Mafia 110: Walton-Hill

[Dendrek]

I can't begin to understand your play this game, Dupti.

My apparent passiveness D1 is definitely worth noting. That could be a scum tell. You thought my Danner v Marack post felt awkward. You thought I was fence sitting too much. All worth noting. So develop a theory and test it. You didn't do that. You came out of the gate D2 with a vote and an absolute statement: Dendrek is scum. Over a D1 read.

Do you really think you're that good at reading me that you can tell my alignment on D1? I told you why I did the things I did. Do you think I was lying? (To think I could be lying is fine. But to be certain I was lying would be ridiculous.) To me it looks like you wanted me to be scum.

Early on yesterday you remarked that it seemed strange I wasn't pushing back against you for pushing against me. I seemed too calm, I believe were your words. I was calm for two reasons: 1) I knew you were wrong, 2) I gave you the benefit of a doubt that your mindset was that of a town player. I'm still confident of (1) but I'm no longer as confident of (2).

[dupti]

Its really simple, it doesnt matter if I was not 110% sure you were scum, all that matters is that you were my top scumread at the time.

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It also has nothing to do with you lying or not it simply has to do with your posts not managing to change my read

[Dendrek]

By the way could you explain why you believe Graeham is town?

Some of what I'm going to say is going to be hard for you and others to believe because there is an inherent belief in this community that anti-town = scum. Even though we all know that isn't necessarily true, a lot of players struggle to tell the difference.

Yesterday, Graeham did a few things that were clearly anti-town: Revealed his role unprompted, asked for plain VTs to out themselves, asking for Marack to full claim without pressure. But are these actions scum are likely to make? Do we assume Graeham is stupid enough to think "Hey VTs, reveal yourselves" is ever actually going to work if he's scum in order to narrow down the TPRs? His actions felt casually careless rather than methodically manipulative (alliteration not intentional).

In addition, the flow of his thoughts were consistent. He was aggressive without trying to be in control. And he was reasonable without it seeming like he was trying to be reasonable. He can certainly try to fake these things. And perhaps he would even succeed. But if it were fake, I'm fairly sure it would have felt off to me, and my interpretation of his actions would have shifted accordingly.

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Its really simple, it doesnt matter if I was not 110% sure you were scum, all that matters is that you were my top scumread at the time.

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It also has nothing to do with you lying or not it simply has to do with your posts not managing to change my read

You were 110% sure I was scum at the start of the day.

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At least, you pretended to be.

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Am I still your top scum read?

[Krayzy]

I'm still dumbfounded by Marack's play. He came off extremely scummy. I don't feel bad about lynching him. The part that dumbfounds me is him killing Large. Large was looking scummy mainly as an association with Marack being scum. Since Marack knew that wasn't the case why did he target him? Ugh. Whatever.

Oh and I hate having an ability like that in a game this small. It has put us at LyLo so early that we are almost guaranteed to lose.

For the same reason I assumed Large was scum I also assumed Graeham was town (this is my main reason for Marack being lynched). I now believe Graeham to be scum. I also don't like how Zexism didn't pick up on a number of things earlier, so he looks scummy to me too.

[Dendrek]

Krayzy, why has Graeham become scum?

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I should clarify: what changed your mind?

[Krayzy]

If you recall I felt Graeham may be scum at the start of the day yesterday. It was his interactions with Marack and Marack convincing me he was scum that made me feel differently. Now knowing Marack was town everything Graeham did yesterday completely flips around.

[Graeham]

That's very convenient. It also fails to account for the nuances of the situation.

[Krayzy]

That's very convenient. It also fails to account for the nuances of the situation.

Or it's how this game is played. If I don't use the known information from this game to come to conclusions then I'd just be guessing.

[Graeham]

Or it's how this game is played. If I don't use the known information from this game to come to conclusions then I'd just be guessing.

The game is played by examining information from as many angles as possible. Your theory frames me in the worst possible manner at a time when we need to be extremely cautious not to lynch the wrong player.

Your previous post doesn't even make much sense. Marack 'convinced' you that I was scum? How? He obviously didn't end the day with the belief that I was scum on account of not using his ability on me. I even urged him to do it if he felt that I was not to be trusted - and I wish he did, since then we wouldn't have lost the Cop.

[Krayzy]

Marack's thoughts on you have nothing to do with my thoughts on you. It was your interactions with him and him ending up town that make me feel you are scum.

I do know how tight of a situation we are in. I'm not voting for you yet. I'm just getting my opinions out there so we can get a consensus.

