"Trump's Chances in 2020 Are Better Than You Think"

[Felya]

22/45 were one termers.

4 (Bush, Nixon, Carter, Ford) of the last 8 (Bush, Reagan, Clinton, Obama).

[Xeones]

We will re-elect him just because America doesn't really do one term presidents. Dems taking the senate and keeping the house for the next 6 years is probably going to happen though.

This is one of those things that doesn't make sense. Like democrats won the midterms by 6%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2%. Do you really want to gamble on Trump winning just because he is an incumbent? I don't think the incumbent effect is going to make up that difference and allow the electoral college to steal the vote from the people again.

Trump still has a no zero chance of winning and that is terrifying. But I don't understand the people who seem sure he is going to win things would have to drastically change in the next 2 years for him to close that gap.

[smityx]

There is an article a week on this topic. Congrats on being clickbaited.

Trump isn't making it to 2020 though. 2019 is the Year of Impeachment.

And 2021-2022 is the year(s) of New York prosecutions. He may be able to slime his way out of federal prosecution but he'll probably end up at Rikers Island for the state charges.

[Dendrek]

His base wasn't the reason he got elected. The moderates that flipped were.

We, as a society, have to stop worrying about Trump's base. they are too far gone and cannot be reasoned with, nor are they plentiful enough to matter if the Dems get their shit together.

This is definitely true. As a general rule, the only thing you need to win as a Democrat is the ability to motivate your base. Republicans are always motivated. Fear mongering is a powerful tool and they use it well. Which is why Trump's base won't matter in 2020: They already voted, and they will vote again -- the numbers they see in 2020 won't be much different than they were in 2016. They might even be worse.

In 2016, those that might have voted Dem were not motivated. And the low turnout reflected that. Despite all the fear and dislike for Trump, there was just as successful a campaign to sell dislike and fear of Hillary. In 2020, Republicans will be at a massive disadvantage. Dems are now hugely motivated. This is absolutely something they never want to see, which is why gerrymandering and vote suppression is always so important to them. Republicans rarely win when Dems get out to vote.

Trump won't be able to turncoat moderates either. His base is all he has. And his base is about 30% of voting Americans. He might pick up some ex-Republicans and some "independents," but that won't be enough to counter the landslide he'll see from the other side.

It will be the Democrat's election to lose. They just need to not to something stupid like putting up Trump-light to go against him.

[Polyxo]

I don't think he remotely has a shot. Open cooperation between the GRU and the US government can't salvage the deficit he has to any one of the top prospective DNC candidates. Even Biden's up by like 13.

[JohnBrown1917]

I don't think he remotely has a shot. Open cooperation between the GRU and the US government can't salvage the deficit he has to any one of the top prospective DNC candidates. Even Biden's up by like 13.

Running on the deficit will be one hell of a stupid idea, most people don't give a shit about it.

[Polyxo]

Running on the deficit will be one hell of a stupid idea, most people don't give a shit about it.

I mean the polling deficit. He's way, way behind pretty much all the prospective DNC candidates.

[Moralgy]

22/45 were one termers.

Much has changed since the last time we had a one term president, we haven't done a 1 term president in almost my entire lifetime, and that included Bush getting two terms. I would love to see Trump become a one term president, but if Bush didn't get 1 term when we still sorta held politicians accountable for being terrible, then I'm not too confident in this day and age, where people let politicians get away with actual assault, Trump will be 1 termed.

This is one of those things that doesn't make sense. Like democrats won the midterms by 6%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2%. Do you really want to gamble on Trump winning just because he is an incumbent? I don't think the incumbent effect is going to make up that difference and allow the electoral college to steal the vote from the people again.

Trump still has a no zero chance of winning and that is terrifying. But I don't understand the people who seem sure he is going to win things would have to drastically change in the next 2 years for him to close that gap.

Republicans thought they were going to win the presidency after taking over the house in a similarly overwhelming nature in 2010 as what the dems just pulled off. Obama's approval ratings were mid 40s for most of 2012 and low 40s for most of 2011, but he still won over Romney by a large margin despite these situations.

Look, I don't like Trump, he is a dick that keeps making me wonder if I'm going to wake up and have to worry about my life because some evangelical douchebag whispered sweet nothings into his ears, but don't be so confident right now. A lot can change, and thinking he has zero chance is underestimating the American public's willingness to just accept the status quo, even if the status quo is a buffoon that constantly embarrasses the country. Fuck, we gave Bush 2 terms. >.> It will take a very charismatic democratic candidate to win in 2020.

[Deleted]

the economy will dictate trumps fate.

[gobio]

Depending on what "YOU" means, if "YOU" refers to those retards that predicted HILARY 97% WIN last time, then I guess he is right.

[cainejw]

Running on the deficit will be one hell of a stupid idea, most people don't give a shit about it.

Which is quite untrue as the top issues are the economy, healthcare, taxes, and spending. All are intimately tied to the deficit. It's hard to have a strong economy, quality healthcare, and responsible spending when tax revenue is low due to massive tax cuts that have been show to benefit the rich with little to no driving force on the economy.

[Felya]

Depending on what "YOU" means, if "YOU" refers to those retards that predicted HILARY 97% WIN last time, then I guess he is right.

The 3% out of 100% hits and you call others retards? You do know that every lottery winner had more than 99% chance to lose?

[FeedsOnDevTears]

Well. Democrats have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, so we'll probably need more than that. But I agree that's a good start.

Objectively, it ought to be easy.

