Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Gestopft]

Something Sanders supporters have never understood is that the Democratic Party is not, or will never be a Workers Party (and the US never has had a legitimate national workers party),

True, but the post WW2 Democratic Party did a better job of it...

and workers parties, like unions, have historically been among the most racist and intolerant, or at the very least racially tone deaf, groupings of people in society.

...until Civil Rights happened (among other things) and the New Deal coalition came apart. But looking into the future, however, Millennials and Gen Z are about 45% non-white. And since whites will probably continue to disproportionately populate the professional class, the power of racist whites to dominate working class politics will be diminished.

Bernie's Sanders's years long problems with blacks and hispanics isn't a bug. It's a functional part of his Workers Party-lite political approach (or at least, the approach of his supporters, because Sanders campaign is certainly broader than typical Workers Party faire).

This is now a myth. Take a look at the detailed breakdown in some recent polling. Black voters are about 20% of the Democratic electorate, and about 20% of Sanders' supporters are black. Hispanic voters are MORE likely than the overall Democratic electorate to support Sanders. This is of course driven by the youngest age cohorts, which are both the most diverse, and also the most likely to support Sanders.

Democrats are also a coalition, but the internal dynamics of the party have prevented a far left ideological take over.

Progressives would also blame the moneyed interests for this. Pro-business candidates have an easier time fundraising (from wealthy and corporate donors), and the Party likes candidates that don't need as much help.

This is why the Bernie-inspired leftward tug of Democrats is hugely dangerous to the long term health of the party.

Tug it...toward where the party used to be historically? Tug it...toward actually representing the voters' opinions? But wait! Aren't more than half of Democrats likely to identify as 'moderate' or 'conservative'? Yeah, but self-id polls are pretty meaningless when it comes to determining actual policy. If you look at polls on individual issues, 2/3ds (or more) of Democratic voters support (in aggregate) a wealth tax, paid parental leave, univeral pre-K, M4A, Free College, a $15 minimum wage, overturning Citizens United, and worker co-determination. Some of these are even popular with Republicans. Granted, some have become fully mainstream within the party, but plenty haven't. So the goal of Progressives isn't just "pull the party to the left," it's "have a party that more accurately represents its voters." If the Democratic Party was actually doing a better job at this, Bernie (an independent) wouldn't have been able to go from a nobody to competing with the person that most Democrats had probably assumed they would be voting for since 2009.

Not to mention that Demographics and circumstances are highly likely to move the country to the left anyway, at least on most issues. Sanders and Warren's side clearly has ideological momentum and energy. Social conservatives are growing increasingly skeptical of the GoP's market dogmatism. Millennials are on pace to be the first modern generation to end up poorer than their parents. Millennials and Gen Z get to enjoy less wealth, higher healthcare, college, and housing costs, the 'joys' of the gig economy, not to mention the decades that have brought stagnant wages and near-record inequality, and all of the financial burdens previous generations are laying on them. The future is going to move left: but for now, the conflict at least as big as (if not bigger than) the Left/Center-left conflict is the generational one. Sanders and Warren are the most popular with the younger age cohorts (far more popular than the actual Millennial in the running), and the issues that drive their politics aren't going away any time soon.

consider the nutters who want to drive out Senator Manchin. How insane is that. They want to drive out the only Democrat who can win in West Virginia? The man who may one day be the guy who gives the 50th or 51st vote to make Chuck Schumer majority leader in the Senate? They want to give that in the name of ideological purity? Are they stupid or just completely insane?

I agree with the overall point, but Joe Manchin has said on record that he wouldn't vote for Bernie over Trump. He fails the most basic test- not just for a Democrat but for an American. So fuck Joe Manchin.

But my biggest problem with the Joe Manchins of the party isn't whether or not they have to skew conservative on particular issues, it's that they are the biggest recipients of Wall Street money. Voters are center-left on economic issues. The biggest unrepresented bloc of voters is those that are center-left to left economically but socially conservative. That should be the target for Red State Democrats, but that doesn't usually seem to be the case. The big donors certainly don't want that.

