The Brexit aftermath thread

[mvaliz]

Really?

From your link many don't mention numbers of employees moving to the EU though do they? Picking one at random that they do boast about we can see UK headquartered RBS expect, not confirmed yet, to move 150 employees to Amsterdam.

Wowzer.

150 out of the 71200 they employ or 0.002% of their employees. What a massive bonus for the EU, I can see why you are so excited. I'm betting their new EU hub will be a great loss maker for them and if they should happen to make a profit there, unlikely, well that'll be diverted back with clever accounting through to their UK HQ.

Is that all you got as a downside to Brexit?

This quote right here basically amounts to someone saying "Well, you're wrong because FUCK YOU!"

[Crispin]

Really?

From your link many don't mention numbers of employees moving to the EU though do they? Picking one at random that they do boast about we can see UK headquartered RBS expect, not confirmed yet, to move 150 employees to Amsterdam.

Wowzer.

150 out of the 71200 they employ or 0.002% of their employees. What a massive bonus for the EU, I can see why you are so excited. I'm betting their new EU hub will be a great loss maker for them and if they should happen to make a profit there, unlikely, well that'll be diverted back with clever accounting through to their UK HQ.

Is that all you got as a downside to Brexit?

Unreal how much you're cherrypicking from that article, let me participate. Morgan Stanely is moving 4-500 bankers out of London. It's not the only bank to move that amount. wowzer!

[dribbles]

This quote right here basically amounts to someone saying "Well, you're wrong because FUCK YOU!"

No I was quoting facts, just like this one.

Britain has extended its lead as the biggest centre in the world for trading foreign currencies and interest rate derivatives, defying fears that the country could lose its status due to Brexit.

The country has even seized a bigger share of the euro-denominated derivatives business, now taking 86pc of all those trades, despite EU authorities arguing these must be traded within the eurozone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...defies-brexit/

Fact. The EU cannot survive right now without access to the City of London and it is all very well them saying we will fudge it and call the UK EU equivalent for ever more. What happens if the UK says "No we are not equivalent. EU access denied."? Both sides must agree equivalence and it is not a given that the UK will do so for the EU.

The EU can't have its cake and eat it, as it will soon find out as the UK leaves and regards it as a 3rd country...

[Huehuecoyotl]

No I was quoting facts, just like this one.

Britain has extended its lead as the biggest centre in the world for trading foreign currencies and interest rate derivatives, defying fears that the country could lose its status due to Brexit.

The country has even seized a bigger share of the euro-denominated derivatives business, now taking 86pc of all those trades, despite EU authorities arguing these must be traded within the eurozone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...defies-brexit/

Fact. The EU cannot survive right now without access to the City of London and it is all very well them saying we will fudge it and call the UK EU equivalent for ever more. What happens if the UK says "No we are not equivalent. EU access denied."? Both sides must agree equivalence and it is not a given that the UK will do so for the EU.

The EU can't have its cake and eat it, as it will soon find out as the UK leaves and regards it as a 3rd country...

For the millionth time we try and get through something denser than lead.

We haven't left yet. Surely you must understand that? We haven't left. We won't even have left once the 31 January goes by, not properly. We are still effectively going to be in the EU until the end of the year (at least). Once we have left, we won't be able to provide these financial services to the EU, unless they change their rules. Have you seen anything in the last 3 years to suggest they are going to do that for us? Because I sure as fuck haven't.

You are correct that the need for those services won't go away. And those companies won't be able to provide those services from their London offices. So either they just shrug and say "never mind, we won't do that anymore" or they up sticks and move to mainland Europe where they will be able to do them just fine. Which do you think they will do? Bearing in mind that we are talking about £204bn of business a year.

Sadly I know what your answer will be. And however many times you keep saying it, it won't make it true.

Dear god, I just read some of the comments on that Torygraph article. It's like I've disturbed an entire hive of dribbles. I feel tainted just by association.

[mvaliz]

ON a side-note, just read that BlowJo just forbade Scottland to allow it to vote to leave the UK.

Great to see double-standards at work! "What's good for me is right and just, but don't you DARE do the same to me!" >_<

You can say all the bad shit about the EU that you want - but nobody in the EU forbade your country the vote to leave the EU >.>

[Kallisto]

ON a side-note, just read that BlowJo just forbade Scottland to allow it to vote to leave the UK.

Great to see double-standards at work! "What's good for me is right and just, but don't you DARE do the same to me!" >_<

You can say all the bad shit about the EU that you want - but nobody in the EU forbade your country the vote to leave the EU >.>

It'll be something something once in a generation with Scottish independence vote forgetting two promises were made if Scotland voted against leaving the UK.

1) Even more devolution
2) The only guarantee they'd remain in the EU for the lifetime of voters in the referendum

Both of which were broken within 2 years.

[Tulipmantra]

ON a side-note, just read that BlowJo just forbade Scottland to allow it to vote to leave the UK.

Great to see double-standards at work! "What's good for me is right and just, but don't you DARE do the same to me!" >_<

You can say all the bad shit about the EU that you want - but nobody in the EU forbade your country the vote to leave the EU >.>

The EU is however supporting the Spanish government's opposition to Catalonian independence, and opposes separatist movements in general (that is why).