Nominate a candidate who is a clear alternative to Trump: young, charismatic, credible without being too serious. Then get some basic issues: equality (including reducing income inequality), education (including the student loan bubble), and the environment (including global warming). Don't tell the voters that Trump is a deplorable clown, show it to them every single day by contrasting their sane candidate with his craziness. Don't have the candidate campaign on "Trump is a bad person". Do, separately from the candidate, hammer home that Trump is an incompetent President. Get that Dan Quayle feel to stick to him like glue. (They should have done this from the start.) I want to see it get to the point where every time Trump is on TV without a laugh track or Benny Hill music, people feel something is missing. And finally, get out the vote. Don't worry about "winning over Republicans". Do worry about not veering so far left that real moderates stay home. But most of all, get out the vote. Start fighting GOP voter suppression now. That should be the Democratic Party's biggest job over the next two years. Get everyone who doesn't support Trump to vote and get those votes counted and we can put the GOP out with the trash where it belongs. Dump Trump like the garbage he is!

But yeah. I'm sure the DNC can mess that up. I just hope they don't mess it up so badly he wins. Again.

[Omega10]

I think he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. I seriously doubt that he will be removed from office in this term, and any attempts to do so will just be waived way as political posturing.

The reason I think he might not make it is due to the attention given to the republican cheating in the Georgia governor's race. This seems to be motivating democrats all over the country to review the voting processes in their OWN states. Georgia is not the only state where republican office holders stripped voting rights away from blacks (who vote overwhelmingly democratic), and set up 5 minute wait lines to vote in republican strongholds and 4+ hour waits in democratic strongholds. Some of these states will work to correct these deficiencies.

The one thing that is clear is: BUT HER EMAILS was a hugely successful political slogan in 2016. There was absolutely no fact behind it, but repeating it over and over, with the mainstream media working hard to pound it into the brains of the electorate, worked like a charm in getting Trump elected. Corporations got their payback with the tax cut.

This strategy will be repeated in the 2020 elections. And there is a good chance that in 2021, a lot of people will be saying "the democratic candidate ran a HORRIBLE race, which is why Trump won." How do you win an election when the mainstream media calls you Crooked Hillary, despite the fact that Hillary was FAR more honest and decent than Trump, and despite the fact that the Clinton foundation is FAR more reputable than the Trump foundation?

[Dendrek]

The 3% out of 100% hits and you call others retards? You do know that every lottery winner had more than 99% chance to lose?

I actually knew someone once who insisted that if the odds were 10%, the event was guaranteed to happen by the 10th attempt. It took quite a lot of effort to explain to him that is not how percents work.

[psiko74]

He's got my vote in 2020. Trump isn't the best candidate but he's the only choice. It's not like there's going to be a Democrat that shares my political views.

[Daethz]

Hillary's greatest mistake was playing right into the Republican narrative. Manipulation and smear -- that's about all she did when she went up against Trump. Trump was a joke, and many on the right loved him for it. Hillary tried to play his game, which is something the left and middle cannot stand. We wanted integrity, and she delivered none. That, I think, is what kept a lot of Dems, liberals and independents away from the voting booths in '16.

The '20 Democrat candidate needs to show us what competence and human decency looks like. That's really not hard to do. Especially when juxtaposed with Trump. But if they play his game, they might just give him a winning hand.

Thats all hillary is capable of doing.
She has no personality, she isn't a nice person, shes even a known racist based on comments like "Super-Predator" and several other unfortunate moments on camera.
Yet everyone ignores that too based on party lines.
Racism seems to be subjective and only matters if the person isn't in the same party as you when they do it, its sad.

[SirBeef]

Much has changed since the last time we had a one term president, we haven't done a 1 term president in almost my entire lifetime, and that included Bush getting two terms. I would love to see Trump become a one term president, but if Bush didn't get 1 term when we still sorta held politicians accountable for being terrible, then I'm not too confident in this day and age, where people let politicians get away with actual assault, Trump will be 1 termed.



Republicans thought they were going to win the presidency after taking over the house in a similarly overwhelming nature in 2010 as what the dems just pulled off. Obama's approval ratings were mid 40s for most of 2012 and low 40s for most of 2011, but he still won over Romney by a large margin despite these situations.

Look, I don't like Trump, he is a dick that keeps making me wonder if I'm going to wake up and have to worry about my life because some evangelical douchebag whispered sweet nothings into his ears, but don't be so confident right now. A lot can change, and thinking he has zero chance is underestimating the American public's willingness to just accept the status quo, even if the status quo is a buffoon that constantly embarrasses the country. Fuck, we gave Bush 2 terms. >.> It will take a very charismatic democratic candidate to win in 2020.

Not denying that. Sure recently only a few and a few in the past were due to deaths and one Assassination, but still, half of all Presidents were one termers.

[JohnBrown1917]

Which is quite untrue as the top issues are the economy, healthcare, taxes, and spending. All are intimately tied to the deficit. It's hard to have a strong economy, quality healthcare, and responsible spending when tax revenue is low due to massive tax cuts that have been show to benefit the rich with little to no driving force on the economy.

You have to go more specific into these issues, running on the deficit wont get you any votes.
Stuff that directly affects people.


Education
Min wage
Labour laws
Cost of healthcare.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean the polling deficit. He's way, way behind pretty much all the prospective DNC candidates.

Oh, my bad.
Yeah, theyll be fine if they pick a progressive who can energize the dem base. Not something to put all your hope on tho.

[tyrlaan]

He's got my vote in 2020. Trump isn't the best candidate but he's the only choice. It's not like there's going to be a Democrat that shares my political views.

So your political views are screw LGBTQ, non-whites, women, immigrants, the poor, and the middle class? Nice.