[Dendrek]

The game is played by examining information from as many angles as possible. Your theory frames me in the worst possible manner at a time when we need to be extremely cautious not to lynch the wrong player.

Your previous post doesn't even make much sense. Marack 'convinced' you that I was scum? How? He obviously didn't end the day with the belief that I was scum on account of not using his ability on me. I even urged him to do it if he felt that I was not to be trusted - and I wish he did, since then we wouldn't have lost the Cop.

Can you point out which post you told him to kill you in?

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Marack's thoughts on you have nothing to do with my thoughts on you. It was your interactions with him and him ending up town that make me feel you are scum.

I do know how tight of a situation we are in. I'm not voting for you yet. I'm just getting my opinions out there so we can get a consensus.

Can you look back over his posts from yesterday and point out specifics that have made you suspicious of him?

[Graeham]

Did Marack say he wanted to kill me as revenge to see how myself and others would react? The thing is, if he is scum then killing me isn't necessarily the best option if he does have the ability he claims to have. It'd be far more efficient to take a blind gamble and target someone else, potentially hitting a protection or investigation role instead.

That's fair. It's definitely a little strange. People backing off from a claimed kill isn't something I'd expect. I did it due to claiming as much in advance, though now I'm just confused. As I said earlier, I don't mind dying - so I'll be the one to hammer Marack if need be in case that is what triggers it.

It was in an admittedly roundabout manner, perhaps, but I was no means hiding from the possibility of soaking up the kill.

[Dendrek]

@Krayzy, if we cannot agree to lynch Graeham, who is your best followup choice for lynch?

[Robozerim]

The vote records themselves are still not very useful. We still have no scum deaths, so literally everybody's records look bad by that metric. Most of my suspicions and trusts are going to be pretty much entirely gut feels from a combination of posts I remember or have looked up, and posts I remember people putting forth about them.

Dendrek
D1-Krayzy, Danner (5), Marack (5)
2- Virothe (1), Largehorn (1), Graeham (1), Largehorn (2),
Thoughts- Has been accused by dupti as very likely to be scum. My gut still gives me the impression that he is town. Uncertain leaning trust.

dupti
D1-Largehorn (1)
2- Dendrek (1)
Thoughts- He was big against both Dendrek and Graeham, though seems to have cooled in that regards somewhat, if only to admit that he's not completely certain, if nothing else. He is asking and answering questions, and has gone out on a limb on occasion with his accusations, which would be bold for scum, but certainly not undoable. I get the impression he is town regardless. Trust.

Graeham
D1- Marack (1)
2- Marack (1), unvote
Thoughts- He and I have had some interaction. I believed he was suspicious yesterday, or at least one of the more suspicious candidates at the time. My suspicions have diminished somewhat, but not to the point of trusting. Krayzy currently believes he is scum, but I don't know how trusty he is, either. He seemed quite willing to take Marack's revenge kill. Was that a bluff or genuine? Uncertain leaning questionable.

Krayzy
D1-No vote on record
2- Marack (3/6)
Thoughts- Hasn't done a heck of a lot this game that I remember. He definitely called out Marack's behaviour as anti-town, and rightfully so seeing how he attempted to hold town hostage with his revenge kill threats. I get an inkling that he may not be trustworthy, though. Not a strong read by any means, but still a read. Uncertain leaning questionable.

Largehorn (Dead Cop)
D1-Danner (1)
2- Graeham (2), Marack (3), Graeham (2), Marack (5/6)
Thoughts- Well, there's not a lot here. He was pretty fixated on Graeham all day long, so it's possible that he had a guilty on him, but his lack of coming out with it makes such an assumption dubious at best.

Robozerim
D1- Marack (2), Danner (4)
2- Graeham (1)
Thoughts- I am who I am meant to be: somebody who won't vote for me. I clearly trust myself.

Veredyn/Nefarious Tea
D1-Marack (4)
2- Largehorn (1)
Thoughts- Changed his name, which makes me a little annoyed at him, which he says was due to outside forces not related to the game encouraging the change. Outside of that, I still don't remember a lot of what he's done. Looking up his posts, he's mostly said things against those who aren't contributing much, with a bit of fluff tossed in. Considering he himself hasn't contributed much, I can't say I trust him. Uncertain leaning questionable.

