Two Tankers Damaged Near Strait of Hormuz; One Suffers ‘Suspected Attack’

[ringpriest]

This is Bolton. This is your national security advisor.
This is the leadership promising they will have control over Tehran in 2019.

I doubt Bolton is going to be calling any shots in the near future; I'm actually somewhat more optimistic than I was last month about the prospects of a US-Iran war being avoided - it would appear that someone with a deent knowledge of history, a keen wit, and who doesn't like Bolton is calling the foreign policy shots for the Trump Administration, at least for now.

This weekend, at the invitation of Kim Jong Un, President Donald Trump stepped briefly across the demilitarized zone into North Korean territory, becoming the first sitting United States president to do so. That’s one short waddle for a U.S. president, one giant leap for a supreme leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Previous presidents had refused to even contemplate such a gesture, which the North Koreans and the rest of the world will read as acknowledgment that its regime acted wisely when it decided to build atomic bombs and test long-range missiles, while impoverishing its people and threatening U.S. allies with annihilation. Arms-proliferation experts have united in considering such a visit disastrous—a signal to potential proliferators everywhere that they should spin up their centrifuges and fuel up their rockets if they want to live.

During the past two decades, no one has discouraged friendly engagement with North Korea more forcefully than National Security Adviser John Bolton, who was conspicuously absent from Korea during the historic concession to Kim Jong Un. Just hours after the DMZ crossing, Bolton tweeted out a photograph of himself 1,200 miles away in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. Accompanying Trump in lieu of Bolton was the Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who recently called Bolton a “tapeworm” infesting Trump’s administration. Bolton’s fellow tapeworm and top Korea adviser, Matthew Pottinger, accompanied him in Mongolia.

For those youngsters who might not get why this is hilarious, let me enlighten you with a bit of Cold War history, courtesy of Wikipedia:

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Molotov was a Soviet politician and diplomat, an Old Bolshevik, and a leading figure in the Soviet government from the 1920s, when he rose to power as a protégé of Joseph Stalin. Molotov served as Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars (Premier) from 1930 to 1941, and as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1939 to 1949 and from 1953 to 1956. He served as First Deputy Premier from 1942 to 1957, when he was dismissed from the Presidium of the Central Committee by Nikita Khrushchev.

In June 1956, Molotov was removed as Foreign Minister; on 29 June 1957, he was expelled from the Presidium (Politburo) after a failed attempt to remove Khrushchev as First Secretary. Although Molotov's faction initially won a vote in the Presidium, 7–4, to remove Khrushchev, the latter refused to resign unless a Central Committee plenum decided so. In the plenum, which met from 22 to 29 June, Molotov and his faction were defeated. Eventually he was banished, being made ambassador to the Mongolian People's Republic.[

For many years "banished to Outer Mongolia" was a joking way of referring to someone who'd cross the Powers That Be and been sent to a far away place; and someone just did it to Bolton (and while I have no doubt Trump is capable of inflicting petty indignities on his subordinates, I doubt he has this much wit).

[Easo]

So when the Iran tried to "not capture" the British tanker on Wednesday I think they really did not help their case. EU is the last ones with at least some faith still left. Now brits are sending second warship to protect their shipping.
Also, this kinda made me laugh:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48938854

Uranium enrichment breaches are extortion, says US

Yes, yes it is. But Iran did not start it first.

[Skroe]

I am asking you to elaborate because there are zero similarities to what we have here.

Kellhound is refering to Operation Praying Mantis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis


Basically in Spring 1988, a US Navy frigate struck a mine laid by the Iranian Navy and almost sank. The US Navy recovered and disarmed other mines in the Persian Gulf (the Iranian regieme began a mining campaign). So the US decided to annihilate the Iranian Navy in retaliation.

On on April 18th 1988 a US carrier strike group, captured and destroyed some oil rigs, and sank every ship it could. The Iranians challenged the US Navy... that went as well as could be expected. With most the Iranian Navy damaged or destroyed, the US ceased its assault.

