Is your jobs safe are you A.I and Robot Proof?

[minteK917]

Actually they will likely make robots to repair other robots.

Its gona take a shit load of a long time for robots to be even close lol. I work with these machines enough to know how advanced it is. We arent even 30 years close to them being even able to troubleshoot themselves, let alone repair or reprogram. Automation works because it is dumb and effective because it is focused. Until we can make proper Androids, repairing a machine is too complex of many tasks at once, it is manual labor, electricity and electronic troubleshooting and programing. The robot repairing the other dumber robots would be even more complex and even more prone to need repair on top of it.

The smartest thing we have in industrial automation right now are semi auto programming machines. For example an Arm, that instead of doing old school programming to tell it exactly how to take optimal movement for its given task. You can give him only the locations you want him to move to and he will do the math of how to best get the movement done himself. Its not 100% all the time, but its the best we have right now, saves a shitload of programming time (except the arm still gotta be programmed to be able to program its own path obviously). But after this one software is made, you can now simply give him multiple task without too much programming.

The problem with repair and robots, is that for now and a long while, AI and robots are 100% programmed by people to do things specifically. Robots can only work in context they are designed and programmed for. The basis of the hardest repairs are often that something unexpected happened, hence, if its not expected we did not program it. Until you have a full android with an AI that can act and pick up tool and use them in unexpected way, something we are very far off, Robots cannot repair themselves. They could maintenance themselves to some degree, but again if something is unusuale and the robot is not programmed to see it, he will not see a potential problem during its maintenance, while a real person or a full AI might deduce that an unexpected problem might be arriving soon or a situation might look unsual but the experience and reflection of a real person or a full AI might say this is currently still in a working state even if its not standard. While a simple robot will not be able to do any distinction.

[Kellhound]

Its gona take a shit load of a long time for robots to be even close lol. I work with these machines enough to know how advanced it is. We arent even 30 years close to them being even able to troubleshoot themselves, let alone repair or reprogram. Automation works because it is dumb and effective because it is focused. Until we can make proper Androids, repairing a machine is too complex of many tasks at once, it is manual labor, electricity and electronic troubleshooting and programing. The robot repairing the other dumber robots would be even more complex and even more prone to need repair on top of it.

The smartest thing we have in industrial automation right now are semi auto programming machines. For example an Arm, that instead of doing old school programming to tell it exactly how to take optimal movement for its given task. You can give him only the locations you want him to move to and he will do the math of how to best get the movement done himself. Its not 100% all the time, but its the best we have right now, saves a shitload of programming time (except the arm still gotta be programmed to be able to program its own path obviously). But after this one software is made, you can now simply give him multiple task without too much programming.

Which of course reduces the need for the lower level programmers to write the boring code....

As for repairing machines, that really depends on what level of repair you are talking about. Troubleshooting and replacing assemblies (if properly designed for it) is something that can be automated fairly easily, but not cost effectively.

[minteK917]

Which of course reduces the need for the lower level programmers to write the boring code....

As for repairing machines, that really depends on what level of repair you are talking about. Troubleshooting and replacing assemblies (if properly designed for it) is something that can be automated fairly easily, but not cost effectively.

To be fair this is so basic programming the guy doing electricity, troubleshooting and mechanic repair is often the one doing it already in most cases. Real programmers would make the software that is needed for the Arm to be able to makes its own path. So it saves time for the guy on the ground, he still needs to be there to tell the robot you gotta move to all these 13 places and end in each of them this way. But now instead of taking him 3 hours, it takes him 30 minutes.

The problem again is first troubleshooting and robots you are confusing with simple warning and maintenance. Many machines now can warn you of expected things if designed for it. This gearbox on me need new oil, because i have the device to test it on my unit, purging oil, putting new oil, stuff like that. Its maintenance stuff. No machine we have anytime soon can go, well something unexpected fell on this track, i have destroyed half my gears pushing against it. If its not supposed to happen the machines just wont know what to do and we arent anywhere close to machine that can both think and do things that there is no design for. Like i said until full Androids with full AI, you cant have machines do real repairs on one another and the repair machine is always WAY more expensive then the machines it would be repairing, way more complex and be even more complex to repair if the repair unit breaks.

