Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Masark]

Gone since about the time he declared calling people out for lying was against the forum rules and started infracting people for it.

That was back in November. He hasn't been gone that long.

[Milchshake]

Been gone for a few days now, possibly at least a week.

Omigoosh, it's like Second Christmas! Now I know how hobbits feel.

[Mayhem]

California agriculture is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the “Phase One” US/China trade deal.

In the last 5 years, California nuts export to China has grown from 370 million to 2.5 billion. China is #3 destination for California nut export and it is #2 US agriculture export to China after soybean. That’s despite the Chinese 60% tariff.

How? From the Almond Board.

The only bad thing is that all you see while driving through Central Valley these days are almond farms. Almond is replacing table grapes and sweet grapes in Central Valley. Sun Maid which is the biggest employer in Central Valley complained about losing a lot of their sweet grapes co-op farmers to Almond.

Good news for a state that has no shortage of fresh water... wait a minute.

[Breccia]

Mnuchin says in public that Trump won't lift tariffs on Chinese imports -- that's right, taxes on Americans -- in the upcoming Phase One of the China deal.

Wanna see the video?

I would also suggest this rather lowers the odds China will sign anything meaningful at all. Which was supposed to happen today.

[Dontrike]

Mnuchin says in public that Trump won't lift tariffs on Chinese imports -- that's right, taxes on Americans -- in the upcoming Phase One of the China deal.

Wanna see the video?

I would also suggest this rather lowers the odds China will sign anything meaningful at all. Which was supposed to happen today.

Don't worry, after a few dozen wipes they can get past phase one. If only so many raiders weren't quitting to spend time with their families.

[Belize]

Mnuchin says in public that Trump won't lift tariffs on Chinese imports -- that's right, taxes on Americans -- in the upcoming Phase One of the China deal.

Wanna see the video?

I would also suggest this rather lowers the odds China will sign anything meaningful at all. Which was supposed to happen today.

Soooo... They're lifting the currency manipulator label, and get.... Uhhh.... What in return?

[Dontrike]

Soooo... They're lifting the currency manipulator label, and get.... Uhhh.... What in return?

So Trump can go "Best DEEL ever!!" on twitter for an eternity.

[Draco-Onis]

Soooo... They're lifting the currency manipulator label, and get.... Uhhh.... What in return?

A pretty photo Op for Trump's campaign.

[Mormolyce]

In related news, I just noticed a great darkness has been lifted from /politics.

I have no idea how that situation went on so long.

- - - Updated - - -

Soooo... They're lifting the currency manipulator label, and get.... Uhhh.... What in return?

Same thing they got for agreeing to meet the North Koreans, and capitulating on US war games in South Korea.

[Breccia]

Soooo... They're lifting the currency manipulator label, and get.... Uhhh.... What in return?

Trump claims they will buy double to quintuple the ag products they bought before.

No, really. He said that.

So rather than do the whole talking to myself, strings of all-caps laughing, or a YouTube video of me wiping my ass with a printout of that statement, I'll just post an article written by actual experts. It was written within a couple hours of Trump's statement, because dismantling what Trump said is now so laughably easy I beat it on LFR on Monday.

The United States and China announced a "Phase One" deal that would prevent an immediate escalation of the trade war between the two largest global economies on Friday.

It would, for the time being, cancel the $160 billion in tariffs that President Trump was slated to kick in on Dec. 15 on a range of electronics and toys.

"Whoa whoa whoa! You said --"

Yes, I quoted that Dec 13th source. That video I just posted? Today. Gee. Who'd have guessed Trump's foreign policy was going in random directions? Or, he lied. Pick one. Neither trait is redeeming.

"Huh. Oh, and that's one thing you said you wouldn't do."

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said the Chinese had agreed to buy $50 billion of American agricultural goods as part of the trade agreement. The Chinese government hasn't confirmed it though and avoided giving firm figures in its announcement.

"I think they'll hit $50 billion," Trump said. "They've already stepped it up."

But there's one big reason to be skeptical of that figure: China has never come anywhere close to buying US farm goods at that amount.

It would be double the historic rate of the China's purchases of US farm goods, given that China at its peak only bought $25.9 billion of American agricultural products in 2012, according to Labor Department data illustrated in the graph below.

That's right: Trump said China would double its peak imports. After, you know, TPP and stuff. They bought under $10 billion last year.