Operation Praying Mantis is notable for two reasons. First, it was and remains the largest US Naval battle since World War II. Secondly and more significantly, it represented the first combat use of missiles (cruise an ballistic) in a naval conflict by and towards the US Navy, which up to that point had been largely speculative. To put it in historic context, the US Navy began developing the Aegis Combat System in the 1970s, recognizing that cheap missiles could easily destroy expensive warships. But it was purley speculative. Nobody had fired a missile at a US Navy ship, and vice versa. Operation Praying Mantis saw Iran fire some Chinese-sourced Silkworm cruise missiles at US Navy ships, which had to be shot down or intercepted (by the then new Aegis or aircraft) or they would damage or destroy their targets. The US also fired missiles at Iranian Naval targets.

In an even larger historical context, World War II saw the use of aircraft carriers to push Naval combat largely out of visual range. The role of Battleships and big, deck mounted guns in general was far less than anticipated... defeated by carrier based aircraft that dropped bombs. World War II made the battleship obsolete and coalesenced surface combat, for a time, largely around the idea of flying out aircraft and firing things from that aircraft. Operation Praying Mantis pressaged the follow up era, in which the aircraft was replaced, at least in theory, by the missile, and the missile absolutely had to be intercepted, necessitating a new kind of defense and strategy. Now the US Navy still uses carriers because bombs are cheap ($60,000-$200,000 bomb, versus $1.6 million for a missile) and carriers are versatile, but as we see with China and Russia today, they're growing their fleet with small ships that carry a lot of missiles... so called "missile boats". Even the US Navy is doing this. It's new Frigate (a small, 5000-6000 ton ship, about 1/2 to 1/3rd smaller than a destroyer), of which it will buy many dozens in coming decades, will carry at least 32 vertical launching missile tubes.

In short Operation Praying Mantis was a preview of the world to come, and one we're largely in. An aggressor causes an international incident through a mining operation of a strategic waterway. One party (in this case the US) feels its rights challenged. And then they fire a lot of cheap missiles at each other that could, in theory, wreck a lot of expensive things. And these missiles will hit unless they get intercepted.

Oh and by the way, wan to know what the next nightmare is? US, Russian and European missiles remained the only ones worth talking about for decades because they required specialized electronics, expensive materials and difficult machining that 3rd world actors and terrorists group couldn't replicate. 3D Printing is rapidly changing that, as is commercial off the shelf guidance systems, like those found in store bought drones. Terrorist groups are even using their own commercial drone swarms now, that they're equipping with explosives. The sequel to what Operation Praying Mantis previewed is a world where the US launched an attack on a country like Iran, and Iran (several decades from now) fires a long range cruise missile at US bases in Italy, or Florida. The idea that only one side can hit and the other can't hit back saw an early preview of the end coming in Praying Mantis. It's going to get a lot worse.

[Kontinuum]

Iran has seized an oil tanker it claimed was carrying 1 million liters of "smuggled fuel," state news agency Press TV said on Thursday.

The semi-official Fars news agency said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces ambushed the tanker, carrying 12 people on board, on Sunday.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/18/m...ntl/index.html

[Kreuger]

1 tanker with brittish flag was captured by Iran earlier today, and seemingly a second one aswell later on

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKCN1UE295

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they have captured British oil tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state television reported on Friday.

https://twitter.com/conflictsw/statu...064735744?s=21

Liberian flagged Tanker Mesdar heading to Saudi Arabia turned into Iranian waters and slowed down and is heading towards the Iranian mainland. The Mesdar is owned by a British company - Norbulk Shipping UK
#Iran #UK

[Easo]

I would say they just made a huge mistake by doing exactly what they have been accused of.
Praying Mantis 2 the Electric Boogaloo?

[caervek]

This is turning into a complete mess, Trump had better sort it and get our tankers back >.>

[Kellhound]

UK is a strong independent nation that needs no outside help.

The UK of 2019 is NOT the UK of 1979, its power projection capability is sadly limited.

[Shalcker]

This is turning into a complete mess, Trump had better sort it and get our tankers back >.>

You (likely) just need to release Iranian tanker to get yours back. No need to involve Trump.