Basicly repairing machines is creativity 101, you are needed when things dont go as programmed. It will be as i said when AI is smart enough to think just like a person outside of programming and have a body that is not single purpose. When that happens, AI can also draw, sing, paint and do costumer services like a human too, essensially when Robots can repair the unexpected, it can do every single job we ever had ever.

[Doctor Amadeus]

To be fair this is so basic programming the guy doing electricity, troubleshooting and mechanic repair is often the one doing it already in most cases. Real programmers would make the software that is needed for the Arm to be able to makes its own path. So it saves time for the guy on the ground, he still needs to be there to tell the robot you gotta move to all these 13 places and end in each of them this way. But now instead of taking him 3 hours, it takes him 30 minutes.

The problem again is first troubleshooting and robots you are confusing with simple warning. Many machines now can warn you of expected things if designed for it. This gearbox on me need new oil, because i have the device to test it on my unit, purging oil, putting new oil, stuff like that. Its maintenance stuff. No machine we have anytime soon can go, well something unexpected fell on this track, i have destroyed half my gears pushing against it. If its not supposed to happen the machines just wont know what to do and we arent anywhere close to machine that can both think and do things that there is no design for. Like i said until full Androids with full AI, you cant have machines do real repairs on one another and the repair machine is always WAY more expensive then the machines it would be repairing, way more complex and be even more complex to repair itself.

Well at least the rest will need you when humanity rises up to slay the electronic beast LOL!

[minteK917]

Well at least the rest will need you when humanity rises up to slay the electronic beast LOL!

Im not scared of the AI at all. Dumb machines are more dangerous to our economies then AI ever will. Full AI is still a pipe dream, like faster then light space travel. If you are currently scared by the prospect of Full AI on the economy, id be more scared of dumb automated space ship with 0 intellect before the end of the century effectivly mining rare material in the Asteroids belt crashing the price as all the "rare" material on earth becoming worthless in price.

[Kellhound]

To be fair this is so basic programming the guy doing electricity, troubleshooting and mechanic repair is often the one doing it already in most cases. Real programmers would make the software that is needed for the Arm to be able to makes its own path. So it saves time for the guy on the ground, he still needs to be there to tell the robot you gotta move to all these 13 places and end in each of them this way. But now instead of taking him 3 hours, it takes him 30 minutes.

The problem again is first troubleshooting and robots you are confusing with simple warning. Many machines now can warn you of expected things if designed for it. This gearbox on me need new oil, because i have the device to test it on my unit, purging oil, putting new oil, stuff like that. Its maintenance stuff. No machine we have anytime soon can go, well something unexpected fell on this track, i have destroyed half my gears pushing against it. If its not supposed to happen the machines just wont know what to do and we arent anywhere close to machine that can both think and do things that there is no design for. Like i said until full Androids with full AI, you cant have machines do real repairs on one another and the repair machine is always WAY more expensive then the machines it would be repairing, way more complex and be even more complex to repair if the repair unit breaks.

Troubleshooting to the module is pretty easy, and troubleshooting to the component level shouldn't happen on the floor. See my point of (if properly designed for it).

It not a matter if it is technically possible (which it is), but if it makes economic sense (which it doesn't).

[minteK917]

Troubleshooting to the module is pretty easy, and troubleshooting to the component level shouldn't happen on the floor. See my point of (if properly designed for it).

It not a matter if it is technically possible (which it is), but if it makes economic sense (which it doesn't).

Troubleshooting and not repairing on the floor means you are losing thousands to millions in productions in many situation. Again you are going on the basis that you can program to know what happened and how to repair it. Even if your machine is only some modules, what if the breaking actually made it impossible to replace your modules as programmed? You dont seems to be someone that repair much industrial machinery if you think you can program easily real repairs. Im not talking about maintenance where you can go replace this before it ran 5000 hours or replace this module when it stops working or reach this temperature.

We have never achived a machine that can repair the unexpected, because it cannot be programmed without full AI.