If I had to guess, I'd guess China said "lol no" and that's why Trump changed his mind and said "more taxes on Americans until China finally learns their lesson!" China has yet to publicly say they will suddenly double their peak imports. And, in fact, this headline, which you'll note is the South China Morning Post:

Trump’s US$50 billion China farm deal ‘not possible’ after trade war market shift

China has never confirmed this figure and has pushed back on committing to any fixed number, stating repeatedly that it would only buy in accordance with market conditions. Agricultural analysts have said that even if China agreed to such a massive purchase, it would be extremely difficult to make it work in reality.

China imported US$137 billion in agricultural goods in 2018, but it has never bought more than US$25.9 billion from the United States, which it did in 2012. That figure shrank to US$9.2 billion last year, as tariffs weighed heavily on the bilateral farm trade.

“There seems to be a disconnect between the political and economic realities here,” said Nick Marro, trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Hong Kong. “China has made real efforts to diversify its meat sourcing in recent months, signing export deals with France and Brazil. From the US too, diversification has been the order of the day. So in theory while state purchasers could buy a huge amount to make up that US$50 billion, there’s even a question of whether the US could meet the demand.”

HAHAHHAHA Trump said China would buy more than the US could even provide HAHAHAHAHA and that's not even talking about flooding HAHAHAHAHA

"That's two things you said you wouldn't do."

I admit, it's possible I missed China saying "we will buy well over what the market will bear" over the holiday season. Please point out where they did if you can find it. Until then, "thing Trump says is basically impossible" is being charitable. "Trump made shit up" is far more likely.

Quite frankly, there are plenty of reasons to curb-stomp Trump's laughable claims with the steel-toed facts. Besides what's listed above, soybean prices tanked and China found perfectly good ones elsewhere, so even buying the same amount wouldn't be the same dollars. Also, they lost a lot of pigs -- so yes, they might want to buy more pork and chicken, but see above, there are multiple places they've been doing that -- so they need less pig food. And if Buffy the Vampire Slayer taught me anything, it's that nearly every adult in China is lactose intolerant, so don't expect them to suddenly make up the gap there. Sorry, US's largest milk producers Trump forced into bankruptcy.

But most importantly, trust. Trust is like fine china, yes that joke took me a while, beautiful once you have it, but far more easily broken than fixed. China doesn't trust the US, or more accurately, China doesn't trust trade with the US will be stable while Trump is in charge. Why would they? Look at the last couple years.

So to answer your question: Trump will probably get some small token in return that he can point to and shrill "See? SEE! I DID THAT!" but it won't be back to pre-Trump levels, because he's still levying taxes on Americans and slowing trade, and it's nowhere near what he promised, because that's impossible. In the last few months expectations on tariffs have gone from "back to pre-Trump" to "some will be reduced" to "that video Breccia just posted". That was a span of three months, during which Trump backtracked on his word -- and yes, continued elevated taxes on the American people, highest tax increase ever levied on US -- either because Trump does that with everyone all the time, or because he knew China would buy what the market will bear, not some magical unicorn number he pulled out of his bloated flabby orange ass. And the reason why details of this Phase One are hard to find, is because Team Trump knows full well that releasing them will show how lame-ass, limp-dick, and IMPOTUS of a result this glorified photo-op is, while farmers continue to go bankrup -- farm debt rose to a record-setting level last year, despite getting record-level help at the cost of US taxpayers.

Wisconsin saw 48 Chapter 12 filings over the 12-month period ending in September, followed by Georgia, Nebraska and Kansas, each of which had 37 filings. Minnesota, California, Texas, Iowa, Pennsylvania and New York round out the top 10 states for farm bankruptcies.

Oklahoma experienced the largest increase in farm bankruptcy filings, rising from two filings last year to 17 this year. All regions of the U.S. saw an increase in filings, with the largest jumps in the Northwest ( up by 74%) and West (up by 65%).

Wow, that map looks a lot closer to the 2016 election map than you might have guessed.

Planting season starts soon. American farmers are going to sow us what they believe. Are they going to say "Well I trust Trump at his word, so I will spend what little money I have left and/or borrow even more on top of my increasing debt to plant far more than I ever have before, with utmost confidence that China will buy everything I sold years ago and also a bunch more, therefore finally seeing a return on my 2016 vote!" We'll find out together. I mean, y'all will. I'm safely in NYState.

