait a second here @Skroe, when did the US congress vote for Libya? European parliaments did and there was hell to pay for it, especially in France, but I don't recall Congress ever giving Obama the authority.

Which means that Libya was an illegal intervention.

Oh yes my mistake. Confusing myself.

There was no AUMF for Libya.

https://fas.org/irp/agency/doj/olc/libya.pdf
(official document from he office of legal counsel)

" The President had the constitutional authority to direct the use of military force in Libya because
he could reasonably determine that such use of force was in the national interest.
Prior congressional approval was not constitutionally required to use military force in the limited
operations under consideration. "

Rules... they are for other people.

But you get my point. If you want another "hard vote" people paid for, try the entirely necessary post-2008 Financial Crisis bailouts (namely TARP, and to a lesser degree the Obama Stimulus in early 2009).