[Doctor Amadeus]

Im not scared of the AI at all. Dumb machines are more dangerous to our economies then AI ever will. Full AI is still a pipe dream, like faster then light space travel. If you are currently scared by the prospect of Full AI on the economy, id be more scared of dumb automated space ship with 0 intellect before the end of the century effectivly mining rare material in the Asteroids belt crashing the price as all the "rare" material on earth becoming worthless in price.

I don't know something about going from "Have you tried turn it off and turning it back on after 30 seconds" a joke you probably heard more than enough LOL to A.I that if something goes wrong can unplug and turn you off. I am big believer for actual A.I that it would require emotion and emotion often times clouds logic and cold reason.

Nothing like the prospect of say a Military Tank with A.I going through terrible 2's

[minteK917]

I don't know something about going from "Have you tried turn it off and turning it back on after 30 seconds" a joke you probably heard more than enough LOL to A.I that if something goes wrong can unplug and turn you off. I am big believer for actual A.I that it would require emotion and emotion often times clouds logic and cold reason.

Nothing like the prospect of say a Military Tank with A.I going through terrible 2's

Just like industrial machiniry giving AI to say a Tank sounds pretty pointless, better it be automated instead. More effective this way. Making the tank too creative is kinda pointless, hell it might even hinder its job the point of automated weaponary is also that they are ruthless and obey. Giving the ability to think about its action makes ruthless and obey not as easily achievable. You can make it automated and smart, as much as a tank needs to be. Kinda like automatic cars, automatic cars arent AI, they are very dumb, they only know what is programmed automatically not with reasoning.

Hell imagine we have two Army of tanks, mines are smart but automated tanks not AI. The others are AI tanks, the AI tanks are more expensive for sure, if they are smart enough some might literally flee if they can or avoid damage to themselves at all cost. While my army of cheaper dumb tank dont give a shit about anything just automaticly do as programmed. Reasoning of an AI is a good tool, but not for single minded purpose.

[StillMcfuu]

No my job is safe unless we have a massive leap forward in AI to singularity levels.

[Kellhound]

Troubleshooting and not repairing on the floor means you are losing thousands and millions in productions in many situation. Again you are going on the basis that you can program to know what happened and how to repair it. Even if your machine is only some modules, what if the breaking actually made it impossible to replace your modules as programmed? You dont seems to be someone that repair much industrial machinery if you think you can program easily real repairs. Im not talking about maintenance where you can go replace this before it ran 5000 hours.

We have never achived a machine that can repair the unexpected, because it cannot be programmed without full AI.

You replace assemblies on the floor, and repair those on a bench. To do otherwise brings a line down far longer than needed in most cases. I spent over 20 years as an electronics technician before going into programming (my eyes are getting bad and I REALLY hat working on 0201 and smaller parts). It has been my experience that truly unexpected failures are both rare and very difficult for most technicians to repair. After a system has been in use for awhile, most of the time you know what the failure cause is just from the failure condition.

[Ghostpanther]

The job I had before I retired, can not be automated. It was a work group supervisor which entailed managing people on 3 different shifts. And the jobs they did, I can not imagine a robot doing them. Repairing/testing very sensitive/secret guidance control systems for air and sea units. One day, maybe some of those systems can be updated to not need repairs or testing, but to the best of my knowledge, they have not been replaced yet. Improved some I am sure.

[Kellhound]

The job I had before I retired, can not be automated. It was a work group supervisor which entailed managing people on 3 different shifts. And the jobs they did, I can not imagine a robot doing them. Repairing/testing very sensitive/secret guidance control systems for air and sea units. One day, maybe some of those systems can be updated to not need repairs or testing, but to the best of my knowledge, they have not been replaced yet. Improved some I am sure.

I hope those systems didn't include the older Sea Sparrows.......

[Ghostpanther]

I hope those systems didn't include the older Sea Sparrows.......

Not any that I remember. But they may have added some systems since I worked there. My security clearances expired a while back after I retired.

[Kellhound]

Not any that I remember. But they may have added some systems since I worked there. My security clearances expired a while back after I retired.