And now to go three for three. [Ctrl-P] [Ctrl-P] What the... [Ctrl-P] God dammit, out of magenta. F#*$#ing HP!

[Beefhammer]

Trump claims they will buy double to quintuple the ag products they bought before.

No, really. He said that.

So rather than do the whole talking to myself, strings of all-caps laughing, or a YouTube video of me wiping my ass with a printout of that statement, I'll just post an article written by actual experts. It was written within a couple hours of Trump's statement, because dismantling what Trump said is now so laughably easy I beat it on LFR on Monday.



"Whoa whoa whoa! You said --"

Yes, I quoted that Dec 13th source. That video I just posted? Today. Gee. Who'd have guessed Trump's foreign policy was going in random directions? Or, he lied. Pick one. Neither trait is redeeming.

"Huh. Oh, and that's one thing you said you wouldn't do."



That's right: Trump said China would double its peak imports. After, you know, TPP and stuff. They bought under $10 billion last year.

If I had to guess, I'd guess China said "lol no" and that's why Trump changed his mind and said "more taxes on Americans until China finally learns their lesson!" China has yet to publicly say they will suddenly double their peak imports. And, in fact, this headline, which you'll note is the South China Morning Post:

Trump’s US$50 billion China farm deal ‘not possible’ after trade war market shift



HAHAHHAHA Trump said China would buy more than the US could even provide HAHAHAHAHA and that's not even talking about flooding HAHAHAHAHA

"That's two things you said you wouldn't do."

I admit, it's possible I missed China saying "we will buy well over what the market will bear" over the holiday season. Please point out where they did if you can find it. Until then, "thing Trump says is basically impossible" is being charitable. "Trump made shit up" is far more likely.

Quite frankly, there are plenty of reasons to curb-stomp Trump's laughable claims with the steel-toed facts. Besides what's listed above, soybean prices tanked and China found perfectly good ones elsewhere, so even buying the same amount wouldn't be the same dollars. Also, they lost a lot of pigs -- so yes, they might want to buy more pork and chicken, but see above, there are multiple places they've been doing that -- so they need less pig food. And if Buffy the Vampire Slayer taught me anything, it's that nearly every adult in China is lactose intolerant, so don't expect them to suddenly make up the gap there. Sorry, US's largest milk producers Trump forced into bankruptcy.

But most importantly, trust. Trust is like fine china, yes that joke took me a while, beautiful once you have it, but far more easily broken than fixed. China doesn't trust the US, or more accurately, China doesn't trust trade with the US will be stable while Trump is in charge. Why would they? Look at the last couple years.

So to answer your question: Trump will probably get some small token in return that he can point to and shrill "See? SEE! I DID THAT!" but it won't be back to pre-Trump levels, because he's still levying taxes on Americans and slowing trade, and it's nowhere near what he promised, because that's impossible. In the last few months expectations on tariffs have gone from "back to pre-Trump" to "some will be reduced" to "that video Breccia just posted". That was a span of three months, during which Trump backtracked on his word -- and yes, continued elevated taxes on the American people, highest tax increase ever levied on US -- either because Trump does that with everyone all the time, or because he knew China would buy what the market will bear, not some magical unicorn number he pulled out of his bloated flabby orange ass. And the reason why details of this Phase One are hard to find, is because Team Trump knows full well that releasing them will show how lame-ass, limp-dick, and IMPOTUS of a result this glorified photo-op is, while farmers continue to go bankrup -- farm debt rose to a record-setting level last year, despite getting record-level help at the cost of US taxpayers.





Wow, that map looks a lot closer to the 2016 election map than you might have guessed.

Planting season starts soon. American farmers are going to sow us what they believe. Are they going to say "Well I trust Trump at his word, so I will spend what little money I have left and/or borrow even more on top of my increasing debt to plant far more than I ever have before, with utmost confidence that China will buy everything I sold years ago and also a bunch more, therefore finally seeing a return on my 2016 vote!" We'll find out together. I mean, y'all will. I'm safely in NYState.

And now to go three for three. [Ctrl-P] [Ctrl-P] What the... [Ctrl-P] God dammit, out of magenta. F#*$#ing HP!

Got to love solving a problem to a crisis that was not a crisis until the person who solved it created it in the first place.