Give me fewer Joe Donnellys and more Sherrod Browns (who I think would've made a good candidate).

This is why I am elated that 2020 represents the end of Bernie Sanders, who will have no real legacy. Oh sure, the progressive left is temporarily re-energized and some ideas from the left have moved into the Democratic mainstream.

I wouldn't be so sure about his legacy.

For the reasons I described above, the Progressive left isn't going away any time soon. The actual organizing is just getting started. As the age of the Boomers fades, the influence of Millennials will increase. And again: their favorite candidate is Bernie Sanders. He's not exactly going to be forgotten. 20-30 years down the road, when some Millennial president finally signs a bill to deliver universal healthcare, they're going to name the damn bill (or at least something else) after him. So while lots of Progressives deeply want Sanders to be the next FDR, he won't be, due to the realities you have described- if he were to win, he would probably have a quite disappointing presidency. I do, however, think that he could be the next Barry Goldwater.

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Imagine where he would be if instead of "American Carnage" he opened his Presidency intent on uniting the country and being a President for all, instead of playing to the most extreme elements of the right.

For a while I've thought that if instead of letting the Congressional GoP set the agenda, he'd started with an infrastructure bill, his whole presidency would've been a lot better for him. He could've used the momentum of his surprise win and control over the GoP to hold their feet to the fire about actually spending some money, and he could've put Democrats in the uncomfortable position of having to choose between voting for popular legislation (that they want to do too) and a base that doesn't want to see them work with Trump.

But Trump being Trump, he was never going to do this.

[Draco-Onis]

I'm more thinking about the "non-voters", people who have zero trust in candidates to the point that they will just stay at home. It's one of the things that really harmed Clinton.

That's been trending upwards since 2016, the non voters mostly have to do with a combination of the electoral college and people not thinking Trump would win. Trump is so polarizing he's whipped the electorate into a frenzy.

[Dextroden]

That's been trending upwards since 2016, the non voters mostly have to do with a combination of the electoral college and people not thinking Trump would win. Trump is so polarizing he's whipped the electorate into a frenzy.

You'd think people would stand in the rain to prevent the 2nd Holocaust and 4th Reich after people screamed he was a white supremacist and would kill all the non-whites. I wonder why so many people stayed home instead of stopping him.

[Ghostpanther]

Biden got into a Boomer fight. It's adorable.



Context (also its hard to hear): Man asked Biden about his son, saying that Biden was involved in pay-to-play and no better than Trump. He calls Biden a Boomer (well he said Biden is too old). Biden said, "OK, Boomer, bet you can't do more push ups than me!" Frightened Zoomer takes the mic from the OG Boomer, all the other Boomers clap for Biden.

Good thing Biden did not challenge him to a wrestling match. Or a arm wrestling.

[Orbitus]

When someone gets so upset at something that they keep saying isn’t true, there is usually some guilt involved. Usually people that keep calm in these kinds of situations are the innocent or psychopathic.

What a load of bullshit. If someone slandered me like that, I would be just as pissed off. Especially since that old guy probably watches Fox News and probably believes the conspiracy bullshit they are pushing thanks to John Solomon and fucking Sean Hannity.

[Draco-Onis]

He has whipped some people into a frenzy, and others into a stupor; the people in a frenzy are easier to spot. There are also people that will never publicly admit voting for him, but will do so non-the less.

I don’t know if he will win this time around, but I’m not so sure as Skroe is that he will lose.

Mathematically speaking as the president this election is his to lose we don't have many one term presidents but like I said earlier a lot of time between now and the election. That's not even going into the possibility that the democratic convention could be a shit show and we may not know who the nominee is for even longer.