Virothe
D1- No vote on record
2- Dendrek (2), Marack (4/6)
Thoughts- Has gotten into some arguments, answered questions, and such. Has a half claim out there as some kind of visitor, and Graeham confirms he has it apparently. Says he's trying to bait a kill, but it has been pointed out that he hasn't been really aggressive to bait a kill, and his claim has clearly indicated that his role isn't very threatening. That in itself is a little odd. To quote Virothe "I told you my stuff was more or less pointless." -post 364. Somebody else (Krayzy?) suggested that scum might try and hide behind a seemingly harmless ability that they've been given to appear like a VT+ type of role. Uncertain leaning questionable.

Zexism
D1- Danner (2)
2- Marack (3/6)
Thoughts- Said he didn't want to lynch Marack near the end of D1, has since explained his reasoning. I actually don't remember a lot from him on d2. Looking it up, he had a fair bit of focus on Marack, as much of the town did. I just don't really know how I feel about him. I'm gonna go with uncertain. I remember feeling good about him at the start of last day, but d2 in its entirety is kinda meh. I think I'll go with a more neutral read for now. Uncertain.


Well, that's the list of my current reads. In recognition that we could inadvertently let mafia rush a lynch if we are careless with votes at this time, I will not throw out a vote. However, my top choice is probably Virothe at this point. After that, I'd probably put Nefarious Tea and Graeham at about the same, and Krayzy as the least suspicious of my questionable list.

[Nefarious Tea]

Nefarious Tea
D1-Marack (4)
2- Largehorn (1)
Thoughts- Changed his name, which makes me a little annoyed at him, which he says was due to outside forces not related to the game encouraging the change. Outside of that, I still don't remember a lot of what he's done. Looking up his posts, he's mostly said things against those who aren't contributing much, with a bit of fluff tossed in. Considering he himself hasn't contributed much, I can't say I trust him. Uncertain leaning questionable.

Look, full disclosure: my job is the kind of job where I have to be professional 24/7. I'm a teacher; I can't mess around. Somehow, one of my students figured out my MMO champ handle. I don't know how and couldn't even begin to guess as I don't post personal info here. Hell, I don't even have a social media presence. And they certainly weren't just mispronouncing it as my old handle sounds nothing like my real last name. I brushed it off with a casual "That's not how you pronounce my name," but theoretically it could be misconstrued if that kind of info started to spread. Therefore, to keep my immediate superior principal - or worse, the school board or gods forbid, the teacher's college - from thinking I fraternize with students outside class hours if that kind of info did get out, I changed my MMO champ handle to one that even most of my actual, real life friends don't know. It was not my intention to cause problems, and at the end of the day and no offense, but my professional reputation is light years ahead in my concerns than any annoyance it's caused this game, even if I like playing mafia with everyone here. Still, the timing was poor and though I had no choice, I'm sorry for the issues.

EDIT: also analysis incoming, still typing it.

[Robozerim]

Look, full disclosure: my job is the kind of job where I have to be professional 24/7. I'm a teacher; I can't mess around. Somehow, one of my students figured out my MMO champ handle. I don't know how and couldn't even begin to guess as I don't post personal info here. Hell, I don't even have a social media presence. And they certainly weren't just mispronouncing it as my old handle sounds nothing like my real last name. I brushed it off with a casual "That's not how you pronounce my name," but theoretically it could be misconstrued if that kind of info started to spread. Therefore, to keep my immediate superior principal - or worse, the school board or gods forbid, the teacher's college - from thinking I fraternize with students outside class hours if that kind of info did get out, I changed my MMO champ handle to one that even most of my actual, real life friends don't know. It was not my intention to cause problems, and at the end of the day and no offense, but my professional reputation is light years ahead in my concerns than any annoyance it's caused this game, even if I like playing mafia with everyone here. Still, the timing was poor and though I had no choice, I'm sorry for the issues.

You're taking that part about your name change annoying me too seriously. That part is more or less meant to be harmless jabbing at you. You really didn't need to go into such detail.

[Nefarious Tea]

You're taking that part about your name change annoying me too seriously. That part is more or less meant to be harmless jabbing at you. You really didn't need to go into such detail.

I just didn't want people to be like "Lynch because name change!" It's theoretically a valid reason because it's confusing; I wanted people to know I had a very good reason for doing it and I wasn't trying to screw with people's heads.

[Dendrek]

I looked over Largehorn's posts to see if perhaps he hinted as an investigation result. I honestly couldn't find one. He's aggressive towards Graeham and he's sympathetic towards Marack. Either could have been his target. So I can't use him to determine Graeham's alignment.