[CastletonSnob]

People actually think Trump is a master strategist playing 4D chess.

Imagine unironically thinking that the guy who thought selling steaks at Sharper Image, an electronics store, was a good idea is some kind of chessmaster.

[For_The_Horde]

People actually think Trump is a master strategist playing 4D chess.

Imagine unironically thinking that the guy who thought selling steaks at Sharper Image, an electronics store, was a good idea is some kind of chessmaster.

I know people have made the comparison between Trump and Zapp Brannigan before, but damn it still sticks.

[Edge-]

Donald Trump, surrounded by enemies in Washington, has identified a new foe.

Modern dishwashers.

Yes.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/d...now-apparently

During a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Tuesday night, Trump mentioned he was “approving new dishwashers that give you more water.”

“Anyone have a new dishwasher?” Trump asked the crowd. “I’m sorry for that. I’m sorry for that, it’s worthless.”

“They give you so little water,” he continued. “You ever see it? Air comes out. So little water.”

Trump proceeded to brag about how he was “putting the water back” and promised that “you’re going to have just as much as you’ve ever had.”

“Your dishes are gonna be beautiful,” he said. “I’m sorry that you just bought one of those brand-new pieces of garbage.”

There are quite a few jokes to be made here, but I'll avoid most of them since they're on the cruder and lewder side of things.

[some guy]

Donald Trump, surrounded by enemies in Washington, has identified a new foe.

Modern dishwashers.

Yes.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/d...now-apparently



There are quite a few jokes to be made here, but I'll avoid most of them since they're on the cruder and lewder side of things.

There is just no end to Donnie Dipshit's stupidity.

[Noxx79]

Donald Trump, surrounded by enemies in Washington, has identified a new foe.

Modern dishwashers.

Yes.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/d...now-apparently



There are quite a few jokes to be made here, but I'll avoid most of them since they're on the cruder and lewder side of things.

The odds of trump having used a dishwasher are the same as the odds he’s been to the grocery store.

[Levelfive]

That was back in November. He hasn't been gone that long.

I think Wyrt is referring to this from January 3rd:

You are either lying or uninformed.


You can dispute statements but don't call others liar

[Paranoid Android]

Donald Trump, surrounded by enemies in Washington, has identified a new foe.

Modern dishwashers.

Yes.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/d...now-apparently



There are quite a few jokes to be made here, but I'll avoid most of them since they're on the cruder and lewder side of things.

So Trumpkins you actually follow this idiot? Any person in a leadership role or who wanted to gain your respect and within minutes you should know Trump is not that person.

To go to a rally and hear this funny. Now if you want to give Trump credit and maybe he is some Andy Kaufman character where he is maybe playing a joke in his followers.

[Breccia]

And now, just to make 100% sure we're all on the same page:

Our Ruling

Trump tweeted that he "was the person who saved Pre-Existing Conditions in your healthcare."

The president had nothing to do with the ban on health insurance plans discriminating against people with preexisting conditions. This consumer protection is a core part of the health care law that became law during the Obama presidency. Trump has expressly supported the repeal of this law without offering a replacement that would keep the protection intact.

And to this day, his administration is arguing in court that the law – including this provision – should be undone.

The president’s tweet is not only untrue, but it misrepresents his administration’s efforts to repeal the health care law without offering any replacement that might maintain its core protections. We rate this claim Pants on Fire.

[Rasulis]

Good news for a state that has no shortage of fresh water... wait a minute.

It is good news for a state that produced 80% of global almond crop.

As for the water issue, almonds flavored with wasabi, soy sauce and sea weed are worth all the water in California. All kidding aside, we do have several projects online if only we can get rid of CEQA.

Then there is this study.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

The research, published in the journal Nature Communications, predicts that California will actually get wetter through the end of this century, compared to the last 20 years of last century.

They also found the winter months of December, January and February, when California traditionally gets the bulk of its precipitation, would account for much of the overall increase in precipitation. During those three months, precipitation levels would increase 31.6 percent in northern California, 39.2 percent in central California and 10.6 percent in southern California.

Also, irrigation methods have gone a long way during the 5-year drought with drip irrigation and sensors to monitor soil moisture content. Zaiger Genetics also came out with a new breed of almonds called Independence that requires much less water, easier to harvest, and requires less bees to pollinate. Technically they are self-fertile. Although using bees will increase the crop yield.