Mafia 110: Walton-Hill

[Dendrek]

I'm not going to lie, I'm just not great at reading into posts a lot of the time. I wrote what makes sense to me, but I read someone of the logic threads you or others put out and I'm like "how do they figure this from that?"

I'm curious if you have an example.

One of you has to be mafia but of the two I'd prefer to think you're town and Graeham is mafia.

Explain this. Why does one of us have to be mafia?

[Deleted]

Vote Count:



Not voting: 8- Dendrek , Dupti, Graeham, Krayzy, Nefarious Tea, Robo, Virothe, Zexism







With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

[Alpharius]

With that I am going to bed. Quite a busy day outside of this game today. Bought a truck load of stuff because my paycheck came in and I needed food. Also got into an argument with someone on the rag, so I didn't get as much done as I wanted today

[Dendrek]

Vote Count:



Not voting: 8- Dendrek , Dupti, Graeham, Krayzy, Nefarious Tea, Robo, Virothe, Zexism

Thank god we got that confirmed. <3

[Nefarious Tea]

I'm curious if you have an example.



Explain this. Why does one of us have to be mafia?

These have very nearly the same answer, actually. I wrote what you quoted under the spurious assumption that you both couldn't be mafia because that would be too many mafia. My logic utterly ignored the existence of the other players, simply because they weren't in my mind. Assuming Zexism isn't lying about being a tracker, it IS actually possible for both you and Graeham to be scum, because my only (personally) reliable mafia read is Dupti.

I suppose what I'm actually saying is I'm really absent-minded.

[dupti]

Out of curiousity, if I was scum who would my teammates be Tea?

[Nefarious Tea]

Or, as an addendum: if there isn't incontrovertible proof of a claim, my brain automatically disregards it and thus everyone is scum unless dead or can prove they're town (but generally that gets them killed as the only people who can really prove are TPRs). #Science

[Dendrek]

These have very nearly the same answer, actually. I wrote what you quoted under the spurious assumption that you both couldn't be mafia because that would be too many mafia. My logic utterly ignored the existence of the other players, simply because they weren't in my mind. Assuming Zexism isn't lying about being a tracker, it IS actually possible for both you and Graeham to be scum, because my only (personally) reliable mafia read is Dupti.

I suppose what I'm actually saying is I'm really absent-minded.

You still have this strong scum read on Dupti after his latest posts?

It's weird to me that your strongest scum reads are the three most active players. And your strongest town reads are the three least active. Can you explain that?

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In before "Activity doesn't equal town hurp durp". I know that. But the players most consistently involved in the game, who are not just fluffing, and who have been trying to game solve since the start of D2 are the ones Nef is most suspicious of.

[Nefarious Tea]

Out of curiousity, if I was scum who would my teammates be Tea?

Your team mates would be earl grey (because it's gross), and herbal (because it's not really tea). Intentionally misrepresenting semantics aside...

Not me (obviously).

Not Virothe. This logic is kind of thin, and assumes that Virothe was arguing with you over meta reads on Day 2 from the same standpoint I was - a passionate hate for metagaming, and not some kind of mafia ploy to make town think one of you isn't mafia.

I believe Zexism is potentially mafia because of the same independent conclusions Krayzy and I made yesterday. Also:

Assuming Zexism isn't lying about being a tracker, it IS actually possible for both you and Graeham to be scum, because my only (personally) reliable mafia read is Dupti.

I suppose what I'm actually saying is I'm really absent-minded.

This is garbage-tier logic, because Zexism could be a mafia tracker, which didn't occur to me initially. Besides that, again, Krayzy could have "come to the same conclusion" because he's mafia, which turns Krayzy and Zexism into a case of WIFOM, like almost all my reasoning because I just... don't get gut feelings and therefore anything not concrete is pointless vacillation.

So your first mafia buddy is Zexism.

Your second mafia buddy is Graeham - intentionally pushing the buttons of a self-claimed revenant is extremely anti-town. Either the revenant claim is a lie (and therefore he's mafia), or it's true. But you have to assume it's true because unless there's a cop overtly or covertly slinging accurate info, the revenant has a higher chance of killing a townie.

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In before "Activity doesn't equal town hurp durp". I know that. But the players most consistently involved in the game, who are not just fluffing, and who have been trying to game solve since the start of D2 are the ones Nef is most suspicious of.

Personal bias. People with strong oratory skills but without concrete proof are shills in real life (eg. the anti-vax crowd using celebrity "clout" to push a lie).

Therefore, in game, you're mafia.

Sorry.

[dupti]

What am I even reading? If you are town this game then I am pretty sure we have already lost. Its not that I have that much of an issue with your reads, if you think im mafia then fair enough but your reasoning is just.. weird, almost feels forced.

[Dendrek]

Agree with Dupti on that observation.