Boris Johnson is a twat, but I don't have much sympathy with the Scots or the SNP. They had a vote very recently on Independence, and there has to be a reasonable statute of limitations on these things.

The Scottish attitude to independence is very annoying from the perspective of the rest of the UK. Their stance seems to be that they want to use the threat of independence to leverage a good deal from themselves, which they already have in terms of expenditure. But they don't actually want full independence. So you get successive parliamentary votes for the SNP and lots of independence talk but when it comes down to it they won't actually do it-they just want a better deal.

Additionally the SNP adopts a socialist position in Westminster, which fools a lot of people into thinking they are a social democratic party, and represent an alternative to conservative austerity. But their proposals for an independent Scotland show austerity that would have made David Cameron blush.
In practice the SNP has secured countless victories for the Tories by forcing British unionists elsewhere into voting Tory when they wouldn't otherwise.

There are many reasons to dislike and distrust Boris Johnson. This isn't one of them. There isn't really any easy solution to this problem, and the SNP are not heroes just because they are nominally pro-eu.

I have a solution: a majority of seats go SNP in the next election and they get kicked out, no referendum. Then we put barbed wire and dogs across the border and put some battleships in the North Sea. I doubt it would be popular.

[Mayhem]

The EU is however supporting the Spanish government's opposition to Catalonian independence, and opposes separatist movements in general (that is why).

I'll just ignore the rest of your nonsense post but do show a source for that.

[Mormolyce]

Is that all you got as a downside to Brexit?

Brexit will have soon cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together

Brexit may soon cost the UK more than its combined total of payments to the European Union budget over the past 47 years, Bloomberg Economics found.
Bloomberg said the cost of the UK’s vote to leave the EU had already reached £130 billion.
A further £70 billion is likely to be added by the end of 2020, the economist Dan Hanson found.
Business confidence and investment in the UK has dipped significantly since the 2016 vote.


Brexit is likely to have cost the UK more than £200 billion in lost economic growth by the end of this year – a figure that almost eclipses the total amount the UK has paid toward the European Union budget over the past 47 years.

According to research by Bloomberg Economics, the cost of the UK’s vote to leave has already reached £130 billion, with a further £70 billion likely to be added by the end of 2020.

The analysis, by the economist Dan Hanson, found that business uncertainty had caused the UK’s economic growth to lag behind that of other G7 countries since the 2016 vote.

That means the British economy is 3% smaller than it might have been if the UK had not voted to leave the EU.

Figures from the House of Commons Library put the UK’s total projected contribution to the EU budget from 1973 to 2020 at £215 billion after adjusting for inflation.

That means the combined cost of Brexit since 2016 is likely to soon eclipse the total cost of the EU’s budget payments, which were a central part of the Leave campaign’s case for Brexit in the first place.

After Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election victory in December, the UK is set to leave the EU on January 31. But business confidence and investment has dipped, and annualized economic growth has fallen to about 1% from 2%.

“As the UK comes to terms with its new trading relationship with the EU and grapples with the productivity challenge that has hindered growth since the financial crisis, the annual cost of Brexit is likely to keep increasing,” Hanson said.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/b...s-to-eu-2020-1

Will literally cost more than EU membership has ever cost by the end of this year, and Brexit hasn't even happened yet...

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Boris Johnson is a twat, but I don't have much sympathy with the Scots or the SNP. They had a vote very recently on Independence, and there has to be a reasonable statute of limitations on these things.

Completely disagree, the situation has radically changed.

That's like saying "we voted to take the road on the left, we can't have another vote on it so soon!" as you round the bend and see an unfinished bridge leading over a fucking canyon.

- - - Updated - - -

You say that like it is a good thing. It was the one thing I was actually looking forward to about Brexit.

Dude, bankers leaving Britain just means the banks aren't quartering themselves there, ie you get none of the benefits.

The super-rich that own the banks probably didn't live in Britain in the first place. They can fuck you just as hard after Brexit, you just get less of the crumbs off their plate.

[Tulipmantra]

Completely disagree, the situation has radically changed.

That's like saying "we voted to take the road on the left, we can't have another vote on it so soon!" as you round the bend and see an unfinished bridge leading over a fucking canyon.

This logic was used to try and overturn Brexit. It was a weak and counter-productive argument that noticeably failed despite a general move towards pro-eu sentiment. You had a vote, you have to abide by it. If people are going to start up making reasons to ignore a democratic mandate then that is something the right will definitely take advantage of.

- - - Updated - - -

Dude, bankers leaving Britain just means the banks aren't quartering themselves there, ie you get none of the benefits.

The super-rich that own the banks probably didn't live in Britain in the first place. They can fuck you just as hard after Brexit, you just get less of the crumbs off their plate.

What benefits am I getting from the banks being here?

[Mormolyce]

This logic was used to try and overturn Brexit. It was a weak and counter-productive argument that noticeably failed despite a general move towards pro-eu sentiment. You had a vote, you have to abide by it.

That's idiotic and undemocratic. We don't have one election at the start of the universe and never another one. Democracy is a series of regular elections. Why would a referendum be any different? Of course the public is entitled to change its mind when it becomes clear the situation has changed. Only a moron would think otherwise.