Lol, you are lucky then. They were a laughing stock back in the day....

[Queen of Hamsters]

If they can come up with an AI that can give stupid people answers that tethers a fine line between telling them what's what and calling them outright retarded, then my job will be in danger.

Otherwise, I'm safe.

[Vash The Stampede]

If they can come up with an AI that can give stupid people answers that tethers a fine line between telling them what's what and calling them outright retarded, then my job will be in danger.

Otherwise, I'm safe.

AI wouldn't replace you, it would replace the stupid people you're calling retarded. You would just be fired since you're services wouldn't be needed.

[Logwyn]

I think teachers will be around for some time to come. Careers I would be worried about in the near-mid future are accounting and anything related to transport.

Current research lends towards the best way children learn is from another human through social interactions. Until Westworld type robots come around then I think teachering and education is safe.

[segara82]

Pretty simple: all desk jobs are on borrowed time. Some will be done by humans longer than others. I firmly believe that jobs involving manual labor will be safer. Analyzing the stock market? Sure, a ANN can do that. Robots being able to stock the shelves in the grocery store? We're faaar away from that.

Bolded part is wrong, sorry. All you need to do is switch shelves and current robots can stock them. Sure, a recent addition but already available.
https://www.aitrends.com/robotics/wa...stock-shelves/

Unsafe jobs:
Anything behind a desk.
Doctors in certain fields like radiology or for perfoming surgery,
Lawyers (since presenting someone before a bar/jury is maybe only 20% of their work),
Transportation,
Food services and food-prep (you might need to redesign the whole kitchen and building from the ground up, but we have them already),
clerical work and callcenters,
retail,
manufacturing,
...
those together are more than 50% of all jobs in our western world. And yes, my current and all previous jobs are among those.


Safe jobs:
Repair jobs of most kinds, think plumber, carpenter and AC-repair
Certain STEM-fields,

[Muzjhath]

Troubleshooting and not repairing on the floor means you are losing thousands to millions in productions in many situation. Again you are going on the basis that you can program to know what happened and how to repair it. Even if your machine is only some modules, what if the breaking actually made it impossible to replace your modules as programmed? You dont seems to be someone that repair much industrial machinery if you think you can program easily real repairs. Im not talking about maintenance where you can go replace this before it ran 5000 hours or replace this module when it stops working or reach this temperature.

We have never achived a machine that can repair the unexpected, because it cannot be programmed without full AI.

Except in manufacturing you don't want to troubleshoot and repair on the floor to the largest degree possible.
You want a system that tells you what is broken. A spare part to install ASAP, and then repair the broken part of the production line in the workshop if possible, otherwise throw that out while you order a new spare part since you used one up.

Most modern systems will nine times out of ten also tell you what module broke so you, the human, don't need to trouble shoot where something messed up. You just need to remove the part of the larger machine.

In the case of Injection moulding the modern machines that old the tools are stupidly electric these days and I'd be willing to bet that as long as nothing huge breaks that they can signal down to fairly serious parts breaking. Same with robot arms to pick up products. The hardest thing is if the tool breaks since those aren't standardized. However the company I work at have two or three tools per machine for the products they run serious production of. Just so they can run one, service one, and have one in back up most of the time.

Can a machine fix the broken modules yet? No, but that's an economic issue as Kellhound said. Not worth developing that software (yet) compared to the human cost of an employee doing it. Mostly since you'd need specific software for every part and can't have a "general" piece as things stand today. And to many products in to many industries are specific and not standardized. Which goes back to my previous paragraph. Engels injector mould machines are built to standard patterns so having those self trouble shoot today is just a matter of design. Fixing parts once replaced would be the same but would demand people buy those systems etc.
Since it's standard parts having a scripted fix wouldn't be that tricky. The fault lines would be known so trouble shooting would be possible.

Still, development cost, parts cost, v human cost. In this question that's what it comes down to in manufacturing.

Edit:
As for my personal jobb. I work in cleaning clean rooms. Could be replaced by a machine, however the development cost in that robot is probably stupidly high compared to just paying some humans to do it. So for now I see my job as fairly safe.