Nef, whether or not you accept this to be true for this game: town are more likely to want to solve the game (though individual performance and preference may vary) and scum are not. Scum don't have a strong motivation to be active because that requires them to post more and it makes it more likely for them to slip up. They also don't have a need to game solve because they already have more information than most of the rest of the players.

Therefore, statistically and in most games, strong, game-solvey activity is a strong town tell. Inactivity, indifference, and opportunism is a strong scum tell.

Your town reads show classic scum signs. Your scum reads show classic town signs. If you approach every game the way you're approaching this one, you will lose more often than not (at least, assuming you're town).

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Also, I was a strong orator in games where you know for a fact I was town. So to assume it's a scum tell for me is foolish. Even if you want to ignore meta, you shouldn't ignore motivation.

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This is garbage-tier logic, because Zexism could be a mafia tracker, which didn't occur to me initially. Besides that, again, Krayzy could have "come to the same conclusion" because he's mafia, which turns Krayzy and Zexism into a case of WIFOM, like almost all my reasoning because I just... don't get gut feelings and therefore anything not concrete is pointless vacillation.

So your first mafia buddy is Zexism.

Your second mafia buddy is Graeham - intentionally pushing the buttons of a self-claimed revenant is extremely anti-town. Either the revenant claim is a lie (and therefore he's mafia), or it's true. But you have to assume it's true because unless there's a cop overtly or covertly slinging accurate info, the revenant has a higher chance of killing a townie.

None of this makes sense. Let me explain:

1) Mafia tracker: In this game? Why? What do they get out of seeing that someone is able to visit other people when literally (or probably literally) everyone is able to do that? The ONLY case where it might be useful is if they track someone to their kill target and the kill target ends up not dying that night. This might indicate they caught the doc. In all other situations, mafia tracker is useless this game.

2) You and Krayzy came to the same conclusion based on bad reasoning. But you also have not updated your conclusion based on the latest evidence. In fact, you haven't updated for anyone but me. There has been a lot of activity from Zexism and Dupti, and you seem to completely ignore that.

3) Graeham was not pushing the buttons of a Revenant. He didn't know Marack was a Revenant until the claim, at which point he stopped pushing his buttons. (To note, him backing off is actually more scummy than if he had pushed Marack's buttons. Pushing Marack invites Marack to kill him. If Graeham is mafia, he obviously wouldn't want that.)

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Now I'm certain:

Mafia: Krayzy, Virothe, Nef

I'll still wait on voting to see how others reply/play. Definitely want some input from @Robozerim

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Actually, I suppose there's a possibility Robo should be in my mafia list. >.> But I cannot put Dupti, Graeham or Zexism there.

[Robozerim]

Agree with Dupti on that observation.

Nef, whether or not you accept this to be true for this game: town are more likely to want to solve the game (though individual performance and preference may vary) and scum are not. Scum don't have a strong motivation to be active because that requires them to post more and it makes it more likely for them to slip up. They also don't have a need to game solve because they already have more information than most of the rest of the players.

Therefore, statistically and in most games, strong, game-solvey activity is a strong town tell. Inactivity, indifference, and opportunism is a strong scum tell.

Your town reads show classic scum signs. Your scum reads show classic town signs. If you approach every game the way you're approaching this one, you will lose more often than not (at least, assuming you're town).

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Also, I was a strong orator in games where you know for a fact I was town. So to assume it's a scum tell for me is foolish. Even if you want to ignore meta, you shouldn't ignore motivation.

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None of this makes sense. Let me explain:

1) Mafia tracker: In this game? Why? What do they get out of seeing that someone is able to visit other people when literally (or probably literally) everyone is able to do that? The ONLY case where it might be useful is if they track someone to their kill target and the kill target ends up not dying that night. This might indicate they caught the doc. In all other situations, mafia tracker is useless this game.

2) You and Krayzy came to the same conclusion based on bad reasoning. But you also have not updated your conclusion based on the latest evidence. In fact, you haven't updated for anyone but me. There has been a lot of activity from Zexism and Dupti, and you seem to completely ignore that.

3) Graeham was not pushing the buttons of a Revenant. He didn't know Marack was a Revenant until the claim, at which point he stopped pushing his buttons. (To note, him backing off is actually more scummy than if he had pushed Marack's buttons. Pushing Marack invites Marack to kill him. If Graeham is mafia, he obviously wouldn't want that.)

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Now I'm certain:

Mafia: Krayzy, Virothe, Nef

I'll still wait on voting to see how others reply/play. Definitely want some input from @Robozerim

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Actually, I suppose there's a possibility Robo should be in my mafia list. >.> But I cannot put Dupti, Graeham or Zexism there.

Those are three of the four I had as my most suspicious on my list. Nefarious does seem to be floundering a bit, and you have a point on him defending the ones who are doing the least, while accusing the most active of being scum. It's probably not as simple as all the scum are active, or all the scum are inactive, but it is certainly curious.