[Tulipmantra]

That's idiotic and undemocratic. We don't have one election at the start of the universe and never another one. Democracy is a series of regular elections. Why would a referendum be any different? Of course the public is entitled to change its mind when it becomes clear the situation has changed. Only a moron would think otherwise.

There is a constitutionally agreed set of rules for the timetable around elections. Otherwise you get a scenario where Sanders or Warren win a landslide election and then a month later another one is called because the Republicans have decided the public were brainwashed by crazy socialist nonsense. You people don't seem to have thought through how terrible the implications what you are arguing about are for democracy in general. Brexit is important: it is not more important than everything.

The "facts have changed" argument is fatuous in the extreme. Governments frequently act in ways the public didn't expect ("new information") and fall behind in the polls. It would be completely unworkable to have an election every time that happened.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Completely disagree, the situation has radically changed.

That's like saying "we voted to take the road on the left, we can't have another vote on it so soon!" as you round the bend and see an unfinished bridge leading over a fucking canyon.

Yes, absolutely this.

It's farcical to suggest that the Scottish Independence ref "once in a generation" argument is valid given the enormity of the Brexit decision.

Personally, for many reasons, I'd like to see the Scots stay but they cannot be denied the opportunity to hold another ref for a "generation". That's utterly ridiculous.

But they shouldn't rush it. IMO SNP and Sturgeon are probably playing the long game anyway. They wouldn't actually want a second ref now. Give it five years and some of the effects of Brexit to kick in, then that'll be the time to push for it. In the meantime they'll just do enough to keep it being discussed.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Yes, absolutely this.

It's farcical to suggest that the Scottish Independence ref "once in a generation" argument is valid given the enormity of the Brexit decision.

Personally, for many reasons, I'd like to see the Scots stay but they cannot be denied the opportunity to hold another ref for a "generation". That's utterly ridiculous.

But they shouldn't rush it. IMO SNP and Sturgeon are probably playing the long game anyway. They wouldn't actually want a second ref now. Give it five years and some of the effects of Brexit to kick in, then that'll be the time to push for it. In the meantime they'll just do enough to keep it being discussed.

They're probably concerned that if they leave it too long the rest of the UK will be pushing to rejoin as well. So they'll miss the window to get a positive result in the second independence ref. That's assuming we've actually left by then of course. The way these planks have managed the first stage of the process, it wouldn't surprise me to see us still in "transition" when we get the next GE.

[zealo]

They're probably concerned that if they leave it too long the rest of the UK will be pushing to rejoin as well. So they'll miss the window to get a positive result in the second independence ref. That's assuming we've actually left by then of course. The way these planks have managed the first stage of the process, it wouldn't surprise me to see us still in "transition" when we get the next GE.

Boris as of the election last year has the votes in HoC to force a no extension exit to the transistion period by the end of this year.

I wouldn't bet on them not taking that plunge if it comes to it.

[Kronik85]

They're probably concerned that if they leave it too long the rest of the UK will be pushing to rejoin as well. So they'll miss the window to get a positive result in the second independence ref. That's assuming we've actually left by then of course. The way these planks have managed the first stage of the process, it wouldn't surprise me to see us still in "transition" when we get the next GE.

Depends on the time frame. Labour won't touch rejoining the EU for at least a decade, probably 2 and by then fuck knows what other issues we will be facing. But hey if Labour want to lose 5 in a row, push the EU issue again.

Truth is that the longer this goes on for the stronger the SNP position will get and there is no rush other than to be visibly pushing for a another indyref with their fingers crossed that Parliament ignores to push the narrative that Scotland is being ignored.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Truth is that the longer this goes on for the stronger the SNP position will get and there is no rush other than to be visibly pushing for a another indyref with their fingers crossed that Parliament ignores to push the narrative that Scotland is being ignored.

Yes. That's why Sturgeon, having raised the issue, will now shut up about it for a while. Backburner

[Tulipmantra]

Yes, absolutely this.

It's farcical to suggest that the Scottish Independence ref "once in a generation" argument is valid given the enormity of the Brexit decision.

Personally, for many reasons, I'd like to see the Scots stay but they cannot be denied the opportunity to hold another ref for a "generation". That's utterly ridiculous.

You people really seem to have a problem with the concept of democracy. You respect a democratic mandate whether you like the result or not, or one day you'll get someone in charge who doesn't like the decision YOU voted for that has a mandate. You are giving the green light to all kinds of tyranny pushing this reasoning.

[Gorsameth]

Boris as of the election last year has the votes in HoC to force a no extension exit to the transistion period by the end of this year.

I wouldn't bet on them not taking that plunge if it comes to it.

From what I understand the current Bill they are discussing for leaving at the end of January explicitly rules out the possibility of extending past the end of 2020.

[Tulipmantra]

From what I understand the current Bill they are discussing for leaving at the end of January explicitly rules out the possibility of extending past the end of 2020.

I wouldn't wipe my arse with that Bill. If Boris perceives some advantage in eating his own words he will do it whoever's bloodied corpse he has to walk over.