However, if Graeham ends up being one of the last people alive (if we survive today), at that point it might be wise to consider it possible Large had a result on him.

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I just didn't want people to be like "Lynch because name change!" It's theoretically a valid reason because it's confusing; I wanted people to know I had a very good reason for doing it and I wasn't trying to screw with people's heads.

I think you're lying about having an IRL and I think we should lynch you for it.

[Nefarious Tea]

@Dendrek

Of the Day Three survivors:

Dendrek: low-certainty town
Reasoning: You're pretty aggressive; this suggests you're either a TPR or scum trying to keep everyone on the defensive so they're stuck defending themselves instead of pursuing your lynch. Since that's unresolvably WIFOM (unless a revelation comes to me as I type out the rest of this), I'm going to have to guess a tentative town.

Dupti: medium-certainty mafia
Reasoning: The metagame-read thing feels really dubious. "You're acting this way because you always do when [x]!" as an argument suggests Dupti knows who is mafia and who is town, which necessarily means he'd have to be mafia. Also, hasn't been thrilled with Graeham, Marack, or Dendrek. Since Marack flipped town (in possibly the most anti-town behaviour even before he brought down Largehorn-as-cop in the worst murder suicide outside real life), this also suggests Dupti is scum, and lends credence to Dendrek being town. He's also been super evasive and giving Ion Hozzikastas-level non-answers this Day 3, which looks suspicious, especially if I'm right about Dendrek being a townie.

Graeham: low-certainty mafia
Reasoning: Graeham was the target Marack threatened to kill with his ability, back when we thought it might be a bluff of some kind. Knowing Marack was being truthful, this suggests then that Graeham is scum, or at least that Marack thought Graeham was scum. I'm still honestly confused by why, in the end, Marack chose to kill Largehorn; perhaps Marack thought, as I did, that Large being evasive was scummy and ended up making a bad judgment? Either way it seemed really out of left field, and if Marack had been a mafia-revenant it would guarantee Graeham was scum. Not to mention that Zexism stuck a vote on Marack but only after learning it wouldn't be one away from a lynch - the ensuring pressure but not a guarantee. Therefore, potentially not triggering Marack's claim if it were true, and getting Graeham killed (don't want to kill your scum buddy if you can help it obviously, especially as a revenge kill wouldn't work to allay suspicion).

Krayzy: medium-certainty town
Reasoning: Krayzy's throw away Day 1 line about potentially being a vigilante is unlikely at this point, since we had a revenant in the game. Two potentially town-aligned loose cannons would be devastatingly anti-town. Unless the doctor, if we have one, managed to guess right two nights in a row who either the vigilante or mafia were going to kill. The odds of that are slim, so a vigilante and a revenant would almost guarantee a lylo quickly if they killed townies. Anyway, Krayzy has come to the same conclusion regarding Graeham and Zexism being probably scum, and completely independently of any discourse with myself (I had a date with my girlfriend this evening so I haven't had time to read the thread until now). So clearly the scientific method works as given the same evidence we have the same result.

Robozerim: medium-certainty town
Reasoning: Robozerim (henceforth just Robo) hasn't contributed a whole lot to the thread (he only has three more posts than Danner, who was killed Night One), which initially scans as scummy. However, he's also contributed a great deal to the discussions in such few posts (more than I have, to be honest), and in a way that is almost clinically efficient, which feels pretty pro-town. I can't help but wonder if the low post count then is because he's got a useful night power and is trying to stay out of the mafia crosshairs.

Virothe: low-certainty WIFOM - that is, I don't know if he's town or scum, but I've got weak evidence either way.
Reasoning: He is supicious of dupti (or at least he was), whom I believe with reasonable certainty to be scum, which suggests he's town. On the other hand, Virothe has been flaunting a night power which he says is useless but who knows what's really going on? It could be a mafia ploy since if many townies have powers, even weak ones, it stands to reason mafia do too.

Zexism: medium-certainty mafia
Reasoning: Didn't do much yesterday besides try to get useful info from Marack, and has done nothing today. I just... I get that real life is a thing but everyone has the internet attached to their camera these days and low activity always strikes me as scummy. Not to mention his/her actions in regards to the timing of the Marack vote - making sure to vote only once being two away from a lynch was established by another player. Also see the Graeham reasoning above.

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I think you're lying about having an IRL and I think we should lynch you for it.

I can't decide if this is sarcasm or not.

[Dendrek]

I can't decide if this is sarcasm or not.

I think you're lying about not knowing if it's sarcasm and I think we should lynch you for it.