I said before that Virothe is my personal choice for lynching today. We've gone quite a while this day without any voting and only discussing things. I think the time for action has arisen.

vote: Virothe

[Dendrek]

If you're wrong though, scum pile on and win. But truthfully, I don't see that happening in this case:

Either Virothe is scum and that vote will go unaffected until town act on it. Or you are scum and town must act on it for it to succeed.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm not afraid of your vote. Because I simply cannot see a scum setup that doesn't have one of you two on it. (Though I consider him to be more likely than you.)

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Robo, who is your fourth? And why those four?

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Oh right, Graeham was your fourth, right? Nvm. You've already explained it. :P

[Robozerim]

If you're wrong though, scum pile on and win. But truthfully, I don't see that happening in this case:

Either Virothe is scum and that vote will go unaffected until town act on it. Or you are scum and town must act on it for it to succeed.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm not afraid of your vote. Because I simply cannot see a scum setup that doesn't have one of you two on it. (Though I consider him to be more likely than you.)

I wouldn't assume so. At most we have a 3 man mafia (because 4 man mafia is very unlikely given game size, and would probably have resulted in a game over already since it'd be 1:1 and town couldn't pull off a lynch without mafia helping them). Scum pile onto a vote and it's 4/8, still not enough for a lynch. You'd need two townies, presumably, to really risk having scum force through a lynch.

Thinking on it, I think we've been slightly paranoid about votes today. Not completely without reason, but perhaps a little blown out of proportion.

[Dendrek]

Wait, you're right. I'm an idiot. I wasn't thinking about numbers. I just had it in my mind that a vote = loss if it's wrong. :P

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Since I'm pretty sure a lynch will require Zexism to be here, I don't anticipate it happening for a minimum of 8 hours.

[Krayzy]

Now I'm certain:

Mafia: Krayzy, Virothe, Nef

Well, you are wrong about at least one of us.

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Using vote tallies as a basis for if someone is scum or not is bad. Very bad. There are quite a few of us here that have had no problems being the most active in games as scum and mafia.

It is often the case that one of the scum is usually low on the tally but that doesn't hold true for everyone. This is one meta thing I do pay attention to.

[Dendrek]

Well, you are wrong about at least one of us.

Update your reads list, please. (Assuming there's anything to update. Considering the activity that has happened since your first list, I assume there must be some changes.)

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Using vote tallies as a basis for if someone is scum or not is bad. Very bad. There are quite a few of us here that have had no problems being the most active in games as scum and mafia.

It is often the case that one of the scum is usually low on the tally but that doesn't hold true for everyone. This is one meta thing I do pay attention to.

I assume this is directed at Robo? If so, his reads were not based on vote counts, but more so on interactions and instinct.

If this was directed at me (regarding my most/least active statement) of course you're right. But that's not really the basis of my reads. I was only using it as a counter point to Nef's extremely questionable reads.

[Krayzy]

Watching the Dodgers playoff game right now. You won't be getting anything from me for a few hours.

[Dendrek]

That's fine. It will be at least a few hours before enough players show up to end this game day.

[Nefarious Tea]

1) Mafia tracker: In this game? Why? What do they get out of seeing that someone is able to visit other people when literally (or probably literally) everyone is able to do that? The ONLY case where it might be useful is if they track someone to their kill target and the kill target ends up not dying that night. This might indicate they caught the doc. In all other situations, mafia tracker is useless this game.

How is it not useless? Every power we've seen so far except Marack's has been pretty weak, right? If a mafia tracker tracks a person leaving at night - boom, TPR - either orchestrate a lynch or kill the next night.

2) You and Krayzy came to the same conclusion based on bad reasoning. But you also have not updated your conclusion based on the latest evidence. In fact, you haven't updated for anyone but me. There has been a lot of activity from Zexism and Dupti, and you seem to completely ignore that.

I'm responding to the posts you write towards me. Whether you think I'm mafia or not is irrelevant to how difficult it is for me to remember all the he said she said and the thread's at 26 pages... that's a LOT to reread. I see a mention or quote notification and I respond to what I see there.

3) Graeham was not pushing the buttons of a Revenant. He didn't know Marack was a Revenant until the claim, at which point he stopped pushing his buttons. (To note, him backing off is actually more scummy than if he had pushed Marack's buttons. Pushing Marack invites Marack to kill him. If Graeham is mafia, he obviously wouldn't want that.)

Except he kind of did, or at least it seemed like it. Marack made the soft-claim about being a "VT with a revenge kill" without using the revenant word and Graeham still prodded until Marack hard-claimed the specifics, only backing off when Marack threatened to use it on him. To me, that feels really scummy, because a mafia knows if he dies it's a lot harder to win. They have less numbers and can ill-afford losses. It could also be because my napkin mental math of Graeham dying as town vs scum is off as to at what the point of no return might be. We have no evidence for a doctor after all.

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Also, obviously:

"Why didn't you try to deny the scum claim against you?" -Dendrek

Well, because I can't prove I'm not without painting a giant target on my face.