[Ghostpanther]

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When someone gets so upset at something that they keep saying isn’t true, there is usually some guilt involved. Usually people that keep calm in these kinds of situations are the innocent or psychopathic.

That's a excellent point. Of course it is true in my opinion. He used his position as VP to help his son get preferred treatment.

[Dextroden]

What a load of bullshit. If someone slandered me like that, I would be just as pissed off. Especially since that old guy probably watches Fox News and probably believes the conspiracy bullshit they are pushing thanks to John Solomon and fucking Sean Hannity.

And then, according to modern logic, you'd be unfit to be president because of how unprofessional you are. Because we care about that now.

Or, more correctly. It's unprofessional if someone you don't like does it. Like telling off hecklers.

[JohnBrown1917]

What a load of bullshit. If someone slandered me like that, I would be just as pissed off. Especially since that old guy probably watches Fox News and probably believes the conspiracy bullshit they are pushing thanks to John Solomon and fucking Sean Hannity.

Just because fox news tries to spin it does not change anything about Hunter's actions.

[Daelak]

That's a excellent point. Of course it is true in my opinion. He used his position as VP to help his son get preferred treatment.

Where's the evidence? On the contrary, look at the entire Trump family in the WH with absolutely no qualifications and they couldn't even pass a security clearance.

[Beefhammer]

He has whipped some people into a frenzy, and others into a stupor; the people in a frenzy are easier to spot. There are also people that will never publicly admit voting for him, but will do so non-the less.

I don’t know if he will win this time around, but I’m not so sure as Skroe is that he will lose.

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When someone gets so upset at something that they keep saying isn’t true, there is usually some guilt involved. Usually people that keep calm in these kinds of situations are the innocent or psychopathic.

So then, I just want to make sure that you believe Trump is a guilty ass MFer and should be impeached?

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That's a excellent point. Of course it is true in my opinion. He used his position as VP to help his son get preferred treatment.

What evidence? The GOP talking points? Becasue Burisma was not under investigation when Biden and the EU were pressuring Ukraine to get rid of their corrupt AG.

[Yoshingo]

That's a excellent point. Of course it is true in my opinion. He used his position as VP to help his son get preferred treatment.

This is a flatout lie.

Just saying. We should stop being nice and just call disingenuous liars what they are.

Liars.

[Draco-Onis]

When someone gets so upset at something that they keep saying isn’t true, there is usually some guilt involved. Usually people that keep calm in these kinds of situations are the innocent or psychopathic.

Actually I disagree I think Biden has a lot of people telling him to be more aggressive, he was lambasted for his initial reaction to this he was basically the last to ask for Trump to be impeached. I don't want Biden to win but I don't see how Trump supporters have the balls to criticize him on his reaction seeing who they worship, the guy is basically a 24/7 raw nerve on twitter.

Last but not least it maybe his son but he was and is a grown man it's not like Biden could order him to not do things it's not like he was a 13 year old kid.

[Skroe]

He has whipped some people into a frenzy, and others into a stupor; the people in a frenzy are easier to spot. There are also people that will never publicly admit voting for him, but will do so non-the less.

I don’t know if he will win this time around, but I’m not so sure as Skroe is that he will lose.

I give Trump a slight favorite to win. About 60%. Incumbency is a powerful thing. And Democracts spent months engaging in a series of fantasies. Oh and Bernie Sanders will not concede until the just before the convention because he's a bad person who is not on the same team as everyone who wants to take down Trump.

But the fact that the economy is roaring, unemployment is low and Trump has hovered between 36% and 42% for nearly three years just underscores what a farce this Administration is and how if and when it goes down, it will be by far the most likely scenario that it gets in its own way. He should be enjoying a 54-58% approval rating.

But that being said, little of consequence has happened yet in the election. That's still well ahead of us. Many voters are not tuned in yet. Really, it comes down to Wisconsin. Trump is very unlikely to carry Michigan in 2020. Pennsylvania I'd say he is far less likely to carry than the Democrat if that Democrat is Biden. It comes down to the yokels of Wisconsin. Fortunately Democrats are working their asses off to lock down Wisconsin. It *should* work. But it may not. I don't trust the yokels of America to do the right thing.

