Mafia 109 - Game Thread - Russian Roulette

[Dendrek]

That's an interesting interpretation, Veredyn. Granted, you're still newish to mafia (I know you've played in the past, but it was a small community so I can't imagine the dynamic and variety was anything compared to this). That newness might explain why you think someone who is scum hunting is scummy for scum hunting. But it is a weird perspective to have.

[Lysah]

This entire game day can basically be summarized like this

I'm asking people questions guys! Look at how much I'm posting! I must 100% be town because there is no way scum would ever do this! Isn't that right guys!? Guys? Hey guys!!! Guys!?!?

Not that I don't appreciate you not letting the thread just go quiet like it usually does, but the argument that you are surely town because you are posting a lot doesn't really hold up. I believe I already pointed out how easy it is for scum to scum hunt when they can literally point at anyone and not care, even their own teammates if they wanted.

[Dendrek]

This game is setup to the extreme in scum's favor. Unless there are other mechanics that seriously shift the balance towards town, we cannot win if we're complacent. So I'm dreadfully sorry for trying to win. Please, Lysah, take over and show us how it's supposed to be done.

2 mislynches. Lysah. 2 more. And scum win unless night actions somehow save us. Even worse, the scum have reasonably high odds of being able to get a mislynch just by randomly voting on town. So even if we knew who every one of the scum was right now, that still would not guarantee us a win.

So, again, Lysah... show us how it's done. Or don't. Continue to do the same bullshit nothing you've been doing so far. I'm sure it will be a great success.

[Nefarious Tea]

Dafuq are you even talking about? I was always going to push you, didn't day 2 because a cop happened. I'm doing it now, your vote and time day one isn't that meaningful in the grand scheme of things but I still think it could be scum motivated and thats enough for me to push. Your suspicious don't make a lot of sense to me. You're anti Lora and now Dendrek. Dendrek's probably the most town as obtuse as he is. Lora's obviously the cop, don't get how you don't see that. It hasn't swayed me to change my vote. Soz babe.

Like I said, Krayzy was mafia and Lora could have known that because he was a cop and got a positive hit... or because he was also mafia. Throwing Krayzy under the bus as a mafia tactic makes a lot of sense because with a "cop" read early game on a mafia, it means nobody down would question Lora calling people out, because it would appear as though he was a vindicated cop.

My day one vote was based wholly on crazy fuckin spurious logic because I didn't want to lurk much as a first-time player (here, anyway), but how else do you get the game moving day one? Make up some shit and hope you didn't lynch a townie. I was surprised as fuck people went along with it, and I don't have a damned clue why people jumped on the Marack train because he was giving off zero mafia vibe. I just never bothered changing my vote because there was also the Virothe train and a couple random votes on others. Vote changing off a train is a little suspicious, especially with the RNG lynch. Besides, I figured a day one lynch, regardless of who buys the farm, ought to offer some clarity as to who's mafia and who's town but that Lora bomb definitely threw everyone and everything for a loop. So it seemed really suspicious. No cop goes "I'M A LEGIT COP!" on day two. Not with five fucking mafia; he'd be a dead man and I think the only reason Lora is still in the game is because I'm right, and he's mafia. We also have no idea what the night kill RNG might be. What if they have a chance of icing multiple people if they do something super risky, like intentionally getting one of their own lynched? Hence, the FOS.

Dendrek seemed like he might be doctor yesterday with the way he reacted to Krayzy claiming doc but today he's just been such an asshat that I think he's mafia. By pissing off enough people, but JUST not enough to actually vote his ass to the gibbet, he plays the town against each other using strong, but tainted, logic. If he's mafia, the town will end up rallying to lynch someone HE would prefer... instead of him. Hence, the FOS.

You've had it out for me since day one. It could be because you're being a dick to the new guy, and what better way to haze than to have me swing day two? But it could also be that Dendrek is right and you're mafia, and you're just trying to pick off the person who's new and can't be metagamed into oblivion without the suspicion of putting a bullet in my head with a NK.

So either you're a fuckin mafia, or Dendrek is; one of you should be spinning that barrel today imo.