[kasuke06]

You (likely) just need to release Iranian tanker to get yours back. No need to involve Trump.

Or just sink those pirates whenever they try. It's one of their oldest tricks, flying a flag that'll get them passage until it's convenient to show their true colors. Who's to say that ship of armed men speeding up to your tanker is really under the flag they're flying? Better sink it to be safe, pirates are active in these waters and they match the description and tactics.

The response needs to be harsh, fast, and firm as steel.

[Shalcker]

Or just sink those pirates whenever they try. It's one of their oldest tricks, flying a flag that'll get them passage until it's convenient to show their true colors. Who's to say that ship of armed men speeding up to your tanker is really under the flag they're flying? Better sink it to be safe, pirates are active in these waters and they match the description and tactics.

The response needs to be harsh, fast, and firm as steel.

Or you can just release tanker you seized with your marines under questionable pretence. Or do you want your marines to get sunk as well next?

Those situations are perfectly equivalent; if you don't want to be repaid in kind maybe you shouldn't start.

[kasuke06]

Or you can just release tanker you seized with your marines under questionable pretence. Or do you want your marines to get sunk as well next?

Those situations are perfectly equivalent; if you don't want to be repaid in kind maybe you shouldn't start.

They took two, actually.They have therefore doubled the stakes in escalation. But don't let little things like facts get in your way.

[Shalcker]

They took two, actually.They have therefore doubled the stakes in escalation. But don't let little things like facts get in your way.

I'm sure if you'll release theirs they'll release yours as well.

Are they equivalent by tonnage? Maybe they are just trying to get equivalent amount of oil rather then same number of vessels.

Went to check:
Seized by UK:
GRACE 1 (IMO: 9116412) is a Crude Oil Tanker registered and sailing under the flag of Panama. Her gross tonnage is 156880 and deadweight is 300579.

Seized by Iran:
STENA IMPERO (IMO: 9797400) is a Chemical/Oil Products Tanker registered and sailing under the flag of United Kingdom. Her gross tonnage is 29579 and deadweight is 49683.

MESDAR (IMO: 9452672) is a Crude Oil Tanker registered and sailing under the flag of Liberia. Her gross tonnage is 160295 and deadweight is 315802.

Looks close enough.

[Easo]

Or you can just release tanker you seized with your marines under questionable pretence. Or do you want your marines to get sunk as well next?

Those situations are perfectly equivalent; if you don't want to be repaid in kind maybe you shouldn't start.

And realistically, the only ones sinking will be those guys on the small boats. Maybe, just maybe Iran could try to NOT flex muscles? It does not help their case.

[caervek]

UK is a strong independent nation that needs no outside help.

Trumps mess, he can fix it.

[caervek]

But the happenings of the rest of the world don't have an effect on Britain.

Could you clarify your meaning please, your post doesn't make much contextual sense.

[Shalcker]

Trumps mess, he can fix it.

But you're the ones who stole Iranian tanker, not Trump...

[dribbles]

I'm memeing at the expense of brexiteers.

Brexiteers don't really care about a captured Swedish ship with no UK citizens onboard flying a British flag of convenience, probably for financial reasons to escape the punitive EU tax regime.

They would use the episode as a further reason to justify Brexit. The quicker we leave the quicker we do not have to enforce EU sanctions on their behalf, leaving that to the EU navy (lols).

Post Brexit we won't be enforcing EU anything let alone seizing Iranian ships for them.

So meme away, whilst you still can.

[kasuke06]

Brexiteers don't really care about a captured Swedish ship with no UK citizens onboard flying a British flag of convenience, probably for financial reasons to escape the punitive EU tax regime.

They would use the episode as a further reason to justify Brexit. The quicker we leave the quicker we do not have to enforce EU sanctions on their behalf, leaving that to the EU navy (lols).

Post Brexit we won't be enforcing EU anything let alone seizing Iranian ships for them.

So meme away, whilst you still can.

The EU has a navy?

[dribbles]

The EU has a navy?

It's an extremely stealthy one for sure!