And again, Trump's complete loss of the suburbs is making it likely that Nancy Pelosi expands her House majority in 2020 and Trump suffers a much larger popular vote loss as a whole. The question is, will the loss of the suburbs swing Wisconsin? From what I've seen, yes it should. Will it for sure? Who knows. Again, I don't trust those fucking yokels to do the right thing when they are alone in a polling booth.

So Trump has a 60% chance of getting re-elected. The good news is, he has tons of time to create opportunities to self destruct before the election, and because he is a deeply sick man who cannot help himself, he is very likely to do so.

[Yoshingo]

Actually I disagree I think Biden has a lot of people telling him to be more aggressive

Pretty much. One of Biden's largest criticisms is his naive thought he'll be able to come together with the other side and work on anything. Maybe in the past, maybe in the future, but right now? Republicans won't work with ANY Democrat on ANYTHING in the short term.

Seeing him waffle around trying to be nice to them when they're utter scumbags to him and his family was so obnoxious.

It was refreshing to see him call out this obvious plant a liar, because he is. Much like Ghostpanther was for repeating the lie. Can we all just stop being nice to liars repeating lies meant to spread misinformation?

[Beefhammer]

I think Trump looks after Trump... I think he is guilty. I don’t think impeaching him is a good idea for multiple reasons.

So, it is OK to just allow this precedent of a president breaking the law and violating the constitution because of reasons? You don't let the bully rule the yard. You have to fight back.

[Skroe]

I think Trump looks after Trump... I think he is guilty. I don’t think impeaching him is a good idea for multiple reasons.

Of course you don't. Least stunning plot twist of this entire saga. I would have been stunned if you did.

Man some of you folks parents' did a bang up job instilling any sense of morality, ethics, honestly and consequences when growing up, and here you are as adults and you let wrong doing after wrong doing go unpunished. You concoct outlandish reasons as to why it isn't right to bring down the executioner's ax.

Really. Holy shit. Like what the fuck happened?

[JohnBrown1917]

Pretty much. One of Biden's largest criticisms is his naive thought he'll be able to come together with the other side and work on anything. Maybe in the past, maybe in the future, but right now? Republicans won't work with ANY Democrat on ANYTHING in the short term.

Seeing him waffle around trying to be nice to them when they're utter scumbags to him and his family was so obnoxious.

It was refreshing to see him call out this obvious plant a liar, because he is. Much like Ghostpanther was for repeating the lie. Can we all just stop being nice to liars repeating lies meant to spread misinformation?

What lies? Its obvious that Hunter is corrupt, nobody gets 50k/month for doing nothing.
Nothing refreshing about him calling it out, they are going after the one subject he cares about. Money.

[Draco-Onis]

What lies? Its obvious that Hunter is corrupt, nobody gets 50k/month for doing nothing.
Nothing refreshing about him calling it out, they are going after the one subject he cares about. Money.

What he did stinks because its nepotism but neither the GOP or Trump have any right to say that considering their kids are doing the same thing or worse in the case of Trump's kids. But though unfair it's not illegal and happens all the time, it's not what you know but who you know.

[downnola]

Of course you don't. Least stunning plot twist of this entire saga. I would have been stunned if you did.

Man some of you folks parents' did a bang up job instilling any sense of morality, ethics, honestly and consequences when growing up, and here you are as adults and you let wrong doing after wrong doing go unpunished. You concoct outlandish reasons as to why it isn't right to bring down the executioner's ax.

Really. Holy shit. Like what the fuck happened?

I understand the motive. It comes down to appeasing Trump voters. However, you can't appease totalitarians no matter how hard you try. You never give them an inch or they'll take a mile.