[Graeham]

Guys, don't scare off the new player/cause him to have a meltdown please. We're pretty desperate for new blood, after all.

[Nefarious Tea]

Guys, don't scare off the new player/cause him to have a meltdown please. We're pretty desperate for new blood, after all.

I mean this is great fun, I'm definitely signing up again!

[Dendrek]

Not that I don't appreciate you not letting the thread just go quiet like it usually does, but the argument that you are surely town because you are posting a lot doesn't really hold up. I believe I already pointed out how easy it is for scum to scum hunt when they can literally point at anyone and not care, even their own teammates if they wanted.

My followup post was before this edit.

You are right to be suspicious of me. While I'm being more involved than I normally would be as scum (and yes, I would still be very involved as scum), that's WIFOM. It can be very hard to suss out which role I am simply by looking at the fact I'm scum hunting.

Don't believe me without merit. But don't dismiss me either.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm playing this aggressively this game because I believe town would be almost guaranteed to lose if I weren't. Also, I expected to die last night (or for Lora to). And I still expect it tonight. I'm trying to go out with gusto. So that when I am dead, at least I will have helped significantly narrow down who the scum are.

[Virothe]

Virothe.

Then you haven't been playing with me that long, I'm never this inactive as scum. Not sure why being town seems to breed this lurkey mind set, but meh I s'pose

[Crackleslap]

first of all a tip: people who are assholes aren't always scum. A lot of the time they will be town, its just how shit gets done.

Dendrek is far up his ass indeed however when it comes to my 'pushing'. That said don't think he's scum yet. Need responses from Danner, Largehorn and everyone else for shits n giggles.

ALSO, no ones countered claimed, we've even seen an apprentice cop flip already so its doubtful it's ever going to happen. Lora's already claimed bage's innocence so its only a matter of time before it's proved. Which is why I don't get your reads.

- - - Updated - - -

Guys, don't scare off the new player/cause him to have a meltdown please. We're pretty desperate for new blood, after all.

Graeham there's no time for weakness! Veredyns scum.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyways that's my last post for now. (Probably) work starts in an hour.

[listo95]

Large on the me having reads and being committed. Yes it is odd for me to have reads this early but they were asked for so I brought out my extremely basic ones that I will normally will have after D1. I also have stated many times in many games that my reads are more or less ever changing until end game. I rely on the info from lynches to get reads.

[Dendrek]

Ok, unless Lora is lying, which isn't really something I'm prepared to consider yet, here's what I think we may have:

Definite town: Lora, Bage, Danner, me

Definite scum: Crackle (and probably Virothe)

----------------------------------------

Between Graeham, Largehorn, Listo, Veredyn and Lysah, there are two more scum.

Unfortunately, that's a lot of people to narrow down to 2. It's even worse if I'm wrong about Virothe. (Can anyone confirm Virothe is like this as town? I really don't have that kind of meta read on him.)

Graeham - is neutral, leaning town. But it's not a very strong lean.

Spoiler: 

He was early on Virothe's train D1, putting Virothe into the lead temporarily. If Virothe is scum, this might be a sign Graeham is town. But it's not strong, because that could be bussing. However, he's one of only 3 people not on Marack's train D1 who is currently unconfirmed by Lora (him, Largehorn, and me). If none of us three is scum, that means all four remaining scum are on Marack D1. It means they all piled on to save Virothe. That's difficult to imagine but not entirely impossible.

He very quickly bought into Lora's claim after it was clarified, and was the first person to vote Krayzy following that. I can't actually grant a town read for this, because I think a lot of scum would not want to question Lora's claim in that situation. Graeham might be brave enough to try. So, at best, this is neutral for me.

Today, he was one of the first to respond to my request for reads. I have to admit that his observations have not been very deep. There was something wishywashy about his reads on Lysah and Listo, for example. But his eagerness to engage me rather than avoid me felt townie. However, his seemingly strong suspicion of Listo and seeming lack of suspicion of Crackle doesn't sit very well with me.

Largehorn - is leaning town. (If Listo is scum, Large is town.)

Spoiler: 

Besides myself and Graeham, Large is the only other player (not dead or confirmed) who did not have a vote on Marack D1. It's hard for me to believe the scum piled on to Marack. Even if Listo or Virothe are scum, that's still too much of a diversion. But if they were sloppy or impulsive, it might be possible.

He was one of the first, and has been one of the more active, to distrust Lora's claim. I give him town credit for this. The fact he didn't push against me as being possible scum when it was obvious I did buy Lora's claim is also a town point for him. Namely, if he were scum, it would have made a lot of sense to throw shade at me in that situation. Instead, he chose to think about it. (I'm not giving him this town point because he buddying up to me, btw. I'm giving it because he was pensive rather than reactive.)

And today, he began pretty early with a vote on Listo. He has since explained his read on Listo. I actually like both of these actions. But if Largehorn is scum, Listo is town.

Also, to Large's credit, he was mostly reasonable in his engagement with me during our argument/debate. However, I know Large can put on an air of being reasonable as scum, so I can't quite give him town points for his tone. But I will give him slight town points for his content.

Listo - is neutral, leaning scum. (If Large is scum, Listo is town.)

Spoiler: 

Listo's D1 vote on Marack was more or less obvious. Marack had just voted on him, so it was OMGUS and also self-preservation. I cannot really fault him for not voting on Virothe in this case, even if Virothe flips scum. What I mean here, simply, is that his vote D1 is not alignment indicative.

On D2, he slightly defended Krayzy after his claim. The defense was in pointing out the possibility Krayzy was telling the truth because we know TPR abilities will have some amount of RNG. This was something I did not like. Krayzy's claim was obviously engineered with this in mind. Scum, seeing my hard push against Krayzy, might feel the need to point this out based on the assumption I somehow missed it. His vote on Krayzy (in particular, what he posted with the vote) was also very weird. It was basically an auto-pilot post with an auto-pilot vote in an exaggerated way. (An 'I don't care, but here's a vote because I have to' kind of vote.) Finally, his interactions with me and Krayzy at the end of the day didn't feel completely natural to me. "But... I can only do that in the game thread!" In other words, D2 is where a large part of my scum lean on Listo is coming from. But I have to qualify this: these are not strong tells. They're just weird. And I'm not sure if weird = scum in this case.

Today provided a significant shift in Listo's participation. A good shift, in my opinion. For one, he provided his reads. They weren't great, but they existed. More importantly, he defended them in a way that I could buy. This implied, to me at least, that they weren't just spur of the moment reads to fill a quota. But it's not enough to give him a town read, yet.

Veredyn - is leaning scum for me, but I can't shake the feeling he's just playing a weird town game. I'm really nervous that he actually is town.

Spoiler: 

To start, I absolutely love how engaged he is. I like that he's giving thoughtful opinions. And I like that he's being aggressive. But with that said, a lot of what he's said is really scummy. It's to the point I have to wonder if scum would be that overt. If he is scum, are they not coaching him at all? (In truth, I suspect they wouldn't. So he could just be playing in a way that feels natural to him.)

When Veredyn voted on Marack, Virothe had the lead train. If Virothe is scum, this is a compelling reason to think Veredyn might be. However, Marack wasn't even the second leading train at the time. It's possible Veredyn's vote was just random. Veredyn was absolutely not the mastermind of Marack's lynch. His vote was too early and too insignificant.

On D2, Veredyn was strongly against Lora's claim. I think a lot of other players were suspicious of Lora mostly for meta reasons. There were those arguing game-centric reasons too. But it was almost to the point that I think he would have preferred to lynch Lora over Krayzy. If he isn't scum, this is a surprising amount of aggression for what is, admittedly, a reasonable insight. It's reasonable to be suspicious of Lora. Why would the cop claim D2. But this was also a strong passive defense of Krayzy.

His reads today have felt weird to me. But they are consistent. And he's said some things I don't think scum would openly say. Like pointing out that I might be the doc. Or continuing to say Lora and I are scum even after everything that's happened. I feel like if he was scum, he'd be more cautious than this. It's enough that I'm doubting my scum lean on him.

Lysah - is uncertain, leaning town for me.

Spoiler: 

Lysah is difficult to read namely because she tends to focus on a limited number of topics and she tends to be stubborn. (Sorry Lysah, just calling it as I see it. :P) In other words, it's hard to get a full range of her thoughts unless she feels like sharing.

Lysah's vote D1 on Marack was very suspicious to me. It looked to me like she was trying to save Virothe. (But based on a followup conversation I had with her, she might not have known Marack was in the lead already.)

On D2, she was quick to take Lora's side (but not outright believe Lora), but that slowly shifted to uncertainty as the day progressed.

Today, she provided her reads, perhaps begrudgingly. She had no one she called town, except maybe Danner (she later added Large as definite town, but I don't know if this was a joke). She put me as neutral, which is fine. Her scum leans were mostly based on inactivity or uninvolvement in the game. Outside of that, she's been particularly aggressive with Lora and partially aggressive with me.

Part of my town lean, if it's worth anything, is that her combativeness is actually reasonable (in a way I hope no one will ask me to explain). But I have to give a "not alignment indicative" asterisk to this.

I want to put Graeham, Large and Lysah in my town list. But I fear at least one of them does not belong there. If I'm right, that leaves Veredyn and Listo as scum.

[Danner]

I have Graeham in my town list.

While it certainly ain't water-tight; it's indeed down to the near-instant reaction of Lora's claim. And I say that knowing that Graeham consistently fools me.
Additionally; I also feel Graeham has been low-key on the scumhunting front. He dislikes being town, so I think that's another for me to think "yeah, probably town, probably disinterested in the game".

Which is a read I can't offer anyone else. Graeham playing low-key = graeham town.

- - - Updated - - -

I just had a literal showerthought (the ones you get while actually in the shower).

If I were to make the game setup looking for a way to make the mafia kill have some RNG element in it ...

I'd put each scum in isolation. Have each scum submit a NK. And pick a random one from those.
In such a design, scum would need to coordinate otherwise.

Thank you, @Danner. You get to be town. Sorry. You'll probably die tonight.

This, Dendrek, is why I can never quite shake that fear, isn't it?
I'm not saying you're scum though. That's way too premature, and it relies on an unconfirmed assumption. Furthermore, you're the one lifting this game right now. Voting you is IMO out of the question at this stage. It just unnerves me ever so slightly.

[Dendrek]

Your tinfoil hat is cutting off circulation, Danner.

[Danner]

That is quite possible.

- - - Updated - - -

Don't lie.

Also slightly don't like the fact that Danner scum reads Veredyn and doesn't vote him, votes me instead. Granted it's somewhat obvious why but still kinda weird. Hasn't added anything after that.

I'm gonna be Dendrek here since Danner now has less posts than me; "OH EM GE INACTIVE DANNER IS ALWAYS SCUM AND DOESN'T PLAY GREAT AS SCUM AND IS MUCH MORE ENGAGING WHEN TOWN."

Real reasons; He debated Lora being cop and whether if he was true or not when it was already kinda obvious he is the cop. Yes we all knew Lora always claims cop. He now has a vote on me for pressures sake, but hasn't added anything of value to his vote other than that. Hasn't done much since because he's probably working/sleeping doing whatever liek a real person. But I'd like to hear from you @Danner about your current perspective.

I'll engage with you even if Dendrek does not.

I am hesitant to vote Veredyn just just yet, because new player - give them some air and all. Sure, we're on D3 and the gloves should come off by then, but that doesn't mean I don't think it is a good vote to place. Just waiting one more day. I'm fairly likely to place it tomorrow, but we'll see.

I am forced to trust Lora. I just don't like having to do so, because Lora's "i'm the cop" on D1 is literally the boy who cried wolf. But this time, we provably caught a wolf. So there is substance to it. In the back of my mind, I keep simulating that Lora is the most dastardly scum ever that sold out a teammate, and the real cop still haven't counterclaimed for reasons unknown to mankind; or the mod has a game setup with 5 scum and the cop role is just a scum fakeclaim. But let's be real - that's not plausible. Lora is what he says he is. I just don't like rewarding the wolf-crying boy with attention, even if he this time was entirely justified.

I want to keep Dendrek around doing exactly what he is doing right now. Even though my paranoia is twitching all the time, he's doing good work with digging and leading. I also don't dislike the direction. He's clearly the town MVP. And if he's scum in the end, I'll stick to that story and congratulate him profoundly for a brilliant game played.

So why you?

Well, as I said to Largehorn earlier, I have six scum candidates, and four scum left.

I'm excluding the following for scummery
- Myself (Danner). Hi.
- Dendrek. For reasons above
- Lora. For reasons above.
- Bageloaf. Innocent, and gut feel, both aligning. Not scum this game.
- Graeham. Primarily the gut feel; reasons listed already, but secondary.

The scum candidates remaining are
- Yourself (Crackleslap). Likely scum.
- Veredyn. Likely scum.
- Listo. Likely scum.
- Largehorn. At least trying, and I liked his scrutiny of Lora a lot.
- Lysah. Voted on by Krayzy D2. Not worth too much.
- Virothe. Voted on by Krayzy D1. Worth a little.

I know there is only 4 scum left. At least two in my list of 6 are wrong. So I start somewhere. I chose you as you were the one I had the least reads on.

[Dendrek]

Please keep this timer in mind. I sincerely think the correct play today is to lynch Crackle.

Listo is a possibility, but I'm worried about that being a potential mislynch. Anyone else would be a mistake. If you have any sense that I am town, please consolidate your votes to Crackle.


@Lora I do not think it's wise to keep your vote on Lysah. She was being... well, Lysah. But that doesn't mean she is scum.
@Bageloaf @Veredyn @Virothe @Graeham @Lysah Please vote.

- - - Updated - - -

I doubt I'll be around when the day ends. I'm hopeful to see a red Crackle when I check the thread.

[Loaf]

fuck if I know who to vote for with all the arguing going around

vote Crackleslap

[Lysah]

Ah well we're just about out of time. I like the Crackle lynch, he didn't say much most of the game so far and I'm always down for a lynch on lurkers, whether active or otherwise. But...on that same note, I'd really like a lynch on Virothe instead, he has half as many posts as even crackle does. It looks like Crackle pretty much got jumped on by everyone at once this day because of his activity more than anything, which almost makes me worried of a coordinated scum effort to kill him. Why him over Virothe? What did Virothe do to get a pass this game so far?

Vote Crackle
There isn't enough time for anything else I'm sure, but I hope the real cop takes a good look at Virothe perhaps, he is pretty close to becoming a policy lynch at this point and in a game that is "heavily favored for scum" that's not a good thing.

[Dendrek]

Crackle pretty much got jumped on by everyone at once this day because of his activity more than anything, which almost makes me worried of a coordinated scum effort to kill him.

Unless you think 2+ people in this list is scum, this can't be a coordinated scum effort: Danner (336), Dendrek (393), Listo (394), Large (395), Bage (456), Lysah (457)

As I've said earlier, Virothe is my second strongest scum lean. But it is, just like you said, basically a policy lynch. I intend to go at him tomorrow. And if I'm dead, I'm hoping you guys will. But I expect Virothe will actually be around tomorrow (he basically promised to be), so I/we/you may be able to get more out of him. But to lynch him now is, in my estimation, slightly more risky than lynching Crackle. And that's based entirely on the fact I have a more solid scum read on Crackle than Virothe.

I'm not entirely sure I agree with your call to have him investigated. But I'll leave it to the "real cop" to decide.

[Largehorn]

Hey guys... sorry trying to knock out a project at work last minute. I've seen there is stuff I need to respond/comment on can't quite yet.

[Kryllian]

My apologies for the lack of official vote counts. The past couple days have been a whirlwind IRL.



Current Day 3 Votecount

Crackleslap(6) - Lysah(#157), Danner(#336), Dendrek(#393), Listo95(#394), Largehorn(#395), Bageloaf(#456)
Veredyn(4) - Veredyn(SelfVote x3), Crackleslap(#434)
Virothe(3) - Virothe(SelfVote x3)
Lysah(1) - Lora(#372)
Listo95(1) - Graeham(#390)